Sign in
ENRU
Market cap$2.54T-2.7%BTC dominance59.6%Fear & Greed29BTC$75,412-0.9%ETH$2,139-4.4%BNB$689.90-1.1%XRP$1.11-4.2%SOL$87.54-2.3%TRX$0.3174-0.9%ZEC$1,223-3.8%HYPE$76.32-1.5%XMR$602.00-0.5%DOGE$0.0704-1.2%
This is the archived brief for November 9, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Monday, November 9, 2026

Bitcoin today, November 9, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Nov 9, 8:44 AM ET · price at release $74,772Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:30 AM ET, an hour ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded at $74,772: down 1.7% over 24 hours after an overnight drop to $73,510 — the lowest since Aug 21 — and a weekly close below the 50-week average; Europe was quiet and there was no US data this Monday.

  • Base case for the next 24 hours: sideways at $73,300⁠–⁠76,000 (50%) ahead of Tuesday's 8:30 AM ET CPI print — Polymarket's median for tomorrow is $74,755, right at the price.
  • Key risks: Nvidia down 4⁠–⁠5% premarket on its CEO scandal, ETF outflows ($1.28B last week) and a price just below Strategy's cost basis ($75,456).
Price when the brief was released
$74,772
Nov 9, 8:44 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 9, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$73,300–$76,000
50%
50%
30%
20%
Resistance
$75,500
$76,100
$76,800
Support
$73,500
$73,200
$72,500
Sideways · 50%
$73,300–$76,000

Big players usually wait for CPI, which lands Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET — right at the end of our 24-hour window. DVOL at 40.6 implies about ±$1,590; Polymarket's median for tomorrow is $74,755 with an interquartile range of $73,248⁠–⁠75,976, and tomorrow's expiry max pain is $75,000. The 200-day average ($73,150⁠–⁠73,224) and the $73,510 overnight low hold below; the 50-week average near $75,500 and Strategy's $75,456 cost basis cap above. Strategy's 1,036 BTC buy was too small to turn the market.

Pullback · 30%
$71,300–$73,300

The week closed below the 50-week average, MACD is accelerating lower, ETFs lost $1.28B last week, stablecoins are shrinking and a December Fed hike is priced at 76.5⁠–⁠80%. Retail is 73.7% long with positive funding, and puts at $70,000⁠–⁠72,000 are in demand. A weak Nvidia open plus another ETF outflow for Monday could break the 200-day at $73,150 and the Aug 21 low of $73,005, opening the way to $72,000 and below.

Breakout · 20%
$76,000–$77,800

Fear (29), a 28/100 temperature and fractals (two-week window: 6 of 6 up, median +5.6%) mark a typical bounce zone; US index futures are rising on lower oil, and a Hormuz deal with Iran would ease inflation risks. A move back above $75,500 (50-week) and $75,725 (short-term holder cost basis) opens the way to the EMA200 at $76,800 and $77,000 (Nov 13 max pain); further gains within a day are unlikely without ETF inflows.

What to watch today
  • Today, 8:40 AM ET: Fed's Michelle Bowman speaks; Austan Goolsbee at 10:00 AM, Thomas Barkin at 12:15 PM ET
  • Today, 9:30 AM ET: US open — Nvidia's first session after the Huang scandal (−4⁠–⁠5% premarket)
  • Today: Trump meets Qatar's prime minister on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
  • Today after 4:00 PM ET: earnings from MARA, BitGo, Exodus and Trump Media; overnight — Monday's spot BTC ETF flows
  • Tuesday, 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC): 2,039 BTC Deribit expiry, max pain $75,000
  • Tuesday, 8:30 AM ET: October CPI (consensus +0.2% m/m) — due at the edge of our 24-hour window
  • Holding $73,150⁠–⁠73,500 (200-day average and overnight low)
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 8:30 AM ET Monday, Bitcoin traded at $74,772: down 1.7% over 24 hours, 2.7% over 7 days and 9.9% over 30 days.Binance
  • 24-hour range: $73,510⁠–⁠76,095. The overnight low just before the weekly close was the lowest since Aug 21; during the European session price held a tight $74,000⁠–⁠74,800 band.Binance
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours: 16,521 BTC (about $1.23B), triple Sunday's — real selling on the drop.Binance
5 more facts
  • The Nov 2⁠–⁠8 week closed below the 50-week average for the first time in eight weeks: Bitcoin reclaimed it on Sep 20 and held above it for seven straight weeks.The Block
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.50 trillion, the total crypto market $2.49 trillion; BTC dominance 60.2%, ETH 10.4%.CoinGecko
  • Price is 40.8% below the $126,080 record (Oct 6, 2025); Bitcoin is down 26.9% year over year.CoinGecko
  • Altcoins fell harder: Ether about $2,117 (−5.2% in 24 hours), XRP $1.09 (−5.6%), Solana $86.4 (−3.1%), Hyperliquid $73.1 (−5.6%); only five of the top 100 coins gained 1% or more.CoinDesk
  • Ether closed Sunday below its 200-day average for the first time since Aug 18; AVAX (+5% on a report that NYSE will settle tokenized stock trades on Avalanche) and ARB bucked the trend.CoinDesk

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) is 35.4: weak, not far from oversold (30).Binance
  • MACD −1,704 below the −1,331 signal line, histogram −374: downside momentum picked up again after the weekend drop.Binance
  • Price is below the EMA20 ($78,160), EMA50 ($79,297) and EMA200 ($76,816): all three now act as resistance.Binance
6 more facts
  • The 50-week average sits at $75,220⁠–⁠75,490 depending on the calculation; the week closed about 0.7% below it. Galaxy notes the bullish case holds if it is reclaimed within a month.The Block
  • The 200-day simple average is $73,150⁠–⁠73,224 and the Mayer Multiple 1.02 (49th historical percentile): the overnight low stopped $300⁠–⁠400 above it, making it the key support today.Investinglive
  • Nearest support: $73,500 (overnight low) and $73,000⁠–⁠73,200 (200-day and the Aug 21 low), then $72,500; resistance: $75,500 (50-week), $76,100 (Sunday's high) and $76,800 (EMA200).Binance
  • The 200-week average is $67,760, with price 10.3% above it; Pi Cycle reads 0.50, far from overheating.CoinLab
  • Fractals: the two-week stretch (−6.0%) matches 6 historical episodes, and all 6 were followed by gains (median +5.6%); the 50-day window — 4 of 6 up (median +2.6%), the six-month window — 5 of 6. Statistics, not a promise.CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for noon ET Nov 10 is $74,755 with an interquartile range of $73,248⁠–⁠75,976 and 50.5% odds of an up day — bettors see no big move before CPI, matching our sideways base case.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Crypto liquidations over 24 hours topped $1.15B, including $1.04B of longs and $117M of shorts; 167,764 traders were hit, and the largest single liquidation was a $48.2M ETH long on Binance.The Block
  • About $305⁠–⁠309M of Bitcoin positions and roughly $500M of Ether positions were liquidated: altcoins took the brunt.CoinDesk
  • Binance BTC futures open interest is 96,575 BTC ($7.22B): −0.9% in 24 hours and −3.4% on the week; market-wide crypto futures OI fell 3% to $127B as volume jumped 200% to $180B.CoinDesk
4 more facts
  • Funding on Binance and Hyperliquid is 0.01% per 8 hours (11% annualized), Bybit 0.007%, OKX 0.006%: Bitcoin longs still pay shorts, while Ether funding has turned negative.Binance
  • Binance long/short account ratio is 2.81 (73.7% long), top traders 2.00; taker buy/sell ratio 0.97: retail remains heavily long.Binance
  • Futures trade almost flat to spot: mark $74,750 vs index $74,774; the Coinbase premium over Binance is near zero — US buyers did not step in on the dip.Coinbase
  • CoinLab's squeeze index reads −2: a mild tilt toward a long flush — positive funding, retail long, and long liquidations 11 times larger than shorts.CoinLab

4Options

  • Tomorrow, Nov 10, at 08:00 UTC (3 AM ET), 2,039 BTC of options expire on Deribit with max pain at $75,000 — right at the price.Deribit
  • Next big expiry: Friday, Nov 13 — 34,351 BTC, max pain $77,000, put/call 0.69.Deribit
  • The Nov 27 monthly expiry holds 75,480 BTC with max pain at $79,000; the Dec 25 expiry — 140,729 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
4 more facts
  • The DVOL volatility index is 40.6 (40.3 a week ago): options price a daily move of about ±2.1%, or ±$1,590.Deribit
  • One-week BTC implied volatility rose to about 43% from 33% on Thursday, and the one-week put premium over calls jumped to 13% from 2%: traders are paying up for downside protection ahead of CPI.CoinDesk
  • Four of the six most active Bitcoin options are puts struck at $70,000⁠–⁠72,000.CoinDesk
  • Put/call across all open interest is 0.72; total open interest is 340,096 BTC ($25.4B).Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • Strategy bought 1,036 BTC for $81.9M at an average $79,012 over Nov 2⁠–⁠8; it now holds 850,364 BTC at an average $75,456 — the price at publication was 0.9% below its cost basis.The Block
  • Strategy raised $283.8M by selling common stock but spent most of it ($188.3M) buying back its 12% STRC preferred shares rather than Bitcoin; MSTR is down 2.75% premarket.CoinDesk
  • Strive added 29 BTC (43,153 BTC total); its shares are down 3.45% premarket.CoinDesk
5 more facts
  • Spot BTC ETFs lost $1.28B in the Nov 2⁠–⁠6 week — the most since late June, with outflows on four of five days; year-to-date net flows turned negative (−$914M). Monday's flows come out tonight.The Block
  • On Nov 6 the funds lost $411.9M, including $403M from IBIT; only FBTC took in money (+$42.8M).Tftc
  • Ether ETFs lost $365M last week — a sixth straight week of outflows.Startupfortune
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30M BTC (6.2% of supply) worth about $97B; after Strategy, the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One (43,514) and Strive.CoinGecko
  • MARA, BitGo, Exodus, HIVE and Trump Media report after the close today; CoreWeave, Bitdeer and eToro report Tuesday.CoinDesk

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 29 (Fear): 28 a day ago, 37 a week ago, 64 a month ago; the one-year average is 31.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature is 28/100: across eight cycle metrics the market is in a cold zone where buying has historically beaten selling.CoinLab
  • MVRV is 1.42 (as of Nov 2), 33rd historical percentile: holders are on average about 42% in profit.Coinmetrics
5 more facts
  • Short-term holder cost basis is about $75,725 (as of Nov 2): price is below it, so recent buyers are underwater on average — which usually adds selling into rallies.Bgeometrics
  • Galaxy points out that in the 2011⁠–⁠2012 and 2019⁠–⁠2020 bear markets Bitcoin also lost the 50-week average after first reclaiming it, yet the prior low held on weekly closes; the current cycle low is $59,517 (Jun 28).The Block
  • More coins are moving to exchanges at a loss: such transfers rose from 2,559 to 32,695 BTC; exchange reserves are about 2.59M BTC (late last week).Coincentral
  • Long-term holders cut balances by 248,000 BTC (about $17.4B) in Q3 — nearly three times ETF buying over the same period.21shares
  • Stablecoin supply is $294.8B: −1.6% on the week and −4.2% (−$12.9B) over 30 days — no fresh money is entering crypto.Defillama

7Mining

  • Hashrate is about 966 EH/s; difficulty is 148.4T.mempool.space
  • Next difficulty adjustment around Nov 13 (565 blocks away, epoch 72% done), estimated at −6.3% as miners switch off after the price drop; the previous adjustment was +5.5%.mempool.space
  • Hashprice was $32.86 per PH/s per day on Nov 2 (−8.7% on the week), below its 30-day average of $37.49; after the weekend drop miner revenue is even lower.Hashrateindex
3 more facts
  • Fees are at the floor: 3 sat/vB for fast confirmation and 1 sat/vB within an hour — the network is nearly empty.mempool.space
  • Block height is 975,179, with 74,821 blocks to the halving (expected around April 2028).mempool.space
  • AI-pivoted miners (IREN, Cipher) are down about 2% premarket, giving back part of Friday's gains; MARA reports after the close today.CoinDesk

8Macro

  • No US data came out at 8:30 AM ET this Monday; the week's main event is October CPI on Tuesday, Nov 10, at 8:30 AM ET — consensus +0.2% month over month after +0.6% in September.CoinDesk
  • US index futures are higher ahead of the open: Dow +559 points, S&P 500 +68, Nasdaq 100 +226 — helped by falling oil and a weaker dollar.Investinglive
  • Nvidia is down 4⁠–⁠5% premarket: its board opened an independent investigation after Jensen Huang admitted a relationship with a woman US intelligence suspects of passing information to Beijing; the company says no secrets were compromised.CoinDesk
7 more facts
  • The European session brought no major data or news: Sentix investor confidence slipped to 2.4 for the eurozone and 13.1 for the US, where expectations turned negative for the first time since June.Investinglive
  • WTI crude fell about 3% to $87.5⁠–⁠88.5 on reports Trump asked Iraq's prime minister to carry proposals to Iran; Brent was near $97 earlier in the morning.Investinglive
  • Gold rose 1.1⁠–⁠1.6% to $4,110⁠–⁠4,140; the dollar index (DXY) is at 101.8 (−0.5% on the day).Yahoo Finance
  • The 2-year Treasury yield is 4.55% (+2.5 bp), the 10-year 4.87% (+1.3 bp): rates are holding near their highs.Investinglive
  • On Friday the S&P 500 closed at 7,377 (+0.3%) and the Nasdaq at 24,579 (+1.1%); last week they lost 2.7% and 3.4%. The VIX is 23.5 (−8.5% on the day).Yahoo Finance
  • The fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% after the Sep 16 hike; the next meeting is Dec 8⁠–⁠9. Polymarket puts a December hike at 76.5%, futures at about 80%.Polymarket
  • Fed speakers today: Michelle Bowman at 8:40 AM ET, Austan Goolsbee at 10:00 AM and Thomas Barkin at 12:15 PM ET; the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations is out at 11:00 AM ET.Investinglive

9Regulation and events

  • Trump meets Qatar's prime minister, a mediator with Iran, today: on the table is Tehran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for releasing frozen funds; Vance backs the deal, Bessent and Hegseth oppose it.CoinDesk
  • Iran's foreign ministry called its two-day proposal "the most reasonable option" on the table and confirmed a recent IAEA visit to the Bushehr nuclear plant.Investinglive
  • The SEC sent the White House a draft rule for crypto broker-dealers covering capital and custody of client assets; the text has not been published.Crypto Briefing
5 more facts
  • After the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate, the SEC and CFTC signed a memorandum of understanding on Nov 3 and are writing crypto rules without new legislation.Mondovisione
  • From Nov 12 the European Banking Authority takes over supervision of the USDC issuer's own funds, reserves and liquidity.CoinDesk
  • The Binance hack (since Oct 29) totals about $6.3⁠–⁠6.4B; Chainalysis attributes it to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, and about $2.8B had been frozen by Nov 3.Chainalysis
  • Polymarket for November: touching $80,000 — 45.5%, a drop to $72,500 — 70.5%, to $70,000 — 50.5%.Polymarket
  • This week: CPI on Tuesday, Veterans Day on Wednesday (bond market closed, stocks open), jobless claims on Thursday, PPI, eurozone GDP and the Deribit expiry on Friday.CoinDesk

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
45
Base case came true
78%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
96%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 8, 2026 · overnight$75,878$74,818 (-1.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 8, 2026 · morning$76,064$74,920 (-1.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 7, 2026 · overnight$76,023$75,866 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 7, 2026 · morning$75,902$75,980 (+0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · overnight$75,491$75,907 (+0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · morning, pre-market$75,650$75,900 (-0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 5, 2026 · overnight$80,490$75,765 (-5.9%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-market$79,673$76,040 (-4.5%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
November 4, 2026 · overnight$77,409$80,520 (+4.0%) Sideways, 45%Breakoutno
November 4, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,447$79,662 (+1.7%) Sideways, 47%Breakoutno
November 3, 2026 · overnight$76,719$77,390 (+0.6%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 3, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,676$78,298 (+1.1%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 2, 2026 · overnight$78,370$76,944 (-1.9%) Sideways, 52%Pullbackno
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,200$77,428 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 1, 2026 · morning$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

November 9, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 9, 2026 · overnightNovember 8, 2026 · morningNovember 8, 2026 · overnightNovember 7, 2026 · morningNovember 7, 2026 · overnightNovember 6, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 6, 2026 · overnightNovember 5, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 5, 2026 · overnightNovember 4, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 4, 2026 · overnightNovember 3, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 3, 2026 · overnightNovember 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morningOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morningOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morningOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight