Sign in
ENRU
Market cap$2.63T-1.9%BTC dominance59.3%Fear & Greed37BTC$77,815-0.2%ETH$2,288+0.9%BNB$703.58-1.6%XRP$1.25+0.0%SOL$94.22-0.8%TRX$0.3186+2.2%HYPE$85.93-2.2%ZEC$1,261+1.8%DOGE$0.0753-0.5%XMR$603.77+0.4%
This is the archived brief for November 2, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Monday, November 2, 2026

Bitcoin on November 2, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Nov 2, 12:43 AM ET · price at release $78,370Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 12:40 AM ET, Bitcoin traded near $78,400: up 0.7% over 24 hours within a $77,620⁠–⁠78,880 range and down 2.2% on the week.

  • While the US slept, it shrugged off the first day of reopened Binance withdrawals — $3.64 billion left the exchange after the hack — and a lower open across Asia.
  • The base case for the next 24 hours is sideways at $77,000⁠–⁠79,800 (52%): leverage is flushed, funding is low, and Polymarket's median for Tuesday, $78,395, matches the report price.
  • Today's catalysts: Strategy's purchase disclosure around 8 AM ET, the 9:30 AM open and the ISM manufacturing index at 10 AM ET, with Nasdaq futures up 0.6⁠–⁠0.9%.
Price when the brief was released
$78,370
Nov 2, 12:43 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 2, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$77,000–$79,800
52%
52%
26%
22%
Resistance
$78,880
$80,300
$81,970
Support
$77,620
$76,660
$75,600
Sideways · 52%
$77,000–$79,800

Leverage is flushed: 24-hour liquidations were $86 million versus $1.5 billion on Friday, open interest is falling, funding is below baseline and the squeeze index reads 0. Polymarket's Tuesday median of $78,395 and its $76,900⁠–⁠79,700 interquartile range match the band, and DVOL at 38.5 prices a ±$1,580 move. Max pain at $78,000 for today's expiry anchors price, and the first day of Binance withdrawals ($3.64 billion out, 2% of assets) passed without a crash. The big events — Tuesday's election and Friday's jobs report — fall outside the window, so there's little reason to leave the range before them.

Pullback · 26%
$74,500–$77,000

Asia opened lower, the Kospi lost 16% in October, and AI-spending jitters could return if Apple's results after the close or the 10 AM ET ISM disappoint. Spot ETFs bled $643 million on Friday, stablecoin supply is shrinking ($9.2 billion in a month) and the Coinbase premium is negative — there's no new demand. If Strategy reports no purchase, the market will read it as a negative. A break below $77,000 opens the 200-day EMA at $76,660, the weekly low at $76,326 and the $75,600⁠–⁠75,830 zone (50-week average and short-term holder cost basis); 70% of Binance accounts are still long, so there's fuel for liquidations.

Breakout · 22%
$79,800–$82,000

Nasdaq-100 futures rose as much as 0.9% overnight, oil is falling for a second day and yields are off their October peaks — if the tech rebound holds after the 9:30 AM ET open, Bitcoin will follow. Saylor hinted at a buy, and a Strategy filing could be the spark. Shorts are already being squeezed: 77% of overnight Bitcoin liquidations were shorts. First resistance is the 24-hour high at $78,880, then the 20/50-day EMA band near $80,300 and the $80,000 max pain for the Nov 6 expiry (put/call 0.34), where calls cluster; holding above $80,300 opens last week's high at $81,970.

What to watch today
  • Deribit options expiry on 3,682 BTC (max pain $78,000) — today at 3 AM ET (08:00 UTC)
  • Strategy's 8-K on purchases for Oct 26 – Nov 1 — expected around 8 AM ET
  • US market open at 9:30 AM ET; October ISM manufacturing at 10 AM ET (forecast 54.7)
  • Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks on Monday
  • Apple earnings after the close, around 4:30 PM ET
  • Daily candle close at 7 PM ET (00:00 UTC); US midterm elections on Tuesday, Nov 3
  • Net flows out of Binance and the exchange's updated proof-of-reserves report
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • Overnight, as of 12:40 AM ET, Bitcoin traded near $78,400: up 0.7% over 24 hours and down 2.2% on the week and 7.5% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $77,620⁠–⁠78,880, the weekly range $76,326⁠–⁠81,971.Binance
  • The weekly candle closed at $78,354 at 7 PM ET Sunday: the week finished down about 2%, but with a long lower wick from the Oct 30 low of $76,326 — the post-hack panic was bought.Binance
  • Asia's session stayed in a tight band of roughly $1,260: Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 7,869 BTC (about $615 million), above weekend levels but well short of a normal weekday.Binance
4 more facts
  • Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.574 trillion with 60.0% dominance; the whole crypto market was $2.617 trillion. Price is 37.9% below the $126,080 all-time high (Oct 6, 2025) and down 29.2% year over year.CoinGecko
  • Altcoins as of 12:40 AM ET: ETH $2,291 (+1.2% in 24 hours), BNB $710 (+0.7%), SOL $94.9 (−0.6%), XRP $1.25 (+0.1%), HYPE $87.7 (flat) — the market is idling with no rebound leader.CoinGecko
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance was −0.04% ($78,226 vs $78,257 after the USDT adjustment): no US spot buyer showed up overnight, demand is neutral.Coinbase
  • CNBC counts an average 8.3% first-day drop for Bitcoin after exchange hacks; this time, four days after the attack, price is 1.2% above the Oct 30 close of $77,446 — a much milder reaction than history suggests.CNBC

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) was 39.5 versus 37.6 a day earlier: the gauge is slowly climbing out of the bottom third of its range but is still far from a neutral 50.Binance
  • MACD at −1,121 sits below its signal line at −741, with the histogram at −381 versus −476 yesterday — downside momentum is fading for the first time in four days.Binance
  • The 20-day EMA ($80,289) and 50-day EMA ($80,304) have merged into a band near $80,300 — the week's key resistance, 2.5% above price; the 200-day EMA at $76,661 held Friday's dip, and the Sept 14 golden cross remains intact.Binance
5 more facts
  • Support is stacked below the 200-day EMA: the 50-week average at $75,606, the short-term holder cost basis at $75,834 (as of Oct 26) and the 200-day simple average at $73,197; the 200-week average at $67,472 is 16.2% below price.Coinmetrics
  • The Mayer Multiple is 1.07 (53rd historical percentile) and Pi Cycle reads 0.50 against an overheating trigger of 1.0: cycle metrics put the market mid-range — no froth, no bottom.CoinLab
  • Fractals as of Nov 2: the two-week stretch (−5.1%) has 6 historical look-alikes, only 2 of which kept rising, with a median −4.0% over the next two weeks; on the 50-day window, 4 of 6 analogs went higher with a median +11.8% — the short horizon looks weaker than the long one.CoinLab
  • Polymarket for 12 PM ET Tuesday: median $78,395, interquartile range $76,898⁠–⁠79,711, 50.5% odds of trading above the current price. Our base-case sideways band of $77,000⁠–⁠79,800 nearly matches that corridor.Polymarket
  • Polymarket's November-wide odds: touching $80,000 — 83.5%, $82,500 — 60.5%, $85,000 — 43%; on the downside, $75,000 — 65.5%, $72,500 — 45.5%, $70,000 — 30.5%. Traders expect a wide range, not a trend.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Market-wide liquidations over 24 hours as of Sunday, Nov 1, came to $85.6 million: longs $52.9 million, shorts $32.7 million; in Bitcoin, $9.7 million of shorts were closed versus $3.9 million of longs. Friday saw $1.5 billion.Chaincatcher
  • BTC, ETH and SOL perpetuals logged about $59 million of liquidations in the 24 hours to 11 PM ET Sunday, and 77% of Bitcoin's $29 million were shorts: the overnight bounce to $78,900 squeezed sellers.Coinotag
  • Our Binance BTC liquidation feed for 24 hours: 541 forced closures, shorts $10.8 million versus longs $3.9 million; the largest was a 15 BTC short ($1.18 million) at $78,376.CoinLab
4 more facts
  • Open interest in Binance's BTC/USDT perpetual was 95,304 BTC ($7.47 billion), down 0.7% on the day and 1.1% on the week: traders aren't adding leverage even with withdrawals back on.Binance
  • Eight-hour funding: Binance 0.0065%, OKX 0.0053%, Bybit 0.0025%, Hyperliquid 0.01%; Binance's 30-day average is 0.0045%. Longs aren't overpaying, there's no skew.Bybit
  • The long/short account ratio on Binance was 2.30 (70% long) versus 2.57 yesterday, top traders at 1.67; takers are buying slightly more (1.05) — the crowd is trimming longs bit by bit.Binance
  • The futures mark price of $78,333 sits below the $78,360 index — slight backwardation of −0.03%; our squeeze index reads 0 (neutral) with 5% component agreement: neither overheating nor capitulation.CoinLab

4Options

  • Bitcoin options open interest on Deribit was 300,337 BTC ($23.5 billion) with a put/call ratio of 0.66: calls outnumber puts roughly 1.5 to 1.Deribit
  • DVOL was 38.5 versus 38.8 a week ago: the market prices a daily move of about ±2%, or ±$1,580 from the report price — a $76,800⁠–⁠79,950 band for the day.Deribit
  • Today at 3 AM ET (08:00 UTC), 3,682 BTC expire with max pain at $78,000 and a put/call of 0.99 — the report price sits almost on that level, so expiry pressure is minimal.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The week's main expiry is Nov 6: 27,187 BTC, max pain $80,000, put/call 0.34 — calls dominate and would pull price toward $80,000 on any good news.Deribit
  • The monthly expiry on Nov 27 holds 49,551 BTC (max pain $80,000) and the quarterly on Dec 25 holds 136,343 BTC (max pain $75,000): the big series pin price in a $75,000⁠–⁠80,000 corridor.Deribit
  • The 25-delta skew on the November series was −4.3 points in favor of puts versus −5.0 yesterday: demand for downside protection eased slightly, no panic in options.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3 million on Friday, Oct 30 — the largest daily outflow since June 25; the week closed at −$202.6 million. No new flow data until Monday evening.The Block
  • Spot Bitcoin ETF assets total $98.1 billion, so Friday's outflow was under 1% of the funds: a reaction to the hack headlines, not an institutional exodus.The Block
  • Ether ETFs lost $155.9 million on Oct 30 — the most since Oct 7 — and $431.5 million for the week; outflows from ether funds are running longer and deeper than from Bitcoin funds.The Block
4 more facts
  • Michael Saylor posted his purchase tracker on Sunday captioned "We found room for even more orange" — usually a sign of a Monday buy disclosure; Strategy holds 848,517 BTC and skipped last week.Cryptotimes
  • Strategy's average cost is $75,446, leaving about a 4% cushion at the report price; in 10 days MSCI decides whether to keep the company in its indexes.Yahoo Finance
  • 181 public companies hold 1,312,578 BTC ($102.7 billion, 6.25% of supply): Strategy 848,517, Metaplanet 44,000, Twenty One Capital 43,514, Strive 43,000, MARA 35,577.CoinGecko
  • Stablecoin market cap was $299.5 billion: −1.5% on the week and −3.0% (−$9.2 billion) over 30 days — no fresh dollars are entering crypto.Defillama

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index read 37 ("Fear") versus 34 yesterday, 50 a week ago and 67 a month ago; the one-year average is 31 — sentiment has improved three days running.alternative.me
  • After withdrawals reopened on Nov 1, $4.65 billion left Binance against $1.01 billion in deposits: net outflows of $3.64 billion between 1 AM and 10:30 AM ET, or 2.1% of the exchange's $171 billion in assets.CNBC
  • The outflow was contained: all 15 first-phase networks were live by 7:36 AM ET, and price didn't fall. Changpeng Zhao wrote that "98% choose to stay!".CNBC
4 more facts
  • MVRV on Nov 1 was 1.45 (35th historical percentile): the average holder is up 45%, so there's no mass of holders forced to sell at a loss.Coinmetrics
  • CoinLab's market temperature is 31 out of 100 versus 30 yesterday: MVRV, Mayer, the 200-week average, Pi Cycle and funding sit in the cold zone; distance from the high is the warmest component.CoinLab
  • Glassnode: long-term holders sit on roughly 4 million BTC bought at $85,000⁠–⁠118,000 in 2025 — they'll start selling to break even as price nears $85,000 (late-October data).Glassnode
  • Circle has frozen more than $1.1 billion in USDC tied to the hack, up from $800 million on Friday; together with Tether's 1.57 billion frozen USDT, that's half of the $6.3 billion stolen.CNBC

