Sign in
ENRU
Market cap$2.52T-3.7%BTC dominance60.0%Fear & Greed28BTC$75,754-0.1%ETH$2,228-0.2%BNB$695.09+0.1%XRP$1.15-0.6%SOL$88.95-0.8%TRX$0.3199+0.1%ZEC$1,248-1.0%HYPE$76.51-1.2%XMR$604.97-0.9%DOGE$0.0709-1.2%
This is the archived brief for November 8, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Sunday, November 8, 2026

Bitcoin today, November 8, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Nov 8, 8:43 AM ET · price at release $76,064Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:30 AM ET Sunday, ahead of a quiet session with US markets closed, Bitcoin traded at $76,064: up 0.2% over 24 hours in a narrow $75,571⁠–⁠76,200 range and down 2.9% on the week, holding the 50-week average ($75,560) and Strategy's cost basis ($75,451) for a fifth day.

  • No US data came out today.
  • Base case for the next 24 hours: sideways at $74,900⁠–⁠77,200 (55%) — Polymarket's Monday median is $76,122 and Monday's options max pain is $76,000.
  • Key risks are tonight's 7 PM ET weekly close after $1.28B of ETF outflows last week and 76.5% odds of a December Fed hike; Tuesday's CPI is the week's main event.
Price when the brief was released
$76,064
Nov 8, 8:43 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 8, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$74,900–$77,200
55%
55%
25%
20%
Resistance
$76,830
$78,000
$79,500
Support
$75,560
$74,890
$73,240
Sideways · 55%
$74,900–$77,200

A weekend and a data-free Monday: spot volume is only 4,986 BTC and DVOL at 40.4 implies roughly ±$1,600. Monday's expiry has max pain at $76,000, and Polymarket's Nov 9 median is $76,122 with an interquartile range of $74,784⁠–⁠77,341. Below, the 50-week average ($75,560), the short-term holder cost basis ($75,796) and Strategy's cost ($75,451) offer support; above, the 200-day EMA ($76,826) caps. Our base case matches the betting market.

Pullback · 25%
$72,800–$74,900

MACD is negative, ETFs bled $1.28B last week, stablecoins are shrinking (−$14.2B in 30 days) and a December Fed hike is priced at 76.5%. Retail is crowded long (75.5% of accounts) and skew has shifted back toward puts. A weekly close below $75,560 and a break of the $74,888 low in thin liquidity could run stops toward $73,000⁠–⁠73,240 (the 200-day average).

Breakout · 20%
$77,200–$79,500

Fear (28) and a cold market temperature of 28/100 are a typical bounce zone; fractals lean higher (two-week window 4 of 6, median +7.1%), downside momentum has faded for three days and whales bought the dip. Reclaiming the 200-day EMA ($76,826) and the $76,500⁠–⁠77,500 liquidation cluster opens a path to $78,000 (Nov 13 max pain); without ETF inflows, $80,000 within a day is unlikely.

What to watch today
  • Tonight, 6 PM ET: CME futures and US index futures reopen
  • 7 PM ET (00:00 UTC Nov 9): weekly candle close — can $75,560 hold?
  • Monday, 3 AM ET (08:00 UTC): 7,932 BTC Deribit expiry, max pain $76,000
  • Monday morning: possible Strategy 8-K on Bitcoin purchases
  • Headlines on US strikes on Iran and talks in Qatar
  • Monday, 9:30 AM ET: US open and the first ETF flow data after the weekend
  • Tuesday, Nov 10, 8:30 AM ET: October CPI (core consensus +0.2% m/m)
  • Nov 13: difficulty adjustment (est. −4.7%) and a 33,424 BTC expiry with max pain at $78,000
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 8:30 AM ET Sunday, Bitcoin traded at $76,064: up 0.2% over 24 hours, down 2.9% over 7 days and 8.0% over 30 days.Binance
  • The 24-hour range was just $75,571⁠–⁠76,200 (0.8%), the second straight day in the tightest band of the month.Binance
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 4,986 BTC (about $378M) — classic weekend liquidity, with big players sitting out.Binance
6 more facts
  • The 30-day low is $74,888 (Nov 6) and the weekly high $81,196 (Nov 4); from that peak the price lost up to 7.8%.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.53 trillion and the whole crypto market at $2.54 trillion; BTC dominance was 60.0%, ETH 10.7%.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin sits 39.7% below its $126,080 record (Oct 6, 2025) and is down 25.5% year over year.CoinGecko
  • Altcoins were flat on Sunday too: Ether $2,237 (−0.3% on the day), Solana $89.4 (−0.7%), XRP $1.16, BNB $698; ETH/BTC at 0.0295.Binance
  • Altcoins took a bigger weekly hit than Bitcoin: NEAR −15%, Bitcoin Cash −13%, Hyperliquid −12%, Stellar −11%, XRP −7%, Solana −6%; TRON (+3%) and Zcash (+3%) were up.Crypto
  • The Coinbase premium was flat (−0.001%): US buyers were neither bidding nor dumping harder than the rest of the world over the weekend.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) is 38.8 — weak, but still well above oversold (30).Binance
  • MACD at −1,514 sits below its signal line at −1,218; the histogram is −296 vs −308 this morning — downside momentum persists but has faded for a third day.Binance
  • Price is below the 20-day EMA ($78,632), 50-day EMA ($79,530) and 200-day EMA ($76,826); the 200-day EMA, $760 overhead, is the nearest resistance.Binance
6 more facts
  • The 50-week moving average is $75,560 and price has held it for five days; the weekly candle closes at 7 PM ET tonight (00:00 UTC), and a close below would weaken the picture.Binance
  • The 200-day simple moving average is $73,240 and the Mayer Multiple 1.04 (50th historical percentile): price is 3.9% above the long-term trend.CoinLab
  • The 200-week moving average is $67,639, with price 12.5% above it; Pi Cycle reads 0.50, far from overheating.CoinLab
  • Fractals: the two-week stretch (−6.2%) matches 6 historical episodes, 4 of which rose afterward (median +7.1%); the 50-day window was up in 5 of 6 (median +2.1%), the six-month window 6 of 6 (median +26.5%).CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for Nov 9 (12 PM ET) is $76,122, with an interquartile range of $74,784⁠–⁠77,341 and a 51% chance of finishing above the report price — the betting market sees the same sideways drift as our base case.Polymarket
  • Analysts flag $76,000 as the breakout threshold, $78,000⁠–⁠80,000 as the resistance zone, and liquidation clusters at $76,500⁠–⁠77,500 and below $75,000.Crypto

3Derivatives

  • Binance BTC futures open interest is 96,068 BTC ($7.30B): −0.4% on the day and −3.5% on the week — traders aren't rebuilding leverage after the Nov 5⁠–⁠6 flush.Binance
  • Binance funding is 0.0044% per 8 hours (4.9% annualized), below the 30-day average of 0.0059%: leveraged long demand is muted.Binance
  • Elsewhere, Bybit and Hyperliquid pay 0.01% per 8 hours (11% annualized) and OKX is near zero — no short skew anywhere.Bybit
5 more facts
  • The Binance perpetual traded slightly below spot: mark $76,028 vs index $76,070, a −0.05% basis — sellers a touch more active in derivatives.Binance
  • Binance long/short account ratio is 3.08 (75.5% long) vs 1.87 for top traders: retail is crowded long while larger players stay cautious.Binance
  • The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.86 — market sellers outpace buyers, though volume is thin.Binance
  • CoinLab's squeeze index is −3 (−12 this morning): the long-side tilt has mostly faded and metric agreement is only 29% — no obvious side for a squeeze.CoinLab
  • Weekend liquidations were minimal: the Binance feed shows about $1.9M of longs and $1.2M of shorts (a lower bound); the last big wave hit Nov 5⁠–⁠6 at roughly $1B a day, ~$0.9B of it longs.Crypto

4Options

  • Monday, Nov 9, at 08:00 UTC (3 AM ET), 7,932 BTC of Deribit options expire with max pain at $76,000 and a 0.13 put/call ratio — almost all calls; Tuesday adds 1,002 BTC with the same max pain.Deribit
  • The next big expiry is Nov 13: 33,424 BTC, max pain $78,000, put/call 0.68.Deribit
  • The monthly Nov 27 expiry holds 72,034 BTC with max pain at $80,000; the Dec 25 expiry 140,474 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
4 more facts
  • DVOL is 40.4 (40.0 a week ago), implying a daily move of about ±2.1%, or ±$1,600.Deribit
  • Put/call across all open interest is 0.69, with total open interest at 338,293 BTC ($25.7B).Deribit
  • The Nov 27 skew is −4.7 vs −3.4 this morning: demand for downside protection ticked back up after two days of cooling.Deribit
  • On Nov 6, the most-traded contracts were November $73,000 and $74,000 puts: puts dominate volume, calls dominate open interest.Yahoo Finance

5ETFs and institutions

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $411.9M on Nov 6: IBIT −$403M, with FBTC (+$42.8M) the only inflow. No trading on weekends; the next print is Monday's.Tftc
  • In the first week of November (Nov 2⁠–⁠6), the funds shed $1.28B: four outflow days out of five, with an inflow only on Nov 4 (+$74.6M).Tftc
  • Cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs total $55.7B and assets $95.9B, or 6.28% of Bitcoin's market cap (as of Nov 6).Tokenpost
4 more facts
  • Ether ETFs lost $365.2M on the week ($93.3M on Nov 6, a fifth straight outflow day) — about $1.65B combined with Bitcoin ETFs.Coinotag
  • Strategy holds 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451 — Bitcoin is only 0.8% above the company's cost basis.The Block
  • Strategy's last buy was 811 BTC for $65.5M (avg. $80,846) over Oct 26–Nov 1; it usually discloses trades on Mondays, though Saylor's Sunday tracker post has lately not always meant a purchase.The Block
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30M BTC (6.2% of supply), worth about $98.8B; after Strategy the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One (43,514) and Strive (43,124).CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 28 (Fear), up from 25 (Extreme Fear) a day ago; it was 34 a week ago and 59 a month ago.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature is 28/100: across eight cycle metrics the market sits in the cold zone, where buyers have historically outnumbered sellers.CoinLab
  • MVRV is 1.42 (as of Nov 2), the 33rd historical percentile: holders are on average sitting on a modest ~42% gain.Coinmetrics
5 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis is about $75,796 (as of Nov 1): price sits right on it, leaving recent buyers roughly breakeven.Bgeometrics
  • On Nov 6, a whale dormant for over a year bought 3,009 BTC (about $228M) and another 1,286 BTC left Binance — large buyers used the dip.Blockonomi
  • On Nov 5, about 11,000 BTC net left exchanges for cold storage, but CryptoQuant's 30-day apparent demand stood near −160,000 BTC (as of Nov 5).Crypto
  • Stablecoin supply is $294.1B: −2.0% on the week and −4.6% (−$14.2B) over 30 days — no fresh money is entering crypto.Defillama
  • Yet retail is 75.5% long by Binance accounts — a lopsided positioning that, in fearful markets, rarely precedes a sustained rally without a shakeout.Binance

7Mining

  • Hashrate is about 993 EH/s; difficulty is 148.4 T.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is due around Nov 13 (678 blocks left, epoch 66% done), estimated at −4.7% as miners power down after the price drop; the previous one was +5.5%.mempool.space
  • Fees are at the floor: 1 sat/vB for both fast and within-the-hour confirmation — the network is nearly empty.mempool.space
3 more facts
  • Block height is 975,066, with 74,934 blocks to the halving (estimated April 2028).mempool.space
  • VanEck said on Nov 5 that miner stocks look oversold: shares of miners pivoting to AI data centers fell 35% on average in October.CoinDesk
  • Bernstein on Nov 4 cut price targets on seven miners by up to 54%, citing risk to data-center buildouts after the midterms.CoinDesk

8Macro

  • It's Sunday: US markets are closed and no 8:30 AM ET data came out; US index futures reopen at 6 PM ET tonight.Bls
  • On Friday the Nasdaq rebounded 1.1% to 24,579 and the S&P 500 0.3% to 7,377, but for the week the S&P 500 lost 2.7% and the Nasdaq 3.4% — a fourth straight down week.Upi
  • The week's main event is October CPI on Tuesday, Nov 10, at 8:30 AM ET: consensus is +0.2% m/m for core after +0.3% in September, and about +0.24% for headline.Morningstar
7 more facts
  • This release won't include annual rates because BLS skipped the October 2025 CPI during the shutdown; the Cleveland Fed nowcast is +0.24% headline and +0.21% core m/m.Stocktitan
  • October's jobs report (Nov 6) ran hot: +165K payrolls vs ~60K expected, unemployment at 4.1%, wages +0.4% m/m.CNBC
  • The Fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% after a Sep 16 hike; it was held on Oct 28. The next meeting is Dec 8⁠–⁠9.Axios
  • Polymarket prices a December hike at 76.5% and a hold at 21.5%; for January it expects a hold (77%).Polymarket
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Nov 6 that further hikes remain possible despite the tech selloff — Fed rhetoric stays hawkish.CNBC
  • The 2-year Treasury yield was 4.51% (+5 bp) and the 10-year 4.86% (+2 bp) as of Nov 6 — tight money weighs on risk assets.Treasury
  • The DXY was 102.3 (+0.7% Friday), gold $4,075 (+4.5% over 5 days), oil $90.8 (−12.8% over 5 days); the VIX was 25.6 (+32% on the week).Yahoo Finance

9Regulation and events

  • On Nov 7 Trump confirmed new 'minor' US strikes on Iranian air defenses on Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz — the first since the midterms; Bitcoin barely reacted.Aljazeera
  • After the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate, the SEC and CFTC signed a memorandum of understanding on Nov 3 and are writing crypto rules without legislation.Mondovisione
  • House Democrats are reportedly rewriting CLARITY to expand SEC powers, trim the CFTC's role and add ethics limits on officials' crypto businesses.Benzinga
4 more facts
  • The SEC currently has 2 of 5 commissioners and the CFTC 1 of 5 (Michael Selig); the new Congress convenes Jan 3, 2027.Forbes
  • The Binance hack (from Oct 29) totals about $6.3⁠–⁠6.4B; Chainalysis attributes it to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, with about $2.8B frozen by Nov 3.Chainalysis
  • Polymarket for November: 58.5% odds of touching $80,000, 59.5% of a dip to $72,500 and 39.5% to $70,000 — bettors expect a wide range.Polymarket
  • The weekly candle closes at 00:00 UTC on Nov 9 (7 PM ET Sunday); minutes of the October FOMC meeting come out Nov 18 at 2 PM ET.Gomarkets

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
43
Base case came true
77%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
95%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 7, 2026 · overnight$76,023$75,866 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 7, 2026 · morning, pre-market$75,902$75,980 (+0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · overnight$75,491$75,907 (+0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · morning, pre-market$75,650$75,900 (-0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 5, 2026 · overnight$80,490$75,765 (-5.9%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-market$79,673$76,040 (-4.5%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
November 4, 2026 · overnight$77,409$80,520 (+4.0%) Sideways, 45%Breakoutno
November 4, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,447$79,662 (+1.7%) Sideways, 47%Breakoutno
November 3, 2026 · overnight$76,719$77,390 (+0.6%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 3, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,676$78,298 (+1.1%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 2, 2026 · overnight$78,370$76,944 (-1.9%) Sideways, 52%Pullbackno
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,200$77,428 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 1, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

November 8, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 8, 2026 · overnightNovember 7, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 7, 2026 · overnightNovember 6, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 6, 2026 · overnightNovember 5, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 5, 2026 · overnightNovember 4, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 4, 2026 · overnightNovember 3, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 3, 2026 · overnightNovember 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight