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Market cap$2.69T-0.9%BTC dominance59.5%Fear & Greed50BTC$79,748+1.7%ETH$2,389+3.1%BNB$710.65+1.6%XRP$1.31+2.0%SOL$95.35+2.8%TRX$0.3179-0.3%ZEC$1,314+2.1%HYPE$81.52-3.3%XMR$637.69-0.7%DOGE$0.0759+1.5%
This is the archived brief for November 5, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Thursday, November 5, 2026

Bitcoin on November 5, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Nov 5, 12:45 AM ET · price at release $80,490Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 12:43 AM ET, Bitcoin traded near $80,490, up 3.5% over 24 hours within a $77,746⁠–⁠81,196 range: after a $75,736 low on the midterm results, it recovered 7% on Wednesday and closed the day above $80,000 as nearly $1 billion in shorts were burned, while the Asian session stayed calm around $80,500.

  • Base case for the next 24 hours is sideways trade at $79,000⁠–⁠82,000 (48%): Wall Street had its best post-midterm day in 44 years, ETFs returned to inflows ($74.6 million), and the dollar and oil are falling, but the short-squeeze fuel is spent, funding is back at 0.01%, and Polymarket's median for tomorrow sits right at $80,400.
Price when the brief was released
$80,490
Nov 5, 12:45 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 5, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$79,000–$82,000
48%
48%
30%
22%
Resistance
$81,200
$82,000
$84,000
Support
$80,000
$79,000
$77,750
Sideways · 48%
$79,000–$82,000

The Asian session held a narrow $80,250⁠–⁠80,900 band with no follow-through: the fuel for the move, $575 million in short liquidations, is spent, funding is back at a baseline 0.01%, and the squeeze index is neutral (47 with 5% agreement). Polymarket's Nov 6 median of $80,422 with a $78,921⁠–⁠81,739 interquartile range and DVOL at 37.8 (a ±$1,600 daily move) closely match the band, while Friday's $79,000 max pain keeps price near current levels. Support below is the 20/50-day EMAs at $80,000⁠–⁠80,160; above, the $81,196 daily high.

Pullback · 30%
$76,500–$79,000

The rally rests on short covering, not new money: stablecoins are down $13 billion for the month, IBIT keeps bleeding ($201 million on Wednesday), and OI rose just 1.4%. The Kospi and Asian chipmakers are falling and Qualcomm dropped 6.2% after hours. If the Nasdaq opens weak at 9:30 AM ET, and jobless claims plus hawkish remarks from Hammack and Logan lift December hike odds above 77%, price could slip back to today's $78,000 max pain and the $77,750 daily low. The two-week fractal shows a −5% median.

Breakout · 22%
$82,000–$84,500

The daily candle closed above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, the MACD histogram turned positive, the Coinbase premium is back to zero, and ETFs returned to inflows. Retail has started shorting the rally (the account long/short ratio fell to 1.39 from 2.31) and skew has narrowed to −1.7, fresh fuel for a squeeze above $81,200. A falling dollar, yields and oil are tailwinds; Polymarket puts an $82,500 touch in November at 79.5%. A break of the daily high would open $82,000 and the $84,000⁠–⁠84,500 zone near the upper Bollinger band.

What to watch today
  • Deribit expiry of 4,747 BTC (max pain $78,000) at 3:00 AM ET today
  • Initial jobless claims, Q3 productivity and unit labor costs at 8:30 AM ET
  • US opening bell at 9:30 AM ET: whether stocks hold the post-election rally after Qualcomm's drop and the Asian chip selloff
  • Remarks from Hammack, Barkin and Logan on Thursday, all three favoring hikes; Logan speaks in the evening ET
  • Spot BTC ETF flows for Thursday, out Thursday evening ET: will inflows stick after Wednesday's $74.6 million
  • Daily candle close at 00:00 UTC (7:00 PM ET): holding above the 50-day EMA at $80,160
  • Friday: 33,189 BTC expiry (max pain $79,000) at 3:00 AM ET and the October jobs report at 8:30 AM ET (forecast +40,000⁠–⁠55,000, unemployment 4.2%)
  • Around Nov 11: MSCI decision on Strategy; final election tallies and first Democratic statements on crypto regulation
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • Bitcoin was trading near $80,490 as of 12:43 AM ET, up 3.5% over 24 hours, up 3.2% over 7 days and down 5.9% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $77,746⁠–⁠81,196.Binance
  • Tuesday night and Wednesday produced a 7.2% swing: after a seven-week low of $75,736 on the midterm results, Bitcoin was back above $80,000 by the 9:30 AM ET opening bell and set a high of $81,196 in the afternoon.The Block
  • Overnight, while the US slept, price held a tight $80,250⁠–⁠80,900 band around $80,500: the Asian session brought neither follow-through nor a pullback.Binance
5 more facts
  • Spot BTC/USDT volume on Binance was 19,491 BTC (about $1.56 billion) over 24 hours versus 13,984 BTC a day earlier: the rally came on 39% heavier turnover, not in a thin market.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.62 trillion with 59.5% dominance; the total crypto market rose 0.9% in 24 hours to $2.71 trillion.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin is 36.2% below its all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025) and down 21.2% year over year.CoinGecko
  • Ether traded at $2,426 as of 12:43 AM ET (+5.7% in 24 hours), outperforming Bitcoin; Solana $96.1 (+3.5%), XRP $1.31 (+2.7%), BNB $714 (+2.2%).Binance
  • The TRUMP memecoin fell 17% on Wednesday and Trump Media stock dropped 24.5%: the market quickly priced in the risk of a Democratic Congress investigating the president's family crypto ventures.The Block

2Technical analysis

  • The Nov 4 daily candle closed at 00:00 UTC (7:00 PM ET) at $80,504 (+3.9%), above the 20-day EMA at $79,994 and the 50-day EMA at $80,160: price is back above both averages that acted as resistance a day earlier.Binance
  • MACD is −898 versus a −910 signal line: the histogram turned positive (+12), and downside momentum has given way to a weak upside one.Binance
  • Daily RSI(14) is 50.5 versus 37.9 a day earlier: the market moved out of weakness into neutral territory, with plenty of room before overbought (70).Binance
5 more facts
  • Lower supports remain far below: the 200-day EMA at $76,842, the 50-week average at $75,648 and the 200-day SMA at $73,231; the Sept 16 golden cross formally holds.Binance
  • The Bollinger midline at $80,407 is the nearest marker, with the upper band at $84,500; the daily ATR is about $1,950, so a typical daily move is ±2.4%.Cryptonews
  • Nearest resistance: $81,196 (24-hour high), $82,000 and $84,000 (Bollinger band and Oct 20 highs); support: $80,000, $79,000 (max pain for Friday's expiry) and $77,750 (bottom of the 24-hour range).Binance
  • CoinLab fractals diverge by horizon: on the two-week window, six similar stretches show a median of −5.0% afterward, on the 50-day window +3.8%, and on the six-month window +18.9% (five of six up).CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for Nov 6 at 12:00 PM ET is $80,422 with an interquartile range of $78,921⁠–⁠81,739, and odds of finishing above the current price are 49%: the betting market, like our base case, expects range-bound trade around $80,000.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Liquidations across the market totaled about $975 million over 24 hours, $575 million (59%) of it shorts; Bitcoin accounted for $396 million, 76% of which were shorts.Mitrade
  • The sharpest wave was about $378 million in shorts liquidated within one hour after the US open, as price broke $80,000.Crypto
  • The Binance forced-order stream logged by our server showed $90.6 million in liquidated shorts versus $6.6 million in longs over 24 hours (1,278 orders, a lower-bound estimate); the largest was a 143 BTC short ($11.4 million) at $79,998 at 10:04 AM ET.CoinLab
4 more facts
  • Open interest in BTC futures on Binance is 95,764 BTC ($7.70 billion), +1.4% in 24 hours and −0.8% for the week; per Nexo, futures volume rose 27% while OI rose only 3%: the rally ran on short covering, not new leverage.The Block
  • Funding is back to baseline: 0.009% per 8 hours on Binance and 0.01% on Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid (about 11% annualized) versus a 30-day average of 0.005%.Bybit
  • The Binance account long/short ratio fell to 1.39 (58% of accounts long) from 2.31 a day earlier: retail started shorting the rally, while top traders sit at 1.92 in favor of longs; takers are buying slightly more (1.06).Binance
  • The quarterly futures basis is −0.04%, and the CoinLab squeeze index is 47 with only 5% agreement among components: after the shorts were burned, there is no clear skew in risk.CoinLab

4Options

  • Open interest in BTC options on Deribit is 337,535 BTC ($27.1 billion) with an overall put/call of 0.65; the DVOL volatility index is 37.8 versus 37.3 a week ago: the rally came without a jump in implied volatility.Deribit
  • Today at 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC), 4,747 BTC expire with max pain at $78,000 and put/call 1.04, $2,500 below the report price.Deribit
  • The next big expiry is Friday, Nov 6 at 3:00 AM ET: 33,189 BTC (about $2.7 billion) with max pain at $79,000 and put/call 0.33, so calls outnumber puts three to one.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The 25-delta skew for Nov 27 narrowed to −1.7 points from −5.5 a day earlier: puts are getting cheaper as traders drop downside protection, and Wednesday's most-traded contracts were calls.The Block
  • The Nov 27 monthly expiry holds 61,944 BTC with max pain at $80,000, and the Dec 25 quarterly holds 139,214 BTC with max pain at $75,000: the year's largest contract still pulls lower.Deribit
  • Polymarket odds for November: touching $82,500 at 79.5%, $85,000 at 56.5%, $90,000 at 24.5%; to the downside, $77,500 at 69.5% and $75,000 at 46.5%.Polymarket

5ETFs and institutions

  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $74.6 million on Wednesday, Nov 4, breaking a streak of outflows; Thursday's data will arrive Thursday evening ET.Tokenpost
  • The picture is mixed: Fidelity's FBTC took in $237 million, while BlackRock's IBIT, the only fund in the red, lost $201.2 million; cumulative inflows are $65.61 billion for IBIT and $10.42 billion for FBTC.Crypto Briefing
  • Net assets across spot BTC ETFs are $102.26 billion, back above $100 billion as prices rose; from Oct 30 to Nov 3 the funds lost about $1.16 billion.Tokenpost
4 more facts
  • Ether ETFs took in $53 million on Nov 4, ending a seven-day outflow streak, and ether outpaced Bitcoin on the day.Crypto Briefing
  • Strategy and Coinbase shares rose about 6% on Wednesday, Strive 12% and Block 15% after earnings; Strategy's STRC preferred returned to its $100 par for the first time since May, easing new issuance to fund Bitcoin buys.The Block
  • Strategy holds 849,327 BTC at an average of $75,451, 6.7% below the report price; around Nov 11 MSCI will decide whether to keep the company in its indexes, and JPMorgan estimates potential outflows of up to $2.8 billion on removal.247wallst
  • 181 public companies hold 1,314,155 BTC worth $105.6 billion, or 6.26% of supply; behind Strategy are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One Capital (43,514) and Strive (43,124).CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 50 (Neutral) versus 34 a day earlier, 51 a week ago and 73 a month ago; the one-year average is 31.alternative.me
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance, adjusted for the USDT rate, is about zero (−0.001%) after four days at a discount of up to −0.16%: US buyers stopped selling below the rest of the world.Coinbase
  • MVRV as of Nov 2 is 1.42 (33rd percentile historically), the Mayer Multiple 1.10, price is 18.5% above the 200-week average of $67,874, and Pi Cycle is 0.50: CoinLab's market temperature rose to 36 out of 100 from 30 a day earlier.Coinmetrics
3 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis is $75,903 (as of Oct 29): Bitcoin is 6% above it, so recent buyers are back in profit.CoinLab
  • Stablecoin market cap is $296.4 billion, −1.8% for the week and −$13.0 billion (−4.2%) over 30 days: the bounce is running without fresh dollar liquidity.Defillama
  • Per Glassnode, long-term holders cut positions by 248,000 BTC in Q3; CryptoQuant's exchange whale ratio fell to 0.48 on Nov 2 from 0.64 in February, so pressure from large sellers is weaker than in the spring.Yahoo Finance

7Mining

  • Hashrate per mempool.space is 1,031 EH/s, near its all-time high: the late-October price drop did not knock capacity off the network.mempool.space
  • Difficulty is 148.36 T; 1,115 blocks remain until the retarget around Nov 13, which at the current pace would be −2.5%, the first cut after two straight increases (the last was +5.54%).mempool.space
  • Hashprice, by our estimate from mempool.space data, is about $35 per PH/s per day at $80,490, versus $33.18 on Nov 1; CoinShares puts the breakeven at $36⁠–⁠38.Cryptonews
2 more facts
  • Fees are at the floor: 2 sat/vB for fast confirmation, 1 sat/vB within an hour; the rally did not trigger a spike in on-chain activity.mempool.space
  • Block height is 974,629, with 75,371 blocks to the halving, estimated around Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space

8Macro

  • Wednesday on Wall Street closed with a rally: the Dow +3.03% to 53,356, its best post-midterm day in 44 years, the S&P 500 +1.58% to 7,689 and the Nasdaq +1.44% to 25,737; the market read the Democratic sweep of both chambers as removing uncertainty.Cnn
  • Under the surface, sectors rotated: consumer discretionary +4.3%, financials +3.5%, energy −4.7%, tech roughly flat; AI infrastructure and data-center names sold off on expectations of tougher oversight.Substack
  • The ISM services index for October came in at 54.5 versus a 54.8 forecast and 54.9 in September, with new orders down to 55.9 from 59.8: the economy is cooling, but slowly.Substack
5 more facts
  • The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.89⁠–⁠4.90% (−5⁠–⁠6 bp) and the 2-year to 4.58% (−3 bp); the VIX plunged 20% to 16.6, and the dollar index DXY is at 101.24 (−0.8% over five days).Substack
  • Oil collapsed: Brent −8.7% to $94.6 a barrel, a two-month low, after Trump ruled out immediate strikes on Iran amid Qatari mediation; overnight, WTI is near $87 (−1.3%).Gulfnews
  • Gold is at $4,139 an ounce (+1.6% in 24 hours, +2.7% over five days), and silver gained 5.4% on Wednesday: havens are rising alongside risk assets on a falling dollar.Substack
  • Asia split on Thursday: Hang Seng +2.8%, ASX 200 +1.9%, Nikkei −0.5%, while the Kospi fell as much as 4% on a chipmaker selloff (Samsung −5.7%, SK Hynix −7.4%); Qualcomm fell 6.2% after the US close on weak guidance.Euronews
  • Fed: the rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00%, with the next meeting Dec 8⁠–⁠9; CME FedWatch puts a 25 bp hike at 76.9%, Polymarket at 77.5% versus 21.5% for a hold. Logan wants at least two more hikes, Musalem wants tightening "soon.".Polymarket

9Regulation and events

  • Democrats took both chambers of Congress, and analysts call the CLARITY market-structure bill "dead" in its current form: it failed in the Senate on Sept 15 and expires on Jan 3, 2027.CoinDesk
  • Crypto industry PACs spent about $170.5 million on the elections, at least $125.5 million of it on Republicans; more than 70 House Democrats previously voted for CLARITY, so a bipartisan version with investor protections is not ruled out.CoinDesk
  • House Democrats are discussing their own crypto market bill with expanded SEC powers and ethics rules for officials; Republicans call it a "messaging bill.".Kucoin
4 more facts
  • Investigations into Trump's crypto ties, including World Liberty Financial, are expected: Robert Garcia, the likely Oversight Committee chair, publicly told those involved to "lawyer up.".Crypto
  • The SEC and CFTC keep writing rules without Congress, but rules are easier to reverse than statutes; the CFTC's approval of single-stock perpetual futures has already been challenged, with a federal judge questioning whether they are permitted.CNBC
  • After Binance's $6.3 billion hack, Bitwise noted that of the 10 largest hacks in history, Bitcoin was higher 30 days later in five cases and lower in five; Coinbase said it keeps 99% of customer assets in cold storage.The Block
  • Historically, the November after midterms has not helped Bitcoin (−16% in 2022, −36% in 2018), but this time it enters the election above its 200-day average for the first time since 2014.CoinDesk

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
36
Base case came true
81%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
97%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 4, 2026 · overnight$77,409$80,520 (+4.0%) Sideways, 45%Breakoutno
November 3, 2026 · overnight$76,719$77,390 (+0.6%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 3, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,676$78,298 (+1.1%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 2, 2026 · overnight$78,370$76,944 (-1.9%) Sideways, 52%Pullbackno
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,200$77,428 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 1, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 16, 2026$82,202$81,616 (-0.8%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 15, 2026$81,108$82,246 (+0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 14, 2026$83,610$81,682 (-1.8%) Sideways, 45%Pullbackno
October 13, 2026$83,728$83,169 (+1.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 12, 2026$84,017$81,850 (-2.3%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno

Brief archive

November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 5, 2026 · overnightNovember 4, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 4, 2026 · overnightNovember 3, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 3, 2026 · overnightNovember 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight