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Market cap$2.58T-6.6%BTC dominance59.1%Fear & Greed28BTC$75,574-3.4%ETH$2,238-4.9%BNB$697.73-0.9%XRP$1.19-7.4%SOL$91.26-2.4%TRX$0.3186+0.3%ZEC$1,379+8.0%HYPE$79.11-1.9%XMR$621.04-1.5%DOGE$0.0731-2.0%
This is the archived brief for November 6, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Friday, November 6, 2026

Bitcoin on November 6, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Nov 6, 12:43 AM ET · price at release $75,491Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 12:43 AM ET, Bitcoin traded near $75,490, down 6.2% in 24 hours within a $75,208⁠–⁠80,794 range: after the Nasdaq's 5.5% plunge on fears for AI data center spending, about $1.08 billion of crypto positions were liquidated, nearly all longs, and Asia fell another 6⁠–⁠8% while the US slept.

  • Base case for the next 24 hours: sideways at $74,000⁠–⁠77,500 (45%) — price is holding the 50-week average at $75,548 and Strategy's cost basis, leverage has been flushed and Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1%.
  • The key event is the October jobs report at 8:30 AM ET.
Price when the brief was released
$75,491
Nov 6, 12:43 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 6, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$74,000–$77,500
45%
45%
30%
25%
Resistance
$76,800
$77,500
$79,000
Support
$75,200
$74,200
$73,200
Sideways · 45%
$74,000–$77,500

Polymarket's Nov 7 median of $75,629 (interquartile $74,190⁠–⁠77,158) and a DVOL of 40.4 (±$1,600 a day) almost match the range. Leverage is flushed: open interest −6.7%, $954 million of longs liquidated. Price sits on the 50-week average ($75,548) and Strategy's average cost ($75,451), and Nasdaq-100 futures were up 1% overnight.

Pullback · 30%
$71,000–$74,000

Price is below every EMA, MACD is deepening, ETFs lost $430 million on Thursday and stablecoins are draining. Retail is still long (74.5% of accounts, squeeze index −23), leaving fuel for another flush. A strong jobs report at 8:30 AM ET would lift December hike odds (now 65.5%), and a fresh wave of AI selling after the 9:30 AM ET open could push price to the 200-day average at $73,243 and below.

Breakout · 25%
$77,500–$80,500

All three fractals point up (two-week: 5 of 6 cases, median +4.5%), Fear & Greed at 28 after 50 a day ago is a typical bounce zone, and funding is positive but low. A weak jobs report would cut hike odds, and a Nasdaq rebound after its worst day since 2025 could lift price back above the 200-day EMA ($76,817) toward today's $79,000 max pain.

What to watch today
  • Today 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC): 34,740 BTC expire on Deribit, max pain $79,000
  • 8:30 AM ET: October jobs report (consensus +59,000⁠–⁠65,000, unemployment 4.2%)
  • 9:30 AM ET: US open — will the AI selloff continue after the Nasdaq's 5.5% drop
  • Friday spot Bitcoin ETF flows — Friday evening ET, after a $430 million outflow
  • 7:00 PM ET (00:00 UTC): daily close — holding the 50-week average at $75,548
  • Difficulty adjustment around Nov 13 (est. −3%) and the Nov 13 expiry (20,655 BTC, max pain $78,000)
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • Overnight, as of 12:43 AM ET, Bitcoin traded near $75,490: down 6.2% in 24 hours, 2.4% over 7 days and 9.4% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $75,208⁠–⁠80,794.Binance
  • The 24-hour low of $75,208 is also the 30-day low: price is back where it was after the US midterms, when it dipped to $75,736 on Nov 4.Binance
  • The slide began Thursday afternoon ET alongside the AI stock selloff on Wall Street: Bitcoin broke below $76,000 before the close, and the Asian session brought almost no bounce.CoinDesk
5 more facts
  • Ether fell about 8% to $2,224, Solana 6.7% to $89.30 and XRP 8% to $1.20: altcoins dropped harder than Bitcoin.CoinDesk
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.52 trillion, the whole crypto market $2.56 trillion (down 8% in 24 hours); BTC dominance rose to 59.2%, ETH's is 10.6%.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin sits 40% below its $126,080 record (Oct 6, 2025) and is down 27% year over year.CoinGecko
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 26,800 BTC (about $2.07 billion), well above normal: selling was active.Binance
  • The Coinbase premium is near zero (+0.003%): US buyers did not step in to buy the dip, but there was no US-specific panic either.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

  • The daily RSI(14) is 37: a weak zone, but still some room before oversold (30).Binance
  • MACD at −1,413 is below its −1,066 signal line and the histogram (−346) is widening: downside momentum is building.Binance
  • Price fell below the 20-day EMA ($79,189), 50-day EMA ($79,813) and 200-day EMA ($76,817): all three now act as resistance.Binance
5 more facts
  • The 50-week moving average is $75,548: price traded right on it, making it the first strong support; a weekly close below would weaken the picture.Binance
  • The 200-day simple moving average is $73,243 and the Mayer Multiple is 1.03: price is only 3% above the long-term trend.CoinLab
  • The 200-week moving average is $67,615, 11.6% below price; the Pi Cycle indicator reads 0.5, far from overheating.CoinLab
  • Fractals: the two-week stretch (−7.1%) resembles 6 past episodes, 5 of which were followed by gains, median +4.5%; the 50-day window shows a median +7% (4 of 6), the six-month window +18.9% (6 of 6).CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for Nov 7 (17:00 UTC) is $75,629 with an interquartile range of $74,190⁠–⁠77,158: bettors expect sideways trading near current levels, in line with our base case.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Market-wide liquidations over 24 hours were about $1.08 billion, $954 million of them longs (88%), hitting 210,000 traders.Crypto
  • In the sharpest hour, as the S&P 500 was down 3.8%, $428 million of longs were liquidated.Kucoin
  • Open interest in Binance BTC futures fell 6.7% in 24 hours to 95,016 BTC ($7.17 billion): leverage was flushed, though not fully.Binance
5 more facts
  • Binance funding is 0.0049% per 8 hours (5.4% annualized) versus a 30-day average of 0.0055%: even after the drop, shorts are not paying.Binance
  • Funding elsewhere: Bybit 0.001%, OKX 0.0034%, Hyperliquid 0.01% per 8 hours — negative nowhere.Bybit
  • Binance's long/short account ratio is 2.92 (74.5% long), top traders 2.18: retail keeps trying to catch the bottom.Binance
  • The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.97: market sellers remain slightly stronger.Binance
  • Our squeeze index reads −23: retail is still leaning long, so another stop-run lower is a bigger risk than a short squeeze.CoinLab

4Options

  • Today at 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC), 34,740 BTC of options expire on Deribit with max pain at $79,000 and a put/call ratio of 0.37: most calls will expire worthless.Deribit
  • The next big expiry is Nov 13: 20,655 BTC, max pain $78,000, put/call 1.24.Deribit
  • The monthly Nov 27 expiry holds 68,186 BTC with max pain at $80,000; the Dec 25 expiry holds 139,983 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The DVOL volatility index is 40.4 versus 42 a week ago: options price a daily move of about ±2.1% (±$1,600) — no panic in options.Deribit
  • Put/call across all open interest is 0.68; open interest totals 353,482 BTC ($26.6 billion).Deribit
  • The Nov 27 skew is −5.8: puts are pricier than calls as traders hedge against further downside.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $430.2 million on Nov 5: FBTC about $200 million, IBIT $105 million, GBTC $49.9 million.Bloomingbit
  • A day earlier, Nov 4, saw a $74.6 million inflow; before that came three straight outflow days: $643 million (Oct 30), $399 million (Nov 2) and $116 million (Nov 3).SoSoValue
  • Ether ETFs lost $431.5 million in the week from Nov 2 and Solana ETFs $71.5 million; only XRP funds were positive ($4.3 million).Kucoin
4 more facts
  • Strategy bought 811 BTC for $65.5 million at $80,846 between Oct 26 and Nov 1; it holds 849,327 BTC at an average $75,451 — price has fallen to its cost basis.Benzinga
  • Strategy funded the purchase by selling 1.18 million common shares for $164 million and spent another $208 million buying back STRC preferred shares.Benzinga
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of supply), worth about $98 billion.CoinGecko
  • On Nov 5, bitcoin miner stocks fell 15⁠–⁠20% and crypto-related stocks more than 10%, tracking AI shares lower.CoinDesk

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 28 (Fear), down from 50 a day earlier and 71 (Greed) a month ago.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature is 28 out of 100: across eight metrics the market sits in the cold half of the cycle.CoinLab
  • MVRV is 1.42 (as of Nov 2), the 33rd percentile of history: holders are in modest profit on average.Coinmetrics
4 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis is about $75,774 (as of Oct 30): price has slipped below it, so recent buyers are underwater on average.Bgeometrics
  • Long-term holders cut their holdings by 248,000 BTC in Q3, while spot ETFs added 79,800 BTC over the same period.21shares
  • Large wallets added about 60,000 BTC in October, per an estimate published Nov 5, as price bounced toward $80,000.Invezz
  • Stablecoin supply is $295.5 billion: down 2% in a week and 4.6% ($14.1 billion) in 30 days — no fresh money is flowing into crypto.Defillama

7Mining

  • Hashrate is about 1,036 EH/s; difficulty is 148.4 T.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is due around Nov 13 (in 980 blocks), estimated at −3%; the previous one was +5.5%.mempool.space
  • Fees are minimal: 3 sat/vB for fast confirmation, 1 sat/vB within an hour.mempool.space
4 more facts
  • Block height is 974,764, with 75,236 blocks to the halving (around April 2028).mempool.space
  • Hashprice was $33.26 per PH/s per day on Nov 2; with the price drop, miner revenue is falling further.Millionminer
  • Bernstein cut price targets on seven miners by up to 54% on Nov 4, citing uncertainty over Texas data center construction after the election.CoinDesk
  • VanEck sees miners as oversold: shares of those pivoting to AI data centers fell 35% on average in October, while their grid connections are scarce.CoinDesk

8Macro

  • On Thursday the Nasdaq sank 5.5% to 24,315 and entered a correction, the S&P 500 fell 4.4% to 7,354 and the Dow 3.4% (1,833 points): the worst day since April 2025.CNBC
  • The trigger was fear that Democrats' midterm wins will slow AI data center construction: Nvidia fell 9% and the Magnificent Seven lost more than $1 trillion.CNBC
  • The selloff erased about $2.5 trillion in market value; the SOX semiconductor index fell 9⁠–⁠12%.Cnn
7 more facts
  • The VIX jumped 70% to 28.2, its highest since late March.Yahoo Finance
  • Asia extended the rout overnight: the Nikkei was down as much as 6⁠–⁠7% and the Kospi 7⁠–⁠8.8%, triggering a trading halt in Korea.Washingtonpost
  • Overnight, US futures diverged: Nasdaq-100 futures +1%, S&P 500 flat, Dow −0.9%.CNBC
  • The 2-year Treasury yield fell 12 bp to 4.46% and the 10-year 6 bp to 4.84% (as of Nov 5): money moved into bonds.Treasury
  • The dollar index (DXY) is 101.77 (+0.2%), gold $4,051 (−1.5%), oil $91.30 (+0.9% on the day, −12% over 5 days).Yahoo Finance
  • At 8:30 AM ET today, the October jobs report: consensus +59,000⁠–⁠65,000 jobs, unemployment 4.2%, wages +0.3% m/m.CNBC
  • Fed officials Logan and Musalem argue for more hikes; Polymarket puts a December hike (Dec 8⁠–⁠9) at 65.5% and a hold at 33.5%.Yahoo Finance

9Regulation and events

  • After their midterm win, House Democrats are drafting a broader crypto market structure bill that would strengthen the SEC and weaken the CFTC; the new Congress convenes Jan 3, 2027.Decrypt
  • The CLARITY Act, passed by the House in July 2025, is stuck in the Senate; Republicans call the Democrats' plan a messaging bill.Decrypt
  • The Binance hack (from Oct 29) totals about $6.3⁠–⁠6.4 billion; Chainalysis attributes it to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, and about $2.8 billion had been frozen by Nov 3.Chainalysis
3 more facts
  • Binance has resumed withdrawals and pledged to fully reimburse customers.Cnn
  • Strategy CFO Andrew Kang is stepping down in early November.Benzinga
  • Next Fed decisions: Dec 8⁠–⁠9 and Jan 26⁠–⁠27; Polymarket gives a January hold 74.5%.Polymarket

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
39
Base case came true
74%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
95%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 5, 2026 · overnight$80,490$75,765 (-5.9%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-market$79,673$76,040 (-4.5%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
November 4, 2026 · overnight$77,409$80,520 (+4.0%) Sideways, 45%Breakoutno
November 4, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,447$79,662 (+1.7%) Sideways, 47%Breakoutno
November 3, 2026 · overnight$76,719$77,390 (+0.6%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 3, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,676$78,298 (+1.1%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 2, 2026 · overnight$78,370$76,944 (-1.9%) Sideways, 52%Pullbackno
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,200$77,428 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 1, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 16, 2026$82,202$81,616 (-0.8%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 15, 2026$81,108$82,246 (+0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

November 6, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 6, 2026 · overnightNovember 5, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 5, 2026 · overnightNovember 4, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 4, 2026 · overnightNovember 3, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 3, 2026 · overnightNovember 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight