BTC$80,847
ETH$2,429
BNB$717.70
XRP$1.33
SOL$97.37
TRX$0.3195
ZEC$1,345
HYPE$87.71
DOGE$0.0779
XMR$643.941Price and market
- As of 8:45 AM ET, Bitcoin traded at around $78,450: +1.0% over 24 hours, −3.6% over 7 days and −8.5% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $75,736–78,718, with the high set during the European session this morning.Binance
- The overnight low of $75,736 (10:10 PM ET Tuesday, the lowest since Sept 17) came as Democrats were declared winners of the House; by the European open the price was back above $77,500, and by 4:34 AM ET it reached $78,663 (+1.9%), according to Investing.com.Investing.com
- The European session was quiet: from 3:00 AM to 8:45 AM ET, Binance five-minute candles stayed inside $78,100–78,720, and on the ADP and trade balance releases at 8:15–8:30 AM ET the price only swung between $78,290 and $78,530.Binance
5 more facts
- Spot BTC/USDT volume on Binance over 24 hours was 15,005 BTC (about $1.16B) versus 13,984 BTC earlier today: the overnight sell-off and the bounce added turnover, but without a spike.Binance
- Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.58 trillion with 59.4% dominance; the total crypto market lost 1.7% over 24 hours to $2.64 trillion: Bitcoin was up on the day while the market as a whole was down, meaning altcoins kept lagging.CoinGecko
- Bitcoin was 37.8% below its all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025) and down 24.6% year over year.CoinGecko
- Altcoins as of 4:34 AM ET: Ether $2,331 (+2.6% over 24 hours), XRP +3.3%, Solana and Cardano +1.4% each, BNB +0.7%, Dogecoin +1.3%; the TRUMP memecoin lost 4% on the election results. Over the week Solana is −9.5%, BNB −6.5%, and HYPE is the only one in the green (+5.6%).Investing.com
- Investing.com describes Wednesday's crypto rally as bargain hunting after the deep losses of recent weeks rather than fresh demand: Wall Street futures and Asian indexes recovered their initial losses at the same time, especially in tech.Investing.com
2Technical analysis
- The Nov 3 daily candle closed at 7:00 PM ET at $77,454 — above the 200-day EMA at $76,749 for a third straight day; after the overnight wick to $75,736, today's candle traded $1,700 above the line, and a close above $76,750 at 7:00 PM ET tonight would keep the picture intact.Binance
- Daily RSI(14) rose to 42.7 from 37.9 earlier today — above 40 for the first time in six days; neutral 50 is still far off, but there is no oversold reading, and there never was one.Binance
- MACD at −1,244 versus the signal line at −946, histogram −298 (−363 earlier today, −411 yesterday): downside momentum is contracting for a third reading in a row, but there is no bullish crossover yet.Binance
8 more facts
- The EMA20 at $79,747 and EMA50 at $80,067 form a resistance band $1,300–1,600 above the price; the Sept 15 'golden cross' is technically still alive, but both lines point down.Binance
- The 50-week moving average at $75,607 and the short-term holder cost basis at $75,892 (as of Oct 28) held a test for the second time this week: the overnight low of $75,736 landed right between them, and that is where buyers came back.Binance
- The 100-day moving average at $76,663 was reclaimed on the bounce and became the first support; the 200-day simple moving average at $73,207 is the bears' target 6.7% lower; the 50-day at $81,911 is distant resistance, where the largest calls for Friday sit.Cryptoticker
- Nearest resistances: $78,720 (the 24-hour high), $79,000 (Friday's expiry max pain) and $79,750 (EMA20); supports: $76,750 (EMA200), $75,740 (the overnight low at the 50-week average) and $74,000, where the heaviest puts for Nov 6 and Nov 13 sit.Deribit
- The 30-day DVOL volatility index stood at 38.5 versus 37.7 a week ago; in daily terms that implies a move of about ±2.0%, or ±$1,590 — the full width of the base-case range; overnight into Wednesday DVOL had eased to 37.0 from a Tuesday peak of 40.9, with the election premium priced out.Deribit
- By CryptoTicker's estimate, one standard deviation to Friday's expiry (45 hours) is 2.65%, or about $2,080: two-thirds of the probability sits in $76,360–80,520, the chance of slipping below the 100-day average by Friday morning is about 19%, and of rising above $82,000 about 5%.Cryptoticker
- CoinLab fractals: on a two-week window, six similar stretches of history gave a median move of −8.2% over the following two weeks (only two of six up); on a 50-day window the median is +11.8% (four of six up), and on a six-month window +19.4% — the short-term picture is bearish, the medium- and long-term ones are not.CoinLab
- Polymarket odds for Thursday, Nov 5 put the median price at $78,416 with an interquartile range of $76,969–79,640 and a 49.4% chance that Bitcoin ends above the current price: the prediction market expects the same sideways action as our base case, with the median matching the report price to within $30.Polymarket
3Derivatives
- Liquidations across the market over 24 hours were about $464–469 million per two CoinGlass snapshots on Wednesday morning: $266–269 million in longs and $194–202 million in shorts; the short share rose to 43% from 19% a day earlier — the bounce from $75,700 wiped out those who shorted the bottom.Ethnews
- In Bitcoin, $96.9 million was liquidated in the 24 hours to noon ET Tuesday, 79% of it longs, but in the last four hours of that window 81% of liquidations were already shorts — the shift in structure began before the election results.Coinmarketcap
- The Binance forced-order feed logged by our server showed $26.4 million of liquidated Bitcoin longs over 24 hours versus $16.7 million of shorts (1,224 orders, a lower-bound estimate); in the last hour to 8:45 AM ET it took out $204K of shorts and only $38K of longs.CoinLab
5 more facts
- The largest liquidation of the day on Binance was a 39.9 BTC long ($3.0 million) at $75,952 at 10:01 PM ET Tuesday, right at the bottom of the overnight move; after midnight ET there were no orders larger than $0.2 million.CoinLab
- Open interest in BTC futures on Binance was 98,775 BTC ($7.75 billion), −0.3% over 24 hours and −0.3% over the week: the overnight flush closed out some longs, and the bounce added almost no new positions.Binance
- Funding is at the baseline 0.01% per 8 hours (about 11% annualized) on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid, and 0.0094% on OKX; the 30-day average is 0.005%: longs are paying no premium, there is no leverage in the market.Bybit
- The Binance long/short ratio by accounts was 2.31 (69.8% of accounts long), 1.74 among top traders; takers were selling slightly more than buying (0.99): retail is still long while large players are more cautious.Binance
- The quarterly futures basis was −0.03% — slight backwardation; CoinLab's squeeze index read −1 on a ±100 scale with 16% component agreement: after a reading of 25 in favor of shorts earlier today, the tilt disappeared and the market is balanced.CoinLab
4Options
- Open interest in BTC options on Deribit was 326,815 BTC ($25.6 billion) with an overall put/call of 0.68; across all venues CoinGlass counted $31.69 billion as of 7:04 AM ET (+6.8% on the day from $29.68 billion), with calls at 57.7% of positions and 60.2% of the $5.05 billion in turnover.Tokenpost
- Tomorrow, Nov 5 at 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC), contracts on 4,016 BTC expire with max pain at $77,500 and put/call 1.07 — $950 below the report price; today's expiry of 5,022 BTC with max pain at $77,000 passed at 3:00 AM ET without a move.Deribit
- The next large expiry is Friday, Nov 6: 31,933 BTC (about $2.5 billion) with max pain at $79,000 and put/call 0.34; the $82,000 calls (6,174 contracts) and $85,000 calls (5,152) are far from the price, while the heaviest puts are at $74,000 (1,267) and $75,000 (995).Deribit
4 more facts
- Nov 13 carries 15,008 BTC with put/call 2.12 — the most put-heavy date on the calendar: the $74,000 puts (4,098 contracts), $68,000 and $72,000 were bought for exactly one week after the election and the Nov 10 CPI.Deribit
- The most traded contracts over 24 hours were the $88,000 call for Dec 25, the $78,000 call for Nov 7 and the $80,000 call for Dec 25; the largest positions are the $80,000 and $100,000 calls and the $60,000 put for Dec 25: turnover has shifted to calls.Tokenpost
- The 25-delta skew for Nov 27 stood at −3.4 points versus −5.5 earlier today: puts cheapened relative to calls at the fastest pace in a week, and demand for post-election protection faded.Deribit
- The monthly expiry on Nov 27 (58,610 BTC, about $4.6 billion, max pain $80,000, put/call 0.80) and the quarterly on Dec 25 (138,749 BTC with max pain at $75,000) remain the largest on the calendar: the nearer one pulls the price up toward $80,000, the further one pulls it down.Deribit
5ETFs and institutions
- US spot BTC ETFs lost $115.6 million on Tuesday, Nov 3 — a fifth straight day of outflows: $95.0 million left BlackRock's IBIT and $52.6 million left the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, while Fidelity's FBTC and Bitwise's BITB took in small inflows. Wednesday's figures are due this afternoon.Tokenpost
- The pace of selling has slowed for a third day: $643 million on Friday, Oct 30, $399 million on Monday, $116 million on Tuesday — about $1.16 billion over three sessions in total; net inflows since the start of 2026 have nearly been wiped out.Crypto Briefing
- Assets across all spot BTC ETFs are about $98 billion versus a peak of $152 billion in July 2025; per Glassnode, the average entry price of ETF investors is about $81,500, meaning the funds are about 4% underwater on average.X
5 more facts
- ETH ETFs lost $85.3 million on Nov 3 — a seventh straight day of outflows, $74.4 million of it from BlackRock's ETHA; in the week from Nov 2, ETH funds shed $431.5 million and Solana funds $71.5 million, while XRP ETFs alone took in $4.3 million.Kucoin
- Strategy reported on Nov 2 that it bought 811 BTC for $65.5 million at an average of $80,846 (Oct 26 to Nov 1); it holds 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451 — $3,000 below the report price, and the overnight low came within $300 of it. The company's dollar reserve stands at $4.79 billion.Benzinga
- Around Nov 11, MSCI will announce whether Strategy stays in its global indexes; CFO Andrew Kang leaves in November, and with the stock weak the company may need to sell Bitcoin to cover preferred-stock dividends — the main corporate risk of the week.247wallst
- 181 public companies hold 1,314,155 BTC worth $103.0 billion — 6.26% of supply; after Strategy come Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One Capital (43,514), Strive (43,124) and MARA (35,577).CoinGecko
- Block (formerly Square) reported Q3: bitcoin gross profit fell 50% to $52 million on lower fees for BTC purchases in Cash App, but total profit beat estimates, full-year guidance was raised, and the stock rose in premarket.Investing.com
6Sentiment and on-chain
- The Fear & Greed Index reads 34 ('fear') versus 26 a day earlier, 51 a week ago and 70 a month ago; the one-year average is 31 and the year's low is 5.alternative.me
- MVRV as of Nov 2 is 1.42 (33rd historical percentile), Mayer Multiple 1.072, price 16.1% above the 200-week average of $67,587, Pi Cycle 0.498: CoinLab's 'market temperature' is 32 out of 100 versus 30 earlier today — cold, but not a bottom.Coinmetrics
- Stablecoin market cap is $296.9 billion, −2.1% over the week and −$12.1 billion (−3.9%) over 30 days: dollar liquidity is leaving the market, not waiting to enter.Defillama
6 more facts
- The Coinbase premium over Binance, adjusted for the USDT rate, was around zero (−$4 per coin) versus −0.16% earlier today: the US spot selling that weighed for four days stopped ahead of the open.Coinbase
- Analyst Ali Martinez notes that the short-term holder cost basis at $75,875 held once again: in March and June 2023 and in May 2024, a touch of this level marked the bottom. Michaël van de Poppe expects a 'sell the rumor, buy the news' on the election provided a higher low holds. These are opinions, not a confirmed signal.Crypto
- Per Glassnode as of Oct 26, the share of short-term holder supply in profit fell to 70% from nearly 100% in late September; holders in profit are spending four coins for every one sold at a loss — there is no long-term holder capitulation.Crypto Briefing
- On Nov 3, an unknown wallet moved 7,499 BTC (about $575 million) to Binance — such transfers usually precede a sale, but there is no confirmation of trades yet; meanwhile the exchange's balance has shrunk by roughly 23,200 BTC in the four days since the hack, partly due to the stolen coins themselves.Gokhshtein
- Long-term holders still sit underwater on roughly 4 million BTC bought in the $85,000–118,000 range: that is a supply overhang above any bounce toward $85,000.Yahoo Finance
- Polymarket odds for November: the market gives 83.5% to $80,000, 39.5% to $85,000 and 15.5% to $90,000; on the downside, 63.5% to $75,000 and 27.5% to $70,000: participants expect both $80,000 and $75,000 to be touched within the month, i.e. a wide range with no trend.Polymarket
7Mining
- Hashrate per mempool.space is 1,019 EH/s, with the seven-day average as of Nov 2 at about 1,069 EH/s versus 984 EH/s in early October: capacity is holding near its peak while the price falls.mempool.space
- Difficulty is 148.36 T after a 5.54% increase on Oct 29; the next adjustment is expected on Nov 13, in 1,214 blocks, and at the current pace would come in at −3.2% — the first decrease after two consecutive rises, with 40% of the period elapsed.mempool.space
- Hashprice as of Nov 1 was $33.18 per PH/s per day versus $40.24 on Oct 1 (−18%): some miners are operating below the $36–38 breakeven estimated by CoinShares, and the Nov 13 difficulty cut would give them only 3% of relief.Cryptonews
3 more facts
- Fees are at the floor: both a fast transfer and a within-the-hour transfer cost 1 sat/vB; the mempool is empty despite the overnight sell-off and the withdrawals from Binance.mempool.space
- Block height is 974,530, with 75,470 blocks to the halving — tentatively April 11, 2028.mempool.space
- MARA with 35,577 BTC remains the largest miner-holder and the fifth-largest public company by reserves; at $78,450 its treasury is worth about $2.8 billion.CoinGecko
8Macro
- The 8:15–8:30 AM ET data came in stronger than forecast: ADP employment for October +86K versus +69K expected (September revised to +86K from +90K), and the September trade deficit $105.1 billion versus a $108 billion forecast and $105.7 billion in August. Bitcoin stayed at $78,290–78,530 in the first 15 minutes.Trading Economics
- At 8:30 AM ET the Treasury announced a $125 billion quarterly refunding (3-year $58 billion, 10-year $42 billion, 30-year $25 billion) and kept its guidance that coupon auction sizes will remain unchanged for at least the next several quarters; buybacks of up to $70 billion for liquidity support and up to $25 billion for cash management.Treasury
- Midterms: per the AP count as of Wednesday morning, Democrats took 53 Senate seats to Republicans' 42 (5 undecided) and 221 House seats to 129 (95 undecided); seven Senate seats flipped — Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, North and South Carolina, and Texas. Trump told the New York Times he would accept the results.Forbes
8 more facts
- Futures reversed: by 7:57 AM ET S&P 500 futures were +0.8% after an overnight drop of 1.4%; by 5:25 AM ET Nasdaq-100 futures were +0.9% and Dow +1.3% — Bloomberg links the turnaround to Trump's pledge to accept the result. The opening bell rings at 9:30 AM ET.Bloomberg
- Single names in premarket: AMD +5% after earnings (EPS $2.09 versus $1.95, revenue $13.4 billion, +44.6% year over year), Tesla −4.3%, CoreWeave −3.5%; clean energy and healthcare are rising, defense names are falling. Uber, Qualcomm, McDonald's and Arm report after the close.Tipranks
- The dollar is at a five-week low: DXY 101.24 (−0.6% on the day, −0.9% on the week); gold at $4,050 (+2.8% on the day) is back above $4,000 for the first time in a week; the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.92% versus 4.95% at Tuesday's close, the 2-year 4.61%.Yahoo Finance
- WTI crude $94.4 (−1.8% on the day, −8.2% on the week), Brent $102.8: the market is betting on Qatar's mediation to end the US-Israel war with Iran; the VIX fell 11% to 18.5 — below 20 for the first time in a week, with risk appetite returning.Yahoo Finance
- Tuesday's US close came before the vote count: S&P 500 +0.36% to 7,569, Nasdaq +0.83% to 25,372, Dow −0.38% to 51,787 on Apple; Asia was mixed overnight — Hang Seng +1.7%, Shanghai +2.2%, Shenzhen +3.2%, while the Nikkei fell 1.4% after a holiday; Europe opened higher, led by clean energy.Tipranks
- The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% on Oct 28 with two votes for a hike; the next meeting is Dec 8–9. After strong JOLTS (7.52 million openings versus 7.1 million forecast), CME FedWatch puts a 25 bp hike at 79–82%, Polymarket at 78.5% for a hike and 20.5% for a hold; for January, 72.5% for no change.Polymarket
- Eurozone inflation accelerated to 4.0% in October from 3.8% (as expected), core 2.5%: the ECB, like the Fed, is getting no reason to ease, and tight money remains the backdrop for Bitcoin on both sides of the Atlantic.Trading Economics
- Later today and this week: ISM services at 10:00 AM ET (forecast 54.8, prices paid 74.0 a month earlier); Thursday brings jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET and speeches by Hammack (8:50 AM ET), Musalem (9:10 AM ET) and Bowman (12:15 PM ET); Friday brings the October jobs report at 8:30 AM ET and Bowman at 12:15 PM ET; CPI is on Nov 10. No Fed speakers on Wednesday.Federal Reserve
9Regulation and events
- A Democratic Congress from January changes the picture for the crypto industry: the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate on Sept 15 and expires on Jan 3, 2027; Investing.com notes that the pro-crypto laws of Trump's first two years relied on Republicans while Democrats blocked CLARITY, and the White House is now left with executive orders that a next administration can reverse.Investing.com
- SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig are writing rules without Congress: in August the SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets (comments closed Oct 20), and in October the CFTC opened a consultation on retail crypto asset transactions; after the election this is the only working path.CFTC
- The CFTC's approval of perpetual futures on single stocks (Nov 3) was challenged in court the same day; the SEC has 60 days to overturn the decision — a Democratic majority raises the odds of a review.Decrypt
6 more facts
- After the Binance hack, Selig offered offshore exchanges a path to CFTC registration with cybersecurity requirements matching those of US venues and named 'unregulated offshore exchanges' as the source of risk; Senate Republicans responded by defending CLARITY — two competing approaches in Washington.Bitcoin.com
- After the $6.3 billion hack (Oct 29), Binance restored withdrawals for 15 major coins including BTC, ETH and SOL, plus another 51 tokens on the Ethereum and Solana networks; the exchange has covered 95% of the losses and gives no timeline for the remaining 5% in illiquid assets.Crypto
- The FBI attributed the hack to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, which Pyongyang denies; Tether froze more than $1.57 billion in USDT and Circle more than $1.1 billion in USDC, about $3 billion blocked in total.CoinDesk
- In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa was elected governor after proposing a pause on new data centers in the state: investors worry that tougher rules for AI infrastructure will also hit miners shifting capacity to AI.Tipranks
- Historically, the first weeks after midterms have not helped Bitcoin: it lost 16% in November 2022 and 36% in November 2018, and gained 11% in 2014; for the first time since 2014 it meets the election above its 200-day simple moving average.CoinDesk
- Calendar for the next 24 hours: the US open at 9:30 AM ET with S&P 500 futures around +0.8%; ISM services at 10:00 AM ET; Wednesday's BTC ETF flows this afternoon; the daily candle close at 7:00 PM ET (00:00 UTC); Deribit expiry of 4,016 BTC with max pain at $77,500 at 3:00 AM ET Thursday; jobless claims and three Fed speakers on Thursday; Devcon 8 in Mumbai runs through Nov 6.Deribit