1Price and market
- As of 8:41 AM ET Sunday, Bitcoin traded at $77,980: up 0.6% in 24 hours, down 2.7% on the week and down 7.7% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $77,392–78,285 and the weekly range $76,326–81,971.Binance
- The October monthly candle closed at $77,582 against an open of $83,624, down 7.2% after +6.4% in September; the month's high was $87,220 (Oct 2) and the low $76,326 (Oct 30, the day after the Binance hack).Binance
- Weekend liquidity is thin: 24-hour spot BTC/USDT volume on Binance was 6,634 BTC, about $516M, and withdrawals from the exchange stayed closed until Sunday morning.Binance
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- Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.566 trillion with 59.3% dominance; the whole crypto market was $2.638 trillion (down 2.1% in 24 hours). The price sat 38.2% below the $126,080 all-time high of Oct 6, 2025, and 29.2% lower year over year.CoinGecko
- Altcoins as of 8:40 AM ET: ETH $2,265 (+0.7% in 24 hours) after Friday's plunge to $2,178, BNB $714 (+1.3%) recovered part of its drop to $696, SOL $94.8 (−1.2%), XRP $1.25 (+0.2%), HYPE $88 (+0.7%); the bounce has no leader.CoinGecko
- The Coinbase premium over Binance was −0.04% ($77,828 versus $77,960 adjusted for the USDT rate): US spot demand over the weekend is neutral, with no American buyer visible in the order book.Coinbase
- By CNBC's count, Bitcoin has historically lost 8.3% on average in the first 24 hours after an exchange hack; this time the Oct 30 drop was 4.1% to $77,446, and by Sunday the price had recovered to about $500 above that, a milder reaction than history suggests.CNBC
2Technical analysis
- Daily RSI(14) was 37.6 versus 34.6 on Friday: the indicator has left oversold territory but remains in the lower third of the scale; at the peak of the September rally it was above 70.Binance
- MACD at −1,127 sits below the −651 signal line, with the histogram at −476 and widening for a third day: downside momentum has not yet faded despite the price bounce.Binance
- The 20-day EMA at $80,456 and the 50-day EMA at $80,368 have merged into a single band just above $80,000, the first serious resistance, with the price 3% below it; the 200-day EMA at $76,600 held Friday's wick to $76,326, and the golden cross from Sep 13 formally remains intact.Binance
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- Below the 200-day EMA, supports are tightly stacked: the 50-week moving average at $75,767 and the short-term holder cost basis at $75,826, then the 200-day simple moving average at $73,111; the 200-week moving average at $67,555 is 15.4% below the price, and the Mayer Multiple of 1.07 sits at the 53rd percentile of its history.Coinmetrics
- Glassnode noted on Oct 30 that the price is testing the True Market Mean at $77,900 and could pull back to the short-term holder cost basis at $75,800 without breaking the uptrend structure; the average ETF purchase price is $81,500, which is where break-even selling pressure will begin.X
- Fractals (computed on data through Oct 28, before the hack): for the two-week window, 6 similar segments were found, 4 of which continued higher, with a median of +0.5% but a mean of −3.0% because of the April 2021 analog (−31%); on a six-month horizon 5 of 6 analogs rose, median +6.9%.CoinLab
- Polymarket for 12:00 PM ET Monday: median $77,976, interquartile range $76,776–79,195; the probability of a price above $78,000 is 49.5%, above $80,000 8.5%, below $76,000 9%. That is almost an exact copy of our Sideways base case of $76,500–79,000.Polymarket
- Polymarket bets for all of November: a touch of $80,000 is priced at 79.5%, $75,000 at 69.5%, $85,000 at 41.5%, $70,000 at 32.5%; the market expects a wide corridor, not a trend.Polymarket
- The weekly candle closes at 7:00 PM ET Sunday (00:00 UTC): so far the week is down 2.7% with a high of $81,971 and a low of $76,326; a close above $77,000 would leave a lower wick, a sign the panic was bought, while a close below would leave the low vulnerable.Binance
3Derivatives
- Market-wide liquidations over the 24 hours to 4:31 AM ET were $48.7M: longs $27.8M, shorts $20.9M; just $5.1M in Bitcoin and $7.3M in Ether. For comparison, $1.57B was liquidated in 24 hours on Oct 30, so leverage has been flushed from the market.Chaincatcher
- Per our liquidation feed for Binance (BTC): $144M on Oct 29, $129M on Oct 30 across 2,162 forced closures, $3.9M on Oct 31 and $3.5M on Nov 1 as of 8:40 AM ET, with shorts twice the size of longs: on the bounce it is the bears who are getting hurt.CoinLab
- Open interest in the Binance BTC/USDT perpetual was 97,127 BTC ($7.57B), up 0.7% in 24 hours and 0.75% on the week: positions are not being rebuilt after the crash, and the market is running on low leverage.Binance
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- Funding is at the baseline 0.01% per 8 hours (10.95% annualized) simultaneously on Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid; the 30-day average is 0.0044%. Longs are not overpaying, there is little fuel for an upside squeeze, but there is no seller pressure through funding either.Bybit
- The Binance account long/short ratio is 2.57 (72% long), 1.68 among top traders, and takers are buying and selling evenly (0.99): the crowd is still long, while large accounts are more cautious.Binance
- The futures mark price of $77,945 sits below the $77,975 index, a slight −0.04% backwardation; our squeeze index reads +8 (neutral) versus −45 on Friday: neither overheating nor capitulation.Binance
- CME futures reopen at 6:00 PM ET Sunday, the first print after the weekend; Friday's settlement came before the bounce, so an upward gap is possible, and the market often closes such gaps.CME FedWatch
4Options
- Open interest in BTC options on Deribit was 297,129 BTC ($23.1 billion) with a put/call ratio of 0.66; across all venues it was $28.32 billion, with calls at 58% of positions and daily volume of $1.15 billion.Deribit
- DVOL was 39.4 versus 37.9 a week ago: the market is pricing a daily move of about ±2.1%, or ±$1,600 from the price at publication, a $76,400–79,600 corridor for the day.Deribit
- The Nov 2 expiry at 3:00 AM ET covers 3,460 BTC with max pain at $78,000; the main near-term one is Nov 6, 26,980 BTC with max pain at $80,000 and a put/call ratio of 0.33, with calls concentrated at $82,000, $85,000 and $90,000.Tokenpost
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- The Nov 27 monthly expiry holds 49,268 BTC, max pain $80,000, put/call 0.68; the Dec 25 quarterly holds 136,210 BTC, max pain $75,000, and its largest contracts are the $80,000 call, the $60,000 put and the $100,000 call.Deribit
- The 24-hour volume leaders were the $58,000 put for Nov 27, the $78,500 call for Nov 2 and the $70,000 put for Nov 6 (Bybit): traders are hedging the tail and betting on $78,000 holding on Monday at the same time.Tokenpost
- The 25-delta skew of the November series is −5.0 points in favor of puts: downside protection is getting pricier, but it is far from the panic levels of −10 to −15.Deribit
5ETFs and institutions
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3M on Oct 30, the first day after the hack, per Farside's final table: IBIT −$233.7M, FBTC −$201.0M, ARKB −$129.5M, GBTC −$53.3M, BITB −$25.7M; the preliminary SoSoValue tally without IBIT and FBTC had shown −$208.6M.Financefeeds
- Friday's outflow wiped out four days of inflows totaling $440.7M: the week of Oct 26–30 closed at −$202.6M, and October at −$515.9M versus +$2.65B in September. Cumulative inflows since launch stand at $56.98B, with assets of $98.1B (6.3% of market cap).CryptoSlate
- BTC ETF trading volume on Oct 30 was $6.35B, $5.21B of it in IBIT: institutional investors did not freeze but actively repositioned, and against that backdrop −$643M is 0.65% of assets, not a stampede.SoSoValue
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- Ether ETFs lost $155.9M on Oct 30 (ETHA −$76.6M), a fifth straight day of outflows totaling $431.5M; by Glassnode's count it is the 23rd consecutive trading day of outflows, a record since the 2024 launch, and fund assets have fallen to $13.22B from $17.71B at the start of October.Crypto Briefing
- Strategy bought no Bitcoin in the week of Oct 19–25 and holds 848,517 BTC at an average of $75,446 ($64.02B): at $77,980 its cushion above cost is just 3.4%; the 8-K for the following week is expected Monday around 8:00 AM ET, and the company's dollar reserve is $4.83B.SEC
- The first corporate exit after the hack: the board of Next Technology Holding (Nasdaq: NXTT, Japan) on Oct 30 authorized selling or pledging 5,833 BTC (about $449M), citing exchange vulnerability and quantum computing risk; the company's Bitcoin was not held on Binance, and its market cap is only $7.8M.CoinDesk
- The treasuries of 181 public companies hold 1,312,578 BTC ($102.2B, 6.25% of supply): Strategy 848,517, Metaplanet 44,000, Twenty One Capital 43,514, Strive 43,000, MARA 35,577.CoinGecko
- Tether reported on Oct 30 a $1.5B Q3 profit and $7.95B in excess reserves: the issuer that froze the most funds stolen from Binance is financially sound; meanwhile total stablecoin market cap of $300.2B shrank 1.35% on the week and $8.1B on the month, so there are fewer idle dollars in crypto.Tether
6Sentiment and on-chain
- The Fear and Greed Index is 34 (Fear) versus 30 the day before, 54 a week ago and 72 a month ago; the one-year average is 31 and the year's low is 5: fear is moderate and far from capitulation.alternative.me
- MVRV as of Oct 31 was 1.43 (34th percentile of its history): the average holder is up 43%, so there is no mass of holders to sell at a loss, but the market cannot be called cheap by this metric either.Coinmetrics
- Our market temperature reads 30 out of 100 versus 42 at the start of October: RSI, MVRV, the Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle (0.49) and funding are all in the cold zone, and the only warm component is the 38% drawdown from the high.CoinLab
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- Glassnode: long-term holders are sitting on a block of about 4 million BTC bought at $85,000–118,000 in 2025, an overhang on any approach to $85,000; meanwhile daily realized losses fell from $630M in August to $27M by Oct 24, so seller pressure before the hack was minimal.Glassnode
- On Oct 28, the day before the hack, 14,942 BTC left exchanges, the largest daily outflow in five weeks per Santiment, and a single wallet bought 11,326 BTC ($903M); there is no fresh weekend data on exchange flows yet.Kucoin
- The main on-chain flow of the next 24 hours is withdrawals from Binance: the exchange opened the Bitcoin network first, by 5:00 AM ET had restored BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, Base, DOGE and Optimism, and warned of congestion; the volume of coins leaving Binance will show how much trust has been lost.CNBC
- Of the $6.3 billion stolen, about $3 billion has been located: Tether's CEO says the company froze more than 1.567 billion USDT, Circle $823M in USDC, and Ripple and World Liberty Financial froze their own tokens; but roughly $2.4 billion in BTC and ETH, by TRM Labs' estimate, is beyond the issuers' reach and could reach the market.CoinDesk
7Mining
- Hashrate is 1,072 EH/s on the 7-day average, and difficulty is 148.36 T after the +5.54% adjustment on Oct 29: the network is running at record capacity despite the price drop.mempool.space
- The next difficulty adjustment is due around Nov 12, 1,614 blocks away; through the first 20% of the epoch it is tracking −0.15%, with blocks arriving almost exactly on schedule.mempool.space
- Fees are 1–2 sat/vB for fast confirmation: the mempool is empty, weekend demand for block space is minimal, and miner revenue depends almost entirely on the 3.125 BTC subsidy.mempool.space
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- Block height is 974,130, with 75,870 blocks to the halving, expected around Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space
- Miner economics worsened over the month from both sides: price −7.2% in October with difficulty +5.5%, and revenue per terahash fell more than 10%; public miners hold sizable reserves, with MARA at 35,577 BTC, fifth among corporate treasuries.CoinGecko
8Macro
- Sunday: no US economic data, markets closed. The US returned to standard time at 2:00 AM local time; the opening bell remains 9:30 AM ET and the data releases 8:30 AM ET, but for overseas readers Wall Street now opens an hour earlier relative to their clocks.CNBC
- Friday on Wall Street closed with a sell-off: S&P 500 7,580 (−1.8%, the worst day since Jun 5), Nasdaq 25,437 (−2.9%), Nasdaq-100 −3.5%, Dow 51,770 (−1.1%); the triggers were Amazon's AI spending plans and Intel's cash-burn warning, after Alphabet lost 12% the day before. For the week, the S&P fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq 2%.Yahoo Finance
- The VIX jumped 12.9% to 19.4, and the SOXX semiconductor index fell 9.1% in a day: Bitcoin has traded like leveraged tech for a second month, and a Monday without a Nasdaq reversal will not help it.Yahoo Finance
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- The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10–2 vote, with Hammack and Cook calling for a 25 bp hike; Warsh: "our duty is to bring inflation back down." CME FedWatch after the meeting put 82.6% on a hike on Dec 8–9; Polymarket by Sunday had 70.5% on +25 bp and 27.5% on a pause, with 72.5% for a pause in January.Foxbusiness
- The 2-year Treasury yield on Oct 30 was 4.56% (−5 bp on the day, −13 bp on the week) and the 10-year 4.94% (−4 bp): after the equity sell-off, money moved into bonds, which slightly eases rate pressure on risk assets; DXY 101.88 (−0.16%).Treasury
- Gold plunged 3.3% on Oct 30 to $3,899, its lowest since mid-July, down 4.3% for October and a second straight monthly decline; silver fell below $50. Per UBS, the cause is strong Q3 GDP and expensive oil, which reinforce bets on a Fed hike: digital gold is falling alongside the real thing.Kitco
- WTI crude is at $104.12 (+2.1% on the day), a fourth straight monthly gain: attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli war with Iran hit a record count in October, and expensive oil is the Fed hawks' main argument.Oilprice
- The week of Nov 2–6 (ET): Monday 10:00 AM, ISM manufacturing, with Apple and Palantir earnings after the close; Tuesday, US midterm elections and JOLTS; Wednesday 8:15 AM, ADP, 10:00 AM, ISM services; Thursday 8:30 AM, jobless claims; Friday 8:30 AM, the October jobs report, FactSet consensus +55,000 jobs and 4.2% unemployment after a weak +29,000 in September.CNBC
- Earnings season is disappointing: with S&P 500 profit growth forecast at about 30%, companies are beating estimates by only 1.4% versus a five-year average of 7.5%; BTIG sees a possible test of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average near 7,306, another 3.6% below Friday's close.CNBC
9Regulation and events
- Binance on Sunday began the first phase of restoring withdrawals: the Bitcoin network opened first, then Ethereum and BNB Smart Chain, in order of user demand over the past week; as of Saturday, 90% of the stolen funds had been replenished (80% the day before), with the remainder in illiquid tokens outside the top 10 that the exchange is buying on the market and over the counter.Binance
- Binance says BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC are 100% backed; the hole is being filled from the SAFU fund, part of the futures insurance fund and the corporate treasury, so the exchange, not users, bears the losses.CNBC
- The FBI on Saturday evening blamed North Korea: the loot is being laundered through conversion into ETH, with further laundering stages ahead; TRM Labs linked the attack to the TraderTraitor group by analogy with the Bybit and KelpDAO hacks. Co-CEO Richard Teng acknowledged the attack was more sophisticated than the compromise of a single engineer's laptop.CNBC
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- Aave froze 292 reserves after the Binance hacker borrowed $44.6M through the protocol against stolen collateral, the first time a DeFi protocol has shut down markets en masse because of an exchange hack.Aave
- The week's second breach: Chainalysis reported on Oct 30 that an attack using an AI agent exposed customer names and emails to an intruder, at the very investigations firm that is tracking the funds stolen from Binance.Chainalysis
- Tuesday, Nov 3, brings the US congressional midterm elections: per October Polymarket odds, Democrats have an 85–88% chance of taking the House, with the Senate near 50/50; a change of majority will affect the fate of the stalled CLARITY crypto market structure bill, which the Senate failed to advance on Sep 15.Crypto Briefing
- Regulators are writing rules without Congress: comments on the SEC's proposal on crypto custody for funds and advisers are open until Dec 7, and on the CFTC's request on retail leveraged trading until Dec 14; the Treasury said it will close the SEC-CFTC oversight gap with or without legislation.Bakerbotts
- Calendar: Nov 2, 3:00 AM ET, options expiry on 3,460 BTC, and 12:00 PM ET, Polymarket bets resolve; Nov 6, expiry of 26,980 BTC (max pain $80,000); Nov 12, difficulty adjustment; Nov 27, monthly expiry of 49,268 BTC; Dec 8–9, Fed meeting.Deribit