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Market cap$2.71T-2.1%BTC dominance59.5%Fear & Greed50BTC$80,062-0.5%ETH$2,318-1.1%BNB$741.68+0.0%XRP$1.29-0.6%SOL$101.52+0.2%TRX$0.3304+0.4%ZEC$1,239+2.3%HYPE$78.17+1.7%DOGE$0.0774+0.4%XMR$590.69-2.3%
This is the archived brief for October 26, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Monday, October 26, 2026

Bitcoin today, October 26, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Oct 26, 8:50 AM ET · price at release $80,516Two briefs a day: overnight at 1:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:40 AM ET on Monday, Oct 26, ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded at $80,516: up 0.2% over 24 hours, but after Saturday's drop to $79,221 the price never reclaimed $81,000, and it is down 1.7% on the week.

  • The base case for the next 24 hours is sideways at $79,500⁠–⁠81,500 ahead of the Fed decision Wednesday: there was no major US data at 8:30 AM ET today, Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.4⁠–⁠0.7%, and Polymarket's median for Tuesday is $80,442.
  • The key risk is Iran: Trump said Sunday he was choosing between a deal and a strike, but talks in Tehran continue and Brent has pulled back to $114.5.
Price when the brief was released
$80,516
Oct 26, 8:50 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 26, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$79,500–$81,500
50%
50%
30%
20%
Resistance
$81,000
$82,000
$83,000
Support
$79,200
$78,400
$77,500
Sideways · 50%
$79,500–$81,500

Ahead of the Fed decision Wednesday, big players are in no hurry: DVOL at 38.6 has not risen, Binance open interest is down 2.2% on the week, and daily liquidations have dropped to $119⁠–⁠154 million from $810 million over the weekend. Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.4⁠–⁠0.7%, oil is retreating on the Tehran talks, and the Oct 27⁠–⁠28 expiries with max pain at $80,000⁠–⁠80,500 pull the price toward the middle of the corridor. Polymarket's median for Tuesday is $80,442, with half the outcomes in $79,056⁠–⁠81,605: the same corridor.

Pullback · 30%
$77,500–$79,500

68.5% of Binance accounts are long with funding three times the average, MACD is below its signal line, retail is sending coins to Binance at the fastest pace in six months, and ETFs lost money two days in a row (−$773 million). A fresh break of Saturday's $79,221 low would open the way to $78,400 and the main expiry's max pain at $78,000; the trigger would be a new strike on Iran, a spike in oil or a weak US open at 9:30 AM ET. Polymarket gives 40.5% for a touch of $77,500 in October.

Breakout · 20%
$81,500–$83,000

This needs de-escalation with Iran (Trump left the door open for a deal) and ETF inflows on Monday after the $305 million weekly gain: two-week fractals produced a rally in 5 of 6 cases, and whales cut exchange deposits to $3.8 billion. Against it: the EMA20 ($81,977), no Strategy purchases, the 10-year yield at 5.00% and 75.5% odds of a December rate hike.

What to watch today
  • US market open Oct 26 at 9:30 AM ET and daily Bitcoin ETF flows after the close
  • Holding Saturday's $79,221 low and a move back above $81,000
  • The Tehran talks and any Trump decision on Iran; Brent near $114⁠–⁠115
  • Daily candle close at 00:00 UTC (8 PM ET) and the Deribit expiry on Oct 27 at 08:00 UTC with max pain $80,000
  • Robinhood and SoFi earnings Oct 27, Israel's election Oct 27
  • Fed decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET and Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET; US GDP and PCE Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET; Deribit expiry Oct 30 at 08:00 UTC (4 AM ET)
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 8:40 AM ET on Monday, Oct 26, Bitcoin traded at $80,516: up 0.2% over 24 hours, down 1.7% over the week and 4.6% over the month.Binance
  • The 24-hour range was $79,369⁠–⁠80,952: overnight in Asia the price dipped back toward $79,300, then recovered above $80,000 by the European open.Binance
  • Saturday's low of $79,221 remains the lowest level of the month; the monthly high is $87,220, so Bitcoin is down 7.7% from it.Binance
7 more facts
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 10,121 BTC (about $812 million): the market is trading thinly ahead of the Fed decision.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap was $1.61 trillion with dominance at 59.5%; the entire crypto market was valued at $2.71 trillion.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin was 36.3% below its all-time high of $126,080 set on Oct 6, 2025, and down 29.1% year over year.CoinGecko
  • Ether traded at $2,322 Monday morning (down 0.3% over 24 hours, 4.1% over the week), with ETH dominance at 10.5%: altcoins are falling harder than Bitcoin in October.CoinGecko
  • Per Decrypt, over 30 days ETH lost 13.6%, SOL 17.1%, XRP 17.4% and DOGE 22.3%; Monday morning's gainers were QNT (+17%) and ZEC (+4%).Decrypt
  • Bitcoin is heading for a fourth straight daily decline and its first losing month since June: it opened October at $83,624.Investing.com
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance in dollar terms was −0.03% (−$21 per coin): essentially no gap, with US buyers not pushing in either direction.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) is 43.5: below the midpoint of the scale, but far from oversold (30).Binance
  • Daily MACD (−388) is below its signal line (−47), with the histogram at −341 versus −334 on Sunday: downward momentum persists but is barely deepening.Binance
  • The price is holding just below the EMA50 ($80,815) and under the EMA20 ($81,977): a move back above $81,000 is needed to relieve the pressure, otherwise the path to $78⁠–⁠79K is open.Binance
9 more facts
  • The EMA200 ($76,473) and the 50-week moving average ($75,818) run below as the main trend support; the golden cross from Sep 14 has not been undone.Binance
  • The Mayer Multiple is 1.10 (price 10% above the 200-day SMA of $72,988), the 58th percentile historically: neither overheated nor a selloff.CoinLab
  • The 200-week moving average is $67,163, with Bitcoin 19.9% above it; the Pi Cycle indicator reads 0.49 (SMA111 at $74,323 versus doubled SMA350 at $152,796): a cycle-top signal is far away.CoinLab
  • Fractals: in the two-week window, 5 of 6 similar historical stretches ended with a rally (median +9.2% over the following two weeks); in the 50-day window, only 3 of 6 (median −1.6%).CoinLab
  • CoinLab "market temperature" is 35 out of 100: by MVRV, Mayer Multiple, the 200-week average and Pi Cycle, the market is closer to the cold zone than to overheating.CoinLab
  • Polymarket's ladder for noon ET Tuesday gives a median of $80,442, with half the outcomes in $79,056⁠–⁠81,605; the probability the price ends above the current level is 48.4%.Polymarket
  • Our base case of $79,500⁠–⁠81,500 matches the Polymarket corridor: the prediction market also expects a sideways move into the Fed decision.Polymarket
  • Polymarket's October targets: 55.5% for a touch of $82,500 by month-end, 40.5% for $77,500 and 14.5% for $75,000.Polymarket
  • Crypto.news analysts see support at $79,000⁠–⁠80,000: a daily close below $79,000 would open the way to $75,000, while resistance for a recovery is $82,000.Crypto

3Derivatives

  • In the 24 hours to 1:00 AM ET on Oct 26, $154 million in positions were liquidated across the crypto market for 62,000 traders: $118 million were longs, with $32.9 million in Bitcoin and $43.2 million in Ether.Crypto
  • A later snapshot shows $119 million over 24 hours ($82 million in longs): after Saturday's wipeout of more than $810 million, the market has calmed down.Kucoin
  • Funding on Binance is +0.0085% per 8 hours (9.3% annualized); on Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid it is +0.01% (11% annualized): longs are paying three times the monthly average (+0.0035%).Binance
5 more facts
  • Binance BTC open interest is 94,060 BTC ($7.57 billion): up 0.4% over 24 hours, down 2.2% over the week; leverage is not rebuilding after the selloff.Binance
  • The Binance long/short account ratio is 2.17 (68.5% long), and 1.63 among top traders: retail remains overloaded with longs.Binance
  • Takers are selling more than buying (0.93): there is no aggressive dip-buying.Binance
  • The CoinLab squeeze score is −2 out of 8 signals: no setup for a sharp short squeeze, more likely pressure on longs.CoinLab
  • The Binance mark price ($80,485) is below the index ($80,516): futures are trading at a slight discount to spot.Binance

4Options

  • DVOL is 38.6 points (38.8 a week ago): implied volatility has not risen even ahead of the Fed and an $11 billion expiry.Deribit
  • The put/call ratio by open interest is 0.60; total open interest on Deribit is 389,300 BTC (about $31.3 billion).Deribit
  • On Oct 27 at 08:00 UTC, 2,421 BTC expire with max pain at $80,000; on Oct 28, 2,201 BTC with max pain at $80,500 and a put overweight (1.04).Deribit
4 more facts
  • The main expiry is Friday, Oct 30 at 08:00 UTC (4 AM ET): 135,741 BTC, about $10.9 billion and a third of all open interest, with max pain at $78,000 and a put/call ratio of 0.55.Deribit
  • Deribit's settlement price is a 30-minute average of the index, so a single large trade at expiry has almost no effect on the outcome.Cryptoticker
  • The largest position in the October series is the $95,000-strike calls (about 25,000 BTC): they will expire out of the money unless the price rises 18% in four days.Cryptoticker
  • The 25-delta skew for Nov 27 is about 4.4% in favor of puts: downside protection costs more, but without panic; for December (133,066 BTC) max pain is $75,000.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • On Oct 23, US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $137.9 million: IBIT −$110.3 million, FBTC −$31.8 million; the first Monday figures will come after the close.Crypto
  • On Oct 22 the outflow was $635.6 million, the largest single day since June 25; over two days the funds gave up about $773.5 million.Yahoo Finance
  • The week of Oct 19⁠–⁠23 still closed with a $301⁠–⁠305 million inflow: strong buying on Monday and Wednesday outweighed the outflows.Kucoin
8 more facts
  • Ether ETFs lost $220.6 million that same week, their fourth straight losing week; on Oct 23 they took in just $4 million.Kucoin
  • Among altcoin ETFs, ZEC stood out for the week (+$41.1 million) and XRP added $4.3 million, while SOL (−$17.3 million) and HYPE (−$15.2 million) lost money.Kucoin
  • Strategy reported Monday that it bought no Bitcoin during Oct 19⁠–⁠25, the first time in several weeks; its holdings stayed at 848,517 BTC.Cryptotimes
  • A week earlier the company bought just 267 BTC for $22.1 million but expanded its preferred stock buyback to $3 billion: the cash is going to support STRC, not to coins.Quiverquant
  • Strategy's average purchase price is $75,441 (as of Oct 4): at $80,516 the portfolio is up 6.7%; the Q3 earnings report is due Oct 29 after the close.Investing.com
  • Public companies hold 1,303,574 BTC ($104.7 billion, 6.2% of supply) across 181 treasuries; second after Strategy is Metaplanet with 44,000 BTC.CoinGecko
  • Vanguard's small-cap ETF (VSS) bought Metaplanet shares for the first time, roughly $7.5 million worth; per an Oct 23 filing, Capital Research became the company's largest shareholder with an 11.11% stake.Coingape
  • Fidelity Digital Assets estimates that perpetual preferred stock issuance since 2025 has financed corporate purchases of about 136,000 BTC.Investing.com

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear and Greed Index is 50 ("neutral") versus 54 on Sunday, 59 a week ago and 74 a month ago: October's optimism has faded away.alternative.me
  • MVRV as of Oct 25 is 1.48, the 38th percentile historically: the average holder is up 48%, far from overheated zones (above 2.5).Coinmetrics
  • The short-term holder cost basis was $74,682 as of Oct 19: the market is 7.8% above it, so recent buyers are on average still in profit.Bgeometrics
4 more facts
  • Stablecoins in circulation total $304.2 billion: down 0.7% over the week and $2.5 billion over the month; fresh money is not entering the crypto market.Defillama
  • Per CryptoQuant, retail Bitcoin transfers to Binance hit a six-month high: 30-day cumulative deposits rose from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion.Crypto
  • Whale deposits to exchanges over 30 days, by contrast, fell from $5.9 billion in late August to $3.8 billion: large holders are in no hurry to sell at current prices.Blockonomi
  • Bitcoin keeps moving with AI stocks: Benjamin Cowen points to a second straight weekly candle below the May high and to Bull Market Support Band support at $75⁠–⁠76K.Dailycoin

7Mining

  • Hashrate is 1,079 EH/s and difficulty 140.58 trillion; the epoch is 75.5% complete, with 493 blocks left until the adjustment.mempool.space
  • The difficulty adjustment is expected Oct 29 with a projected +5.9%, following +5.9% on Oct 16: capacity is growing for a second straight epoch despite the lower price.mempool.space
  • Fees are at the minimum, 2 sat/vB for a fast confirmation and 1 sat/vB within an hour: the network is not congested, and there is no speculative demand for block space.mempool.space
2 more facts
  • Block height is 973,235; 76,765 blocks remain until the halving, estimated for Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space
  • MARA Holdings, with 35,577 BTC, remains the largest public miner by coin holdings, fourth among all corporate treasuries.CoinGecko

8Macro

  • There was no major US data at 8:30 AM ET today: only the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September (consensus −0.1), with the Dallas Fed manufacturing index due at 10:30 AM ET (9.8 in September).Yahoo Finance
  • An hour before the open, S&P 500 futures were up 0.3⁠–⁠0.4%, Nasdaq-100 futures 0.4⁠–⁠0.7% and Dow futures 0.4%: the market is pricing in the drop in oil and awaiting Alphabet and Microsoft earnings on Wednesday.Yahoo Finance
  • On Friday the S&P 500 closed at 7,623.68 (−0.5%) and the Nasdaq at 25,955 (−0.2%): a second straight weekly loss for both indexes; the VIX is 19.1.Yahoo Finance
12 more facts
  • The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.00% (+4 bp on Oct 23) and the 2-year 4.69%: the bond market continues to price in a December rate hike.Treasury
  • The dollar index is 101.88 (+0.1% on the day, −0.1% on the week); gold is $4,030 (+0.6% on the day but −3.1% on the week).Yahoo Finance
  • WTI crude is $101.0 (−2.2%) and Brent about $114.5 (−1.9%) after Friday's highest level since April: Brent gained 6% on the week on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.CNBC
  • Trump said Sunday on Fox News that he was choosing between a deal with Iran and "finishing them off"; Iran's foreign ministry replied that diplomacy through intermediaries continues.Cbsnews
  • Talks are under way in Tehran on Monday with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan taking part and Qatar mediating; the coalition reported intercepting a Houthi missile over Riyadh.Cbsnews
  • On Saturday the WSJ reported an accelerated evacuation of US personnel from embassies and bases in the Middle East: that news is what pushed Bitcoin below $80,000 over the weekend.Decrypt
  • The October flash US PMI (Oct 23): composite 57.6 after 58.4, services 57.9, manufacturing 56.0, a 53-month high; output prices rose at the fastest pace since August 2022.Spglobal
  • The Fed meets Oct 27⁠–⁠28: the decision comes Wednesday at 2 PM ET, Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET, with no new projections; the rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% after the Sep 16 hike.Federal Reserve
  • Polymarket gives 94.4% for a hold in October and 5.5% for +25 bp; for December, 75.5% for a 25 bp hike and 20.5% for a pause; CME FedWatch as of Oct 22 put a hold at about 91%.Polymarket
  • PIMCO expects a pause with the tightening bias intact and a 25 bp hike in December; Warsh said at the IMF meetings that he does "not prejudge the meeting.".CNBC
  • Thursday, Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET brings the Q3 GDP advance estimate, September PCE and jobless claims; the ECB decides the same day, and the Bank of Japan on Friday.Kucoin
  • Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday after the close, Amazon on Thursday: for Bitcoin, which is correlated with AI stocks, this is the week's second most important factor after the Fed.Forbes

9Regulation and events

  • The opening bell is at 9:30 AM ET; Robinhood and SoFi report Tuesday, Oct 27, and Coinbase and Strategy on Thursday, Oct 29 after the close.Decrypt
  • The CLARITY Act remains stalled: the Sep 15 Senate procedural vote failed 49⁠–⁠50 against the 60 needed, no new vote has been scheduled, and the Senate is out for most of October ahead of the Nov 3 election.Dlapiper
  • Regulators are moving without Congress: on Oct 5 the CFTC opened a comment period on Regulation CTX and CAM rules for retail crypto asset transactions, while the SEC advances Regulation Crypto Assets in parallel.CFTC
5 more facts
  • Twenty-two companies, including Wells Fargo and Cisco, objected to tokenized versions of their shares on the OKX and ICE platform: the tokenization dispute is reaching the issuer level.Decrypt
  • Hardware wallet maker Keystone confirmed a leak of customer names, contact details and shipping addresses; keys and seed phrases were not affected, and owners are being warned about phishing.Investing.com
  • The Bloom trading bot on Solana lost about 9,408 SOL ($947K) from 49 wallets belonging to nine users; the team has promised full reimbursement.Decrypt
  • Israel votes Tuesday, Oct 27: Netanyahu warned that Iran and its allies may try to disrupt the election; the US midterms are eight days away.Cbsnews
  • The $10.9⁠–⁠11.1 billion Deribit options expiry is Friday, Oct 30 at 08:00 UTC (4 AM ET), a day and a half after the Fed decision.Deribit

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
21
Base case came true
86%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
100%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 16, 2026$82,202$81,616 (-0.8%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 15, 2026$81,108$82,246 (+0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 14, 2026$83,610$81,682 (-1.8%) Sideways, 45%Pullbackno
October 13, 2026$83,728$83,169 (+1.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 12, 2026$84,017$81,850 (-2.3%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
October 11, 2026$83,078$83,773 (+0.9%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 10, 2026$82,669$82,988 (+0.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 9, 2026$82,374$82,636 (+1.1%) Sideways, 48%Sidewaysyes
October 8, 2026$82,927$81,754 (-1.9%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 7, 2026$84,194$83,322 (-2.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 6, 2026$85,674$85,550 (-0.2%) Sideways, 60%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight