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Market cap$2.75T-2.2%BTC dominance60.2%Fear & Greed59BTC$82,406+0.4%ETH$2,426+0.3%BNB$725.21+0.4%XRP$1.31+0.9%SOL$105.16+1.1%TRX$0.3305-0.8%HYPE$79.69+0.8%ZEC$1,160+2.6%DOGE$0.0795+0.2%XMR$591.45+1.1%
This is the archived brief for October 18, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Sunday, October 18, 2026

Bitcoin on October 18, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · Oct 18, 1:46 AM ET · price at release $81,746

As of 1:30 AM ET Bitcoin traded at $81,746, +0.2% over 24 hours, after spending Saturday in a narrow $80,820⁠–⁠82,078 range following Friday's 2.15% Nasdaq drop.

  • Base case for Oct 18 is sideways trade at $80,800⁠–⁠82,600 (55%): a thin-liquidity Sunday with the 20-day EMA near $82,600 above and $80,500⁠–⁠80,800 support below.
  • The main risk is a long-heavy market (Binance funding 2.4 times the norm) amid Bitcoin ETF outflows ($229M for the week) and the reopening of stock futures in the evening.
Price when the brief was released
$81,746
Oct 18, 1:46 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 18, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$80,800–$82,600
55%
55%
27%
18%
Resistance
$82,100
$82,600
$84,350
Support
$80,800
$79,800
$78,000
Sideways · 55%
$80,800–$82,600

Thin-liquidity Sunday: spot volume about $614M, today's expiry is small (2,573 BTC, max pain $81,500, right at the price). Price is boxed between the 20-day EMA ($82,600) and the 50-day EMA ($80,516). Polymarket's Oct 19 median is $81,705, interquartile range $80,653⁠–⁠82,960, 49% chance of finishing higher.

Pullback · 27%
$78,500–$80,800

Longs are crowded: 63.6% of accounts are long, Binance funding is 8.6% annualized, the squeeze index is −58 and takers are selling (0.92). The backdrop is risky: Nasdaq −4.5% for the week, VIX at 20, oil around $99⁠–⁠102, Bitcoin ETF outflows for a second straight week. Breaking the $79,800 weekly low opens the way to $78,000, where put spreads are aimed; max pain for the Oct 30 expiry is $79,000.

Breakout · 18%
$82,600–$84,400

Bitcoin held up better than the Nasdaq on Friday, Treasury yields fell 13 bp over the week, and October hike odds dropped to 13⁠–⁠15%. Holding above the 20-day EMA could force shorts to cover and open the $84,352 weekly high; Polymarket gives 54.5% to touching $85,000 in October.

What to watch today
  • Deribit expiry of 2,573 BTC today at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET), max pain $81,500
  • Holding $80,500⁠–⁠80,800 (50-day EMA) and the reaction at the 20-day EMA near $82,600
  • U.S. index futures reopen at 6:00 PM ET Sunday after Friday's 2.15% Nasdaq drop
  • Oil and Middle East headlines
  • Daily candle close at 00:00 UTC (8:00 PM ET)
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded in the morning and never edited: after the daily close it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 1:30 AM ET Bitcoin traded at $81,746: +0.2% over 24 hours in a $80,820⁠–⁠82,078 range, −2.4% for the week and +1.1% over 30 days.Binance
  • The Oct 17 daily candle closed at 00:00 UTC at $81,491 (−0.2%) within $80,820⁠–⁠81,770: Saturday stayed in a narrow corridor with no level breaks.Binance
  • Binance spot volume over 24 hours was 7,525 BTC (about $614M): weekend liquidity is thin, so single large orders move the price more than usual.Binance
6 more facts
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.64 trillion, with 59.5% dominance; Ether's share is 10.7%.CoinGecko
  • Price sits 35.2% below the $126,080 all-time high (Oct 6, 2025); over the year Bitcoin is down 23.3%.CoinGecko
  • The weekly range is $79,800⁠–⁠84,352: the low came on Oct 15, when price briefly slipped under $80,000 after producer inflation data and buyers quickly bought the dip.CoinDesk
  • The Coinbase premium is near zero (+0.006%, about $5): U.S. buyers are neither buying nor selling aggressively over the weekend.Coinbase
  • Stablecoin supply is $306.4 billion: −0.5% for the week and +0.6% (+$1.8B) over 30 days, so little fresh money is entering the market.Defillama
  • As of 1:30 AM ET Ether traded at $2,407 (−0.7% over 24 hours), Solana at $103.4 (−1.3%), XRP at $1.29 (−1.2%): altcoins are weaker than Bitcoin this weekend, ETH/BTC is 0.0294.CoinGecko

2Technical analysis

  • Price sits between the 20-day EMA ($82,602) and the 50-day EMA ($80,516): the upper average has acted as resistance all week, while buyers defended the lower one on Oct 15⁠–⁠16.Binance
  • Long-term supports: the 200-day EMA at $76,092 and the 50-week average at $76,577; the EMA50/EMA200 golden cross of Sep 14 still stands.Binance
  • RSI(14) is 47.3: neutral, neither oversold nor overbought.Binance
6 more facts
  • MACD (30.9) is below its signal line (505.9) with a −475 histogram: short-term downside momentum persists, though the decline has slowed.Binance
  • Nearest resistance is the 24-hour high of $82,078 and the 20-day EMA near $82,600; above that sit the weekly high of $84,352 and the 30-day high of $87,396.Binance
  • The 20-month average, lost in December 2025, stood at $87,165 on Oct 16 according to CryptoQuant; analysts see reclaiming it as a condition for a new rally.Cointelegraph
  • The Mayer Multiple is 1.13 (price 13% above the 200-day average of $72,464), with 22.5% of headroom over the 200-week average of $66,719; Pi Cycle (0.47) is far from a top signal.Coinmetrics
  • CoinLab fractals: after 6 similar two-week stretches (−3.9%) price rose in 4 cases, median +2.6%; on the 50-day window only 1 of 6 rose, median −5.5%, so the signals are mixed.CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for Oct 19 (12:00 PM ET) is $81,705, interquartile range $80,653⁠–⁠82,960, and the chance of finishing above the current price is 49%: bettors expect the same sideways trade as our base case.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Binance funding is 0.0078% per 8 hours (8.6% annualized) versus a 0.0033% 30-day average: longs are paying 2.4 times the norm.Binance
  • Funding is lower elsewhere: Bybit 6.0% annualized, Hyperliquid 5.3%, OKX 2.4%; the long skew is most visible on Binance.Bybit
  • Binance open interest is 93,009 BTC ($7.6B): −0.7% over 24 hours and −1.1% for the week, as leverage slowly leaves the market.Binance
5 more facts
  • 63.6% of accounts are long (long/short 1.75), top traders sit at 1.78, while taker buy/sell is 0.92: positioning is long but aggressive flow is selling.Binance
  • The CoinLab squeeze index is −58 (−48 a day earlier): a crowd leaning long amid weak demand raises the risk of a long-liquidation cascade on a drop.CoinLab
  • On the Binance BTCUSDT feed, $10.2M of longs and $1.7M of shorts were liquidated on Oct 17; since midnight UTC on Oct 18 about $2.4M of shorts were wiped out on the bounce to $82,078.Binance
  • The Binance perpetual trades at a small discount to the index ($81,711 vs $81,745): there is no speculative froth in the price.Binance
  • Market-wide, open interest rose 2% to $142.2 billion on Oct 16 as futures volume fell 20% to $200 billion; liquidations dropped to $311M from nearly $1 billion a day earlier.CoinDesk

4Options

  • Today at 08:00 UTC 2,573 BTC expire on Deribit with max pain at $81,500 and put/call 0.94 — a small expiry almost exactly at the price.Deribit
  • Another 2,449 BTC expire on Oct 19 (max pain $82,000) and 14,773 BTC on Oct 23 (max pain $82,000, put/call 1.23).Deribit
  • The month's main expiry is Oct 30 at 08:00 UTC: 149,598 BTC (about $12.2 billion), max pain $79,000, put/call 0.52; it may pull price lower into the date.Deribit
4 more facts
  • The DVOL volatility index is 37.9 versus 37.0 a week ago: options price in a calm but slightly more nervous market.Deribit
  • Total Deribit options open interest is 391,210 BTC (about $31.9 billion), put/call 0.60: calls still dominate.Deribit
  • On Oct 16 the $80,000 put was the most traded option on Deribit, and a large put spread targeting a drop to $78,000 went through Derive.CoinDesk
  • The Dec 25 expiry holds 130,949 BTC with max pain at $75,000: longer-dated options money is not betting on a quick rally.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $82.4M on Oct 16: BlackRock's IBIT −$71.8M, Fidelity's FBTC −$10.6M; the funds do not trade on weekends.SoSoValue
  • For the week of Oct 12⁠–⁠16 Bitcoin ETFs lost about $229M: inflows came only on Oct 13 (+$175.6M) and Oct 15 (+$5.1M), the worst day was Oct 14 (−$261.5M).SoSoValue
  • Cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows stand at $56.9 billion, assets at $104.3 billion (6.35% of Bitcoin's market cap), holding 1.276 million BTC.SoSoValue
6 more facts
  • Ether ETFs lost $69.7M on Oct 16 (all from ETHA), about $320M for the week; SOL ETFs shed $12.7M on Oct 16.SoSoValue
  • Strategy bought 250 BTC at ~$86,194 between Oct 5 and 11 and repurchased $192M of STRC preferred; it holds 848,250 BTC at an average cost of ~$75,444.Strategy
  • Strategy shareholders vote on Oct 28 on daily STRC dividends (starting Nov 1 if approved); STRC closed at $99.53 on Oct 15, just below par.Cointelegraph
  • On Oct 16 MSCI approved rules that can exclude companies whose main purpose is holding investments from its indexes, putting Strategy and Metaplanet at risk. MSTR fell as much as 9.2% that day.CoinDesk
  • 180 public companies hold about 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of supply); after Strategy the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC) and Twenty One Capital (43,514 BTC).CoinGecko
  • On Oct 16 Strive upsized its SATS preferred offering to 7 million shares at $90, raising $630M gross.CoinDesk

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 53 (Neutral): 55 yesterday, 61 a week ago, 56 a month ago; the one-year average is 30.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature is 35 out of 100 (36 yesterday): cycle metrics put the market in the cool zone, far from overheating.CoinLab
  • MVRV was 1.51 on Oct 17 (40th historical percentile): holders are up 51% on average, mid-range rather than a profit-taking zone.Coinmetrics
4 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis is $74,443 (as of Oct 11): price is ~10% above it, so recent buyers are in profit and not forced to sell.Coinmetrics
  • CryptoQuant's bull-bear cycle indicator rose to 0.186 from 0.042 in August — the market is gradually leaving the bear phase (data as of Oct 16).Cointelegraph
  • CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index rose to 60 from 50 on Oct 16 as Celestia jumped 16%: speculative demand is rotating into select altcoins.CoinDesk
  • Polymarket October odds: touching $85,000 — 54.5%, $90,000 — 17.5%; on the downside, $80,000 at 72.5% and $77,500 at 40.5%.Polymarket

7Mining

  • Hashrate is about 1,020 EH/s; difficulty after the Oct 16 retarget (+5.9%) is 140.6 T.mempool.space
  • The next retarget is expected around Oct 30: 1,777 blocks left, with a preliminary estimate of −2.3% as blocks are currently coming slower than every 10 minutes.mempool.space
  • Fees are at the floor — 1 sat/vB for both fast and within-the-hour confirmation; block height is 971,951.mempool.space
3 more facts
  • The halving is 78,049 blocks away, roughly Apr 12, 2028.mempool.space
  • On Oct 16 shares of miners and AI hosts Hut 8, IREN, CleanSpark and Cipher Mining fell about 6% following CoreWeave (−8%, −20% for the week): the mining sector now trades alongside AI stocks.CoinDesk
  • Google said on Oct 16 that its Willow chip cut errors 40-fold when preparing quantum "magic states"; it does not directly bring wallet-breaking closer, but quantum risk to old coins is back on the agenda.CoinDesk

8Macro

  • The Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 26,140 on Friday, Oct 16 (−4.5% for the week), the S&P 500 lost 1.1% to 7,659: an AI-stock selloff amid rising oil.Yahoo Finance
  • The VIX fear gauge jumped 21% to 20.0, +35% over five days; Monday, Oct 19, marks the 39th anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday crash.CoinDesk
  • WTI crude closed near $99 on Oct 16 (+1.1%, +7.8% over 5 days) after touching $101.7 intraday on reports of an attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline.CoinDesk
6 more facts
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.09% on Oct 16 (−1 bp on the day, −13 bp over 5 days), the 2-year 4.74% (−3 bp).Treasury
  • The DXY dollar index is 101.84 (−0.16% on the day, −0.36% over 5 days), gold $4,181 (+0.3%).Yahoo Finance
  • The Fed funds rate is 3.50⁠–⁠3.75%; the next meeting is Oct 27⁠–⁠28. Polymarket gives 86.5% to a hold and 13.5% to a 25 bp hike.Polymarket
  • For the Dec 8⁠–⁠9 meeting Polymarket gives 74.5% to a 25 bp hike and 21.5% to a pause: the market expects tightening toward year-end.Polymarket
  • CME FedWatch odds of an October hike fell to ~15% on Oct 16 from nearly 45% after the CPI data; Kevin Warsh gave no signal on Fed plans at the IMF meetings.CoinDesk
  • U.S. producer prices posted their biggest gain in four years on Oct 15 — the day Bitcoin dipped below $80,000.Cointelegraph

9Regulation and events

  • Bitget stops new trades for users from Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan from 3:00 AM ET on Oct 18; they must close positions and withdraw by 3:00 AM ET on Oct 21, after which the exchange closes what remains.Cointelegraph
  • Turkey confirmed the detention of HEX founder Richard Heart: police seized $7.15M and six cold wallets.The Block
  • Nine companies including CoreWeave, Broadcom and Verizon objected to tokenized copies of their shares trading on OKXICE; tokenized stocks were worth about $3.5 billion as of Oct 15.The Block
4 more facts
  • A U.S. judge rejected Gemini's and the CFTC's request to void a $5M settlement.CoinDesk
  • Earnings week: Netflix on Oct 20, Tesla and Meta on Oct 21, Intel on Oct 22; they will decide whether the tech selloff that Bitcoin is tracking continues.Fffinstill
  • The XRP Ledger gets an upgrade with eight fixes on Oct 23; the lending amendment fell short of votes.Github
  • Calendar: Fed meeting Oct 27⁠–⁠28, Strategy shareholder vote Oct 28, large options expiry Oct 30, U.S. midterm elections Nov 3.Federal Reserve

Forecast accuracy

Every morning the scenarios are recorded; after the UTC daily close we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
13
Base case came true
77%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
100%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 16, 2026$82,202$81,616 (-0.8%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 15, 2026$81,108$82,246 (+0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 14, 2026$83,610$81,682 (-1.8%) Sideways, 45%Pullbackno
October 13, 2026$83,728$83,169 (+1.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 12, 2026$84,017$81,850 (-2.3%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
October 11, 2026$83,078$83,773 (+0.9%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 10, 2026$82,669$82,988 (+0.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 9, 2026$82,374$82,636 (+1.1%) Sideways, 48%Sidewaysyes
October 8, 2026$82,927$81,754 (-1.9%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 7, 2026$84,194$83,322 (-2.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 6, 2026$85,674$85,550 (-0.2%) Sideways, 60%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

October 19, 2026October 18, 2026October 17, 2026October 16, 2026October 15, 2026October 14, 2026October 13, 2026October 12, 2026October 11, 2026October 10, 2026October 9, 2026October 8, 2026October 7, 2026October 6, 2026