This is the archived brief for November 11, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Bitcoin on November 11, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Nov 11, 12:50 AM ET · price at release $73,774Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 12:30 AM ET, Bitcoin traded at $73,774, down 1.4% in 24 hours: Tuesday's hot US inflation print (CPI +0.4% m/m versus +0.3% expected) knocked the price to $72,727, its lowest since Aug 20, and while the US slept the Asian session held it in a $73,200⁠–⁠74,000 band.

The base case for the next 24 hours is a $72,700⁠–⁠75,200 range (45%): Polymarket's median for tomorrow is $73,848, the 200-day average at $73,191 has held so far, and today is Veterans Day with no US data and the bond market closed.
The risk of a pullback toward $70,000 (33%) remains: markets price a Fed hike on Dec 9, ETFs bled for a fourth day (-$95 million) and retail accounts are 74.7% long.

Price when the brief was released

$73,774

Nov 11, 12:50 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 11, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case

Sideways

$72,700–$75,200

45%

33%

22%

Resistance

$74,500
$75,200
$76,700

Support

$73,200
$72,700
$72,000

Sideways · 45%

$72,700–$75,200

Polymarket's median for 12:00 PM ET on Nov 12 is $73,848 with an interquartile range of $72,582⁠–⁠75,239, max pain for today's and tomorrow's expiries is $74,500, and DVOL at 39.6 implies a move of about ±$1,530. It is Veterans Day in the US: the bond market is closed and there is no data, so yields, the main driver, are switched off for a day. The 200-day average at $73,191 and Tuesday's low at $72,727 hold below, while the 50-week average at $75,204 and Strategy's cost basis at $75,456 cap the upside; ETF outflows halved.

Pullback · 33%

$70,000–$72,700

The market is still digesting the hot CPI: a December Fed hike is priced at 85⁠–⁠90%, odds of a 50 bp move have risen to 11⁠–⁠15%, and the 2-year yields 4.73%. ETFs have bled for four days, stablecoins are draining, whales trimmed holdings, and retail added to longs on the dip (74.7%) with positive funding and open interest not flushed, which is fuel for another long squeeze. A hold below the 200-day at $73,191 and the $72,727 low in thin holiday trading would open the way to $70,000⁠–⁠72,000; 21Shares sees a $69,000 target.

Breakout · 22%

$75,200–$77,500

Fear (29), an RSI of 34 near oversold, a market temperature of 28/100 and the two-week fractal (4 of 6 up, median +9.8%) mark a typical zone for a technical bounce; Santiment sees retail pessimism at a "boiling point". Asia and US futures are rising after CoreWeave's report, and ETF outflows have nearly dried up. A move back above $75,200 (the 50-week average and the 24-hour high) would open the way to the short-term holder cost basis at $75,877, Friday's max pain at $76,500 and the EMA200 at $76,737; above $77,500 within a day is unlikely without a turn in flows.

What to watch today

Today, 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC): 2,829 BTC expire on Deribit, max pain $74,500
Today, 9:30 AM ET: US stocks open on Veterans Day with the bond market closed and liquidity thin
Whether the 200-day average at $73,191 and Tuesday's low at $72,727 hold
Wednesday night: spot BTC ETF flows for the day, a fifth outflow or a reversal
7:00 PM ET today (00:00 UTC): the daily candle close above or below $73,000
Headlines from the Strait of Hormuz and on US–Iran talks, via oil and yields
Later this week: Nov 13 brings PPI at 8:30 AM ET, a 33,361 BTC expiry and the difficulty retarget

This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

Overnight, as of 12:30 AM ET, Bitcoin traded at $73,774: down 1.4% in 24 hours, 8.4% over 7 days and 9.9% over 30 days.Binance
On Tuesday, after the hot US inflation print, the price fell as low as $72,727, its weakest level since Aug 20; the 24-hour high was $74,996.Binance
While the US slept, the Asian session kept the price in a tight $73,209⁠–⁠74,035 band: no bounce after the sell-off, but no new lows either.Binance

5 more facts

Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 17,652 BTC (about $1.30 billion).Binance
Bitcoin's market cap is about $1.48 trillion and the total crypto market $2.48 trillion (down 4.0% in 24 hours); BTC dominance is 59.8%, ETH 10.2%.CoinGecko
The price sits 41.5% below the $126,080 record of Oct 6, 2025, and is down 30% over one year.CoinGecko
Altcoins fell harder: as of 8:18 PM ET Tuesday, Ether was at $2,043 (down 4.0% in 24 hours), XRP at $1.05 (down 4.2%) and Solana at $82.83 (down 4.1%, a nearly three-month low).Tradingview
The Coinbase premium over Binance is essentially zero (+0.004%, or $2.60): US buyers were neither pressing nor supporting the price overnight.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

Daily RSI(14) is 34.0: close to oversold (the threshold is 30) but not there yet.Binance
MACD at -1,892 is below its signal line at -1,512, with the histogram at -381: downside momentum has been building for a second day.Binance
The price is below the EMA20 ($77,413), EMA50 ($78,895) and EMA200 ($76,737), all three acting as overhead resistance; the last EMA cross was a golden one on Sep 17.Binance

8 more facts

The 200-day simple moving average is $73,191 and the Mayer Multiple 1.01: the price pierced it to $72,727 on Tuesday, but the daily candle closed back above at $73,796.Binance
The 50-week moving average is $75,204 and the price is 1.9% below it; 21Shares calls it a key support that now has to be reclaimed.The Block
Matt Mena of 21Shares: a sustained break below $73,000 opens the way to $69,000 (the 2021 peak), while a rebound targets $78,000.The Block
Lewis Huang of Bitget: rising yields and a stronger dollar add to selling pressure, with the 200-day average near $73,200 as the key support.The Block
Levels: support at $73,200 (200-day), $72,700 (Tuesday's low) and $72,000; resistance at $74,500 (max pain of the nearest expiries), $75,000⁠–⁠75,200 (24-hour high and 50-week average) and $76,700 (EMA200).Binance
The 200-week moving average is $67,868, with the price 8.7% above it; Pi Cycle is at 0.50, far from overheating.CoinLab
Fractals: the two-week stretch (down 9.1%) resembles 6 past episodes, 4 of which were followed by gains (median +9.8%); the 50-day window is also 4 of 6 up, but with a median of only +1.6%. This is statistics, not a promise.CoinLab
Polymarket puts the median price for 12:00 PM ET on Nov 12 at $73,848 (interquartile range $72,582⁠–⁠75,239) and gives 51.5% odds that it will be above the level at the time of this brief; our base-case range of $72,700⁠–⁠75,200 almost matches that corridor.Polymarket

3Derivatives

Crypto liquidations in the 24 hours after CPI totaled about $723 million, $570 million of it longs; about 115,600 traders were hit. Bitcoin accounted for $203 million ($175 million in longs).Crypto
Other CoinGlass snapshots put liquidations between $632 million and $715 million: below the $1 billion of Nov 9, but twice the prior day's total.Tradingview
Binance's liquidation stream shows about $44.7 million of BTC longs and $10.2 million of shorts wiped out in 24 hours (a lower-bound estimate): four times more longs than shorts.CoinLab

5 more facts

Binance BTC futures open interest is 100,409 BTC (about $7.40 billion): flat on the day and down 2.9% on the week, so leverage was not flushed on the drop.Binance
Funding is about 0.01% per 8 hours on all four venues (Binance 0.0098%, Bybit 0.0093%, OKX and Hyperliquid 0.01%), roughly 11% annualized: longs are still paying, versus a 30-day Binance average of 0.0066%.Binance
The Binance long/short account ratio is 2.96 (74.7% long), and 2.23 for top traders: retail bought the dip and is even more crowded long than a day ago (73.5%).Binance
The taker buy/sell ratio on Binance futures is 0.93: aggressive sellers outnumber buyers.Binance
The CoinLab squeeze index is -7 (versus -31 a day ago): the tilt toward a long flush has mostly faded as part of the leverage is already gone, leaving no strong signal either way.CoinLab

4Options

Today at 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC), 2,829 BTC expire on Deribit with max pain at $74,500 and a put/call ratio of 0.79; another 2,408 BTC with the same max pain expire tomorrow.Deribit
The nearest large expiry is Friday, Nov 13: 33,361 BTC, max pain $76,500, put/call 0.58.Deribit
The monthly expiry on Nov 27 holds 80,050 BTC with max pain at $79,000; the December one (Dec 25) holds 141,778 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit

4 more facts

The DVOL volatility index is 39.6 (39.7 a week ago): the sell-off did not lift the price of protection, and options imply a daily move of about ±2.1%, or ±$1,530.Deribit
The put/call ratio across all open interest is 0.75, with open interest at 349,739 BTC ($25.8 billion); the Nov 27 skew is -4.2 points, meaning puts cost more than calls.Deribit
On Nov 10, put volume (22,336 BTC) exceeded call volume (20,920 BTC); the most traded contract was the $74,000 put for Nov 13 (about 3,563 BTC), followed by the $72,000 put for Nov 27.Cointribune
Bitfinex analysts expect a $72,350⁠–⁠79,400 range into Friday's expiry; the zero-gamma point is near $76,000, and below it market-maker hedging amplifies moves rather than damping them.Cointribune

5ETFs and institutions

Spot BTC ETFs lost $95 million on Nov 10, a fourth straight day of outflows but half the prior day's figure: IBIT -$78.2 million, FBTC -$36.8 million, with MSBT the only fund taking in money (+$20.0 million).Tokenpost
Cumulative net inflows into spot BTC ETFs stand at $55.40 billion and assets at $92.82 billion (about 6.3% of Bitcoin's market cap); daily turnover was $2.06 billion.Tokenpost
ETH ETFs lost just $1.3 million on Nov 10 versus $184.5 million a day earlier, also a fourth day of outflows; fund assets total $11.64 billion.Tokenpost

5 more facts

According to Lookonchain, 14 public companies have sold 108,247 BTC (about $8.08 billion) in 2026; more than half came from miners MARA (40,581 BTC at an average $74,446) and Riot (20,264 BTC).CoinDesk
Strategy holds 850,364 BTC at an average cost of $75,456 (it bought 1,036 BTC on Nov 2⁠–⁠8): the price at the time of this brief was 2.2% below its cost basis; MSTR shares fell 3.6% on Nov 10.The Block
181 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of supply) worth about $96 billion; after Strategy, the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One (43,514) and Strive (43,153).CoinGecko
Forward Industries grew its Solana treasury to 8.7 million SOL even as the token hit a nearly three-month low; Zcash and Grayscale's fund tracking it lost about 12% on the day.The Block
Paul Howard of Wincent: without a shift in monetary policy, regulation or institutional flows, Bitcoin is more likely to drift lower than to return to $100,000.The Block

6Sentiment and on-chain

The Fear and Greed Index is 29 (Fear): 32 a day ago, 34 a week ago, 69 a month ago; the one-year average is 31.alternative.me
CoinLab's market temperature is 28 out of 100: across eight cycle metrics the market is in the cold zone, where historically buying was more common than selling.CoinLab
MVRV is 1.42 (as of Nov 2), the 33rd percentile of its history: holders are sitting on an average profit of about 42%.Coinmetrics

6 more facts

The short-term holder cost basis is about $75,877 (as of Nov 4): the price is 2.8% below it, so recent buyers are underwater and sell into bounces.Bgeometrics
Analyst Ali Martinez estimates whales cut their holdings by more than 34,000 BTC (about $2.6 billion) over the past week; this reflects balance changes, not confirmed exchange sales.Crypto
Santiment: the ratio of bullish to bearish Bitcoin comments is 0.82 and retail fear is at a "boiling point"; such pessimism has often preceded relief rallies.Tradingview
Stablecoin supply is $292.8 billion: down 1.6% on the week and 4.9% (-$15.0 billion) over 30 days, as money keeps leaving crypto.Defillama
Polymarket for November: a drop to $72,500 is priced at 80.5%, to $70,000 at 54.5%, to $67,500 at 30.5%; a touch of $80,000 at 33.5% (40.5% a day ago).Polymarket
November has historically been Bitcoin's best month, with an average gain of 34.4% and a median of 8.6% since 2010; this year the month is negative so far.The Block

7Mining

Hashrate is about 959 EH/s and difficulty 148.4 T.mempool.space
The difficulty retarget is due around Nov 13 (in 352 blocks, the epoch is 83% complete) with an estimate of -7.0%: miners are switching machines off after the price drop; the previous retarget was +5.5%.mempool.space
Mining-rig maker Canaan's Q3 revenue plunged 90% to $14.5 million: equipment sales fell 96% to $4.8 million and the operating loss widened to $42.9 million.The Block

3 more facts

Bitdeer reported record Q3 revenue, but its net loss widened to $125.5 million; the company is among this year's public sellers of BTC.The Block
Hashprice was $32.86 per PH/s per day as of Nov 2, below the 30-day average of $37.49; Bitcoin has fallen another 8% since then, taking miner revenue with it.Hashrateindex
Fees are at the floor: 1 sat/vB for both fast and one-hour confirmation; block height is 975,392, with 74,608 blocks to the halving (expected April 2028).mempool.space

8Macro

October US CPI, released Tuesday, came in above forecast: +0.4% month over month versus a +0.3% consensus (+0.6% in September), with core at +0.3% versus +0.2%; there is no year-over-year figure because of the 2025 shutdown.CoinDesk
The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,520.93 on Tuesday, the Nasdaq 0.74% to 25,065.87 and the Dow 0.30% to 52,231.89; the indexes recovered most of their intraday losses into the close.CNBC
The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 17 bp to 4.73% on Tuesday and the 10-year rose 10 bp to 4.98%, after trading above 5% intraday.Treasury

9 more facts

The Fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% and the next meeting is Dec 8⁠–⁠9: CME FedWatch shows 85⁠–⁠90% odds of a 25 bp hike and up to 15% for 50 bp, with a hold priced out; a week ago a hold was above 30%.CoinDesk
Polymarket for December: +25 bp at 85.5%, +50 bp or more at 11% (7.2% before CPI), no change at 3.6%; for January the market is split, with a pause at 52.5% and another hike at 47.5%.Polymarket
Fed Governor Christopher Waller favors a December hike and is open to a 50 bp move if inflation runs hot; Quinn Thompson of Lekker Capital argues that over a multi-week to multi-month horizon this hawkishness will prove a mistake.CoinDesk
Nvidia fell another 5% to $168.91 on Tuesday, leaving its market cap near $4.07 trillion, the lowest since late March; Trump said the FBI is investigating CEO Jensen Huang's ties.CoinDesk
CoreWeave beat estimates after the close: Q3 revenue was $3.66 billion versus a $3.54 billion forecast and full-year guidance was raised to $13⁠–⁠13.3 billion; shares rose 6% after hours.CoinDesk
Asia was mixed on Wednesday morning: the Nikkei was up 0.8% at midday (around 60,940, a third day of gains), the Kospi up 1.7% and Taiwan's Taiex up 2.1% on chip demand, while the Hang Seng fell 0.9%; US index futures edged higher.Investinglive
Oil fell on Tuesday: Brent lost 1.3% to $91.36 and WTI settled at $85.47, with Brent briefly below $90 for the first time since August; on Wednesday morning WTI bounced to about $86.50 on reports of tankers hit by mines in the Strait of Hormuz.Euronews
Gold is at $4,063 an ounce (up 0.8% after dropping below $4,100 the day before), the DXY dollar index at 102.2 (up 0.7% over 5 days) and the VIX at 19.5.Yahoo Finance
Today is Veterans Day in the US: the bond market is closed, stocks trade as usual from 9:30 AM ET and there is no major data. Ahead: PPI on Nov 13, the Fed minutes on Nov 18 and PCE on Nov 25.Investinglive

9Regulation and events

After meeting Qatar's prime minister, Trump cited "positive momentum" toward ending the war with Iran but is keeping the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for now; Tehran says no talks are under way.Investing.com
Two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz: the risk to oil supply persists despite the truce talk.Business-standard
In a Nov 5 no-action letter, the CFTC allowed derivatives clearing organizations to use trust companies, not only banks, for daily settlement; lawyers warn it could be withdrawn if the agency's leadership changes.Bloomingbit

6 more facts

Democrats won majorities in both chambers of Congress in the Nov 3 midterms: oversight of SEC and CFTC crypto policy may tighten from January; the CFTC currently has one commissioner out of five.Bloomingbit
The SEC registered Plume affiliate Kimber Digital Securities as a broker-dealer and FINRA approved its membership: the firm gains access to the DTC depository and targets a launch in the first half of 2027.CoinDesk
Visa added the Monad blockchain to its stablecoin settlement network options, while Moody's and Chainlink are testing cross-chain distribution of credit ratings.The Block
Anthropic is preparing its IPO: Bloomberg reports shares are being marketed at $70⁠–⁠78 and the deal could raise about $90 billion; the company earlier called the terms circulated among bankers inaccurate.CoinDesk
Nov 10 marked five years since the previous cycle's peak ($69,000 in 2021): Bitcoin trades just 7% above that level.CoinDesk
From Nov 12, the European Banking Authority (EBA) takes over supervision of the USDC issuer's reserves and liquidity; Nvidia reports earnings in about a week.CoinDesk

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast

Base case came true

80%

the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range

At least one scenario right

96%

the close landed inside one of the three ranges

Day	Morning price	Close	Base case	Came true	Hit
November 10, 2026 · overnight	$74,806	$73,736 (-1.4%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
November 10, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$73,980	$73,888 (-0.7%)	Sideways, 42%	Sideways	yes
November 9, 2026 · overnight	$74,578	$74,786 (+0.0%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
November 9, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$74,772	$74,396 (-0.7%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
November 8, 2026 · overnight	$75,878	$74,818 (-1.4%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
November 8, 2026 · morning	$76,064	$74,920 (-1.4%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
November 7, 2026 · overnight	$76,023	$75,866 (-0.1%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
November 7, 2026 · morning	$75,902	$75,980 (+0.1%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
November 6, 2026 · overnight	$75,491	$75,907 (+0.2%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
November 6, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$75,650	$75,900 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
November 5, 2026 · overnight	$80,490	$75,765 (-5.9%)	Sideways, 48%	Pullback	no
November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$79,673	$76,040 (-4.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Pullback	no
November 4, 2026 · overnight	$77,409	$80,520 (+4.0%)	Sideways, 45%	Breakout	no
November 4, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$78,447	$79,662 (+1.7%)	Sideways, 47%	Breakout	no
November 3, 2026 · overnight	$76,719	$77,390 (+0.6%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
November 3, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$77,676	$78,298 (+1.1%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
November 2, 2026 · overnight	$78,370	$76,944 (-1.9%)	Sideways, 52%	Pullback	no
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$78,200	$77,428 (-0.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
November 1, 2026 · morning	$77,980	$77,808 (-0.1%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 30, 2026 · overnight	$78,686	$77,193 (-1.4%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$77,334	$77,619 (+0.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 29, 2026 · overnight	$80,389	$78,280 (-2.5%)	Sideways, 48%	Pullback	no
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,118	$77,382 (-3.5%)	Sideways, 47%	Pullback	no
October 28, 2026 · overnight	$80,947	$80,256 (-0.9%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,831	$80,170 (-1.4%)	Sideways, 52%	Sideways	yes
October 27, 2026 · overnight	$79,789	$80,994 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · overnight	$80,172	$79,759 (-0.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,516	$79,910 (-0.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · overnight	$80,824	$80,134 (-1.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · morning	$80,350	$80,416 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes

Brief archive

← Previous brief: November 10, 2026 · morning, pre-market Next brief: November 11, 2026 · morning, pre-market →