This is the archived brief for November 3, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s

Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Bitcoin on November 3, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Nov 3, 12:43 AM ET · price at release $76,719Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 12:40 AM ET, Bitcoin traded at $76,719: down 2.1% over 24 hours within a $76,542⁠–⁠78,471 range.

While the US slept, the price slipped under $77,000 during the Asian session and settled on the 200-day EMA at $76,641, after Monday's Wall Street close brought a third straight decline in the S&P 500 and a 1.1% drop in the Nasdaq.
The base case for the next 24 hours is sideways at $75,800⁠–⁠78,500 (45%): the market is waiting for the US midterm results, due late Tuesday night or early Wednesday ET, while funding and open interest offer no fuel for either a squeeze or a crash.
The main reason for caution is the $399 million outflow from spot BTC ETFs on Monday after $643 million on Friday, and the longest streak of loss-making selling by holders since August, according to Glassnode.

Price when the brief was released

$76,719

Nov 3, 12:43 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 3, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case

Sideways

$75,800–$78,500

45%

33%

22%

Resistance

$78,470
$79,800
$81,970

Support

$76,330
$75,570
$74,000

Sideways · 45%

$75,800–$78,500

The market is hanging above the 200-day EMA at $76,641 waiting for election results that will arrive only late Tuesday night or early Wednesday ET. There is no leverage: funding is exactly 0.01% on four exchanges, 24-hour liquidations were $176⁠–⁠226 million versus $1.5 billion on the day of the hack, and the basis is in slight backwardation. Polymarket's median for Wednesday, $76,853, and its interquartile range of $75,258⁠–⁠78,333 almost match the corridor, while DVOL at 39 implies a ±$1,600 move. Max pain at $78,000 on today's and tomorrow's expiries keeps the price nearby, and Strategy's purchase plus Binance covering 95% of the losses give no reason to panic.

Pullback · 33%

$73,500–$75,800

Selling pressure is not easing: ETFs lost $399 million on Monday after $643 million on Friday, stablecoins shrank by $11 billion over the month, the Coinbase premium is negative, and holders are selling at a loss for the longest streak since August. 72% of Binance accounts are long, liquidations are almost entirely longs, MACD is diverging downward, and RSI at 34.6 is not yet oversold. The Kospi down 3% overnight and a third straight decline in the S&P 500 show risk appetite is fading. A break of $76,330 opens the 50-week average at $75,570 and the short-term holder cost basis of $75,810, and below that Glassnode's critical $75,000 level and the puts at $74,000.

Breakout · 22%

$78,500–$80,500

Four weeks of ETF outflows, fear at 26 and a streak of loss-making selling are the conditions under which the market reversed in August and September; Tom Lee noted that investors were waiting for precisely Nov 3 to buy the dip. If Nasdaq futures hold their gains into the 9:30 AM ET open and the election results bring no surprise, the shorts opened as OI grew 2.6% overnight will become fuel for a return to max pain at $78,000 and above. Above the 24-hour high of $78,471 the path is open to the $79,000 max pain of Friday's expiry and to the EMA20/50 band at $79,800⁠–⁠80,100, where the rally would most likely stall.

What to watch today

Deribit options expiry on 2,776 BTC (max pain $78,000) — today at 3 AM ET (08:00 UTC)
September JOLTS job openings — 10 AM ET (forecast 7.13 million)
US market open at 9:30 AM ET; Nasdaq futures after the index's 1.1% drop
US midterm elections — voting today, results late Tuesday night or early Wednesday ET
Tuesday's spot BTC ETF flows — after the US close, following two days of $1 billion in outflows
Daily candle close at 7 PM ET (00:00 UTC): above or below the 200-day EMA at $76,641
Binance's staged resumption of withdrawals from Nov 3 and new transfers from the hacker's addresses
Wednesday: ADP at 8:15 AM ET and ISM services at 10 AM ET; Friday: the jobs report at 8:30 AM ET

This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

Overnight, as of 12:40 AM ET, Bitcoin traded at $76,719: down 2.1% over 24 hours, 5.2% on the week and 11.3% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $76,542⁠–⁠78,471.Binance
The price slid from an evening high of $78,471 to below $77,000: selling began after Monday's Wall Street close and intensified in the Asian session, when the Kospi was down more than 3%.Binance
The overnight low of $76,542 sits just $216 above the 30-day low of $76,326 set on Oct 30, the day of the Binance hack: the market is back at the point of panic.Binance

4 more facts

Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 14,273 BTC (about $1.1 billion) versus 8,867 BTC a day earlier: activity rose on the way down, meaning the move was sold, not bought.Binance
Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.54 trillion with 59.3% dominance; the whole crypto market lost 3.5% over 24 hours to $2.60 trillion, with altcoins falling faster than Bitcoin.CoinGecko
Bitcoin remains 39.2% below the all-time high of $126,080 set on Oct 6, 2025, and is down 29% over the past year.CoinGecko
Ether traded at $2,254 (down 1.8% over 24 hours), Solana at $91.8 (down 3.3%), BNB at $695 (down 2.2%), while XRP held near $1.25 (down 0.3%): per CoinGecko, the second tier was weaker than Bitcoin again.CoinGecko

2Technical analysis

The price settled on the 200-day EMA at $76,641, the level that has held the market since mid-August; a daily close below it would be the first signal since summer that the uptrend structure is breaking.Binance
Daily RSI(14) was 34.6, below 40 for a third straight day but not yet oversold (30): there is still room for the decline to continue.Binance
MACD printed −1,355 against a signal line of −883, with the histogram at −472 and widening: downside momentum is building, not fading.Binance

6 more facts

The EMA20 at $79,815 and EMA50 at $80,105 have merged into a resistance band $3,000 above the price; the Sept 14 golden cross is technically intact, but the EMA50 is curling down.Binance
The 50-week moving average at $75,573 and the short-term holder cost basis of $75,809 (as of Oct 27) form a second line of support just below the 30-day low of $76,326.Binance
Nearest resistances are the 24-hour high of $78,471, then the EMA20 at $79,800 and the weekly high of $81,971; below sit $76,330, then $75,570 and the $74,000 zone, where the heaviest puts for the Nov 6 expiry are stacked.Binance
Monday's daily close of $78,311 came in below the Aug 31 close of $78,552: the entire autumn rally has been given back, and overnight the price fell another $1,600 below that.247wallst
CoinLab fractals: on a two-week window, six similar stretches of history produced a median move of −3.3% over the following two weeks (only two of six up); on a 50-day window, +12.5% (four of six up); on a six-month window, all six were up with a median of +23.7%.CoinLab
Polymarket bets for Nov 4 give a median price of $76,853 with an interquartile range of $75,258⁠–⁠78,333 and a 52.5% chance Bitcoin ends above the current price: the prediction market expects the same sideways action as our base case, with a slight downward tilt.Polymarket

3Derivatives

Market-wide liquidations over 24 hours totaled about $176 million, of which $95 million were longs and $81 million shorts; $41 million was wiped out in Bitcoin and $38 million in Ether, with the largest single order at $4.0 million on Hyperliquid.CoinGlass
Another CoinGlass sample for the 24 hours to Monday evening showed $226 million and 67,742 traders liquidated: either way, that is seven times less than the $1.5 billion on the day of the Binance hack — the market is falling without a cascade.CoinGlass
The Binance forced-order feed recorded by our server showed $32.0 million in liquidated Bitcoin longs over 24 hours against $2.7 million in shorts (a lower-bound estimate): the pressure fell entirely on buyers.CoinLab

4 more facts

Open interest in Binance BTC futures stood at 99,698 BTC ($7.65 billion), up 2.6% over 24 hours while the price fell: new positions were opened on the way down, which is typical of shorts.Binance
Funding sat at exactly the base rate of 0.01% per 8 hours (about 11% annualized) on Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid, with the 30-day average at 0.0048%: there is no leverage in longs, and nothing to feed a short squeeze.Bybit
The Binance account long/short ratio was 2.57 (71.95% of accounts long), top traders at 1.87, while takers were buying and selling almost evenly (1.02): the crowd is stubbornly long, and it is the crowd being shaken out.Binance
The quarterly futures basis was −0.03%, a slight backwardation, and the CoinLab squeeze index read −23 on a ±100 scale: the risk is skewed toward longs, not shorts.CoinLab

4Options

Deribit BTC options open interest stood at 312,589 BTC ($23.9 billion) with an overall put/call of 0.69; DVOL at 39.2 versus 38.6 a week ago implies a daily move of about ±$1,600.Deribit
Contracts on 2,776 BTC expire today at 3 AM ET (08:00 UTC) with max pain at $78,000 and a put/call of 0.97; tomorrow another 2,012 BTC expire with the same max pain — an options magnet $1,300 above the price.Deribit
The next major expiry is Friday, Nov 6: 28,448 BTC (about $2.2 billion) with max pain at $79,000 and a put/call of just 0.36; the heaviest calls sit at $90,000 and $95,000, the puts at $74,000 and $76,000.Deribit

3 more facts

The Nov 27 monthly expiry carries 55,295 BTC with max pain at $80,000 and a put/call of 0.80; the Dec 25 quarterly, 138,114 BTC with max pain at $75,000: the longer-dated contracts pull the price down, not up.Deribit
The 25-delta skew for Nov 27 was −4.35 points: puts are pricier than calls and downside protection still commands a premium, though in October it reached −12 to −14 points.Deribit
On Friday, Oct 30, about $590 million in block trades went through Paradigm in eight hours, skewed toward puts, and in the 24 hours before the monthly expiry Deribit traders bought 1.63 BTC of puts for every BTC of calls: hedges were in place before the current decline.Biggo

5ETFs and institutions

US spot BTC ETFs lost $398.6 million on Monday, Nov 2: $405.3 million left BlackRock's IBIT, while the other funds combined barely stayed positive.Crypto Briefing
Friday, Oct 30, saw $643.3 million in outflows, the 12th-largest day since January 2024: IBIT −$233.7 million, Fidelity's FBTC −$201.4 million; before Friday, net inflows for 2026 were just over $1 billion, and two days of outflows nearly wiped them out.CoinDesk
Spot BTC ETF assets were about $98 billion as of Oct 30 versus a peak of $152 billion in July 2025; this is the fourth straight week of net outflows.FXStreet

4 more facts

ETH ETFs lost about $140 million on Nov 2, a sixth straight day of outflows; October saw a record $1.61 billion pulled, and assets have shrunk to $13.2 billion.Crypto Briefing
Strategy reported on Nov 2 the purchase of 811 BTC for $65.5 million at an average of $80,846 over Oct 26 – Nov 1; it holds 849,327 BTC bought for $64.08 billion at an average of $75,451 — just $1,300 below the report price.The Block
Of the $164 million Strategy raised last week by selling 1,178,552 MSTR shares, $65.5 million went into Bitcoin, $98.5 million was set aside as cash, and another $208.2 million was spent buying back STRC preferred stock: Saylor is now supporting his own securities more actively than he is buying coins.Bitcointreasuries
181 public companies hold 1,313,512 BTC worth $100.7 billion, or 6.25% of supply; after Strategy come Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One Capital (43,514) and Strive (43,124).CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

The Fear and Greed Index fell to 26 (fear) from 37 a day earlier, 48 a week ago and 65 a month ago; the one-year average is 31 and the year's low is 5.alternative.me
Holders are selling at a loss for the longest streak of days since mid-August, but on a different scale: on the Oct 24 dip the net realized loss for the day was about $27 million versus $630 million on the August day; Glassnode calls $75,000 the critical level.247wallst
Per Glassnode, long-term holders are underwater on roughly 4 million BTC bought in the $85,000⁠–⁠118,000 range: a supply overhang that will weigh on any bounce toward $85,000.Decrypt

5 more facts

MVRV as of Nov 2 was 1.42 (33rd percentile historically), the Mayer Multiple 1.048, the price 13.3% above the 200-week average of $67,693, Pi Cycle 0.497: CoinLab's market temperature reads 28 out of 100 — cold, but not a bottom.Coinmetrics
Stablecoin market cap was $297.7 billion, down 1.84% on the week and $11.1 billion (3.59%) over 30 days: dollar liquidity is leaving the market, not waiting to enter.Defillama
The Coinbase premium over Binance, adjusted for the USDT rate, was −0.18% (about −$8 per coin): US demand was absent overnight, just as it was before Monday's open.Coinbase
Net outflows from Binance since withdrawals resumed on Nov 1 grew from $3.64 billion (withdrawals of $4.65 billion against deposits of $1.01 billion, 2.1% of its $171 billion in assets) to $4.7 billion by Monday morning; the exchange has covered 95% of the $6.3 billion stolen and resumes the remaining withdrawals from Nov 3.CNBC
By CryptoQuant's October estimate (Oct 13), whales outside exchanges and pools held 3.03 million BTC, the most since November 2025; there is no fresh data yet on whale behavior after the Binance hack.CryptoQuant

7Mining

Hashrate per mempool.space was 1,035 EH/s, with the seven-day average as of Nov 2 at about 1,069 EH/s versus 984 EH/s in early October: capacity keeps growing while the price falls.mempool.space
Difficulty stands at 148.36T after a 5.54% increase on Oct 29, the 11th rise of 2026; miner revenue per exahash fell by roughly 14.2%.Cryptoticker
The next adjustment is expected around Nov 13, 1,394 blocks away; at the current pace it would be −2.3%, with other trackers estimating −0.1% to −3.5%: the first decrease after two consecutive increases.mempool.space

3 more facts

Fees are at rock bottom: 2 sat/vB for a fast transfer, 1 sat/vB within the hour; the mempool is empty even amid the Binance outflows, as users are mostly withdrawing stablecoins and tokens on other networks.mempool.space
Block height is 974,350, with 75,650 blocks to the halving — roughly Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space
At $76,700 and record difficulty, margins on older hardware are being squeezed; large public miners continue shifting capacity to AI hosting, which is holding back further hashrate growth.Yahoo Finance

8Macro

Monday's Wall Street close: the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541, a third straight decline and the lowest close since July 31; the Nasdaq dropped 1.07% to 25,164 while the Dow added 0.41%; in October the Nasdaq posted its worst month since March 2025.CNBC
Apple reported record annual revenue of $479 billion but slowing growth: the stock lost 1.8% in the regular session and another 1⁠–⁠3% after hours; Marvell announced the purchase of Lumentum for $115 billion, and the two stocks fell 13% and 18%.CNBC
October ISM manufacturing came in at 55.5 versus a 54.5 forecast, the highest production reading since November 2021, with prices paid at 75.2: the economy is strong, and that is an argument for a Fed rate hike in December.CNBC

7 more facts

Asia on Tuesday: Japan was closed for Culture Day, the Kospi lost more than 3% in early trading after a 2.2% rally on Monday, the Hang Seng was up 0.5%; US index futures were slightly positive ahead of the election.Investing.com
The Fed held rates at 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% on Oct 28 with two votes for a hike; the next meeting is Dec 8⁠–⁠9, and CME FedWatch puts a hike at about 71⁠–⁠73%, Polymarket at 72.5% for +25 bp and 25.5% for a pause; for January the odds are 69.5% for no change.Polymarket
The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.91% as of Nov 2 (−3 bp on the day, −9 bp on the week), the 2-year 4.59% (+3 bp): the short end is repricing higher again on expectations of a December hike.Treasury
The dollar index was flat on the day at 101.76 and down 0.55% on the week; gold was $3,936 (−0.85% on the day, −3.4% on the week), Brent crude near $97 after Monday's sharpest daily drop in three months on hopes for US–Iran talks; the VIX jumped 8.9% to 21.2.Yahoo Finance
The US midterm elections are today, Nov 3: Polymarket gives Democrats 94.5% for the House and about 73% for the Senate, Kalshi 94% and 74%; results will come late Tuesday night or early Wednesday ET, and that is what the market is waiting for to pick a direction.Polymarket
Data: September JOLTS job openings at 10 AM ET (forecast 7.13 million versus 7.08 million); on Wednesday, ADP at 8:15 AM ET (forecast +65,000) and ISM services at 10 AM ET (forecast 54.8); on Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the October jobs report (forecast +55,000 after +29,000).Trading Economics
Fed speakers this week: Barkin on Thursday at 9:10 AM ET, Logan on Thursday evening, Williams on Friday at 4:30 AM ET and Bowman at 12:15 PM ET; Goolsbee spoke on Monday; Tom Lee of Fundstrat noted that investors were waiting for Nov 3 to buy the dip after the Nasdaq 100's worst month since March 2025.Yahoo Finance

9Regulation and events

The FBI attributed the $6.3 billion Binance hack to North Korea's TraderTraitor group (Lazarus); North Korea, through Kim Yo Jong, rejected the accusations and called the FBI's findings political.Crypto
Tether has frozen more than $1.57 billion in USDT and Circle more than $1.1 billion in USDC linked to the hack; about $3 billion in assets has been blocked in total, while part of the stolen funds keeps moving through Uniswap, according to Arkham.CoinDesk
The SEC expanded its crypto-asset FAQ with criteria for identifying a 'central party' among those governing a token — a step toward separating securities from commodities without legislation.SEC

4 more facts

The CLARITY market-structure bill is stuck in the Senate: a procedural vote to open debate failed, and it was not passed before the midterms; analysts do not expect a law before mid-2027, while the SEC and CFTC are meanwhile sorting assets into five categories through their own rules.CNBC
Midterm history is not on the bulls' side: Bitcoin lost 16% in November 2022 and 36% in November 2018, and gained 11% in 2014 only to fall 15% in December; the last three midterm cycles coincided with bear-market bottoms.FXStreet
Binance is resuming withdrawals in stages from Nov 3 for the remaining networks and assets after security checks; CZ said '98% decided to stay,' and the bulk of the outflow came in the first hours after reopening.The Block
Calendar: Devcon 8 in Mumbai, Nov 3⁠–⁠6; Deribit expiry today at 3 AM ET; Tuesday's ETF flows after the US close; the daily candle closes at 7 PM ET (00:00 UTC); Lisk, an Ethereum L2 network, halted operations on Nov 2.Cryptotimes

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast

Base case came true

82%

the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range

At least one scenario right

100%

the close landed inside one of the three ranges

Day	Morning price	Close	Base case	Came true	Hit
November 2, 2026 · overnight	$78,370	$76,944 (-1.9%)	Sideways, 52%	Pullback	no
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$78,200	$77,428 (-0.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
November 1, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$77,980	$77,808 (-0.1%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 30, 2026 · overnight	$78,686	$77,193 (-1.4%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$77,334	$77,619 (+0.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 29, 2026 · overnight	$80,389	$78,280 (-2.5%)	Sideways, 48%	Pullback	no
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,118	$77,382 (-3.5%)	Sideways, 47%	Pullback	no
October 28, 2026 · overnight	$80,947	$80,256 (-0.9%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,831	$80,170 (-1.4%)	Sideways, 52%	Sideways	yes
October 27, 2026 · overnight	$79,789	$80,994 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · overnight	$80,172	$79,759 (-0.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,516	$79,910 (-0.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · overnight	$80,824	$80,134 (-1.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,350	$80,416 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,776	$80,581 (+0.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 23, 2026	$81,637	$81,189 (-0.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 22, 2026	$82,932	$81,416 (-3.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 21, 2026	$82,892	$84,093 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 20, 2026	$81,990	$83,028 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 19, 2026	$82,886	$81,938 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 18, 2026	$81,746	$82,116 (+0.8%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 17, 2026	$81,615	$81,491 (-0.1%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 16, 2026	$82,202	$81,616 (-0.8%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 15, 2026	$81,108	$82,246 (+0.7%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 14, 2026	$83,610	$81,682 (-1.8%)	Sideways, 45%	Pullback	no
October 13, 2026	$83,728	$83,169 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 12, 2026	$84,017	$81,850 (-2.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Pullback	no
October 11, 2026	$83,078	$83,773 (+0.9%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 10, 2026	$82,669	$82,988 (+0.4%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 9, 2026	$82,374	$82,636 (+1.1%)	Sideways, 48%	Sideways	yes

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