This is the archived brief for October 29, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Bitcoin on October 29, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Oct 29, 8:45 AM ET · price at release $80,118Two briefs a day: overnight at 1:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:45 AM ET Thursday, ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded at $80,118: −1.0% on the day and −1.6% on the week; overnight during the Asian session the price slid to $79,710 as Nasdaq futures fell after Alphabet's earnings, and the European session brought it back to $80,100.

The 8:30 AM ET US data brought no inflation surprise: September PCE at 3.6% YoY and core at 3.1%, exactly in line with forecasts, Q3 GDP at 3.4% versus 3.2% expected, initial jobless claims at 194K versus 199K — in the first 15 minutes Bitcoin swung within $80,030⁠–⁠80,270 and went nowhere, while the dollar firmed slightly.
The base case for the next 24 hours is a sideways range of $79,000⁠–⁠81,700: the Polymarket median for Friday at $80,156 matches the price, DVOL at 36.5 implies an expected move of about ±$1,550, and the $10.9 billion Deribit expiry with max pain at $78,000 at 4:00 AM ET Friday pins the price to the lower half of the range.
The main risk is the 9:30 AM ET US open with Nasdaq futures down 1.2% and 65% of accounts long: a break of $79,700 would open the road to $78,000.

Price when the brief was released

$80,118

Oct 29, 8:45 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 29, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case

Sideways

$79,000–$81,700

47%

33%

20%

Resistance

$80,800
$81,640
$82,060

Support

$79,700
$79,220
$78,000

Sideways · 47%

$79,000–$81,700

The 8:30 AM ET data brought no surprise: PCE and core PCE exactly in line, GDP slightly stronger, claims lower — bets on a December hike (76⁠–⁠87%) did not move, and Bitcoin stayed within $80,030⁠–⁠80,270 over 15 minutes. The Polymarket median for Friday at $80,156 matches the price, and the interquartile range of $78,879⁠–⁠81,267 nearly matches our range; DVOL at 36.5 implies an expected move of only ±$1,550. The $10.9 billion expiry at 4:00 AM ET Friday with max pain at $78,000 pulls the price toward the lower half of the range but gives it no momentum; open interest −1.2% on the day, squeeze index −14, funding 0.009% — there is no large leverage to flush. Above, the EMA50 at $80,800 and EMA20 at $81,640 hold; below, the overnight low at $79,710 and the weekly low at $79,221.

Pullback · 33%

$77,000–$79,000

The main risk is the 9:30 AM ET US open: Nasdaq-100 futures −1.2% after Alphabet's −10%, the Kospi −2.6%, and in recent weeks Bitcoin has moved with tech stocks. Leverage is skewed long (65% of Binance accounts, funding doubled to 0.009%), $219 million in longs already burned overnight, Hyperliquid whales are net short, and Glassnode's liquidation band sits near $79,600. A break of $79,700 and the weekly low at $79,221 would open the way to the Friday expiry max pain at $78,000; Polymarket gives 15.5% odds of a touch of $77,500 in October. Also weighing: 6,168 BTC moved to Coinbase Prime, retail deposits at a six-month high, Strategy's pause, −$6 billion in stablecoins over the month and the 10-year yield near 5%; Amazon's report at 4:00 PM ET with its AI capex could add to the selling on Friday.

Breakout · 20%

$81,700–$83,500

In-line inflation and a firm labor market remove the fear of a hot PCE, and a strong Amazon report tonight would restore risk appetite after Alphabet. There is fuel for a rally: three days of ETF inflows ($423.6 million), 86,702 BTC bought by whales per Santiment, the largest exchange outflow in five weeks at 14,942 BTC, and the Hyperliquid whales' net short, which would turn into a squeeze on a bounce. Fractals in the two-week and six-month windows ended higher in 4 and 5 cases of 6. It takes a daily close at 8:00 PM ET above the EMA20 at $81,640; beyond that the targets are the weekly high at $82,061, the top of the Polymarket range and $83,500. Against it: 87% of Friday-expiry calls are above the market, and max pain at $78,000 will anchor the price until 4:00 AM ET Friday.

What to watch today

9:15 AM ET — ECB decision (a pause at 2.50% expected), 9:45 AM ET — Lagarde's press conference
9:30 AM ET — US open: reaction to Alphabet −10%, Microsoft +3% and GDP at 3.4%; Nasdaq-100 futures −1.2%
Around 2⁠–⁠3 PM ET — Bitcoin difficulty adjustment of roughly +5.8%
4:00 PM ET — Amazon (AWS and AI capex) and Strategy Q3 earnings; calls at 5:00 PM ET
Evening — BTC ETF flows for Oct 29: a fourth day of inflows or a reversal
8:00 PM ET — daily candle close (00:00 UTC): a reclaim of the EMA50 at $80,800 or a break of the overnight low at $79,710
Overnight Thursday into Friday, around 11 PM ET — Bank of Japan decision (a pause at 1.25% expected)
4:00 AM ET Friday — $10.9 billion Deribit expiry with max pain at $78,000; 12:00 PM ET — Polymarket bet resolution (median $80,156)

This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

As of 8:45 AM ET Thursday, Bitcoin traded at $80,118: −1.0% on the day, −1.6% on the week and −4.2% over 30 days; the daily candle opened at $81,344, so the day was red so far.Binance
The 24-hour range was $79,710⁠–⁠81,789: the high came Wednesday evening after the Fed decision, the low overnight during the Asian session as Nasdaq futures dropped 1% after Alphabet's earnings.Ethnews
The European session was quiet: from 1:00 AM to 8:30 AM ET the price held within $80,000⁠–⁠80,300, and five-minute volume on Binance never exceeded 35 BTC.Binance

7 more facts

The reaction to the 8:30 AM ET data was token: the five-minute candle on the release ran from $80,027 to $80,268 on 97 BTC of volume and closed at $80,074; at 8:43 AM ET the price was $80,124.Binance
The low of the week and the month is $79,221 (Oct 24), the weekly high $82,061, the monthly high $87,220; Bitcoin is closing out October down about 4%.Binance
Spot volume on Binance over 24 hours was 13,957 BTC, about $1.13 billion: trading around the Fed and the data passed without a spike in turnover.Binance
Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.61 trillion with dominance at 59.4% (ETH at 10.5%); total crypto market cap was $2.70 trillion, −4.0% on the day — altcoins were falling faster than Bitcoin.CoinGecko
The price sat 36.6% below the all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025); year over year it was −29.3%.CoinGecko
The Coinbase premium was −0.03% (about −$20 versus Binance, adjusted for the USDT rate): no sign of US spot buyers ahead of the open.Coinbase
At 8:30 AM ET ETH was $2,308, SOL $99.7, XRP $1.28, BNB $748: Ripple and Solana were under pressure, and total market cap lost 4% on the day.Ethnews

2Technical analysis

The price was below the EMA20 ($81,636) and EMA50 ($80,798): the overnight drop broke through the EMA50, and by 8:45 AM ET it had not been reclaimed; the EMA200 ($76,530) sits far below.Binance
RSI(14) at 42.6: below the neutral 50 but not oversold; MACD at −489 under the signal line at −247, with the histogram at −242 and widening — momentum remained with the sellers.Binance
The golden cross of the daily MA50/MA200 from Sep 13 remains in force; the 50-week moving average at $75,810 is the last line of the medium-term trend.Binance

8 more facts

Resistances: EMA50 $80,800, EMA20 $81,640, the 24-hour high $81,790 and the weekly high $82,060, then $84,400. Supports: the overnight low $79,710, the weekly low $79,220, the Friday expiry max pain $78,000 and the EMA200 $76,530.Binance
The Mayer multiple was 1.10 (price 10% above the 200-day SMA of $73,111), the 57th percentile historically; the 200-week moving average was $67,555, with the price 18.6% above it.Binance
Pi Cycle: SMA111 at $74,805 versus twice the SMA350 at $152,406, a ratio of 0.49 — a cycle-top signal is a long way off.Binance
Fractals: in the two-week window 4 of 6 similar historical patterns ended higher (median +0.5%), in the six-month window 5 of 6 (median +6.9%), but in the 50-day window only 2 of 6 (median −3.5%).CoinLab
Polymarket for 12:00 PM ET Friday gives a median of $80,156 and an interquartile range of $78,879⁠–⁠81,267: our sideways range of $79,000⁠–⁠81,700 is wider than the market's on the upside and matches it on the downside.Polymarket
The probability of a price above $80,000 on Friday is 53.5%, above $82,000 8.5%, below $78,000 8%: the prediction market expects no sharp move, and the up-or-down bet is split exactly 50/50.Polymarket
Polymarket month targets: a touch of $82,500 before the end of October at 18.5%, $77,500 at 15.5%, $75,000 at 2.5%; two days remain until the monthly close.Polymarket
CoinLab's "market temperature" was 34 of 100 (36 yesterday): MVRV, the Mayer multiple and the 200-week moving average are cold, while Fear & Greed at 51 and the distance to the ATH are neutral.CoinLab

3Derivatives

24-hour liquidations as of Thursday morning came to $374 million market-wide across 84,714 traders: $219 million in longs and $155 million in shorts; $97 million in Bitcoin, $82 million in Ether, the largest single order $6.5 million in ETHUSDT on Binance.CoinGlass
During the day on Oct 28 the picture was the reverse: $167⁠–⁠172 million liquidated, of which $110⁠–⁠116 million were shorts — the whipsaw around the Fed hit both sides.Phemex
Binance futures open interest was 96,674 BTC ($7.74 billion): −1.2% on the day, +2.0% on the week; the overnight drop flushed some leverage, and no new money came in.Binance

5 more facts

Binance funding was 0.0091% per 8 hours (10% APR) against a 30-day average of 0.0040%: the rate doubled in a day, and longs were again paying to hold their positions.Binance
Funding on Bybit was 0.0046%, on OKX 0.0075%, on Hyperliquid 0.01% per 8 hours (11% APR): the long skew was being paid for on all four venues.Hyperliquid
65.4% of Binance accounts were long (ratio 1.89), top traders at 1.86; takers were slightly net selling (0.995): the crowd was looking up, the price was not.Binance
Hyperliquid whales have been net short since last week for the first time since March: $1.45 billion in shorts versus $1.22 billion in longs as of Oct 26; Glassnode sees a liquidation band near $79,600.Crypto
The CoinLab squeeze index was −14 of 100: funding and basis slightly positive, but top traders cut longs (z −2), and 24-hour liquidations in the Binance feed were $19.7 million in longs versus $10.2 million in shorts — no fuel for a sharp squeeze.CoinLab

4Options

Tomorrow, Oct 30, at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET), 135,656 BTC of options worth $10.9 billion expire on Deribit — 34% of total open interest; max pain $78,000, put/call 0.52.Deribit
Going into expiry the price was $2,100 above max pain: option sellers have an interest in keeping the market closer to $78,000⁠–⁠80,000 until 4:00 AM ET Friday.Crypto Briefing
The November expiry (Nov 27) holds 42,271 BTC with max pain at $81,000; the December expiry (Dec 25) 135,526 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit

5 more facts

DVOL was 36.5 versus 37.1 a week ago: the expected daily move is about ±1.9%, or ±$1,550; neither the Fed nor the data lifted the volatility premium.Deribit
Total options open interest was 398,854 BTC ($31.9 billion), put/call 0.60: calls still dominate.Deribit
87% of the open calls in Friday's expiry are struck above the market, the largest block about 24,000 BTC at the $95,000 strike: most of the upside bets will expire worthless.Crypto Briefing
The November skew was −3.0 in favor of puts: downside protection costs more than upside bets.Deribit
ETH options — 322,586 ETH, about $750 million — expire at the same time with max pain at $2,500 against a price of $2,308.Cryptoticker

5ETFs and institutions

Spot BTC ETFs took in $137.3 million on Oct 28: IBIT +$136.0 million, BITB +$1.3 million, the rest flat — a third straight day of inflows, but 22% less than the day before.Tokenpost
Over the three sessions of Oct 26⁠–⁠28 the funds drew $423.6 million, only partly offsetting the $635 million outflow from mid-month; cumulative inflows since launch stand at $57.61 billion.Crypto Briefing
Flows for Oct 29 will be known in the evening after the US close; a day with Alphabet down 10% will test whether buying through IBIT continues.Farside

5 more facts

Ether ETFs lost $21.4 million on Oct 28 (a third day of outflows); $1.1⁠–⁠1.3 billion left them in October — the worst month of 2026.Crypto Briefing
Strategy bought no Bitcoin in the week of Oct 19⁠–⁠25 (848,517 BTC at an average of $75,446, $64.02 billion in total) and instead spent $204.9 million buying back STRC preferred shares; the buyback cap was raised from $2 billion to $3 billion.SEC
Strategy reports Q3 results today after the close (4:00 PM ET): consensus is $21.49 per share on revenue of $128.3 million; the company missed in each of the two previous quarters, and earnings hinge on the Bitcoin revaluation.Earningswhispers
On Oct 15 MSCI approved its rule on "non-operating companies": the exclusion list will be published Nov 11, with changes effective Nov 30 — Strategy and Metaplanet are in the risk zone.Tradingview
181 public companies hold 1.31 million BTC ($105.0 billion, 6.25% of supply): Strategy 848,517, Metaplanet 44,000, Twenty One 43,514, Strive 43,000, MARA 35,577.CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

The Fear & Greed index was 51 ("neutral") for a second straight day; a week ago it was 68, a month ago 73: greed drained away in two weeks.alternative.me
MVRV was 1.50 as of Oct 28, the 39th percentile historically; the average cost basis of short-term holders was $75,781 (as of Oct 22), support $4,300 below the market.Coinmetrics
Three whales moved 6,168 BTC ($498.5 million) to Coinbase Prime on Oct 28; a day earlier two wallets dormant for three years sent 2,571 BTC ($206.5 million) there.Kucoin

5 more facts

On Oct 27, 14,942 BTC ($1.1 billion) left exchanges — the largest daily outflow in five weeks; CryptoQuant's preliminary data shows a net outflow of 12,570 BTC after an inflow of 7,000 BTC the day before.Kucoin
Per Santiment, wallets holding 10⁠–⁠10,000 BTC bought 86,702 BTC (about $7 billion) in the three weeks to Oct 10; small wallets were taking profit.Yahoo Finance
Per CryptoQuant, small holders are moving coins to Binance at the fastest pace in six months, while whale deposits have fallen by a third since late August: retail is selling, whales are holding.99bitcoins
Stablecoins stood at $302.0 billion: −1.1% on the week, −$6.0 billion (−1.95%) on the month; dry powder on exchanges is shrinking.Defillama
Wednesday's bounce to $80,000 was three-quarters short covering rather than buying, and overnight the price slipped back below the level — no spot demand for a reversal is visible yet.Mitrade

7Mining

The difficulty adjustment is due today: 98.2% of the epoch done, 37 blocks left, an expected +5.8% — from 140.58 to roughly 148.7 trillion, the highest since March; estimated at around 2⁠–⁠3 PM ET.mempool.space
Hashrate was 1,091 EH/s; the 7-day average as of Oct 28 was 1,074 EH/s, 6.8% below the October 2025 record (1,153 EH/s).Yahoo Finance
Fees were 2 sat/vB for fast and 1 sat/vB for hour-long confirmation: the mempool is empty, with no demand for block space.mempool.space

2 more facts

Hashprice was about $36⁠–⁠37 per PH/s per day (Oct 16), with miner revenue 23% below a year ago; today's difficulty jump will cut it by roughly another 5%.Bitcoin.com
Block 973,691; 76,309 blocks to the halving, estimated around Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space

8Macro

US Q3 GDP (advance estimate, 8:30 AM ET) came in at +3.4% annualized versus 3.2% forecast and 2.2% in Q2, the fastest growth in a year: private investment +19.4%, equipment +20.9%, consumption +3.8%, inventories added 1.61 pp; imports +19.7% and exports −5.7% held growth back.Trading Economics
September PCE was 3.6% YoY (3.4% in August), core 3.1% YoY (3.0%) and 0.3% MoM: all exactly in line with forecasts — inflation is accelerating, but there is no surprise for the Fed; real spending 0.0% MoM, income below expectations.Trading Economics
Initial jobless claims were 194K versus 199K forecast and 195K the week before; continuing claims 1.701 million (−21K): the labor market is firm, giving no reason to ease.FXStreet

12 more facts

Reaction to the data package: the dollar regained a "modest plus" above 102 on the DXY, and Bitcoin stayed within $80,030⁠–⁠80,270 over 15 minutes; strong GDP and in-line inflation do not change the bets on a December hike.FXStreet
On Oct 28 the Fed left the rate at 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% by a 10⁠–⁠2 vote: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for +25 bp; Warsh declined to give guidance on December and called the coming weeks "data-heavy". The next meeting is Dec 8⁠–⁠9.Federal Reserve
FedWatch: the probability of a December hike was 78⁠–⁠87% by estimates after the press conference; Polymarket gives 76.5% for +25 bp in December and 67.5% for a pause in January.Polymarket
The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.02% (Oct 28 close 5.05%, +6 bp), the 2-year 4.70%; DXY 102.2, +0.6% over five days.Trading Economics
Nasdaq-100 futures were −1.2% ahead of the open (around 29,620), S&P 500 −0.4% (around 7,750), the Dow in the green: Alphabet −10% premarket after missing on revenue ($127.58 billion versus $128.2 billion) and earnings ($2.12 versus $3.02 on an $8.2 billion loss on its SpaceX stake), Microsoft +3% on Azure +48%.Investing.com
Wednesday's regular US session closed higher for a third straight day: S&P 500 at 7,744 (+0.28%), Nasdaq at 26,550 (+0.27%), VIX 17.3.Yahoo Finance
Europe ahead of the ECB: Stoxx 600 +0.1% (644.8 at 4:06 AM ET), with energy, Shell and Airbus holding the index up and the tech sector in the red; in Asia the Kospi fell 2.6% after +6.8% the day before, the Nikkei +0.3%, the Hang Seng +0.2%.Investing.com
ECB at 9:15 AM ET: a pause is expected with the deposit rate at 2.50%, and the market prices 80% odds of a December hike; at Lagarde's 9:45 AM ET press conference the focus is French bonds and the question of her possible departure.Investing.com
Brent was $114.3 (−0.9%), WTI $101.6: oil is retreating from four-year highs on news of US–Iran talks through intermediaries, but it is up 17% for October — the inflationary backdrop for the Fed persists.Trading Economics
Gold was $4,040 (−0.3% on the day, −0.5% over five days): with the 10-year yield near 5%, the safe-haven metal is not rising alongside oil.Yahoo Finance
Amazon reports today after the US close (call at 5:00 PM ET): FactSet consensus is revenue of $202.2 billion and AWS growth of 37.8%; after Alphabet's miss, the reaction to AI capex will set the tone for Friday.Benzinga
Bank of Japan overnight Thursday into Friday, around 11 PM ET: a pause at 1.25% is expected with a hint at a December hike; USD/JPY is back above 158 — a hawkish tone would strengthen the yen and weigh on risk assets.FXStreet

9Regulation and events

Treasury Secretary Bessent at the Ripple Swell conference on Oct 28: after the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate (cloture failed Sep 15), Treasury will close the gap between the SEC and CFTC through the agencies themselves, with or without Congress.Tokenpost
Since Oct 5 the CFTC has been collecting comments on an advance notice of rules for retail leveraged crypto trading, including a new type of venue registered solely for such assets.Thehill
SEC: the Regulation Crypto Assets proposal of Aug 19, with exemptions for startups (up to $5 million) and fundraising (up to $75 million) and a safe harbor for tokens, has completed its comment period; the vote on it has been postponed.Paulhastings

4 more facts

US midterm elections on Nov 3: Warsh stressed that politics did not influence the decision; the next Fed meeting on Dec 8⁠–⁠9 falls after the election, and from 2027 the number of rate-setting meetings will be cut.Foxbusiness
Iran: talks with the US are running through intermediaries, but threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi clashes with the Houthis keep Brent above $110 — supplies from the region have recovered to near pre-war levels.Trading Economics
Calendar for the next 24 hours: 9:15 AM ET ECB, 9:30 AM US open, 2⁠–⁠3 PM difficulty adjustment, 4:00 PM Amazon and Strategy earnings, 8:00 PM daily candle close, around 11 PM Bank of Japan, 4:00 AM ET Friday the $10.9 billion Deribit expiry, 12:00 PM ET Friday Polymarket bet resolution.Deribit
Further out: Nov 3 US elections, Nov 11 MSCI exclusion list, Nov 27 Deribit November expiry (max pain $81,000), Dec 8⁠–⁠9 Fed with new projections.Deribit

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast

Base case came true

85%

the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range

At least one scenario right

100%

the close landed inside one of the three ranges

Day	Morning price	Close	Base case	Came true	Hit
October 29, 2026 · overnight	$80,389	$78,280 (-2.5%)	Sideways, 48%	Pullback	no
October 28, 2026 · overnight	$80,947	$80,256 (-0.9%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,831	$80,170 (-1.4%)	Sideways, 52%	Sideways	yes
October 27, 2026 · overnight	$79,789	$80,994 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · overnight	$80,172	$79,759 (-0.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,516	$79,910 (-0.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · overnight	$80,824	$80,134 (-1.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,350	$80,416 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,776	$80,581 (+0.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 23, 2026	$81,637	$81,189 (-0.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 22, 2026	$82,932	$81,416 (-3.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 21, 2026	$82,892	$84,093 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 20, 2026	$81,990	$83,028 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 19, 2026	$82,886	$81,938 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 18, 2026	$81,746	$82,116 (+0.8%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 17, 2026	$81,615	$81,491 (-0.1%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 16, 2026	$82,202	$81,616 (-0.8%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 15, 2026	$81,108	$82,246 (+0.7%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 14, 2026	$83,610	$81,682 (-1.8%)	Sideways, 45%	Pullback	no
October 13, 2026	$83,728	$83,169 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 12, 2026	$84,017	$81,850 (-2.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Pullback	no
October 11, 2026	$83,078	$83,773 (+0.9%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 10, 2026	$82,669	$82,988 (+0.4%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 9, 2026	$82,374	$82,636 (+1.1%)	Sideways, 48%	Sideways	yes
October 8, 2026	$82,927	$81,754 (-1.9%)	Sideways, 47%	Pullback	no
October 7, 2026	$84,194	$83,322 (-2.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 6, 2026	$85,674	$85,550 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 60%	Sideways	yes

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