1Price and market
- As of 1:30 AM ET Bitcoin traded at $84,017: +1.1% over 24 hours, with a 24-hour range of $82,975–84,290. Monday morning started calmly — by the time of this report the Oct 12 candle had covered less than 1% from low to high.Binance
- The Oct 11 daily candle closed at $83,773 (+0.9%) after opening at $82,988, with a high of $84,199 and a low of $82,805 — a 1.7% range versus 0.8% on Saturday: Sunday was livelier than Saturday, and the close landed in the upper third of the day.Binance
- The weekly candle for Oct 5–11 closed at $83,773 against an open of $86,530 (−3.2%), with a high of $86,999 and a low of $80,394. A close above $82,500 means the retest of that level, in Rekt Capital's framework, has passed, even though the week ended red.Binance
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- Over 7 days the price is −2.0%, over 30 days +8.7%. October opened at $83,624: by the morning of Oct 12 Bitcoin was only 0.5% above the monthly open, after a monthly high of $87,220 (Oct 6) and a low of $80,394 (Oct 8).Binance
- Spot BTC/USDT volume on Binance over 24 hours was 8,219 BTC ($687 million) versus 7,199 BTC on Sunday: turnover rose 14% but remains a third of Thursday's (Oct 8) — large players have not yet returned from the weekend.Binance
- Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.69 trillion with 59.7% dominance (Ether 11.1%); the total crypto market at $2.83 trillion. The price is 33.4% below the all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025) and −24.8% year over year.CoinGecko
- Altcoins outpaced Bitcoin over the day: ETH $2,555 (+2.1%), SOL $112.5 (+2.9%), XRP $1.41 (+1.3%), DOGE +2.4% as of 1:45 AM ET, but over the week they all fell harder — ETH −5.6%, SOL −6.0%, XRP −6.1% versus −2.0% for BTC. Monday's bounce looks technical so far.CoinGecko
- The Coinbase premium over Binance, adjusted for the USDT/USD rate ($0.99884), was −0.008% (−0.12% unadjusted): US buyers did not stand out overnight into Monday — US spot demand will not show before the New York open.Coinbase
2Technical analysis
- Daily RSI(14) 55.5 versus 52.1 a day earlier: the indicator has moved clearly above the midpoint — weak but building upward momentum, still far from an overbought 70.Binance
- MACD 886 versus a signal line of 1,325, histogram −439 versus −551 the day before: the negative gap has been narrowing for a fourth straight day; there is no bullish crossover yet, but the lines are converging.Binance
- The Oct 11 candle closed above the EMA20 ($83,365), the first daily close above the average since Oct 6, so it turns from resistance into the first support. Below: EMA50 $80,208, 50-week MA $76,622, EMA200 $75,690. The Sep 13 EMA50/EMA200 golden cross remains in force.Binance
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- Bollinger Bands (20-day): middle $84,264, upper $86,575, lower $81,953. The price sits just below the middle band, which is also the nearest resistance at $84,264; ATR(14) $2,034, meaning a typical daily move of about 2.4%.Binance
- Levels for the day: resistance — the Oct 11 high of $84,199 and the morning high of $84,290, the middle Bollinger Band at $84,264, the $85,000–85,500 zone (Oct 5–6 lows) and the weekly high of $86,999; support — EMA20 $83,365, the Oct 11 low of $82,805, $82,500 and the Oct 9 low of $81,600.Binance
- Fibonacci retracement from the $87,363 swing high: 38.2% — $82,620, 50% — $81,154; the bounce from the 38.2% zone on Thursday and Friday keeps the structure intact for now, and the 7-day SMA near $83,633 has been reclaimed.E27
- CoinLab fractals: six similar two-week stretches of history produced gains in only one case (median −2.0%, mean −4.9%); over 50 days — three of six (median +1.1%); over six months — four of six (median +3.0%). The short horizon remains more cautious than the long one.CoinLab
- Bitcoin's 7-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) is about 83%: with US stocks at records, last week's BTC drop ran against the equity market, and a return of the correlation gives it a chance to catch up with the indexes.E27
- As of 1:30 AM ET Polymarket priced the median for Oct 13 (settlement at 12:00 PM ET) at $84,175 with an interquartile range of $82,868–85,425; the odds of closing above the current $84,000 — 53.5%, above $86,000 — 13.5%, below $82,000 — 8.5%. That matches our base case of a sideways range with an upward tilt.Polymarket
3Derivatives
- Liquidations over the 24 hours to 00:04 UTC Oct 12 (8:04 PM ET on Oct 11) totaled $115.9 million across 33,466 orders: shorts $76.9 million (66%), longs $39.1 million. Bitcoin accounted for $25.5 million, $20.5 million of it shorts; Ether $28.1 million. The largest single position was a $2.5 million ETH short on OKX.CoinGlass
- A later CoinGlass snapshot for the rolling 24 hours already showed $167 million: shorts $115 million versus $52 million of longs, Bitcoin shorts $35.1 million versus $5.8 million of longs — the Sunday-evening push toward $84,000 was driven by squeezing the bears.Kucoin
- The BTCUSDT liquidation stream on Binance (CoinLab's lower-bound estimate) over the 24 hours to 1:40 AM ET: $13.4 million of shorts versus $2.8 million of longs across 515 events; the largest was a 12.3 BTC short ($1.03 million) at $83,880 on the evening of Oct 11. The ratio is 83:17 in favor of shorts.CoinLab
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- BTCUSDT futures open interest on Binance 93,724 BTC ($7.87 billion): +1.9% on the day but −7.0% on the week (from $8.44 billion on Oct 5). Leverage is returning cautiously — OI rising together with the price points to new longs, not just short covering.Binance
- Binance funding +0.0018% per 8 hours (1.96% annualized) after −0.0027% and −0.0010% on Sunday; the 30-day average is +0.0038%. Shorts have stopped paying longs, but the rate remains below the neutral 0.01% — no overheating among longs.Binance
- Funding elsewhere: Bybit +0.0047% (5.1% annualized), Hyperliquid +0.0056% (6.1%), OKX −0.0002% (−0.2%). The spread between exchanges has widened: longs on Hyperliquid pay noticeably more than on Binance.Bybit
- The long/short ratio by accounts on Binance was 1.41 (58.6% long), 1.55 among top traders, and takers bought versus sold at 1.12 — retail is still overloaded with longs, which limits the fuel for a squeeze higher.Binance
- The CoinLab squeeze index read −2 (neutral) versus +63 yesterday: funding has turned positive, the day's short liquidations have released the "spring", and skew on the Oct 30 options is −4.0 — puts remain pricier than calls, which is the main argument for caution.CoinLab
- Open interest in CME Bitcoin futures has topped $10 billion (from $5 billion in July): the widening basis and institutional cash-and-carry trades, per OKX analysts, make the market more sensitive to an unwind of the arbitrage when rates fall.Okx
4Options
- BTC options open interest on Deribit 374,893 BTC ($31.4 billion) versus 376,465 BTC a day earlier; put/call by OI 0.58 — calls outnumber puts almost two to one, and the upside tilt persists.Deribit
- DVOL 37.9 versus 37.0 yesterday and 36.5 a week ago: implied volatility has risen for a fourth straight day ahead of the Oct 14 CPI but remains low — the market is pricing a daily move of about 2%.Deribit
- Today, Oct 12, at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET) 2,757 BTC expire with max pain at $83,000 and a call tilt (put/call 0.51); tomorrow, Oct 13 — just 956 BTC with max pain at $83,500. The day's expiries are too small to move the price.Deribit
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- The nearest large expiry is Friday, Oct 16, at 08:00 UTC: 15,235 BTC ($1.28 billion) with max pain at $83,000 and a put tilt of 1.42 — this is where the hedges for Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI are concentrated.Deribit
- The monthly expiry on Oct 30 — 140,723 BTC ($11.8 billion, about 35% of all Deribit OI) with max pain at $78,000 and put/call 0.47: twice as many calls as puts; the largest strike is the $95,000 call (about 25,000 BTC), and together with $90,000 and $100,000 — about 54,750 BTC of bets on a rally.Crypto Briefing
- Quarterly expiries: Nov 27 — 23,565 BTC (max pain $80,000), Dec 25 — 126,395 BTC (max pain $75,000, put/call 0.61), Mar 26, 2027 — 38,439 BTC (max pain $76,000). Max pain on the longer-dated series sits $6,000–9,000 below spot — option sellers benefit from a price that drifts lower.Deribit
- 25-delta skew on the Oct 30 series −4.0 versus −2.9 a day earlier (106 contracts in the calculation): puts keep getting pricier relative to calls — demand for downside protection persists even as spot rises, at odds with the "bullish" OI.Deribit
- Among the most active contracts on Deribit on Oct 10 was the $88,000 put for Oct 30 — hedging demand persists above spot, meaning part of the "bullish" call OI is covered writing rather than outright bets on a rally.Tokenpost
5ETFs and institutions
- Last trading day: spot BTC ETFs took in +$21.1 million on Oct 9 (IBIT +$22.4 million, HODL +$2.3 million, FBTC −$3.6 million) — the week's only inflow after two days of $731 million in outflows. No data for Oct 12 until the evening: US exchanges are open, but settlement is pushed to Oct 13 because of Columbus Day.Kucoin
- The week of Oct 5–9 closed with $681 million of outflows (−$679 million per Farside): FBTC lost $380 million, IBIT was almost flat (+$1 million). Since the start of October −$386 million — after three weeks of inflows, the month is in the red so far.Crypto Briefing
- BTC ETF assets $105.8 billion (6.38% of Bitcoin's market cap), cumulative net inflows since launch $57.1 billion; IBIT has accumulated $65.7 billion, FBTC $10.5 billion — data as of Oct 9.Tokenpost
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- ETH ETFs lost $56.1 million on Oct 9 — a ninth straight day of outflows, −$542 million for the week (the largest weekly outflow since late January), $477 million of it from BlackRock's ETHA. Ether remains the weak link in institutional demand.Kucoin
- Strategy bought just 334 BTC for $28.7 million (at $85,839) during Sep 28–Oct 4 and holds 848,000 BTC at an average of $75,441; meanwhile $154 million of cash went to buying back its own shares. The 8-K for last week usually comes out Monday before the open — expected around 8:00 AM ET.SEC
- Public companies hold 1.30 million BTC ($109 billion, 6.2% of supply) across 180 treasuries: Strategy 848,000, Twenty One Capital 43,514, Metaplanet 43,000, MARA 35,303, Bitcoin Standard Treasury 30,021, Strive 28,923.CoinGecko
- Metaplanet closed Q3 with 44,000 BTC (+1,000 for the quarter after selling 10,000 and buying back 11,000) and on Oct 5 authorized putting up to 10–15% of assets into yield-bearing instruments; an mNAV of 0.80 makes new share issuance difficult. The Tokyo exchange is closed on Oct 12 (Sports Day), and no new purchases have been announced.CoinDesk
- CleanSpark mined 529 BTC in September and sold 702 BTC, cutting its holdings to 13,530 BTC; the company closed a $2.28 billion secured notes offering and is ending its monthly updates. Listed miners remain net sellers.Investing.com
6Sentiment and on-chain
- The Fear & Greed Index read 69 ("greed") versus 61 yesterday, 70 a week ago and 63 a month ago: +8 points in a day — the sharpest one-day jump in three weeks; sentiment caught up with the price faster than the price itself rose.alternative.me
- MVRV 1.55 as of Oct 11 (42nd historical percentile): the average holder sits on a 55% profit, far from the overheated zone (above 2.4). The short-term holder cost basis was $74,136 as of Oct 5 — spot is 13% above the cohort's average entry, so this group has no reason to sell at a loss.Coinmetrics
- The Mayer Multiple is 1.17 against a 200-day SMA of $72,018 (67th percentile); the 200-week MA is $66,520, with the price 26.3% above it; Pi Cycle 0.46 (111-day SMA $71,713 versus twice the 350-day at $154,810) — cycle-top signals are far off.CoinLab
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- The CoinLab "market temperature" stands at 39 out of 100 versus 38 yesterday and 42 on Oct 6: the contributions of greed (69) and RSI (59) are rising, while the valuation metrics (MVRV 28, Mayer 32, 200WMA 18) keep the reading in the cool zone.CoinLab
- Per Glassnode, throughout the entire bear cycle Bitcoin never closed a day below its realized price and NUPL stayed positive; analysts call $84,000–85,000 — the largest cluster of long-term holder coins — the critical support, with a target at the MVRV mean price of about $96,700 and a risk of a move to $77,000 on a breakdown.Techflowpost
- Santiment: wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC added 86,702 BTC (about $7 billion) in the three weeks to Oct 8 — the most since Apr 23 — and in a single day 24,073 BTC ($2 billion) left exchanges, taking exchange balances to a 7-month low. The price has not yet responded to the accumulation.247wallst
- CryptoQuant: during Oct 7–9 a net 11,325 BTC flowed onto exchanges (4,345 BTC on Oct 9), although Oct 3–9 as a whole still shows a net outflow of 7,520 BTC; Binance reserves have fallen by almost 40,000 BTC since Sep 20, and the 30-day inflow of whale stablecoins to Binance is up 40% — there is cash available for buying.CryptoQuant
- Stablecoins: market cap $313.0 billion, −0.29% on the week and +0.86% over the month (+$2.67 billion). No new money entered the system over the week — the bounce is running on existing liquidity so far.Defillama
- Ledger is investigating thefts from customers who bought devices through reseller CryptoBilis in Southeast Asia since Oct 9: damage estimates range from $72 million to $92.9 million across 311 wallets on five networks, most of it USDT on Tron. As of Oct 11 the Liquid Network had still not resumed L-BTC redemptions: reserves cover 85.8% of tokens.Crypto Briefing
7Mining
- Hashrate per mempool.space's estimate 1,008 EH/s (1,016 EH/s yesterday, 984 EH/s on Oct 9), difficulty 132.72 T, block height 971,049. The network has held near the 1,000 EH/s mark for a third day.mempool.space
- The difficulty retarget is expected Oct 16: 67.1% of the epoch done, 663 blocks remaining, the estimate is already +5.3% (+3.2% yesterday) — blocks came in noticeably faster than the 10-minute target over the weekend. The last adjustment, on Oct 3, was almost flat (−0.03%).mempool.space
- Fees: 1 sat/vB for both the next block and the next hour — the mempool is empty, transactions clear at the minimum rate, and miner income consists almost entirely of the 3.125 BTC block subsidy.mempool.space
3 more facts
- 78,951 blocks remain until the halving, expected Apr 12, 2028: the subsidy will drop to 1.5625 BTC, and with fees at the current 1 sat/vB, miner margins will depend on price alone.mempool.space
- Public miners control about 414 EH/s (42% of the network) per tracker data as of Oct 9; CleanSpark and MARA shares have lost 40% and 51% over the year — the market punishes those who sell mined coins and re-rates those who pivoted to AI infrastructure.Bitcoinminingstock
- CleanSpark was running at 50 EH/s as of Sep 30 (September average 36 EH/s), with 5,432 BTC mined year to date; MARA holds about 70 EH/s and Riot 42.5 EH/s per Q1 data — no fresh October reports from them yet.Chaincatcher
8Macro
- The US Treasury market is closed on Oct 12 for Columbus Day (SIFMA recommendation); stock exchanges operate on a normal schedule, 9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET, and trades from Friday and Monday will settle on Oct 13. The Tokyo exchange is also closed (Sports Day).Yahoo Finance
- Treasury yields at the last close on Oct 9: 2-year 4.80% (+5 bp on the day, −3 bp on the week), 10-year 5.24% (+2 bp, −4 bp on the week). The Fed funds rate is 3.75–4.00% after the Sep 16 hike — 2-year notes trade 80–105 bp above the policy rate, meaning the market is pricing further tightening.Treasury
- Fed: the meeting is Oct 27–28, with the decision on Wednesday, Oct 28, at 2:00 PM ET. Polymarket gives 83.5% for no change and 16.5% for a 25 bp hike; for December (Dec 8–9) — 74.5% for a hike. CME FedWatch on Oct 10 put an October pause at 81.6%.Polymarket
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- September CPI is due Wednesday, Oct 14, at 8:30 AM ET: consensus 3.7% y/y on the headline index (3.4% in August) with +0.6% m/m on energy; core — about +0.2% m/m and 2.4% y/y. A core print of 0.3% or higher would revive talk of an October hike; 0.2% or lower would cement a pause until December.FXStreet
- The week's calendar: Oct 13 — earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo; Oct 14 — CPI and the Fed's Beige Book (2:00 PM ET); Oct 15 — PPI, retail sales and jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET; Oct 16 — industrial production. Also this week: China CPI and UK labor data.Newsquawk
- Fed speakers: Oct 12 — Hammack (Cleveland) at 12:10 PM ET; Oct 13 — Waller (on AI) and Barkin; Oct 14 — Bowman; Oct 15 — a conversation between Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and IMF chief Georgieva at the IMF–World Bank meetings in Bangkok. Any hint of an October hike would hit risk assets.Federal Reserve
- US stocks at the Oct 9 close: S&P 500 7,812 (+0.6% on the day, +1.2% on the week), Nasdaq 27,366 (+0.6%), VIX 14.8 (−3.7%) — the indexes sit at records at the start of earnings season. Bitcoin lagged them by 3–4 percentage points over the week.Yahoo Finance
- Oil: Brent $105.10 in early Asian trading on Oct 12 (+0.4%), and $105.48 (+0.7%) by Sunday evening US time after Houthi strikes on Riyadh and attacks on two tankers; WTI closed Oct 9 at $90.49 (−1.5%, +1.2% on the week). Expensive oil supports inflation expectations and yields.Oilprice
- Gold $4,212 (−0.1% on the day, +1.3% on the week), DXY 102.24 (+0.03%, +0.07% on the week): safe havens sit near their highs and the dollar is not weakening — a neutral-to-negative backdrop for Bitcoin, whose turn higher is coming without help from macro.Yahoo Finance
- Oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz in the week to Oct 7 was 8.5 million barrels a day, 40% below normal (Kpler); since July CENTCOM has disabled four vessels, turned back 135 and destroyed 10 Iran-linked tankers. US–Iran talks are deadlocked, and no breakthrough is expected in the coming weeks.Aljazeera
9Regulation and events
- Saudi Arabia: a Houthi strike on Riyadh's airport on Oct 10 killed at least 13 people and injured more than 300 (a US citizen among the dead); a second strike on Terminal 4 on Oct 11 killed one more; the airport is closed, and the coalition promises a "decisive response". Trump said the US "may" join strikes on the Houthis and will decide quickly.Nbcnews
- Iran: on Oct 10 the IRGC said a supertanker hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz; on Oct 11 UKMTO logged several incidents in the strait and the Gulf of Oman, and 22 sailors were rescued from a burning tanker off the UAE. Tehran demands a return to the June memorandum and support for the Iran–Oman deal on shipping routes; Israel votes on Oct 27, the US on Nov 3.Aljazeera
- On Oct 5 the CFTC published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPRM) for retail commodity transactions in crypto assets, and on Oct 9 it proposed folding event contracts into swaps regulation — a response to state lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket. In parallel the SEC is advancing Regulation Crypto Assets and temporary relief for trading tokenized securities.Bakerbotts
5 more facts
- The crypto market structure bill (CLARITY Act) remains frozen after the failed procedural vote in the Senate on Sep 15 (49–50); the Senate returns to legislative work only on Nov 9, and a comprehensive law before 2027 is considered unlikely. Stablecoins are already regulated under the GENIUS Act.Thehill
- The IMF–World Bank meetings in Bangkok start this week, EU leaders gather on Ukraine and energy security, and Fed Chair Warsh speaks on Oct 15 — a concentration of global statements on rates and oil.Substack
- Final settlement of the Polymarket price ladder for Oct 13 is at 12:00 PM ET on Oct 13; the "up or down" market for Oct 13 is priced at exactly 50/50 on a negligible $27 of volume — prediction-market traders see no directional move on Monday.Polymarket
- Monthly targets on Polymarket ($5.5 million of volume): $85,000 in October — 88%, $87,500 — 58.5%, $90,000 — 39.5%, $100,000 — 3%; to the downside: $82,500 — 80%, $80,000 — 51.5%, $75,000 — 18.5%. The market expects both $85,000 and $82,500 to be touched before month-end — that is, a continuation of the wide range.Polymarket
- Hacks since the start of October: Finbold counted 11 incidents in the first nine days of the month; $1.17 billion was stolen in Q3. The exploit of Limit Break's Payment Processor (formerly the Magic Eden marketplace), ongoing since Oct 8, has affected 911 wallets — a backdrop for new security demands in Congress.Finbold