7Mining

  • Hashrate is 1,047 EH/s and difficulty 148.36 T: network power is holding near records despite Bitcoin's 7% drop in October.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is estimated for Nov 13, in 1,529 blocks; 24% into the epoch it's tracking −1.6% — blocks are arriving slightly slower.mempool.space
  • The Oct 29 adjustment added 5.54%: combined with the price drop, it cut miner revenue per terahash by more than 10% over the month.mempool.space
3 more facts
  • Fees are 1 sat/vB for fast confirmation: the mempool is empty even with mass withdrawals from Binance, and miner income is almost entirely the 3.125 BTC subsidy.mempool.space
  • Block height is 974,215, with 75,785 blocks to the halving — estimated for April 11, 2028.mempool.space
  • Public miners hold reserves: MARA's 35,577 BTC rank fifth among companies; if margins keep shrinking, their selling would be the first sign of stress.CoinGecko

8Macro

  • Overnight, S&P 500 futures were up 0.4⁠–⁠0.5%, Nasdaq-100 futures 0.6⁠–⁠0.9% and Dow futures about 0.4% after Friday's selloff: Wall Street is positioning for a tech rebound.CNBC
  • Asia opened lower: Nikkei −0.5%, Kospi −0.8% after a 16% slide in October, MSCI Asia ex-Japan −0.4% — worries over AI spending payoffs haven't gone away.Freemalaysiatoday
  • Friday on Wall Street: S&P 500 at 7,580 (−1.8%), Nasdaq at 25,437 (−2.9%), VIX at 19.4 (+12.9%); the Nasdaq lost almost 7% in October — Bitcoin has tracked tech for two months.Yahoo Finance
5 more facts
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.95% in Asian trading (October peak 5.36%), the 2-year 4.61%; DXY 101.8 (−0.1% on the week) — rates stay high, but pressure has eased.Freemalaysiatoday
  • Markets price about a 72% chance of a 25 bp Fed hike in December and roughly 55 bp of total tightening, down from 70 bp a month ago; Polymarket gives 69.5% for a hike at the Dec 8⁠–⁠9 meeting and 27.5% for a hold.Polymarket
  • Oil fell for a second day: Brent −1.5% to $111.7, WTI −1.7% to $102.4 after a 13.6% gain in October; gold rose 0.6% to $3,898 after a 6.8% monthly drop.Freemalaysiatoday
  • Today at 10 AM ET: the October ISM manufacturing index, forecast 54.7 versus 54.5; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks, and Apple reports after the close.Trading Economics
  • Later this week: ISM services Wednesday (forecast about 54.8), hawks Hammack and Logan speak Thursday and Friday, and the October jobs report lands Friday at 8:30 AM ET with a forecast of +55,000.FXStreet

9Regulation and events

  • Binance has now covered about 95% of the stolen funds, up from 90% on Saturday; the remaining 5% is illiquid tokens, and an updated proof-of-reserves report is expected in early November.CNBC
  • The FBI attributed the $6.3 billion Binance hack to North Korea's TraderTraitor group; the loot is being laundered through ether, and fresh transfers from the attacker's addresses remain a market risk.CNBC
  • Tuesday, Nov 3, is Election Day: all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up; analysts expect Democrats to take the House, while the Senate is a toss-up.CNBC
3 more facts
  • The CLARITY crypto market structure bill stalled in the Senate in September, and work will likely restart with the new Congress in January.Thehill
  • Regulators are moving without Congress: the SEC is taking comments on crypto custody rules until Dec 7, the CFTC on its retail leveraged trading request until Dec 14.Bakerbotts
  • Calendar: today 3 AM ET — 3,682 BTC options expire, around 8 AM ET — possible Strategy disclosure, 9:30 AM ET — US open; Nov 6 — 27,187 BTC expiry and the jobs report; Nov 13 — difficulty adjustment.Deribit

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
31
Base case came true
84%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
100%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 1, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 16, 2026$82,202$81,616 (-0.8%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 15, 2026$81,108$82,246 (+0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 14, 2026$83,610$81,682 (-1.8%) Sideways, 45%Pullbackno
October 13, 2026$83,728$83,169 (+1.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 12, 2026$84,017$81,850 (-2.3%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
October 11, 2026$83,078$83,773 (+0.9%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 10, 2026$82,669$82,988 (+0.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 9, 2026$82,374$82,636 (+1.1%) Sideways, 48%Sidewaysyes
October 8, 2026$82,927$81,754 (-1.9%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 7, 2026$84,194$83,322 (-2.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight