This is the archived brief for October 27, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Bitcoin on October 27, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Oct 27, 1:50 AM ET · price at release $79,789Two briefs a day: overnight at 1:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 1:30 AM ET Tuesday, Bitcoin traded at $79,789: down 0.5% in 24 hours and 3.9% on the week, slipping back below $80,000 in Asian trading even after Monday's 0.8% Nasdaq gain and a $110 million inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs that snapped a two-day outflow streak.

The base case for the next 24 hours is sideways at $79,000⁠–⁠81,000: the Fed doesn't announce its decision until Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, and Polymarket's median for Wednesday is $79,847.
The main risk is crowded longs: 69.5% of Binance accounts are betting on upside with funding at triple its average, and a break of Saturday's $79,221 low could trigger long liquidations.

Price when the brief was released

$79,789

Oct 27, 1:50 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 27, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case

Sideways

$79,000–$81,000

55%

28%

17%

Resistance

$80,800
$81,700
$83,000

Support

$79,200
$78,000
$76,500

Sideways · 55%

$79,000–$81,000

Big players are waiting for Wednesday's 2:00 PM ET Fed decision: DVOL at 38.3 has barely moved, and the Oct 27 and Oct 28 expiries with $80,000 max pain pull price toward the middle of the range. Polymarket's median for Wednesday is $79,847 with roughly 51⁠–⁠53% odds of upside, so prediction markets also expect a standstill. The $110 million ETF inflow and the Nasdaq rally limit the downside, while the 50-day EMA near $80,760 and the ETF cost basis near $81,300 cap rallies.

Pullback · 28%

$77,000–$79,000

69.5% of Binance accounts are long, funding is triple the average, open interest rose 2.4% in 24 hours into a falling price, MACD is deepening again, and both spot and perpetual CVD are negative. A break of Saturday's $79,221 low opens the way to the big expiry's $78,000 max pain and Glassnode's $77,600 True Market Mean. Triggers: a breakdown in Iran talks, an oil spike or weak consumer confidence at 10:00 AM ET. Polymarket gives 44.5% to a touch of $77,500 in October.

Breakout · 17%

$81,000–$83,000

It would take fresh ETF inflows and more AI-stock gains after Anthropic's IPO filing; six-month fractals ended higher in 6 of 6 cases, whales aren't sending coins to exchanges, and oil is down for a second day. Against: the 20-day EMA at $81,737, no Strategy buying, 10-year yields near 5% and 75% odds of a December hike.

What to watch today

Deribit expiry today at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET) with $80,000 max pain
US open at 9:30 AM ET and Conference Board consumer confidence at 10:00 AM ET
Holding Saturday's $79,221 low and reclaiming $80,800
Iran talks and Brent near $114⁠–⁠115; Israel's election today
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows for Oct 27 after the close; Robinhood and SoFi earnings
Daily candle close at 00:00 UTC (8:00 PM ET) and the Oct 28 expiry at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET)
Fed decision Oct 28 at 2:00 PM ET and Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET; the $10.8 billion main expiry on Oct 30 at 4:00 AM ET

This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

Overnight, as of 1:30 AM ET on Oct 27, Bitcoin traded at $79,789: down 0.5% in 24 hours, 3.9% on the week and 5.5% on the month.Binance
The 24-hour range was $79,451⁠–⁠80,845: BTC climbed above $80,800 during the US session but slipped back below $80,000 in Asian trading while the US slept.Binance
Saturday's low of $79,221 remains the bottom of the week and the month; the weekly high is $84,898 and the monthly high $87,220.Binance

6 more facts

Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 14,852 BTC (about $1.19 billion): busier than a sleepy Monday, but no surge.Binance
Bitcoin's market cap stands at $1.60 trillion with 59.4% dominance; the total crypto market lost 2.0% in 24 hours to $2.69 trillion as altcoins fell harder.CoinGecko
Bitcoin is 36.8% below its all-time high of $126,080 from Oct 6, 2025, and down 30.9% over the past year.CoinGecko
Ether traded at $2,312 overnight (−0.5% in 24 hours) with 10.5% dominance; in Oct 26 recaps ETH and XRP were each down 1.8%, SOL and DOGE 1.1%.Coinpedia
The Coinbase premium over Binance in dollar terms was −0.02% (−$17 per coin): US buyers are neither pushing nor propping up the price.Coinbase
Bitcoin in other currencies: €71,390, £59,788, ¥12.56 million.CoinGecko

2Technical analysis

The daily RSI(14) is 40.4: below the midpoint, but still well above oversold (30).Binance
Daily MACD (−527) is below its signal line (−147), and the histogram deepened to −380 from −341 a day earlier: downside momentum is building again.Binance
Price sits below the 50-day EMA ($80,760) and 20-day EMA ($81,737): $80,800 is the first resistance, and pressure stays on until it is reclaimed.Binance

10 more facts

The 200-day EMA ($76,490) and 50-week average ($75,804) are the key trend support; the golden cross from Sep 13 is still intact.Binance
ETF buyers' average cost basis is about $81,300 per Coinbase Institutional: Bitcoin is below it, leaving fund holders slightly underwater.Investinglive
Glassnode puts the True Market Mean at $77,600 and a dense cost-basis supply zone at $85,000⁠–⁠87,500 (Oct 21 research).Crypto
The Mayer Multiple is 1.09 (price 9% above the 200-day SMA of $73,030), 56th percentile: neither overheated nor capitulating.CoinLab
The 200-week average is $67,392, with Bitcoin 18.4% above it; the Pi Cycle ratio is 0.49 (SMA111 $74,474 vs. 2× SMA350 $152,648): a cycle-top signal is far away.CoinLab
Fractals: in the two-week window 4 of 6 similar historical stretches ended higher (median +3.7%), in the 50-day window only 2 of 6 (median −4.0%), in the six-month window 6 of 6 (median +6.1%).CoinLab
CoinLab's Market Temperature is 33 out of 100 vs. 38 a week ago: MVRV, the Mayer Multiple and the 200-week average keep the market in the cool zone.CoinLab
Polymarket for noon ET on Oct 28 shows a median of $79,847, with half of outcomes in $78,568⁠–⁠81,205; odds of finishing above the overnight price are 51%, and the up/down market gives 53.5% to up.Polymarket
Our base-case sideways range of $79,000⁠–⁠81,000 matches the center of the Polymarket distribution: neither market expects a big move before the Fed.Polymarket
October targets on Polymarket: 42.5% for a touch of $82,500 by month-end and 44.5% for $77,500; $75,000 at 15.5%, $85,000 at 13.5%.Polymarket

3Derivatives

Funding on Binance, OKX and Hyperliquid is +0.01% per 8 hours (11% annualized), on Bybit +0.0033% (3.6%): longs are paying nearly triple the monthly average (+0.0037%).Binance
Binance BTC open interest is 97,171 BTC ($7.75 billion): up 2.4% in 24 hours after a week of declines, as leverage rebuilds into a falling market.Binance
69.5% of Binance accounts are long (ratio 2.28), top traders 1.94: the crowd is still betting on a bounce.Binance

5 more facts

Takers bought slightly more in the latest reading (1.04), but Glassnode's weekly perpetual CVD sank to −$288 million: sellers are in control.Glassnode
Glassnode: futures open interest across exchanges is $37.5 billion (+2.7% on the week, near the top of its normal band), and weekly long-side funding payments of $2.1 million are above normal.Glassnode
CoinLab's squeeze score is −40: funding plus long-heavy positioning among accounts and top traders point to a long flush risk, not a short squeeze.CoinLab
Binance mark price ($79,761) is slightly below the index ($79,796): futures trade at a small discount to spot.Binance
On Oct 26, CoinGlass counted $154 million in market-wide liquidations, $118 million of them longs and $32.9 million in Bitcoin: the market calmed after the $810 million weekend flush.Crypto

4Options

DVOL is 38.3 vs. 37.3 a week ago: implied volatility is barely rising ahead of the Fed.Deribit
The put/call open-interest ratio is 0.60; total Deribit open interest is 393,942 BTC (about $31.4 billion).Deribit
Today at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET), 3,042 BTC expire with max pain at $80,000; on Oct 28, 2,751 BTC expire, also with $80,000 max pain and a put tilt (1.09).Deribit

5 more facts

The big one is Oct 30 at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET): 135,545 BTC, about $10.8 billion and a third of all open interest, max pain $78,000, put/call 0.55.Deribit
The largest position in the October series is $95,000 calls (about 25,600 contracts as of Oct 17); puts cluster at $70,000⁠–⁠75,000 strikes.Cryptoticker
Glassnode's 25-delta skew is 10.4% (8.9% a week earlier): downside protection is getting pricier and nearing the top of its normal band.Glassnode
The implied-minus-realized volatility spread is 32.3% vs. 4.7% a week earlier: options price a bigger move than the market is delivering.Glassnode
Nov 27 has 39,463 BTC open with $81,000 max pain; Dec 25 has 135,224 BTC with $75,000 max pain.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $110.3 million on Oct 26, all of it into BlackRock's IBIT; every other fund was flat.Crypto Briefing
It is the first inflow after two days of redemptions: funds lost $773.5 million on Oct 22⁠–⁠23, including $635.6 million on Oct 22.Crypto
The week of Oct 19⁠–⁠23 ended with $301.2 million in net inflows; month-to-date through Oct 26, the funds are still down roughly $200 million.Investinglive

7 more facts

Cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows since launch exceed $57 billion; the funds hold about 1.28⁠–⁠1.3 million BTC worth $102⁠–⁠104 billion.Crypto Briefing
Ether ETFs lost $88.6 million on Oct 26, and October outflows have topped $1.1 billion.Crypto Briefing
Glassnode: ETF holders' MVRV is 1.4, just below its normal low band: fund buyers have a thinner profit cushion than usual.Glassnode
Strategy neither bought nor sold Bitcoin during Oct 19⁠–⁠25: it holds 848,517 BTC acquired for $64.02 billion including fees.Crypto
Instead of coins, the company bought back $204.9 million of STRC preferred shares, $590.4 million over three weeks; its USD reserve is $4.83 billion.Crypto
Strategy (MSTR) shares fell 4.25% on Oct 26; the company reports Q3 results on Oct 29 after the close.Hdfcsky
Public companies hold 1,312,578 BTC ($104.6 billion, 6.25% of supply) across 181 treasuries; after Strategy, the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC) and Twenty One (43,514 BTC).CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

The Fear & Greed Index is 48 (Neutral) vs. 50 a day earlier, 55 a week ago and 70 a month ago.alternative.me
MVRV on Oct 26 was 1.48, the 38th historical percentile: the average holder is up 48%, far from the overheated zone (above 2.5).Coinmetrics
The short-term holder cost basis was $74,736 as of Oct 20: the market is 6.8% above it, so recent buyers are on average in profit.Bgeometrics

4 more facts

Glassnode weekly: 67.3% of supply is in profit (68.2% a week earlier), realized profits again exceed losses (0.8 vs. 0.6), and active addresses fell 2.2% to 615K.Glassnode
Hot capital's share is 21.1%, well above normal, while spot CVD is −$80.5 million: more fast money in the coins, and selling on spot.Glassnode
Per CryptoQuant, retail-sized deposits to Binance over 30 days hit a six-month high while whale deposits declined: small holders are selling, large ones are waiting.Crypto
Stablecoin supply is $303.3 billion: down 0.7% on the week and $3.5 billion on the month, so fresh money isn't arriving.Defillama

7Mining

Hashrate is 1,068 EH/s and difficulty 140.58T; the epoch is 81.3% complete, with 377 blocks left until the adjustment.mempool.space
The next difficulty adjustment is expected Oct 29 at an estimated +6.4% after +5.9% last epoch: hashpower keeps growing despite the price drop.mempool.space
Fees are at the floor, 1 sat/vB for both fast and within-the-hour confirmation: the network is uncongested.mempool.space

2 more facts

Block height is 973,351; 76,649 blocks remain to the halving, around Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space
MARA Holdings, with 35,577 BTC, is the largest public miner by coins held.CoinGecko

8Macro

On Oct 26 the S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 7,676.77, the Nasdaq 0.82% to 26,169.38 and the Dow 0.28% to 52,361.58; Bitcoin did not join the rally.Hdfcsky
Tech was lifted by Anthropic's public IPO filing for a Nasdaq listing: first-half revenue of $16.3 billion and a net loss of $80.7 billion, mostly from accounting charges.Hdfcsky
In Asia on Tuesday, the Nikkei 225 gained 2.2% (63,543) and the Kospi 3.6⁠–⁠4.0% on SK hynix and Samsung, while Hong Kong and Shanghai edged lower; US stock futures rose.News4jax

9 more facts

Oil is falling for a second day: Brent lost 1.8% to $114.6 on Monday and another 1% in Asia on Tuesday (about $114.7), WTI is near $100.9.France24
The driver is talks in Tehran: ministers from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan visited Iran, which called the discussions "very good"; the US, Iran and Israel still warn that fighting could resume.France24
The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.00% on Oct 26 and 4.98% in Asian trading; the 2-year is 4.68%, down 9 bp in five days.Treasury
The dollar index is 102.08 (+0.1%), USD/JPY 157.65; gold is $4,021 (−0.4% on the day, −2.9% over five days); the VIX fell 5.4% to 18.4.Yahoo Finance
The Fed meets Oct 27⁠–⁠28: the decision is Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET; the target range is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% after September's hike.Federal Reserve
Polymarket gives 93.6% to a hold and 6.5% to +25 bp; for December, 75% to a hike, with CME FedWatch at about 70%.Polymarket
Today at 10:00 AM ET: the Conference Board consumer confidence index and US new home sales; the confidence release date has not been formally confirmed.Financecalendar
Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday after the close, Amazon on Thursday; Meta announced a $35 billion stock sale: for AI-correlated Bitcoin, this is the week's No. 2 driver after the Fed.News4jax
Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET brings the first Q3 GDP estimate and September PCE; the ECB decides the same day, the Bank of Japan on Oct 30.Kucoin

9Regulation and events

The OCC on Oct 26 urged community banks to issue stablecoins under the GENIUS Act: its rules take effect Jan 18, 2027, and applications are not yet open.CoinDesk
The Independent Community Bankers of America is suing the OCC over trust charters for crypto firms, and Sen. Warren has asked the agency to explain nine such charters.CoinDesk
CFTC Chair Mike Selig is pushing voluntary federal registration for crypto exchanges while the CLARITY Act is stuck in the Senate; Congress won't return to it until after the Nov 3 midterms.Dcdecentralized

4 more facts

Sen. Blumenthal on Oct 22 sent letters to Tether's CEO and to Polymarket and Kalshi, as scrutiny of crypto and prediction markets builds ahead of the elections.Dcdecentralized
Canada opened a 60-day consultation on stablecoin rules, keeping its ban on issuer-paid yield.Crypto
Today brings Israel's general election and a closed-door plenum of China's Communist Party; US midterms are Nov 3.France24
Robinhood and SoFi report today after the US close; Coinbase and Strategy report Thursday, Oct 29.Decrypt

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast

Base case came true

88%

the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range

At least one scenario right

100%

the close landed inside one of the three ranges

Day	Morning price	Close	Base case	Came true	Hit
October 27, 2026 · overnight	$79,789	$80,994 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · overnight	$80,172	$79,759 (-0.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,516	$79,910 (-0.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · overnight	$80,824	$80,134 (-1.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,350	$80,416 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,776	$80,581 (+0.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 23, 2026	$81,637	$81,189 (-0.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 22, 2026	$82,932	$81,416 (-3.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 21, 2026	$82,892	$84,093 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 20, 2026	$81,990	$83,028 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 19, 2026	$82,886	$81,938 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 18, 2026	$81,746	$82,116 (+0.8%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 17, 2026	$81,615	$81,491 (-0.1%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 16, 2026	$82,202	$81,616 (-0.8%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 15, 2026	$81,108	$82,246 (+0.7%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 14, 2026	$83,610	$81,682 (-1.8%)	Sideways, 45%	Pullback	no
October 13, 2026	$83,728	$83,169 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 12, 2026	$84,017	$81,850 (-2.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Pullback	no
October 11, 2026	$83,078	$83,773 (+0.9%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 10, 2026	$82,669	$82,988 (+0.4%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 9, 2026	$82,374	$82,636 (+1.1%)	Sideways, 48%	Sideways	yes
October 8, 2026	$82,927	$81,754 (-1.9%)	Sideways, 47%	Pullback	no
October 7, 2026	$84,194	$83,322 (-2.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 6, 2026	$85,674	$85,550 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 60%	Sideways	yes

Brief archive

← Previous brief: October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market Next brief: October 28, 2026 · overnight →