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Market cap$2.83T-2.0%BTC dominance59.3%Fear & Greed57BTC$83,435+1.2%ETH$2,512+1.1%BNB$742.32+0.2%XRP$1.37+1.3%SOL$106.86+0.0%TRX$0.3274-0.6%HYPE$81.83-1.2%ZEC$1,224+1.6%DOGE$0.0846+0.9%XMR$544.49+2.0%
This is the archived brief for October 13, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Bitcoin today, October 13, 2026: price and forecast

Morning brief · Oct 13, 1:47 AM ET · price at release $83,728

As of 1:30 AM ET Bitcoin traded at $83,728, down 0.3% over 24 hours, but Monday closed 2.3% lower, the price dropped to $81,034 overnight during a Korean stock sell-off and recovered 3.3% by morning.

  • The base case for Oct 13 is sideways trading at $82,500⁠–⁠85,000 (50%) ahead of Wednesday's US CPI: Polymarket's median for tomorrow, $83,718, almost matches the price.
  • The main risk is Brent above $106 and bets on another Fed hike; the support is the quick buyback of the dip after $686 million in longs were liquidated.
Price when the brief was released
$83,728
Oct 13, 1:47 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 13, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$82,500–$85,000
50%
50%
30%
20%
Resistance
$84,350
$85,600
$87,400
Support
$83,000
$81,000
$80,400
Sideways · 50%
$82,500–$85,000

It's the day before CPI: markets usually wait for the numbers rather than move. The overnight drop to $81,034 was bought, price is back above the $83,213 EMA20, weekly options with $83,000 max pain pull toward the middle, Polymarket's median for Oct 14 is $83,718, and DVOL barely moved.

Pullback · 30%
$80,000–$82,500

Brent above $106, a 5.24% 10-year UST yield and a strong dollar; ETF outflows ($681 million last week) have not reversed, futures takers are selling (0.91), and 60% of accounts are long — another flush could again knock leverage out toward $81,000 and the weekly low of $80,394.

Breakout · 20%
$85,000–$87,500

The fast buyback of the dip, a call-heavy options book (put/call 0.59) and falling open interest give fuel for a push above $84,350 and $85,600, but there is no strong catalyst before CPI: Polymarket gives only 11.7% odds of a price above $86,000 tomorrow.

What to watch today
  • Major US bank earnings and the Wall Street open at 9:30 AM ET
  • Bitcoin ETF flows for Oct 13 (evening)
  • Brent near $106 and news on the Houthis and the Strait of Hormuz
  • Holding $83,000 (EMA20 and weekly options max pain) and the overnight low of $81,034
  • US CPI on Wednesday Oct 14 at 8:30 AM ET: positioning will start ahead of it
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded in the morning and never edited: after the daily close it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 1:30 AM ET Bitcoin traded at $83,728, down 0.3% over 24 hours within a $81,034⁠–⁠84,352 range. The price ended up almost where it was a day earlier, but covered a 4% swing along the way.Binance
  • The Oct 12 daily candle closed at $81,850 (−2.3%) after opening at $83,773 and peaking at $84,352: Monday erased the weekend gains and closed almost at the day's low of $81,750.Binance
  • Overnight on Oct 13 the price fell to $81,034 around 8:50 PM ET (00:50 UTC) during the Asian equity sell-off, and by 1:30 AM ET it was already 3.3% above that low: the dip below $81,000 was bought back within five hours.CoinDesk
5 more facts
  • Over 7 days the price is down 2.1% (weekly range $80,394⁠–⁠85,598) and up 9.0% over 30 days (range $74,968⁠–⁠87,396). October opened near $83,600, so on the morning of Oct 13 Bitcoin sat right at the monthly open.Binance
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 15,087 BTC ($1.25 billion) versus 8,219 BTC a day earlier: turnover rose 84%, so both the drop and the rebound came on noticeably higher activity.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.68 trillion with 59.3% dominance (Ether 10.9%); the whole crypto market is $2.83 trillion, down 2.8% in 24 hours. The price is 33.6% below the $126,080 all-time high (Oct 6, 2025) and down 27.0% over the year.CoinGecko
  • Altcoins took a bigger hit: as of 1:30 AM ET ETH was $2,524 (−1.2% over 24 hours), SOL $108.1 (−3.9%), XRP $1.37 (−3.0%), DOGE $0.0845 (−3.3%). On the evening of Oct 12 ETH dipped to $2,425 and SOL lost 7.5%: Bitcoin was again the most resilient.CoinGecko
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance, adjusted for USDT/USD ($0.99884), was near zero (−0.002%; −0.12% unadjusted): US demand stood out neither as buying nor as selling overnight.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) is 53.8: the indicator sits mid-scale — no momentum either way, far from overbought 70 and oversold 30.Binance
  • MACD at 686 is below its signal line at 1,170, histogram −483: daily momentum keeps fading after the early-October peak, although both values are still above zero.Binance
  • Price is above all key averages: EMA20 $83,213, EMA50 $80,265, EMA200 $75,739. The overnight drop to $81,034 did not reach the EMA50, and the reclaim of the EMA20 by morning keeps the short-term structure intact.Binance
4 more facts
  • The 50-week MA is $76,617; the golden cross (EMA50 above EMA200) printed on Sep 13, 2026 and still holds: the medium-term trend remains up.Binance
  • Nearest resistance is the 24-hour high at $84,352, then the weekly high at $85,598 and the monthly high at $87,396. Supports are the EMA20 at $83,213, the overnight low at $81,034 and the weekly low at $80,394.Binance
  • Fractals: of 6 similar two-week stretches in history, 3 were followed by gains (median −1.2%), while on the 50-day window 5 of 6 rose (median +2.9%): the short horizon is neutral, the medium one leans bullish.CoinLab
  • Our base range of $82,500⁠–⁠85,000 almost matches Polymarket: the median price for 12:00 PM ET on Oct 14 is $83,718, half of the bets fall between $82,436 and $85,187, and the chance of being above $84,000 is 44.5%.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • According to CoinGlass, $771 million was liquidated across crypto in the 24 hours to the evening of Oct 12, $685.6 million of it longs; $631.8 million came in the last 12 hours: the drop mainly flushed buyers' leverage.The Block
  • Binance BTC liquidation stream (a lower bound) over 24 hours: longs $58.9 million versus shorts $21.6 million — almost three times more, although a day earlier it was mostly shorts being liquidated.Binance
  • Open interest in Binance BTC futures is 93,148 BTC ($7.80 billion): −0.9% over 24 hours and −3.9% over the week. Leverage is leaving the market, with no sign of large new bets on a decline.Binance
5 more facts
  • Binance funding is +0.0059% per 8 hours (6.4% annualized) versus a 30-day average of +0.0037%: longs pay slightly more than usual, but far from overheated.Binance
  • Funding elsewhere is similar: Bybit 5.9% annualized, OKX 6.1%, Hyperliquid 9.2%. The spread is small, so there is no one-sided positioning on a single venue.Bybit
  • The Binance long/short account ratio is 1.50 (60% long) and 1.61 among top traders: both the crowd and large accounts still bet on upside, so the risk of further long liquidations on a dip remains.Binance
  • The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.91: market sellers in futures still outnumber buyers, so the rebound on the morning of Oct 13 has not yet been confirmed by aggressive buying.Binance
  • Per Glassnode, in the week to Oct 11 perpetual futures cumulative volume delta swung to −$681.8 million from +$49.5 million, and spot CVD to −$90.7 million: sellers dominated both markets last week.Glassnode

4Options

  • Deribit BTC options open interest is 379,961 BTC ($31.8 billion) with a put/call ratio of 0.59: calls outnumber puts almost two to one, so the options market overall leans bullish.Deribit
  • The DVOL volatility index is 37.1 versus 36.1 a week ago: the overnight drop barely lifted implied volatility, and the market is not pricing in a big move ahead of CPI.Deribit
  • Today at 08:00 UTC 1,962 BTC expire with max pain at $83,000; on Friday Oct 16, 16,224 BTC expire, also with max pain at $83,000 and a put/call of 1.39: weekly options pull the price toward $83,000.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The month's main expiry is Oct 30: 142,554 BTC (about 37% of total open interest), max pain $78,000, put/call 0.49. The largest cluster is the $95,000 call at around 24,000 BTC.Crypto Briefing
  • The Dec 25 expiry holds 126,585 BTC with max pain at $75,000 and a put/call of 0.61: longer-dated options are also skewed toward calls.Deribit
  • Per Glassnode, in the week to Oct 11 options open interest rose 3.3% to $37.4 billion, while the 25-delta skew climbed from 2.1% to 4.46%: downside protection got more expensive.Glassnode

5ETFs and institutions

  • On Oct 12 US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $65.4 million, all of it from BlackRock's IBIT; the other funds had no flows. That is seven times less than the week's worst day, Oct 7 (−$484.9 million).Crypto Briefing
  • In the week of Oct 5⁠–⁠9 Bitcoin ETFs lost $681.1 million — the worst week since late June, ending three straight weeks of inflows. Glassnode puts the weekly outflow at $701.6 million.The Block
  • Spot Bitcoin ETF assets are about $106 billion (≈6.35% of Bitcoin's market cap); cumulative net inflows into IBIT are about $65.67 billion.Crypto Briefing
5 more facts
  • ETH ETFs lost $542 million over Oct 5⁠–⁠9, $477.1 million of it from BlackRock's ETHA; outflows have run nine straight sessions since Sep 29. Solana funds ended a record 14-week inflow streak.The Block
  • Strategy bought 250 BTC for $21.5 million at an average of $86,194 over Oct 5⁠–⁠11, bringing its holdings to 848,250 BTC. Purchases have shrunk for a second week: the prior week it bought 334 BTC.The Block
  • Strive bought 2,000 BTC for $169 million at an average of $84,422 over Sep 28–Oct 2 — its largest purchase since June, bringing it to 29,462 BTC (as of Oct 2).The Block
  • Metaplanet sold 10,000 BTC and bought back 11,000 in Q3, a net gain of 1,000 BTC; it held 44,000 BTC as of Sep 30. The company said the sale demonstrated it can quickly raise cash to support its credit standing.Cryptopolitan
  • In total 180 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC ($108.9 billion, 6.2% of supply); the leaders are Strategy, Metaplanet (44,000) and Twenty One Capital (43,514).CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 57 (Greed) versus 69 yesterday and 73 a week ago: sentiment cooled notably over the day, but the one-year average is 30, so the market is still more upbeat than usual.alternative.me
  • MVRV was 1.52 on Oct 12 — the 40th historical percentile: the average holder is up 52%, far from the overheated zone (above 3).Coinmetrics
  • CoinLab's market temperature is 38 of 100 — unchanged from yesterday and three days ago: cycle indicators point to a mid-cycle phase, not a late one.CoinLab
7 more facts
  • The Mayer Multiple is 1.16 (price over the $72,083 200-day average), price is 25.4% above the $66,748 200-week average, and the Pi Cycle ratio is 0.47 — far from a cycle-top signal (1.0).Coinmetrics
  • The short-term holder cost basis is $74,264 (as of Oct 6): the market is 13% above it, so new buyers are in profit on average.Bitcoin-data
  • Per Glassnode, in the week to Oct 11 the share of supply in profit fell from 74.5% to 71.4%, NUPL from 13.0% to 11.1%, and the realized profit/loss ratio dropped from 1.5 to 1.0: selling was no longer happening at a profit.Glassnode
  • The short- to long-term holder supply ratio rose from 14.2% to 14.5% and hot capital from 19.6% to 20.3%: more new money is in the market, and it reacts faster to declines.Glassnode
  • Exchange balances rose by 11,593 BTC to ~3.67 million BTC in the three days to Oct 12, although 30-day net outflows were 28,599 BTC: the short-term inflow to exchanges coincided with heavier selling.Crypto Briefing
  • Daily active addresses fell 5.9% to 631K in the week to Oct 11, while transfer volume was flat ($5.9 billion): network activity is steady, with no signs of panic.Glassnode
  • Stablecoin supply is $312.8 billion: −0.5% over the week but +0.8% (+$2.4 billion) over 30 days. No fresh money entered crypto over the past week.Defillama

7Mining

  • Network hashrate is 1,010 EH/s and difficulty is 132.72 T. The epoch is 74.5% complete, with 514 blocks until the retarget.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is expected on Oct 16 with a rise of about +5.2% (CoinWarz estimates +3.4%); the previous one on Oct 3 was almost flat (−0.03%).CoinWarz
  • Fees are minimal: 1 sat/vB for both fast and one-hour confirmation — the network is uncongested and on-chain transfer demand is low.mempool.space
2 more facts
  • Block height is 971,198; 78,802 blocks remain until the next halving, estimated for Apr 12, 2028.mempool.space
  • Hashprice was estimated near $40 per PH/s per day in early October after a 22% monthly rise; some public miners are converting sites to AI and HPC workloads.Bitcoin.com

8Macro

  • The DXY dollar index is 102.43: −0.15% on the day but +0.59% over five days and near its highest since April last year — a strong dollar weighs on risk assets.Yahoo Finance
  • Brent settled at $106.65 (+1.8%) on Oct 12 — the highest since Sep 15 — after a Houthi strike on Riyadh's airport and attacks on tankers off Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI was $92.45 by morning.Yahoo Finance
  • The 10-year UST yield is 5.24% and the 2-year 4.80% (as of Oct 9; the bond market was closed on Oct 12 for Columbus Day). High yields remain the main macro pressure on crypto.Treasury
4 more facts
  • The Fed hiked by 25 bp in September to 3.75⁠–⁠4.00%. Polymarket gives 80.5% odds of a pause on Oct 28 and 19.5% of another hike, and 75.5% odds of a 25 bp hike in December.Polymarket
  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,807 on Oct 12 (−0.06%), the Nasdaq at 27,246 (−0.44%), VIX 15.21 (+2.5%). Overnight Nasdaq futures lost another 0.6%.CoinDesk
  • South Korea's KOSPI fell more than 6% on Oct 13, dropping below 6,000 for the first time since late July; Samsung and SK Hynix lost about 8% on AI-valuation worries and Chinese competition. Bitcoin rebounded nonetheless.CoinDesk
  • Gold is $4,222 (+0.76% on the day, +0.84% over five days): the safe haven is rising on Middle East tensions.Yahoo Finance

9Regulation and events

  • The week's main event is US September CPI on Wednesday Oct 14 at 8:30 AM ET: 3.6⁠–⁠3.7% y/y is expected versus 3.4%, driven by gasoline, with core at 2.4⁠–⁠2.5%. A hot core print would add to bets on a December hike.Continuumeconomics
  • On Thursday Oct 15 PPI (+0.5% m/m expected) and retail sales (+0.3% m/m) are due, along with weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia and New York Fed indices.Newsquawk
  • Q3 earnings season for major US banks kicks off this week — the first read on credit quality and the impact of high rates.Newsquawk
5 more facts
  • The FOMC meets Oct 27⁠–⁠28, with the decision on Oct 28 at 2:00 PM ET. Minutes of the September meeting showed unanimous support for the hike amid persistent inflation.Federal Reserve
  • The crypto market structure bill (CLARITY Act) is stuck in the Senate after the failed Sep 15 cloture vote (49⁠–⁠50); the Senate returns to legislative business only on Nov 9.Bloomberglaw
  • On Oct 5 the CFTC published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on retail crypto commodity transactions, while the SEC advances its proposed Regulation Crypto Assets: regulators are moving ahead without legislation.Bakerbotts
  • Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and a Russian diesel deal — this caps oil, but the Houthi attacks outweighed it.Yahoo Finance
  • Polymarket for October: 81.5% odds of touching $85,000, 54.5% for $87,500, 35.5% for $90,000; on the downside 51.5% for $80,000 and 29.5% for $77,500. The market expects the range to widen both ways.Polymarket

Forecast accuracy

Every morning the scenarios are recorded; after the UTC daily close we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
7
Base case came true
71%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
100%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
October 12, 2026$84,017$81,850 (-2.3%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
October 11, 2026$83,078$83,773 (+0.9%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 10, 2026$82,669$82,988 (+0.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 9, 2026$82,374$82,636 (+1.1%) Sideways, 48%Sidewaysyes
October 8, 2026$82,927$81,754 (-1.9%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 7, 2026$84,194$83,322 (-2.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 6, 2026$85,674$85,550 (-0.2%) Sideways, 60%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

October 13, 2026October 12, 2026October 11, 2026October 10, 2026October 9, 2026October 8, 2026October 7, 2026October 6, 2026