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This is the archived brief for October 23, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Friday, October 23, 2026

Bitcoin today, October 23, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · Oct 23, 1:45 AM ET · price at release $81,637

As of 1:30 AM ET Bitcoin traded at $81,637, down 1.6% over 24 hours: overnight it dipped to $80,940 after the Nasdaq's 2.6% plunge on doubts about Meta's AI spending, then recovered to $82,000 in Asian trading.

  • The base case for the day is sideways trading in an $80,500⁠–⁠83,000 range: the $80,000⁠–⁠81,500 zone (the average ETF cost basis) is holding as support, but the $635 million ETF outflow on Oct 22 and crowded longs cap the upside; Polymarket's median for tomorrow is $81,700.
Price when the brief was released
$81,637
Oct 23, 1:45 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 23, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$80,500–$83,000
45%
45%
35%
20%
Resistance
$82,500
$84,000
$84,900
Support
$80,900
$80,000
$78,000
Sideways · 45%
$80,500–$83,000

The $80,000⁠–⁠81,500 zone — the average spot ETF cost basis and dense Binance bids — already held overnight, and by morning Bitcoin had recovered to $82,000. The weekly expiry with $82,000 max pain pulls toward the middle, a DVOL of 37.9 prices no sharp moves, and Polymarket's median for Oct 24 is $81,708 with a 52% chance of upside: the prediction market sees the same corridor.

Pullback · 35%
$78,000–$80,500

The $635 million ETF outflow on Oct 22, the Nasdaq's worst day since June and Brent near $113 weigh on risk assets, and Bitcoin's correlation with tech is high. With 67.8% of Binance accounts long and funding positive, a break below $80,000 could trigger a new wave of long liquidations toward $78,000 — also the max pain for the big Oct 30 expiry. Polymarket gives a 65.5% chance of touching $80,000 in October.

Breakout · 20%
$83,000–$85,000

This needs a tech-stock rebound after the sell-off and a return of ETF inflows. Falling yields help: the US 10-year has dropped below 5%. The most traded options are the $85,000⁠–⁠86,000 calls for Oct 30; but in October the price has already reversed lower twice from $84,000⁠–⁠84,900.

What to watch today
  • Holding $80,000⁠–⁠81,500 — the average ETF cost basis
  • S&P Global flash PMIs — 9:45 AM ET
  • University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations — 10:00 AM ET
  • Bitcoin ETF flows for Oct 23 (out overnight)
  • Oil and attacks on Aramco facilities: Brent above $113
  • Rebound or further sell-off in chip stocks
  • Fed meeting Oct 27⁠–⁠28 and Deribit expiry Oct 30 (08:00 UTC)
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 1:30 AM ET Bitcoin traded at $81,637: down 1.6% over 24 hours, flat over the week (+0.03%), down 3.3% over the month.Binance
  • The 24-hour range was $80,940⁠–⁠82,932: overnight the price dipped below $81,000 for the first time since Oct 18, then recovered to nearly $82,000 in Asian trading on Friday.CoinDesk
  • The Oct 22 daily candle closed at $81,416, 3.2% below the Oct 21 close ($84,093): the whole run toward $84,900 was given back within a day.Binance
7 more facts
  • The weekly range is $80,684⁠–⁠84,898, the monthly range $79,800⁠–⁠87,220: Bitcoin has spent a second month in an $80K–87K corridor.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.64 trillion, a 59.4% share of the total crypto market ($2.75 trillion); the whole market lost 3.9% over 24 hours.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin is 35.3% below its all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025) and down 25% over the year.CoinGecko
  • The Fear & Greed Index fell from 68 to 50 ("Neutral") in a day; it was 63 a week ago and 71 a month ago.alternative.me
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance is near zero (−0.007%, about −$6): US buyers are not buying the dip harder than anyone else.Coinbase
  • As of 9:30 PM ET on Oct 22, ether was down 3.5% over 24 hours (to $2,388), XRP 3.8% and Zcash 7.7%: altcoins fell together with Bitcoin.The Block
  • CoinDesk's DeFi index fell 5.6⁠–⁠6% on Oct 22: Curve −8.2%, Ethena −7.2%, Uniswap −5%; only Monero rose against the market (+4.9%, about $651).CoinDesk

2Technical analysis

  • RSI(14) is 47: neutral territory, not oversold.Binance
  • The daily MACD (−15) has dropped below zero and below its signal line (205); the histogram deepened to −220 from −101 a day earlier: downside momentum has strengthened.Binance
  • The price slipped below the EMA20 ($82,534) and holds just above the EMA50 ($80,871); according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin was testing its 50-day average in the morning.CoinDesk
8 more facts
  • The EMA200 is $76,410 and the 50-week average $76,123; the Sept 14 golden cross remains intact, so the long-term structure is still bullish.Binance
  • Resistance at $84,000⁠–⁠84,900 held again: the price reversed lower from this zone on Oct 13⁠–⁠14 and Oct 21⁠–⁠22.CoinDesk
  • As of Oct 14, Glassnode named $80,000⁠–⁠81,500 the critical support zone (the average cost basis of spot ETF buyers is about $81,500) and $88,000, the cost basis of 6⁠–⁠12-month holders, the main resistance.Crypto Briefing
  • According to Glassnode, large bids on Binance sit near $80,000, and the True Market Mean is about $78,000.Crypto Briefing
  • The Mayer Multiple (price vs. the 200-day average of $72,836) is 1.12, the 61st historical percentile; the price is 21.8% above the 200-week average ($67,012), and Pi Cycle reads 0.48 of 1: no overheating.CoinLab
  • Market temperature (our 8-indicator index) is 36 of 100, "cool": 3 points lower than a day ago.CoinLab
  • Fractals: over the two weeks since Oct 9 the price fell 1.2%; in 6 similar stretches of history the price rose afterward in half the cases, with a median of −1.4% over two weeks; the 50-day window gives a median of −1.0%, the six-month window +6.1% (up in 5 of 6 cases).CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for 12:00 PM ET on Oct 24 is $81,708 (half of outcomes within $80,586⁠–⁠82,975), with a 51.6% chance of ending above the current price: our base "Sideways" range of $80,500⁠–⁠83,000 covers this corridor.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • In the 24 hours to 9:30 PM ET on Oct 22, $440.9 million was liquidated across the market, $397 million of it longs: the drop wiped out leveraged buyers.The Block
  • Another CoinGlass snapshot shows $435 million in liquidations over 24 hours, $385 million of them longs: leverage was skewed toward the upside.CoinDesk
  • On Binance, $25.0 million of longs and only $2.7 million of shorts were liquidated over 24 hours.CoinLab
7 more facts
  • Binance funding turned positive again: +0.0079% per 8 hours (8.6% annualized) versus −0.0018% a day ago and a 30-day average of +0.0030%: longs are paying shorts again.Binance
  • Funding is positive on other venues too: Bybit 6.0% annualized, OKX 8.4%, Hyperliquid 11.0%.Bybit
  • Open interest in Binance perpetuals is 94,710 BTC ($7.73 billion): +0.6% over 24 hours, −0.5% over the week — traders added positions into the drop rather than closing them.Binance
  • 67.8% of Binance accounts are long (2.10 to 1), up from 50.6% a day earlier; top traders are at 1.48 to 1: retail is buying the dip en masse.Binance
  • Market selling dominates: the taker buy/sell ratio is 0.91.Binance
  • Our squeeze risk index is −4 of 100 (84 a day ago): the short-heavy skew is gone and signals are mixed.CoinLab
  • On Oct 22, crypto derivatives volume rose 19% to $226.6 billion, while market-wide open interest fell 2.5% to $141.8 billion.CoinDesk

4Options

  • DVOL is 37.9 (38.8 a week ago): even after the drop, the options market is not pricing sharp moves.Deribit
  • According to CoinDesk data for Oct 22, implied volatility for bitcoin and ether (BVIV, EVIV) sits just above its 2026 lows.CoinDesk
  • The put/call open interest ratio is 0.61; total Deribit open interest is 394,853 BTC (~$32.2 billion).Deribit
4 more facts
  • Weekly expiry on Oct 23 (08:00 UTC): 16,175 BTC, max pain $82,000, puts and calls evenly balanced (1.01).Deribit
  • The main expiry is Oct 30 (08:00 UTC): 136,185 BTC (~$11.1 billion), max pain $78,000, two days after the Fed decision.Deribit
  • The most traded Deribit options on Oct 22 were the $85,000 and $86,000 calls expiring Oct 30: part of the market is betting on a rebound by month-end.CoinDesk
  • 11,554 BTC expire on Nov 6 (max pain $82,000) and 33,785 BTC on Nov 27 (max pain $81,000).Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • On Oct 22, US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $635.5 million after three days of inflows: IBIT −$254.1 million, FBTC −$217.5 million, ARKB −$109.4 million, GBTC −$29.5 million, BITB −$27.4 million.Tokenpost
  • Preliminary SoSoValue data cited by CoinDesk put the outflow at $381 million: final figures for the day range from $381 million to $635 million.CoinDesk
  • The only fund with an inflow on Oct 22 was Morgan Stanley's MSBT (+$2.3 million); ETF trading volume was $2.56 billion, $2.0 billion of it in IBIT.Tokenpost
8 more facts
  • The outflow nearly erased the Oct 21 inflow ($528.4 million); cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $57.32 billion, with fund assets at $104.7 billion (6.41% of Bitcoin's market cap).Tokenpost
  • The price has dropped to the average cost basis of spot ETF investors — about $81,500 by Glassnode's estimate: below that level, the funds' holders are underwater on average.Crypto Briefing
  • In its latest purchase (week to Oct 19), Strategy bought only 267 BTC for $22.1 million at $82,900; it holds 848,517 BTC, and its board expanded the buyback program for its securities to $3 billion.SEC
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of the eventual supply); after Strategy come Metaplanet (44,000 BTC) and Twenty One Capital (43,514).CoinGecko
  • Chinese prosecutors are seeking to confiscate more than 61,800 BTC in a $5.7 billion fraud case (Qian Zhimin); the coins were seized in the UK, and a Tianjin court accepted the request on Oct 13.CoinDesk
  • From Oct 23, HSBC opened its first Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, RedCoin, to retail customers in the PayMe app: transfers and payments at 100,000+ merchants.The Block
  • SoFi launched an interest-bearing, FDIC-insured tokenized deposit for crypto customers.The Block
  • Fireblocks denied an Axios report that it was in talks to sell itself to Visa for about $2.5 billion.The Block

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • MVRV as of Oct 21 is 1.56, the 43rd historical percentile: the average holder is up 56%, far from overheated zones.Coinmetrics
  • The short-term holder cost basis was $74,639 as of Oct 16: the market is 9% above it, so new buyers are still in profit on average.Bgeometrics
  • Glassnode as of Oct 14: long-term holders' realized losses have fallen 85% from the Aug 12 peak, and profitable sales outnumber loss-making ones 4 to 1.Crypto Briefing
4 more facts
  • Stablecoin supply is $304.9 billion: −0.65% over the week and −$1.8 billion over the month — no fresh money is entering crypto.Defillama
  • Polymarket October targets: reaching $85,000 — 44.5% (59.5% a day ago), $87,500 — 20.5%; dropping to $80,000 — 65.5%, to $77,500 — 31.5%.Polymarket
  • Laevitas' Rick Maeda says crypto is trading as a "high-beta tech position," with financing of Meta's AI spending the main driver of the drop.The Block
  • LVRG Research is watching whether $80,000 holds, whether ETF flows persist, and volatility in stocks and oil.The Block

7Mining

  • Hashrate is 1,049 EH/s and difficulty 140.58 trillion; the epoch is 50% complete.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is expected on Oct 29, estimated at +4.3% after +5.9% last time: mining capacity keeps growing.mempool.space
  • Fees are minimal — 1 sat/vB for both fast and within-the-hour confirmation.mempool.space
1 more facts
  • Block height is 972,718, with 77,282 blocks to the halving, expected around Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space

8Macro

  • On Oct 22 the Nasdaq fell 2.6% to 26,009, its worst day since June, and the S&P 500 lost 1.21% to 7,663; the Dow was nearly flat (+0.02%).Techflowpost
  • The SOX semiconductor index plunged 6.7%, with all 30 stocks down: Lam Research −11.8%, AMD −8.1%, Nvidia −4.4%, Micron −6.2%.Techflowpost
  • Meta fell 7%: the company put its long-term spending commitments at about $825 billion versus ~$700 billion in July, and its 5-year CDS rose as high as 119 bp.Techflowpost
10 more facts
  • The VIX rose 14% on the day to 19.0 and 15.6% over the week: investors are moving into defensive assets.Yahoo Finance
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 17 bp to 4.96% on Oct 22, below 5% for the first time since Sept 22, and the 2-year fell 16 bp to 4.65%: money rushed into Treasuries.Treasury
  • Brent rose 4% to $113.17 on Oct 22, its highest since May, and WTI 2.4% to $99.47; the Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Aramco facilities in Yanbu.Techflowpost
  • On the morning of Oct 23, WTI is holding near $100, and gold rebounded to $4,020 from $3,986, its lowest since July 29; the metal is down 3.6% for the week.CoinDesk
  • The DXY dollar index is 101.69 (+0.08% on the day, −0.15% for the week); the yen strengthened to 156.07 per dollar (its strongest since Sept 18) after hot Japanese inflation data, then slipped back to 157.CoinDesk
  • On Oct 22 China's CSI 300 entered a bear market (−20% from its June peak), the Kospi lost 3.5% and the Hang Seng 3%.CoinDesk
  • US initial jobless claims for the week to Oct 17 were 194,000 versus 200,000 expected, the lowest since July: the labor market gives the Fed no reason to ease.CNBC
  • The Fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% after the September hike; US September inflation was 3.7% y/y, core 2.6%.Chase
  • Polymarket on the Oct 27⁠–⁠28 Fed meeting: no change — 93.5%, a 25 bp hike — 5.5%; for Dec 8⁠–⁠9, a 25 bp hike — 71.5%.Polymarket
  • Today at 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global flash PMIs for October; at 10:00 AM ET: the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading with inflation expectations.Techflowpost

9Regulation and events

  • JPMorgan analysts (Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) believe the Clarity Act market-structure bill will not pass in 2026; SEC, CFTC and OCC actions only partly substitute for it and could be reversed under a new administration.The Block
  • Sen. Richard Blumenthal asked Tether and consulting firm Nxum, co-founded by Bo Hines, for details of payments made while Hines was a White House crypto adviser; Tether said it found no wrongdoing.CoinDesk
  • Ireland's central bank fined Coinbase Ireland $3.6 million over failures in segregating customer funds.The Block
4 more facts
  • The Blockchain Association is pushing for crypto tax clarity while the broader bill is stalled in Congress.The Block
  • Ethereum developers postponed the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Hoodi testnet (scheduled for Oct 26) after ChainSecurity flagged a risk to existing contracts; no new date has been set.CoinDesk
  • According to The New York Times, US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for new strikes on Iran after the Nov 3 midterms: geopolitics remains the main risk for oil.Techflowpost
  • US midterm elections are on Nov 3; Kalshi gave Democrats a 69% chance of winning the Senate, which matters for future crypto legislation.CoinDesk

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
18
Base case came true
83%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
100%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 16, 2026$82,202$81,616 (-0.8%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 15, 2026$81,108$82,246 (+0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 14, 2026$83,610$81,682 (-1.8%) Sideways, 45%Pullbackno
October 13, 2026$83,728$83,169 (+1.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 12, 2026$84,017$81,850 (-2.3%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
October 11, 2026$83,078$83,773 (+0.9%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 10, 2026$82,669$82,988 (+0.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 9, 2026$82,374$82,636 (+1.1%) Sideways, 48%Sidewaysyes
October 8, 2026$82,927$81,754 (-1.9%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 7, 2026$84,194$83,322 (-2.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 6, 2026$85,674$85,550 (-0.2%) Sideways, 60%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

October 23, 2026October 22, 2026October 21, 2026October 20, 2026October 19, 2026October 18, 2026October 17, 2026October 16, 2026October 15, 2026October 14, 2026October 13, 2026October 12, 2026October 11, 2026October 10, 2026October 9, 2026October 8, 2026October 7, 2026October 6, 2026