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Market cap$2.56T-3.0%BTC dominance59.3%Fear & Greed25BTC$75,858+0.3%ETH$2,234+0.7%BNB$693.94+0.1%XRP$1.16-2.1%SOL$89.65-0.1%TRX$0.3195+0.2%ZEC$1,262-6.2%HYPE$77.47-0.6%XMR$610.32-1.7%DOGE$0.0717-1.1%
This is the archived brief for November 7, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Saturday, November 7, 2026

Bitcoin today, November 7, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Nov 7, 8:43 AM ET · price at release $75,902Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:43 AM ET Saturday, Bitcoin traded at $75,902: up 0.3% over 24 hours within a $74,888⁠–⁠76,250 range and down 2.2% on the week, holding the 50-week average at $75,556 for a third day after Friday's $1.27 billion liquidation wave.

  • There is no opening bell today and no US data.
  • Our base case for the next 24 hours is a range of $74,800⁠–⁠77,200 (55%): weekend volume is thin, max pain for the Sunday and Monday expiries sits at $76,000, and Polymarket's Sunday median ($75,801) is almost exactly the report price.
  • The headwinds are spot ETF outflows ($1.28 billion month-to-date) and roughly 80% odds of a December Fed hike after a hot jobs report.
Price when the brief was released
$75,902
Nov 7, 8:43 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 7, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$74,800–$77,200
55%
55%
27%
18%
Resistance
$76,800
$78,000
$80,000
Support
$75,500
$74,900
$73,200
Sideways · 55%
$74,800–$77,200

Weekend: no US trading, spot volume down to 12,200 BTC, and a DVOL of 39.7 implies about ±$1,580. Max pain for the Nov 8 and Nov 9 expiries is $76,000, and Polymarket's Nov 8 median is $75,801 with an interquartile range of $74,837⁠–⁠76,932. The 50-week average at $75,556, the short-term holder cost basis at $75,789 and Strategy's $75,451 cost basis support price from below, with the 200-day EMA at $76,814 capping it.

Pullback · 27%
$72,500–$74,800

The 24-hour low of $74,888 is a 30-day low, MACD is negative, ETFs lost $410⁠–⁠430 million on each of the last two days, stablecoins are shrinking and December hike odds are near 80%. Retail is long (75.8% of accounts), the squeeze index rose to +13 and Polymarket puts 52.6% on a lower price: a break of $74,900 in thin weekend liquidity could trigger stops toward $73,000⁠–⁠73,200 (the 200-day average and Wintermute's target).

Breakout · 18%
$77,200–$79,500

Extreme Fear (25) is a typical bounce zone, fractals lean higher (the two-week window: 4 of 6 cases, median +5.3%), coins are leaving exchanges, a whale bought 3,009 BTC and skew has eased for a third straight reading. A move back above the 200-day EMA at $76,814 opens the way to $78,000⁠–⁠78,500 (Nov 13 max pain and resistance), but without ETF inflows $80,000 within a day is unlikely.

What to watch today
  • Sunday 08:00 UTC: 2,554 BTC expire on Deribit, max pain $76,000
  • Holding the 50-week average at $75,556 and the $74,888 low in thin weekend liquidity
  • Daily candle close at 00:00 UTC (7:00 PM ET) and the weekly close on Sunday night into Nov 9
  • CME futures and Asian markets reopen Sunday evening (6:00 PM ET)
  • Monday: a possible Strategy BTC purchase update
  • Tuesday, Nov 10, 8:30 AM ET: October US CPI
  • Nov 13: difficulty adjustment (est. −4.2%) and expiry of 33,405 BTC with max pain at $78,000
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 8:43 AM ET Saturday, Bitcoin traded at $75,902: up 0.3% over 24 hours, down 2.2% over 7 days and 7.2% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $74,888⁠–⁠76,250.Binance
  • The 24-hour low of $74,888 is a 30-day low; from the weekly high of $81,196 the price gave up as much as 7.8%.Binance
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 12,200 BTC (about $925 million), even lower than this morning's 15,400 BTC: a typical weekend market.Binance
5 more facts
  • On Friday Bitcoin was down as much as 5.2% over 24 hours before recovering to about $76,100 — a rebound after Thursday's slide, when the Nasdaq fell 5.5%.CoinDesk
  • Altcoins were nearly flat on Saturday: Ether at $2,248 (+0.95%), Solana at $90.2 (+0.7%), XRP at $1.178 (−0.8%), BNB at $695 (+0.5%).Finwire
  • Bitcoin's market cap was $1.52 trillion and the total crypto market $2.57 trillion (−2.9% over 24 hours); BTC dominance was 59.3%, ETH 10.6%.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin was 39.9% below its record of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025) and down 23.8% year over year.CoinGecko
  • The Coinbase premium was −0.008%, essentially zero: US buyers were not buying the dip over the weekend, but were not selling harder than everyone else either.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) was 38.1: weak, but still above the oversold level of 30.Binance
  • MACD at −1,473 sat below its signal line at −1,143, with the histogram at −329 (−322 this morning): downside momentum persists but is barely building.Binance
  • Price was below the 20-day EMA ($78,905), the 50-day EMA ($79,672) and the 200-day EMA ($76,814); the 200-day EMA is the nearest resistance, about $900 above.Binance
6 more facts
  • The 50-week simple average stood at $75,556 and price has held right on it for a third day; the 50-week EMA (~$78,400) has already been lost, with weekly support near $75,000.CoinDesk
  • Wintermute sees downside targets at $73,000 and $68,000 and says Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold $80,000 to show strength; after the 200-day EMA, the next resistance is $78,500.Finwire
  • The 200-day simple average was $73,243 and the Mayer Multiple 1.04 (50th historical percentile): price is 4% above its long-term trend.CoinLab
  • The 200-week average was $67,651, with price 12.2% above it; the Pi Cycle ratio of 0.5 is far from overheated.CoinLab
  • Fractals: the two-week stretch (−6.3%) resembles 6 historical episodes, 4 of which were followed by gains, median +5.3%; the 50-day window shows a median of +2.9% (4 of 6), the six-month one +26.5% (6 of 6).CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for Nov 8 (17:00 UTC) was $75,801, with an interquartile range of $74,837⁠–⁠76,932 and 47.4% odds of trading above the report price: bettors expect a range with a slight downside tilt, in line with our base case.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Open interest in Binance BTC futures was 96,468 BTC ($7.32 billion): up 1.3% over 24 hours and down 2.5% over the week — leverage is slowly coming back.Binance
  • Binance funding slipped to roughly zero (−0.0002% per 8 hours) versus a 30-day average of 0.0059%: demand for leveraged longs has cooled.Binance
  • Funding elsewhere stayed positive: Bybit 0.0045%, OKX 0.0056%, Hyperliquid 0.01% per 8 hours — shorts are not paying longs.Bybit
5 more facts
  • Binance futures traded just below spot: mark price $75,864 versus an index of $75,898 — a slight edge for sellers.Binance
  • Binance's long/short account ratio was 3.13 (75.8% long), versus 2.09 among top traders: retail is holding longs while large players are more cautious.Binance
  • The taker buy/sell ratio was 0.975: market sellers had a slight edge.Binance
  • CoinLab's squeeze index rose to +13 (−3 this morning), with 44% agreement across metrics: a mild long-side skew that leaves the market exposed to a downside flush.CoinLab
  • The liquidation wave has passed: in the 24 hours into Friday, $1.27 billion in positions were wiped out, over $1.1 billion of them longs; on Saturday Binance saw about $10 million in long and $3.6 million in short liquidations.CoinDesk

4Options

  • Tomorrow at 08:00 UTC, 2,554 BTC in options expire on Deribit with max pain at $76,000 and a put/call of 1.04; another 7,647 BTC expire Monday with the same max pain — $76,000 is the weekend magnet.Deribit
  • The next large expiry is Nov 13: 33,405 BTC, max pain $78,000, put/call 0.68.Deribit
  • The monthly Nov 27 expiry holds 71,630 BTC with max pain at $80,000; the Dec 25 expiry holds 140,436 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The DVOL volatility index was 39.7 versus 40.6 a week earlier: options imply a daily move of about ±2.1% (±$1,580).Deribit
  • The put/call ratio across all open interest was 0.69, with open interest at 339,619 BTC ($25.7 billion).Deribit
  • The Nov 27 skew was −3.7 (−4.2 this morning, −5.8 a day earlier): puts remain pricier than calls, but demand for downside protection keeps easing.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $411.9 million on Nov 6, a second straight day of outflows: IBIT about −$403 million, with FBTC (+$42.8 million) the only fund taking in money.Tokenpost
  • Outflows totaled $430.2 million on Nov 5; month-to-date the funds have lost about $1.28 billion, with Wednesday the only day of inflows.Finwire
  • Cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $55.7 billion, with assets of $95.9 billion (6.28% of Bitcoin's market cap).Tokenpost
4 more facts
  • Ether ETFs lost $93.3 million on Nov 6 and $365.2 million over five straight days: money is leaving Ether funds just as it is leaving Bitcoin funds.Coinotag
  • Strategy holds 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451: Bitcoin traded just 0.6% above the company's cost basis.The Block
  • Strategy's latest purchase was 811 BTC for $65.5 million (about $80,846 each) in the week to Nov 1, funded by selling 1.18 million MSTR shares; its next purchase update usually comes on Monday.The Block
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of supply) worth $98.6 billion; after Strategy, the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC) and Twenty One (43,514 BTC).CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index stood at 25 (Extreme Fear), versus 28 a day ago, 30 a week ago and 64 a month ago.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature was 28 out of 100 (32 on Nov 5): across eight metrics, the market sits in the cold zone of the cycle.CoinLab
  • MVRV was 1.42 (as of Nov 2), the 33rd historical percentile: holders are in moderate profit on average.Coinmetrics
5 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis was about $75,789 (as of Oct 31): price is sitting right on it, leaving recent buyers roughly at breakeven.Bgeometrics
  • On Nov 6 a whale dormant for more than a year bought 3,009 BTC (about $228 million), and another 1,286 BTC (~$98 million) was withdrawn from Binance.Blockonomi
  • About 11,000 BTC left exchanges on a net basis on Nov 5: coins are moving into cold storage.CryptoQuant
  • Long-term holders cut their balances by 248,000 BTC (about $17.4 billion) in Q3 — selling of older coins has weighed on the market since summer.Analyticsinsight
  • Stablecoin supply was $294.0 billion: down 2.2% on the week and 4.9% (about $15 billion) over 30 days — no fresh money is flowing into crypto.Defillama

7Mining

  • Hashrate was about 1,012 EH/s, with difficulty at 148.4 T.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is due around Nov 13 (in 808 blocks), estimated at −4.2%; the previous one was +5.5%.mempool.space
  • Fees were minimal: 4 sat/vB for fast confirmation, 1 sat/vB within an hour.mempool.space
3 more facts
  • Block height was 974,936, with 75,064 blocks to the halving (around April 2028).mempool.space
  • Shares of miners that pivoted to AI data centers fell 15⁠–⁠20% this week: after the Democrats' midterm win, investors fear a slower data-center buildout.CoinDesk
  • On Nov 5 VanEck called miners oversold after an average 35% October drop; on Nov 4 Bernstein cut price targets for seven miners by up to 54%.CoinDesk

8Macro

  • It is Saturday: US markets are closed and no 8:30 AM ET data was released.Bls
  • On Friday the Nasdaq rebounded 1.1% to 24,579 and the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,377; for the week the S&P 500 lost 2.7% (its worst week since April 2025) and the Nasdaq 3.4%.Upi
  • The October jobs report came in hot: +165,000 payrolls versus forecasts of 59,000⁠–⁠65,000, unemployment at 4.1% and wages up 0.4% on the month.CNBC
6 more facts
  • Odds of a Fed hike on Dec 9 were around 80% on CME FedWatch and 76.5% on Polymarket (hold: 21.5%).Beinsure
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Nov 6 that rates will likely have to rise further despite the slide in tech stocks.CNBC
  • The 2-year Treasury yield was 4.51% (+5 bp) and the 10-year 4.86% (+2 bp) as of Nov 6: tight money is weighing on risk assets.Treasury
  • The DXY dollar index was 102.3 (+0.7% on Friday), gold $4,075 (−0.9%, but +4.5% over 5 days) and oil $90.8 (−12.8% over 5 days).Yahoo Finance
  • The VIX was 25.6: down 9% on Friday but up 32% on the week — fear in equities remains elevated.Yahoo Finance
  • The key event next week is October CPI on Tuesday, Nov 10, at 8:30 AM ET; forecasts call for +0.28% m/m headline and +0.21% core, with PPI due the same week.FXStreet

9Regulation and events

  • House Democrats are reportedly rewriting the CLARITY Act: more power for the SEC, less for the CFTC, and ethics limits on crypto businesses tied to the president and officials.Benzinga
  • The SEC currently has 2 of 5 commissioners and the CFTC 1 of 5 (Michael Selig); the new Congress convenes on Jan 3, 2027.Forbes
  • The US Treasury is reportedly moving to cut off the MEXC exchange, alleging at least $16 billion in suspicious transactions from 2021 to 2026.Finwire
5 more facts
  • The Binance hack (since Oct 29) totals about $6.3 billion and the FBI attributes it to North Korea's TraderTraitor group; Binance says it has replenished about 95% of the stolen assets, with about $3 billion frozen.Crypto Briefing
  • Trump-linked World Liberty Financial plans a buyback of its WLFI token after a 66% year-to-date slide.CoinDesk
  • Polymarket's November odds: 58.5% for touching $80,000, also 58.5% for $72,500 and 41.5% for $70,000 — bettors expect a wide range.Polymarket
  • Upcoming Fed decisions: Dec 8⁠–⁠9 (hike at 76.5% on Polymarket) and Jan 26⁠–⁠27 (hold at 73.5%).Polymarket
  • The weekly candle closes at 00:00 UTC on Nov 9 (7:00 PM ET Sunday); CME futures reopen Sunday at 6:00 PM ET.CME FedWatch

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
41
Base case came true
76%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
95%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 6, 2026 · overnight$75,491$75,907 (+0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · morning, pre-market$75,650$75,900 (-0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 5, 2026 · overnight$80,490$75,765 (-5.9%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-market$79,673$76,040 (-4.5%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
November 4, 2026 · overnight$77,409$80,520 (+4.0%) Sideways, 45%Breakoutno
November 4, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,447$79,662 (+1.7%) Sideways, 47%Breakoutno
November 3, 2026 · overnight$76,719$77,390 (+0.6%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 3, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,676$78,298 (+1.1%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 2, 2026 · overnight$78,370$76,944 (-1.9%) Sideways, 52%Pullbackno
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,200$77,428 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 1, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

November 7, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 7, 2026 · overnightNovember 6, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 6, 2026 · overnightNovember 5, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 5, 2026 · overnightNovember 4, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 4, 2026 · overnightNovember 3, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 3, 2026 · overnightNovember 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight