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Market cap$2.54T-2.7%BTC dominance59.6%Fear & Greed29BTC$75,412-0.9%ETH$2,139-4.4%BNB$689.90-1.1%XRP$1.11-4.2%SOL$87.54-2.3%TRX$0.3174-0.9%ZEC$1,223-3.8%HYPE$76.32-1.5%XMR$602.00-0.5%DOGE$0.0704-1.2%
This is the archived brief for November 9, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Monday, November 9, 2026

Bitcoin on November 9, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Nov 9, 12:46 AM ET · price at release $74,578Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 12:30 AM ET, Bitcoin traded at $74,578, down 1.7% over 24 hours.

  • An hour before Sunday's weekly close it plunged to $73,510 — the lowest since Aug 21 — on about $856M of mostly long liquidations; the week closed as a fifth straight red candle and below the 50-week average, and Asia's 3⁠–⁠6% equity rebound didn't carry over to crypto.
  • Base case for the next 24 hours: sideways at $73,500⁠–⁠75,900 (50%) ahead of Tuesday's 8:30 AM ET CPI; the Polymarket median is $74,640, with the 200-day average at $73,224 and the overnight low as support.
  • Main risks: continued ETF outflows ($1.28B last week) and price below Strategy's $75,451 cost basis.
Price when the brief was released
$74,578
Nov 9, 12:46 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 9, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$73,500–$75,900
50%
50%
30%
20%
Resistance
$75,600
$76,800
$77,300
Support
$73,500
$73,200
$72,500
Sideways · 50%
$73,500–$75,900

Ahead of Tuesday's CPI (8:30 AM ET, just outside the 24-hour window) big players usually wait: DVOL at 40.2 implies a move of about ±$1,570, and the Polymarket median for noon ET Nov 10 is $74,640 with an interquartile range of $73,066⁠–⁠75,973 — nearly matching our base case. Support comes from the $73,510 overnight low and the $73,224 200-day average; resistance from the $75,725 short-term holder cost basis and the $75,220 50-week average, below which the week closed. The overnight flush ($856M, 90% longs) removed part of the leverage.

Pullback · 30%
$71,500–$73,500

A fifth straight red week, a close below the 50-week average, MACD accelerating lower again, $1.28B of ETF outflows last week, shrinking stablecoin supply and a likely December Fed hike (76.5⁠–⁠80%). Retail still holds 73.7% longs and funding is positive, leaving fuel for another liquidation wave. A break of $73,200 (200-day) opens $72,500 and the Aug 21 low of $73,005, and a weak Nasdaq open on Nvidia could speed that up.

Breakout · 20%
$75,900–$77,800

Fear at 29, a cold market temperature of 28/100 and fractals (two-week: 6 of 6 up, median +5.6%) are typical bounce territory; Asian stocks and US index futures are rising, and a Monday Strategy purchase filing could be a catalyst. Reclaiming $75,700 (short-term holder cost basis) opens the 200-day EMA at $76,800 and the 100-day at $77,300; beyond that is unlikely within a day without ETF inflows.

What to watch today
  • Today, 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC): 8,590 BTC Deribit expiry (max pain $75,500)
  • Today, morning ET: possible Strategy disclosure of last week's purchases
  • Today, 9:30 AM ET: US open — Nvidia's first session after the Huang scandal
  • Today, noon ET: Trump meets Qatar's prime minister on Iran
  • Tonight: spot Bitcoin ETF flows for Monday
  • Tuesday, 8:30 AM ET: October CPI (outside the 24-hour window, but markets will position ahead)
  • Holding $73,200⁠–⁠73,500 (200-day average and overnight low)
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • Overnight, as of 12:30 AM ET Monday, Bitcoin traded at $74,578: down 1.7% over 24 hours, 2.9% over 7 days and 10.1% over 30 days.Binance
  • Around 4⁠–⁠5 PM ET Sunday, an hour before the weekly close, price dropped from $75,744 to $73,510 — the lowest since Aug 21; Asia lifted it back to $75,600 by 9 PM ET, but it slid again toward $74,400 overnight.Binance
  • The Nov 2⁠–⁠8 week closed at $74,851 (Binance) — a fifth straight red weekly candle; since the Oct 4 close ($86,507 on Coinbase) Bitcoin has lost about 13.6%.Cryptoticker
5 more facts
  • 24-hour range: $73,510⁠–⁠76,200; Binance BTC/USDT spot volume was 11,643 BTC (about $874M), roughly double the day before — the drop saw real selling.Binance
  • The week's high was $81,196 (Nov 4, after the midterms), so price gave back up to 9.5% from it; the 90-day low is $62,535 (Aug 11).Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.50 trillion, the whole crypto market $2.49 trillion; BTC dominance 60.1%, ETH 10.5%.CoinGecko
  • Price is 40.9% below the $126,080 record (Oct 6, 2025); Bitcoin is down 26.7% year over year.CoinGecko
  • Altcoins fell harder: Ether $2,130 (−4.7% in 24h, overnight low near $2,060), XRP $1.10 (−5.6%), Solana $86.9 (−2.6%), BNB $685 (−1.7%); ETH/BTC 0.0286.Binance

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) is 34.9: weak territory, not far from oversold (30).Binance
  • MACD −1,721 is below its signal line at −1,334, and the histogram widened to −387 from −296 yesterday: after three days of fading, downside momentum picked up again.Binance
  • Price is below the 20-day EMA ($78,139), 50-day EMA ($79,289) and 200-day EMA ($76,813): all three now act as resistance.Binance
5 more facts
  • The 50-week moving average is $75,220: the week closed below it for the first time after five days of holding, which weakens the medium-term picture.Binance
  • The 200-day simple moving average is $73,224 and the Mayer Multiple 1.02 (49th percentile): the overnight low of $73,510 stopped $300 above it; the last daily close below this average was Aug 18.Cryptoticker
  • Nearest support: $73,510 (overnight low) and $73,005 (Aug 21 low), then $69,000⁠–⁠70,000; resistance: $75,500⁠–⁠75,600 (overnight bounce) and $76,100⁠–⁠76,200 (Sunday's high).Cryptoticker
  • The 200-week average is $67,760, with price 10.1% above it; Pi Cycle reads 0.50, far from overheating.CoinLab
  • Fractals: the two-week stretch (−6.0%) resembles 6 historical episodes, all 6 followed by gains (median +5.6%); the 50-day window — 4 of 6 up (median +2.6%), the six-month window — 5 of 6 (median +22.6%). Statistics, not a promise.CoinLab

3Derivatives

  • Crypto liquidations over 24 hours totaled about $856M, 90% of them longs; more than 140,000 traders were hit.Mitrade
  • About $715M of longs were wiped out in the hour before the weekly close alone: Bitcoin lost 2.8% in 15 minutes, and Ether longs lost $343M.Kucoin
  • Binance's BTC liquidation feed shows at least $94M of longs versus $6M of shorts over 24 hours (a lower bound: the exchange doesn't publish every trade).CoinLab
5 more facts
  • Open interest in Binance BTC futures is 96,508 BTC ($7.20B): −0.9% in 24 hours and −3.6% for the week — traders aren't re-levering after the flush.Binance
  • Funding on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid is 0.01% per 8h (11% annualized), OKX 0.006%: even after the drop, longs keep paying shorts.Binance
  • Binance account long/short ratio is 2.81 (73.7% long), top traders 2.00; taker buy/sell ratio 0.97: retail is still crowded long.Binance
  • Futures trade nearly flat to spot: mark $74,553 versus index $74,567; the Coinbase premium over Binance is about zero — US buyers didn't step in on the dip.CoinLab
  • CoinLab's squeeze index is −1: no clear one-sided imbalance — funding is above normal while open interest is below.CoinLab

4Options

  • Today, Nov 9, at 08:00 UTC (3:00 AM ET), 8,590 BTC of options expire on Deribit with max pain at $75,500 and put/call 0.20 — mostly calls, most will expire worthless.Deribit
  • The next big expiry is Friday, Nov 13: 33,902 BTC, max pain $77,000, put/call 0.69.Deribit
  • The monthly Nov 27 expiry holds 72,867 BTC with max pain at $80,000; the Dec 25 expiry — 141,506 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
4 more facts
  • The DVOL volatility index is 40.2 (40.3 a week ago): options price a daily move of about ±2.1%, or ±$1,570 — traders aren't bidding up volatility ahead of CPI.Deribit
  • Put/call across all open interest is 0.70; total open interest is 343,922 BTC ($25.6B).Deribit
  • Skew for Nov 27 is −3.8 versus −4.7 yesterday afternoon: demand for downside protection cooled slightly.Deribit
  • On Nov 6 the most traded Deribit contract was the Nov 27 $74,000 put (2,259 BTC), followed by the $69,000 and $75,000 puts; the largest position is the December $80,000 call (8,143 BTC).Bitcoin.com

5ETFs and institutions

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $411.9M on Nov 6: IBIT −$403M, with only FBTC seeing inflows (+$42.8M). Monday's data will come after the US close.Tftc
  • Funds lost $1.28B over Nov 2⁠–⁠6 — the worst week since late June; IBIT bled on all five days, about $1.21B in total.Cryptoticker
  • Cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at $55.7B, with assets around $95.9B (as of Nov 6).Tokenpost
3 more facts
  • Ether ETFs lost $365M over the week — a sixth straight week of outflows.Startupfortune
  • Strategy holds 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451: after the overnight drop, Bitcoin sits 1.2% below the company's cost basis. It usually discloses the prior week's purchases on Monday mornings ET.CoinGecko
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30M BTC (6.2% of supply), worth about $96.9B; after Strategy the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One (43,514) and Strive (43,124).CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 29 ("fear"): 28 a day ago, 37 a week ago, 64 a month ago; the one-year average is 31.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature is 28 out of 100: across eight cycle metrics the market is in the cold zone, where history shows buying more often than selling.CoinLab
  • MVRV is 1.42 (as of Nov 2), 33rd percentile: holders are on average about 42% in profit.Coinmetrics
5 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis is about $75,725 (as of Nov 2): price is now below it, so recent buyers are underwater on average — that usually adds selling into bounces.Bgeometrics
  • More coins are reaching exchanges at a loss: such transfers rose from 2,559 to 32,695 BTC, while coins sent in profit fell from 29,849 to 4,089 BTC; exchange reserves are about 2.59M BTC.Coincentral
  • Long-term holders cut their balances by 248,000 BTC (about $17.4B) in Q3 — nearly three times ETF purchases over the same period.21shares
  • On Nov 6 a whale dormant for over a year bought 3,009 BTC (about $228M): big dip buyers exist, but ETF flows are stronger for now.Blockonomi
  • Stablecoin supply is $294.8B: −1.6% for the week and −4.2% (−$12.9B) over 30 days — no new money is coming into crypto.Defillama

7Mining

  • Hashrate is about 967 EH/s (around 1,021 EH/s on Nov 4); difficulty is 148.4T.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is due around Nov 13 (607 blocks away, 70% through the epoch), estimated at −6.1%: miners are switching off after the price drop; the previous adjustment was +5.5%.mempool.space
  • Hashprice was $32.86 per PH/s per day on Nov 2 (−8.7% for the week), below the 30-day average of $37.49; after the overnight drop miner revenue is lower still.Hashrateindex
3 more facts
  • Fees are at the floor: 1 sat/vB for both fast and within-the-hour confirmation — the network is nearly empty.mempool.space
  • Block height is 975,137; 74,863 blocks remain until the halving (around April 2028).mempool.space
  • VanEck called miner stocks oversold on Nov 5: shares of miners that pivoted to AI data centers fell 35% on average in October.CoinDesk

8Macro

  • On Friday the Nasdaq rebounded 1.1% to 24,579 and the S&P 500 0.3% to 7,377; for the week the S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the Nasdaq 3.4%; the VIX is 25.6 (+32% for the week).Yahoo Finance
  • Asia bounced overnight after Friday's rout: Nikkei +3.3% (above 59,300), Kospi +1.4%, Taiwan's Taiex +5.6% on TSMC; S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 0.5%. Bitcoin didn't follow stocks higher.Investinglive
  • Nvidia's board opened an independent investigation after Jensen Huang admitted a relationship with a woman US officials believe was recruited by Chinese intelligence; Huang remains CEO. Nvidia's first session since the news starts at today's 9:30 AM ET open.Investinglive
5 more facts
  • The week's key event is October CPI on Tuesday, Nov 10, at 8:30 AM ET: consensus is +0.2% month over month for core; this release will have no annual rates because of the data gap in 2025.Morningstar
  • The labor market is hot: October payrolls rose 165,000 versus 65,000 expected, and unemployment fell to 4.1% versus 4.2% expected.Kucoin
  • The fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% after the Sept 16 hike; the next meeting is Dec 8⁠–⁠9. Polymarket puts a December hike at 76.5%, futures at about 80%.Polymarket
  • The 10-year Treasury yields 4.86%, the 2-year 4.51% (as of Nov 6); the DXY dollar index is 102.1.Treasury
  • Gold rose 1.5% to $4,134 (+4.1% for the week); Brent traded near $98 overnight, WTI near $90⁠–⁠91 (−6.3% for the week); the yen is at 158.3 per dollar.Investinglive

9Regulation and events

  • Trump called new strikes on Iran "highly unlikely" while nuclear and Strait of Hormuz talks continue, but Rubio said the talks produced no results; Trump meets Qatar's prime minister, the mediator, today at noon ET.Investinglive
  • The SEC sent the White House (OIRA) a draft rule on broker-dealers handling crypto assets — capital and customer-asset protection requirements; the text isn't public yet.Crypto Briefing
  • After CLARITY stalled in the Senate, the SEC and CFTC signed a memorandum of understanding on Nov 3 and are writing crypto rules without a statute.Mondovisione
5 more facts
  • Sen. Richard Blumenthal asked Binance, Tether, World Liberty Financial and others for records on illicit crypto use and Trump-linked crypto businesses, due by Jan 4, 2027.Kucoin
  • On Nov 6 FinCEN barred US financial institutions from processing certain transfers involving the MEXC exchange; MEXC said it is operating normally and launched an independent compliance review.Kucoin
  • The Binance hack (since Oct 29) totals about $6.3⁠–⁠6.4B; Chainalysis attributes it to North Korea's TraderTraitor group; about $2.8B had been frozen by Nov 3.Chainalysis
  • Polymarket for November: touching $80,000 — 45% (58.5% yesterday), a drop to $72,500 — 72.5%, to $70,000 — 51.5%: betting markets shifted lower.Polymarket
  • This week: CPI and a speech by Fed Governor Waller on Tuesday, jobless claims and a RAIN token unlock (~$197M) on Thursday, PPI and a Deribit expiry on Friday, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson on Saturday.Kucoin

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
45
Base case came true
78%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
96%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 8, 2026 · overnight$75,878$74,818 (-1.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 8, 2026 · morning$76,064$74,920 (-1.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 7, 2026 · overnight$76,023$75,866 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 7, 2026 · morning$75,902$75,980 (+0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · overnight$75,491$75,907 (+0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · morning, pre-market$75,650$75,900 (-0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 5, 2026 · overnight$80,490$75,765 (-5.9%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-market$79,673$76,040 (-4.5%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
November 4, 2026 · overnight$77,409$80,520 (+4.0%) Sideways, 45%Breakoutno
November 4, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,447$79,662 (+1.7%) Sideways, 47%Breakoutno
November 3, 2026 · overnight$76,719$77,390 (+0.6%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 3, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,676$78,298 (+1.1%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 2, 2026 · overnight$78,370$76,944 (-1.9%) Sideways, 52%Pullbackno
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,200$77,428 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 1, 2026 · morning$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

November 9, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 9, 2026 · overnightNovember 8, 2026 · morningNovember 8, 2026 · overnightNovember 7, 2026 · morningNovember 7, 2026 · overnightNovember 6, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 6, 2026 · overnightNovember 5, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 5, 2026 · overnightNovember 4, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 4, 2026 · overnightNovember 3, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 3, 2026 · overnightNovember 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morningOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morningOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morningOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight