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Market cap$2.58T-6.6%BTC dominance59.1%Fear & Greed28BTC$75,574-3.4%ETH$2,222-4.4%BNB$695.32-0.8%XRP$1.18-7.4%SOL$90.78-2.1%TRX$0.3184+0.2%ZEC$1,356+7.3%HYPE$78.52-2.3%XMR$619.52-1.3%DOGE$0.0728-1.7%
This is the archived brief for November 6, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Friday, November 6, 2026

Bitcoin today, November 6, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Nov 6, 8:40 AM ET · price at release $75,650Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:40 AM ET, ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded near $75,650, down 5% over 24 hours and sitting on its $75,552 50-week average after $1.25 billion in liquidations, almost all longs.

  • The October jobs report came in hot — 165,000 jobs vs 59,000 expected, unemployment 4.1% — Bitcoin briefly dipped to $75,200 and recovered, while odds of a December Fed hike rose to 70%.
  • Our 24-hour base case is sideways at $74,000⁠–⁠77,500 (45%): rate fears and ETF outflows weigh, while a 1.6% bounce in Nasdaq-100 futures and flushed leverage support.
Price when the brief was released
$75,650
Nov 6, 8:40 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 6, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$74,000–$77,500
45%
45%
30%
25%
Resistance
$76,800
$78,000
$79,850
Support
$75,200
$73,250
$72,500
Sideways · 45%
$74,000–$77,500

Polymarket's Nov 7 median of $75,978 (IQR $74,606⁠–⁠77,326) and DVOL at 41.3 (±$1,650 daily move) almost match the range. Leverage has been flushed: open interest −5.4%, over $1.1 billion in longs liquidated. The reaction to the hot jobs report was brief — the dip to $75,200 was bought right away — and a thin-liquidity weekend is ahead.

Pullback · 30%
$70,500–$74,000

Price is below every EMA, MACD is negative, ETFs lost $430 million on Thursday, stablecoins are leaving and the Coinbase premium is negative. The strong labor market lifted December hike odds to 70%. Retail is still long (74.5% of accounts): if the AI-stock selloff resumes after the US open, a break of $75,000 opens the way to the $73,243 200-day average and Wintermute's $73,000 target.

Breakout · 25%
$77,500–$80,500

Nasdaq-100 futures +1.6% and Nvidia +3% premarket show equities trying to bounce after the worst day since 2025. All three fractals point up (2-week: 5 of 6 cases, median +4.5%), Fear at 28 is a typical bounce zone, and Polymarket gives a November touch of $80,000 60.5%. Reclaiming the $76,822 EMA200 opens the way to the $78,000 max pain of the next expiries.

What to watch today
  • US market open at 9:30 AM ET: will the Nasdaq-100 bounce (+1.6% in futures) hold or the AI-stock selloff resume
  • Yields and Fed pricing after the hot jobs report: a Dec 9 hike is priced at about 70%
  • Friday spot Bitcoin ETF flows, due after the US close, following the $430 million outflow on Nov 5
  • Daily close at 00:00 UTC (7:00 PM ET): holding the $75,552 50-week average and $75,000
  • Saturday 08:00 UTC (3:00 AM ET): Deribit expiry of 5,512 BTC, max pain $78,000
  • Thin weekend liquidity; weekly close Sunday at 7:00 PM ET
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 8:40 AM ET, 50 minutes ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded near $75,650: down 5% over 24 hours, down 2.2% over 7 days and down 9.2% over 30 days, with a 24-hour range of $75,208⁠–⁠79,865.Binance
  • The $75,208 low is also the 7- and 30-day low: since the overnight slide price never got above $76,500, with no real bounce through Asia and Europe.Binance
  • When the jobs report hit at 8:30 AM ET, Bitcoin dipped from $76,000 to $75,200 and recovered almost all of it within minutes.Cryptopotato
5 more facts
  • Altcoins fell harder: Ether $2,231 (−6.5% in 24 hours), XRP $1.18 (−9.5%), Solana $90.2 (−5.4%), CoinDesk 20 index −6.2%.CoinDesk
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.53 trillion, the whole crypto market $2.57 trillion (−6.6% in 24 hours); BTC dominance 59.2%, ETH 10.6%.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin sits 40% below its $126,080 record (Oct 6, 2025) and is down 26% over a year.CoinGecko
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 26,700 BTC (about $2.04 billion), above normal: sellers were active.Binance
  • The Coinbase premium is slightly negative (−0.05%, about −$37): US buyers were not stepping in ahead of the open.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) is 38: weak, but still some room before oversold (30).Binance
  • MACD at −1,369 is below its −1,058 signal line, histogram −312: downside momentum persists, though it stopped widening today.Binance
  • Price is below the EMA20 ($79,241), EMA50 ($79,834) and EMA200 ($76,822); the EMA200, 1.5% higher, is the nearest resistance.Binance
6 more facts
  • The 50-week simple average is $75,552 and price is sitting right on it; a weekly close below it Sunday night would weaken the picture.Binance
  • The 50-week exponential average (~$78,400) is already lost; the next weekly support is the round $75,000.CoinDesk
  • Wintermute sees downside targets of $73,000 and $68,000 and says reclaiming and holding $80,000 would signal strength.CoinDesk
  • The 200-day average is $73,243, Mayer Multiple 1.03; the 200-week average is $67,615 with price 11.9% above it; Pi Cycle at 0.5 is far from overheated.CoinLab
  • Fractals: the 2-week pattern (−7.1%) matches 6 historical episodes, 5 of them followed by gains, median +4.5%; the 50-day window has a +7% median (4 of 6), the 6-month window +18.9% (6 of 6).CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for Nov 7 (17:00 UTC) is $75,978, interquartile range $74,606⁠–⁠77,326, with 56% betting above the current price: the market expects sideways trading, in line with our base case.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Liquidations across the market over 24 hours were about $1.25⁠–⁠1.27 billion, more than $1.1 billion of it (almost 90%) longs.CoinDesk
  • Binance BTC futures open interest is 94,698 BTC ($7.17 billion): −5.4% in 24 hours and −2.5% over the week, leverage still being cut.Binance
  • Binance funding is 0.0074% per 8 hours (8.1% annualized) vs a 0.0056% 30-day average: even after the crash shorts never started paying longs.Binance
4 more facts
  • Funding elsewhere: Bybit 0.0069%, OKX 0.0071%, Hyperliquid 0.01% per 8 hours, positive everywhere.Bybit
  • Binance long/short account ratio is 2.92 (74.5% long), top traders 2.18: retail is still trying to catch the bottom.Binance
  • Taker buy/sell ratio is 0.97: market sellers are slightly stronger.Binance
  • Our squeeze index is −4 (−23 this morning): the long skew eased after the flush and the components barely agree.CoinLab

4Options

  • This morning's Deribit expiry (08:00 UTC) settled far from its $79,000 max pain: it held no calls at or below $75,000, so most of them expired worthless.Bitcoin.com
  • After the expiry, open interest is 322,857 BTC ($24.4 billion), put/call 0.72.Deribit
  • Saturday's Nov 7 expiry is 5,512 BTC with max pain at $78,000; the next big one is Nov 13: 21,663 BTC, max pain $78,000, put/call 1.30.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The Nov 27 monthly expiry holds 68,805 BTC with max pain at $80,000; December (25th) holds 140,278 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
  • The DVOL volatility index is 41.3 vs 42.0 a week ago: options price a daily move of about ±2.2% (±$1,650).Deribit
  • Nov 27 skew is −5.4: puts are pricier than calls, traders keep hedging against further downside.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $430.2 million on Nov 5: FBTC about $200 million, IBIT $105 million, GBTC $49.9 million.Bloomingbit
  • Nov 4 saw a $74.6 million inflow, after three straight days of outflows: $643 million (Oct 30), $399 million (Nov 2) and $116 million (Nov 3).SoSoValue
  • Bitfinex analysts warned that sustaining a bounce needs real spot demand, and ETF flows aren't showing it yet.CoinDesk
4 more facts
  • ETH ETFs lost $431.5 million in the week from Nov 2, Solana ETFs $71.5 million; only XRP funds were positive ($4.3 million).Kucoin
  • Strategy bought 811 BTC for $65.5 million at $80,846 from Oct 26 to Nov 1; it holds 849,327 BTC at a $75,451 average, so price is at its cost basis.Benzinga
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of supply), worth about $98.7 billion.CoinGecko
  • Miner and crypto stocks fell 15⁠–⁠20% and more than 10% respectively on Nov 5, following AI names lower.CoinDesk

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 28 (Fear), vs 50 a day ago, 30 a week ago and 71 a month ago.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature is 29 out of 100: across eight metrics the market is in the cold half of the cycle.CoinLab
  • MVRV is 1.42 (as of Nov 2), 33rd historical percentile: holders are in moderate profit on average.Coinmetrics
5 more facts
  • Short-term holder cost basis is about $75,774 (as of Oct 30): price is at or slightly below it, so new buyers are roughly flat on average.Bgeometrics
  • Long-term holders cut their holdings by 248,000 BTC in Q3, while spot ETFs added 79,800 BTC over the same period.21shares
  • Large wallets added about 60,000 BTC in October, per a Nov 5 estimate, as price bounced toward $80,000.Invezz
  • Stablecoin supply is $295.5 billion: −2% over the week and −4.6% ($14.1 billion) over 30 days, no fresh money coming into crypto.Defillama
  • Alex Krüger noted that on Nov 5 QQQ fell 6.4% and Bitcoin 5.3%, only the second time the Nasdaq dropped more than 5% while BTC fell less.Bitcoin.com

7Mining

  • Hashrate is about 1,042 EH/s, difficulty 148.4 T.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is around Nov 13 (934 blocks away), estimated at −3.1%; the previous one was +5.5%.mempool.space
  • Fees are minimal: 4 sat/vB for fast confirmation, 3 sat/vB within an hour.mempool.space
4 more facts
  • Block height is 974,810, with 75,190 blocks to the halving (around April 2028).mempool.space
  • Hashprice was $33.26 per PH/s per day on Nov 2; miner revenue keeps shrinking as price falls.Millionminer
  • Bernstein cut price targets on seven miners by up to 54% on Nov 4 over uncertainty about data center construction after the elections.CoinDesk
  • VanEck calls miners oversold: shares of those pivoting to AI data centers fell 35% on average in October.CoinDesk

8Macro

  • The US added 165,000 jobs in October vs 59,000 expected; unemployment fell to 4.1% vs 4.2% expected.CNBC
  • Wages rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year (forecast 0.3% and 2.9%); August was revised up by 53,000 and September by 31,000 to 60,000.CNBC
  • The strong labor data pushed Treasury yields higher and firmed bets on a Fed hike on Dec 9: about 70% on CME FedWatch, 70.5% on Polymarket (65.5% this morning).CNBC
7 more facts
  • US futures were split ahead of the open: Nasdaq-100 +1.6%, S&P 500 +0.2%, Dow −0.9% (−478 points); Nvidia +3% premarket after Thursday's −9%.CNBC
  • Europe sold off: the Stoxx 600 was down 1.7%, on track for its worst session since March; tech held up best (−0.2%).CNBC
  • Asia closed sharply lower: Nikkei −6% to 57,435 and in a bear market, Kospi −6% (−11.7% on the week, with a trading halt intraday), Taiex −4.5%.CNBC
  • On Thursday the Nasdaq fell 5.5% to 24,315 and the S&P 500 4.4% to 7,354, the worst day since April 2025, on fears for AI data center buildouts.CNBC
  • VIX is 27.5 after Thursday's 70% spike: fear in equities remains elevated.Yahoo Finance
  • The 2-year Treasury yield was 4.46% (−12 bp) and the 10-year 4.84% (−6 bp) on Nov 5, before today's strong jobs data.Treasury
  • The dollar index DXY is 102.05 (+0.5%), gold $4,073 (−1%), oil $90.8 (−12.8% over 5 days).Yahoo Finance

9Regulation and events

  • Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, and markets fear pushback on the data center buildout that miners are pivoting to.CoinDesk
  • House Democrats are preparing a broader crypto market structure bill that strengthens the SEC; the new Congress convenes Jan 3, 2027.Decrypt
  • Greece approved a 10% tax on crypto gains and a 15% levy on DeFi income.CoinDesk
3 more facts
  • The Binance hack (since Oct 29) is about $6.3⁠–⁠6.4 billion; Chainalysis attributes it to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, and about $2.8 billion had been frozen by Nov 3.Chainalysis
  • Next Fed decisions: Dec 8⁠–⁠9 (hike at 70.5% on Polymarket) and Jan 26⁠–⁠27 (hold at 73.5%).Polymarket
  • Polymarket for November: a touch of $80,000 is priced at 60.5%, $72,500 at 63.5%, $70,000 at 42.5%.Polymarket

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
39
Base case came true
74%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
95%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 5, 2026 · overnight$80,490$75,765 (-5.9%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-market$79,673$76,040 (-4.5%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
November 4, 2026 · overnight$77,409$80,520 (+4.0%) Sideways, 45%Breakoutno
November 4, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,447$79,662 (+1.7%) Sideways, 47%Breakoutno
November 3, 2026 · overnight$76,719$77,390 (+0.6%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 3, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,676$78,298 (+1.1%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 2, 2026 · overnight$78,370$76,944 (-1.9%) Sideways, 52%Pullbackno
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,200$77,428 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 1, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 16, 2026$82,202$81,616 (-0.8%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 15, 2026$81,108$82,246 (+0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

November 6, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 6, 2026 · overnightNovember 5, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 5, 2026 · overnightNovember 4, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 4, 2026 · overnightNovember 3, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 3, 2026 · overnightNovember 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight