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Market cap$2.52T-3.8%BTC dominance60.0%Fear & Greed28BTC$75,764-0.1%ETH$2,227-0.3%BNB$694.97+0.2%XRP$1.15-0.7%SOL$88.96-0.8%TRX$0.3199+0.1%ZEC$1,246-1.4%HYPE$76.50-1.3%XMR$605.70-0.8%DOGE$0.0709-1.2%
This is the archived brief for November 8, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Sunday, November 8, 2026

Bitcoin on November 8, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Nov 8, 12:45 AM ET · price at release $75,878Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 12:40 AM ET Sunday, Bitcoin traded near $75,900, down 0.2% over 24 hours in a tight $75,571⁠–⁠76,250 range: price has held the 50-week moving average ($75,556) and Strategy's cost basis ($75,451) for a fourth day while volume dropped by two-thirds during the Asian weekend session.

  • Our base case for the next 24 hours is sideways at $74,800⁠–⁠77,200 (55%), in line with Polymarket's $75,877 median for Monday and $76,000 max pain on the nearest expiries.
  • The key risks are the weekly close (7:00 PM ET Sunday) and the Asia open after a week of $1.28B in ETF outflows and 76.5% odds of a December Fed hike.
Price when the brief was released
$75,878
Nov 8, 12:45 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 8, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$74,800–$77,200
55%
55%
25%
20%
Resistance
$76,300
$76,800
$78,000
Support
$75,550
$74,900
$73,200
Sideways · 55%
$74,800–$77,200

It's Sunday: spot volume is down by two-thirds, Saturday's candle was the narrowest in a month, and DVOL at 40.3 implies about ±$1,600. Polymarket's Nov 9 median of $75,877 and its $74,649⁠–⁠77,184 interquartile range match the corridor. Price is holding the 50-week MA ($75,556), Strategy's cost basis ($75,451) and the short-term holder cost basis ($75,796); max pain for the nearest expiries is $76,000, with the 200-day EMA at $76,825 above.

Pullback · 25%
$72,500–$74,800

MACD is negative, takers are selling (0.86), ETFs lost $1.28B last week, stablecoins are shrinking and Polymarket puts a December Fed hike at 76.5%. Retail is 75.5% long and the squeeze index slipped to −12: a break of the $74,888 low on thin liquidity could run stops toward the 200-day SMA at $73,240. The Asia open and US futures reopening Sunday evening ET could add volatility.

Breakout · 20%
$77,200–$79,500

Fear (28) is a typical bounce zone, fractals lean higher (two-week window: 4 of 6 up, median +7.1%), downside momentum has faded for two days and put demand is cooling. Monday's options series is almost all calls, and a possible Strategy purchase on Monday plus a weekly close above the 200-day EMA ($76,825) would open the way to the Nov 13 max pain of $78,000.

What to watch today
  • Today 08:00 UTC (3:00 AM ET): 2,667 BTC options expiry on Deribit, max pain $76,000
  • Weekly candle close at 00:00 UTC Monday (7:00 PM ET Sunday): above or below the 50-week MA at $75,556
  • US stock futures reopen at 6:00 PM ET Sunday, followed by Asia's open after Friday's Nikkei and Kospi rout
  • Monday, Nov 9: Strategy's weekly purchase disclosure and a 7,809 BTC expiry at 08:00 UTC
  • Tuesday, Nov 10, 8:30 AM ET: US October CPI
  • Difficulty adjustment around Nov 13 (est. −4.3%) and the Nov 13 expiry (33,416 BTC, max pain $78,000)
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • Overnight, as of 12:40 AM ET Sunday, Bitcoin traded near $75,900: down 0.2% over 24 hours, 3.2% over 7 days and 8.2% over 30 days.Binance
  • The 24-hour range was just $75,571⁠–⁠76,250 (0.9%); Saturday's daily candle was the narrowest in a month and closed at $75,868, almost flat to its open.Binance
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume fell to 4,810 BTC (about $365M) over 24 hours, a third of the prior day: a classic weekend market with big players on the sidelines.Binance
5 more facts
  • The 30-day low is $74,888 (Nov 6) and the weekly high is $81,196, so price sits about 6.5% below the week's peak.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.52T and the total crypto market $2.56T (−2.7% over 24 hours); BTC dominance is 59.3%, ETH 10.6%.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin is 39.9% below its $126,080 all-time high (Oct 6, 2025) and down 26% year over year.CoinGecko
  • Altcoins were flat overnight too: Ether at $2,234 (−0.6% over 24h), Solana $89.2 (−1.1%), XRP $1.16, BNB $697; ETH/BTC at 0.0295 (−0.4%).Binance
  • The Coinbase premium is −0.009%, effectively zero: US buyers are neither stepping in nor selling harder than the rest of the world this weekend.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) is 38.1: weak territory, with room before oversold (30).Binance
  • MACD at −1,529 is below its signal line (−1,221); the histogram is −308 vs −322 a day earlier, so downside momentum persists but is fading for a second day.Binance
  • Price is below the 20-day EMA ($78,614), the 50-day EMA ($79,522) and the 200-day EMA ($76,825); the latter, about $950 above, is the nearest resistance.Binance
5 more facts
  • The 50-week moving average is $75,556 and price has held right on it for a fourth day; the weekly candle closes at 00:00 UTC Monday (7:00 PM ET Sunday), and a close below would weaken the picture.Binance
  • The 200-day simple moving average is $73,240 and the Mayer Multiple 1.04 (50th historical percentile): price is 3.6% above the long-term trend.CoinLab
  • The 200-week moving average is $67,639, with price 12.2% above it; the Pi Cycle ratio is 0.5, far from overheated.CoinLab
  • Fractals: the two-week stretch (−6.2%) matches 6 historical episodes, 4 of which rose afterwards (median +7.1%); the 50-day window shows 5 of 6 up (median +2.1%) and the six-month window 6 of 6 (median +26.5%).CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for Nov 9 (17:00 UTC) is $75,877 with an interquartile range of $74,649⁠–⁠77,184 and a 47.5% chance of being above $76,000: bettors expect the same sideways drift as our base case.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Binance BTC futures open interest is 95,968 BTC ($7.28B): +0.3% over 24h and −3.4% over the week, so leverage is not being rebuilt after the flush.Binance
  • Binance funding is 0.0066% per 8h (7.3% annualized), slightly above the 30-day average of 0.0059%: longs are paying a little more again.Binance
  • Funding elsewhere: Bybit and Hyperliquid at 0.01% per 8h (11% annualized), OKX 0.0025%; positive everywhere, with no crowding into shorts.Bybit
5 more facts
  • Binance perps trade slightly below spot (mark $75,848 vs index $75,880, basis −0.04%): sellers are marginally more active in derivatives.Binance
  • Binance's account long/short ratio is 3.08 (75.5% long) versus 1.87 for top traders: retail remains heavily long while larger players are more cautious.Binance
  • The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.86: market sellers clearly outweigh buyers, albeit on thin volume.Binance
  • The CoinLab squeeze index is −12 (vs −3 a day earlier): a mild tilt toward crowded longs with 54% agreement across metrics, so a break lower would hit longs first.CoinLab
  • The last big liquidation wave came on Nov 5⁠–⁠6: about $1.26B in 24 hours, $1.12B of it longs; weekend forced closures have been light.Crypto

4Options

  • Today at 08:00 UTC (3:00 AM ET) 2,667 BTC of options expire on Deribit with max pain at $76,000, right at spot: minimal impact.Deribit
  • Monday, Nov 9 at 08:00 UTC brings 7,809 BTC, also with $76,000 max pain and a put/call of just 0.13: that series is almost all calls.Deribit
  • The next large expiry is Nov 13: 33,416 BTC, max pain $78,000, put/call 0.68.Deribit
4 more facts
  • The Nov 27 monthly expiry holds 71,942 BTC with $80,000 max pain; the Dec 25 quarterly holds 140,452 BTC with $75,000 max pain.Deribit
  • The DVOL volatility index is 40.3 (40.0 a week ago), implying a daily move of about ±2.1%, or ±$1,600.Deribit
  • Put/call across all open interest is 0.69; total open interest is 340,425 BTC ($25.8B).Deribit
  • The Nov 27 skew is −3.4 (vs −4.2 a day earlier): puts still trade over calls, but demand for downside protection keeps cooling.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $411.9M on Friday, Nov 6: IBIT −$403M, BITB −$20.5M, ARKB −$20.1M, GBTC −$11.1M; only FBTC took in money (+$42.8M). Markets are closed over the weekend.Tftc
  • For the first week of November (Nov 2⁠–⁠6) the funds lost $1.28B: outflows on four of five days, with only Nov 4 positive (+$74.6M).Tftc
  • Cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at $55.7B, with $95.9B in assets, or 6.28% of Bitcoin's market cap (as of Nov 6).Tokenpost
4 more facts
  • Ether ETFs lost $93.3M on Nov 6, a fifth straight day of outflows (−$365.2M over five days): ETF demand is weak across crypto, not just Bitcoin.Coinotag
  • Strategy holds 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451, so Bitcoin trades only 0.6% above the company's cost basis.The Block
  • Strategy's latest buy was 811 BTC for $65.5M (avg $80,846) between Oct 26 and Nov 1, funded by $164M of MSTR share sales; its USD reserve is $4.9B. The company usually discloses purchases on Mondays.Stocktwits
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30M BTC (6.2% of supply), worth about $98.6B; after Strategy the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One (43,514) and Strive (43,124).CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 28 (Fear), up from 25 (Extreme Fear) a day ago; it was 34 a week ago and 59 a month ago.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature is 28 out of 100: across cycle metrics the market sits in the cold zone, historically a buying rather than selling area.CoinLab
  • MVRV is 1.42 (as of Nov 2), the 33rd historical percentile: holders are on average in a moderate ~42% profit.Coinmetrics
5 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis is about $75,796 (as of Nov 1): price is sitting right on it, leaving new buyers at breakeven, the zone where the level either holds as support or breaks.Bgeometrics
  • On Nov 6 a whale dormant for over a year accumulated 3,009 BTC (about $228M), and another 1,286 BTC left Binance: large buyers used the dip.Blockonomi
  • About 11,000 BTC net left exchanges on Nov 5 for cold storage, yet CryptoQuant's 30-day apparent demand stood near −160,000 BTC (as of Nov 5).Crypto
  • Stablecoin supply is $294.1B: −2% on the week and −4.6% (−$14.2B) over 30 days, so no fresh money is entering crypto.Defillama
  • Retail is nonetheless 75.5% long by Binance accounts: such a lopsided positioning amid fear rarely precedes a sustained rally without a flush first.Binance

7Mining

  • Hashrate is about 1,006 EH/s; difficulty is 148.4T.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is due around Nov 13 (in 718 blocks), estimated at −4.3% as miners power down after the price drop; the previous one was +5.5%.mempool.space
  • Fees are at the floor: 1 sat/vB for both fast and within-the-hour confirmation, with the network almost empty.mempool.space
3 more facts
  • Block height is 975,026, with 74,974 blocks to the halving (around April 2028).mempool.space
  • VanEck called miner stocks oversold on Nov 5, after shares of those pivoting to AI data centers fell 35% on average in October.CoinDesk
  • Bernstein cut price targets on seven miners by up to 54% on Nov 4, citing post-midterm risk to data-center buildouts.CoinDesk

8Macro

  • On Friday the Nasdaq rebounded 1.1% to 24,579 and the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,377, but on the week the S&P lost 2.7% and the Nasdaq 3.4%, a fourth straight losing week.Upi
  • October payrolls (released Nov 6) ran hot: +165K jobs vs about 60K expected, unemployment at 4.1%, wages +0.4% m/m.CNBC
  • The fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% after the Sept 16 hike; it was held on Oct 28 in a 10⁠–⁠2 vote. The next meeting is Dec 8⁠–⁠9.Axios
8 more facts
  • Polymarket prices a December hike at 76.5% and a hold at 21.5%; for January it expects a pause (73.5%).Polymarket
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Nov 6 that further hikes may be needed despite the tech selloff, keeping Fed rhetoric hawkish.CNBC
  • The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.51% (+5bp) and the 10-year 4.86% (+2bp) as of Nov 6: tight money weighs on risk assets.Treasury
  • The DXY dollar index is 102.3 (+0.7% Friday), gold $4,075 (−0.9%, but +4.5% over five days), oil $90.8 (−12.8% over five days).Yahoo Finance
  • The VIX is 25.6: down 9% on Friday but up 32% on the week, so equity fear remains elevated.Yahoo Finance
  • Asia closed Friday with a rout (Nikkei and Kospi −6%); Asian trading resumes Monday, and US stock futures reopen at 6:00 PM ET Sunday.Cnn
  • The week's key event is October CPI on Tuesday, Nov 10, at 8:30 AM ET; Continuum Economics expects core +0.2% m/m after two straight 0.3% prints.Continuumeconomics
  • Minutes of the October FOMC meeting are due Nov 18 at 2:00 PM ET.Gomarkets

9Regulation and events

  • After the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate, the SEC and CFTC signed a memorandum of understanding on Nov 3 and are writing crypto rules without legislation.Mondovisione
  • In October the CFTC issued an advance notice on rules for retail crypto (Regulation CTX and CAM), complementing the SEC's August Regulation Crypto Assets proposal.Mayerbrown
  • House Democrats are reportedly rewriting CLARITY: more power for the SEC, less for the CFTC, plus ethics limits on officials' crypto businesses.Benzinga
5 more facts
  • The SEC has 2 of 5 commissioners and the CFTC 1 of 5 (Michael Selig); the new Congress convenes Jan 3, 2027.Forbes
  • The Binance exploit (since Oct 29) totals about $6.3⁠–⁠6.4B; Chainalysis attributes it to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, with about $2.8B frozen by Nov 3.Chainalysis
  • After withdrawals resumed on Nov 1, about $3.64B net left Binance in the first 9.5 hours; 21Shares calls it an orderly exit rather than a run.21shares
  • Polymarket for November: touching $80,000 at 57.5%, dropping to $72,500 at 59.5% and to $70,000 at 41.5%: bettors expect a wide range.Polymarket
  • The weekly candle closes at 00:00 UTC Monday, Nov 9 (7:00 PM ET Sunday); Monday 08:00 UTC brings a 7,809 BTC expiry on Deribit.Binance

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
43
Base case came true
77%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
95%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 7, 2026 · overnight$76,023$75,866 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 7, 2026 · morning, pre-market$75,902$75,980 (+0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · overnight$75,491$75,907 (+0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · morning, pre-market$75,650$75,900 (-0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 5, 2026 · overnight$80,490$75,765 (-5.9%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-market$79,673$76,040 (-4.5%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
November 4, 2026 · overnight$77,409$80,520 (+4.0%) Sideways, 45%Breakoutno
November 4, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,447$79,662 (+1.7%) Sideways, 47%Breakoutno
November 3, 2026 · overnight$76,719$77,390 (+0.6%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 3, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,676$78,298 (+1.1%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 2, 2026 · overnight$78,370$76,944 (-1.9%) Sideways, 52%Pullbackno
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,200$77,428 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 1, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

November 8, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 8, 2026 · overnightNovember 7, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 7, 2026 · overnightNovember 6, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 6, 2026 · overnightNovember 5, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 5, 2026 · overnightNovember 4, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 4, 2026 · overnightNovember 3, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 3, 2026 · overnightNovember 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight