This is the archived brief for October 30, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s

Friday, October 30, 2026

Bitcoin on October 30, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Oct 30, 8:50 AM ET · price at release $77,334Two briefs a day: overnight at 1:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:50 AM ET, ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded at $77,334: down 3.5% in 24 hours and at its lowest since Sep 18.

The trigger was the largest hack in crypto history: late Thursday, about $6.3 billion was drained from Binance hot wallets in 20 minutes; the exchange halted withdrawals, tentatively until Sunday, and set aside $6.34 billion to cover losses, while $1.57 billion of positions were liquidated over 24 hours.
The Q3 Employment Cost Index (ECI) at 8:30 AM ET came in exactly in line (+0.8%) and did not move the market.
The base case for the next 24 hours is a nervous Sideways range of $76,000⁠–⁠79,000 (50%): the EMA200 at $76,530 held the overnight low, and the Polymarket median for Saturday at $77,477 matches the report price.

Price when the brief was released

$77,334

Oct 30, 8:50 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 30, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case

Sideways

$76,000–$79,000

50%

30%

20%

Resistance

$78,100
$80,000
$81,972

Support

$76,500
$75,800
$73,100

Sideways · 50%

$76,000–$79,000

The first shock was absorbed overnight: $1.57 billion in liquidations, Binance open interest −4.8%, the squeeze index at 13 — the market has deleveraged, and the EMA200 at $76,530 held the low. The Polymarket median for Oct 31 at $77,477 and its $76,346⁠–⁠78,816 interquartile range nearly match the report price, with bets giving 63% to a close between $76,000 and $79,000. The October expiry is done, but max pain of $80,000 for Nov 6 and the $78,119 delivery price cap the top of the range; DVOL at 38.7 implies a daily move of only ±$1,570. Binance has set aside $6.34 billion and is covering losses, and Tether and Circle froze $2.4 billion — there is no FTX-style run so far, and the weekend ahead brings thin liquidity, when the market more often stalls than runs.

Pullback · 30%

$73,000–$76,000

The 9:30 AM ET US open comes with Nasdaq-100 futures down 2% to 2.3% after Amazon and Intel — Bitcoin is falling with tech for a second day, and crypto stocks are already −5% in premarket. Binance withdrawals are halted until Sunday: every new report of "points of intrusion" or a revised damage estimate hits BNB and would drag the market, and the 18,270 stolen BTC cannot be frozen. Fear index at 30 after 51, RSI at 34.6, MACD widening lower, 70% of Binance accounts still long and funding positive — there is plenty left to liquidate. A break of $76,500 (EMA200) opens $75,800 — the short-term holder cost basis and the 50-week average at $75,757 — below which the $74,000 put for Nov 13 and the 200-day simple average at $73,111 become magnets; Polymarket gives 17% to a price below $76,000 by Saturday.

Breakout · 20%

$79,000–$81,500

If Binance confirms a timeline for resuming withdrawals before the weekend and shows the $6.34 billion is already on its balance sheet, the market gets a reason to close the gap: the overnight rebound from $76,400 to $78,700 showed buyers at the EMA200, while the 10-year yield's drop toward 4.90% and a weak dollar (DXY 101.67, a third day lower) ease rate pressure. On the eve of the hack, whales bought $903 million, exchange outflows hit a five-week high, and HYPE and DEX volumes are rising — liquidity is not leaving crypto, it is rotating. With the expiry over, the pin at $78,000 is gone, and short covering of puts bought overnight could lift the price to the EMA50 at $80,587; a close above $81,500 would require Nasdaq to reverse at the open.

What to watch today

9:30 AM ET — US market open, with Nasdaq-100 futures down 2% to 2.3% after Amazon and Intel earnings
9:45 AM ET — Chicago PMI; 10:00 AM ET — Michigan (final); 12:00 PM and 12:30 PM ET — Daly and Musalem speak, Barkin also speaks
Any Binance statement: a timeline for resuming withdrawals (target — Sunday, Nov 1), new "points of intrusion," or a damage revision above $6.3 billion
Movement of the ~18,270 stolen BTC to exchanges or through mixers — a supply overhang that cannot be frozen
Friday evening ET — spot BTC ETF flows for Oct 30, the first day after the hack
8:00 PM ET Friday — daily and monthly candle close; 12:00 PM ET Saturday — Polymarket resolves bets on the $76,000 and $78,000 levels

This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

As of 8:50 AM ET, 40 minutes before the opening bell, Bitcoin traded at $77,334: down 3.5% in 24 hours, 4.7% on the week and 7.5% on the month — its lowest since Sep 18.Binance
The 24-hour range was $76,500⁠–⁠81,972: the high printed before the Binance hack late Thursday, the low came at 10:07 PM ET Oct 29; the overnight rebound to $78,700 faded back to $77,300 by the European midday.Binance
The Deribit October expiry delivery (settlement) price at 4:00 AM ET was $78,119, versus $79,779 a day earlier and $80,868 on Wednesday — three straight daily settlements below the prior one.Deribit

6 more facts

Bitcoin's market cap stands at $1.56 trillion with 59.8% dominance; the total crypto market lost 6.4% in 24 hours to $2.60 trillion — altcoins fell almost twice as fast as Bitcoin.CoinGecko
ETH −4% to ~$2,230 (low $2,170), SOL −4%, BNB −6% to ~$700 — the steepest drop among the majors on tripled volume; doubts about the token of the exchange that got hacked are only natural.CoinDesk
Crypto stocks in US premarket: Coinbase −5.2%, Strategy −5.1%, Robinhood −5.7%, Galaxy Digital about −5% — equities are pricing in the hack in lockstep with coins.Investing.com
The Coinbase premium to Binance is −0.04% (−$33 in dollar terms): US buyers are in no rush to buy the dip ahead of the open.Coinbase
Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 34,523 BTC ($2.72 billion); market-wide futures volume jumped 74% to $346 billion — the panic played out in derivatives, not spot.CoinDesk
The previous report (Oct 29, price $80,389) set a base case of Sideways $79,000⁠–⁠81,700 at 48%; the day closed at $78,280, so Pullback (32%) played out. Across 27 scored reports, the close landed in the base-case range 85% of the time.CoinLab

2Technical analysis

Daily RSI(14) is at 34.6 and nearing the oversold 30 zone; at the peak of the September rally it was above 70.Binance
MACD at −885 versus a −402 signal line, with the histogram at −483 and widening lower — selling momentum is building, with no reversal signal.Binance
Price has dropped below all short-term averages: the EMA20 at $81,056 and EMA50 at $80,587 have turned into resistance; the EMA200 at $76,530 coincided with the $76,500 daily low and is holding the market for now.Binance

6 more facts

The Sep 13 "golden cross" is formally intact, with the EMA50 $4,000 above the EMA200, but a daily close below $76,500 would turn the picture bearish.Binance
Below the EMA200, the next supports are the 50-week average at $75,757 and the short-term holder cost basis at $75,800 (as of Oct 23), then the 111-day at $74,805 and the 200-day simple average at $73,111.Bitcoin-data
Mayer Multiple at 1.06 (52nd historical percentile), price 14.7% above the 200-week average of $67,555, Pi-Cycle at 0.49 — the cycle is not overheated, and the drawdown is starting from mid-range.CoinLab
Fractals (as of Oct 29): the two-week window finds 6 similar historical stretches, 4 of 6 kept rising, with a median of +0.5% over the next two weeks; the 50-day window's median is −3.5%, the six-month window's +6.9%.CoinLab
Polymarket cross-check: the median bet for the Oct 31 price is $77,477 (interquartile range $76,346⁠–⁠78,816), above $78,000 at 38%, above $80,000 at 5.5%, below $76,000 at 17%; our $76,000⁠–⁠79,000 base-case range lines up.Polymarket
CoinLab "market temperature" is 30 out of 100 (31 yesterday, 42 on Oct 6): cold zone, with components Mayer 26, 200WMA 10, fear 30, RSI 24.CoinLab

3Derivatives

Liquidations over 24 hours totaled $1.57 billion, four times the norm: BTC $522 million, ETH $361 million; morning data put 86⁠–⁠87% of the volume on longs.CoinDesk
In the single hour after the first reports of the hack (5:00⁠–⁠6:00 PM ET Oct 29), $628 million was wiped out, $607 million of it longs — the biggest hourly spike of the day.Beincrypto
Binance BTC futures open interest is $7.40 billion (95,599 BTC), −4.8% on the day and −4.8% on the week: the market is deleveraging, not building shorts.Binance

4 more facts

Aggregate futures OI across the market fell 3% to $136.3 billion; the biggest exits were in SOL (−13%) and NEAR (−12%), while HYPE OI rose 28%.CoinDesk
Funding remains positive: Binance at 0.0097% per 8 hours, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid at 0.01% (about 11% annualized) — longs are still paying shorts even after the drop.Binance
70.3% of Binance accounts are long (2.37:1), top traders 1.92:1, taker buy/sell at 0.925 — the crowd is holding longs while market orders are selling; CVD is negative for most large coins.Binance
The CoinLab squeeze index is at 13 out of 100: no shorts have been built and OI is falling, so there is little fuel for a sharp short squeeze higher.CoinLab

4Options

The Deribit October expiry (about 134,000 BTC, ~$10.5 billion) settled at 4:00 AM ET at $78,119 — $119 above the $78,000 max pain; after it, BTC options open interest stands at 287,082 BTC ($22.2 billion).Deribit
Put/call across total OI is 0.70, but the nearest expiries skew to puts: Oct 31 (7,121 BTC) at 1.24, Nov 1 at 3.09, Nov 13 at 1.98. The next big one is Nov 6: 16,599 BTC, max pain $80,000, put/call 0.56.Deribit
Five of the six most-traded BTC options over 24 hours were puts struck below spot; the volume leader was the $74,000 put expiring Nov 13.CoinDesk

4 more facts

25-delta skew rose across all tenors; according to Jean-David Pequignot of Deribit, after the break below $80,000 short-dated puts became more than 10 vol points pricier than calls — demand for protection, not for upside bets.CoinDesk
The Nov 27 volatility smile (8:45 AM ET): the $70,000 put at 41.8% IV, the $86,000 call at 36.5% — a 5-point premium for downside protection versus a symmetric smile a week ago.Deribit
DVOL at 38.7 versus 38.0 a week ago: implied volatility spiked during the Asian session, but most of the gain has faded; the expected daily move is about ±2% (±$1,570).Deribit
The largest block is the Dec 25 expiry: 135,951 BTC, max pain $75,000, put/call 0.66; the Nov 27 expiry holds 46,336 BTC with max pain at $80,000.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

Spot BTC ETFs took in $17 million on Oct 29 — a fourth straight day of inflows, but that was before the hack; flows for Oct 30, the first day after it, will be out this evening ET.CoinDesk
Cumulative net inflows into spot BTC ETFs since launch stand at $57.62 billion, with $104.27 billion in assets under management (as of Oct 29); over 30 days the funds lost $255 million.SoSoValue
Strategy neither bought Bitcoin nor sold shares via its ATM in the week of Oct 19⁠–⁠25: 848,517 BTC at an average $75,446 — the company's cushion over its average purchase price has shrunk to 2.6%.SEC

4 more facts

Corporate treasuries: 181 companies hold 1,312,578 BTC ($101.6 billion, 6.25% of supply); after Strategy come Metaplanet with 44,000, Twenty One Capital with 43,514 and Strive with 43,000 BTC.CoinGecko
Market makers disclosed their Binance exposure: Wintermute at less than 20% of its own capital, GSR at less than 5%; no systemic liquidity crisis is visible yet.Cointelegraph
Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered warned that, in his view, the negative price move is not over yet, and that the hack could accelerate the shift of volume to decentralized exchanges.Investing.com
Stablecoins: $301.4 billion in circulation, −1.2% on the week and −$6.6 billion over 30 days — the "dry powder" is shrinking; on top of that, Tether froze $1.567 billion USDT and Circle more than $800 million USDC of the stolen funds.Defillama

6Sentiment and on-chain

The Fear & Greed Index is at 30 ("fear"), versus 51 a day earlier and 71 a month ago; the one-year average is 31 and the year's low was 5 — capitulation is still far off.alternative.me
The CoinMarketCap index fell to 36 from 43, and the Altcoin Season Index to 45 from 54: money is leaving alts faster than Bitcoin.CoinDesk
Chainalysis put the stolen amount at $5.91 billion at the time of the theft and flagged previously unseen laundering patterns — thousands of automated transactions; TRM Labs and Elliptic point with high confidence to North Korea's TraderTraitor.Cointelegraph

4 more facts

Arkham estimates about $1.44 billion of the loot is in Bitcoin (roughly 18,270 BTC): unlike stablecoins, these coins cannot be frozen, and selling them during laundering is an overhang on the market for weeks.Bitcoinmagazine
On the eve of the hack (Oct 29): 14,942 BTC left exchanges — a five-week high per Santiment; one whale bought $903 million, two others moved $200 million onto exchanges; Hyperliquid whales flipped net short for the first time since March, according to Glassnode.Kucoin
The short-term holder cost basis is $75,800 (as of Oct 23): the market trades just $1,600 above it; dropping below has historically intensified selling by this cohort.Bitcoin-data
Hyperliquid has been a beneficiary of the panic: HYPE +15% on the day, open interest +28%, volume ×8 — some traders are moving positions off centralized exchanges.CoinDesk

7Mining

Hashrate is 1,049 EH/s on a 7-day average, difficulty 148.36 T after a +5.54% adjustment on Oct 29; the next one is due around Nov 13 and, 4.7% into the epoch, is tracking −3.4%.mempool.space
Fees: 3 sat/vB for fast confirmation and 1 sat/vB within an hour — the mempool is empty even on a panic day: the selloff ran through exchanges and derivatives, not on-chain.mempool.space
Hashprice at a Bitcoin price around $77,400 is roughly $33 per PH/s per day, below the estimated $35 breakeven for the average public miner; in Q1 2026, public miners sold a record 32,000 BTC.CryptoSlate

3 more facts

Miner stocks in premarket: Riot −5.3%, Hut 8 −5.7%, Cipher −5.3%, MARA and CleanSpark about −5% — the sector is falling with the coin.Investing.com
MARA Holdings holds 35,577 BTC — fifth among public companies; with hashprice below breakeven, miners' treasury stacks are a source of potential supply.CoinGecko
Block height is 973,822, with 76,178 blocks to the halving — targeting Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space

8Macro

The Q3 Employment Cost Index (ECI) (8:30 AM ET): +0.8% q/q, exactly in line (0.9% the prior quarter), wages +0.7%, benefits +0.9%, +3.4% y/y — wage pressure is not accelerating, but the release offered no case against a December Fed hike; Bitcoin stayed in a $77,250⁠–⁠77,500 range between 8:30 and 8:45 AM ET.Bls
The Fed held rates at 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10⁠–⁠2 vote: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a 25 bp hike; the statement said "inflation remains elevated" and the economy is expanding "at a solid pace.".Federal Reserve
CME FedWatch puts 75⁠–⁠80% odds on a 25 bp hike on Dec 9 (79.6% this morning versus 84.2% a day earlier); Polymarket has 71.5% for +25 bp and 24.5% for a pause, and 70.5% for a hold in January.CME FedWatch

10 more facts

September PCE (Oct 29): 3.6% y/y versus 3.4% in August, core 3.1%; Q3 GDP +3.4% versus 3.2% expected, with the savings rate down to 3.8% — a strong economy and rising inflation make the case for a hike.Foxbusiness
Christopher Waller (Fed, Oct 8): further hikes are needed, but "not necessarily at every meeting"; 16 of 18 participants in the September projections expect at least one more hike by the end of 2026.Kitco
Today, the first day after the blackout, Barkin, Daly (12:00 PM ET) and Musalem (12:30 PM ET) speak; ING says the market has already priced in a December hike, and few surprises are expected from the speeches.FXStreet
Treasury yields: the 10-year at 4.98% at the Oct 29 close (−7 bp), the 2-year at 4.61% (−6 bp); on Friday morning the 10-year slipped toward 4.90% — money is fleeing tech for bonds.Treasury
Nasdaq fell 1.38% on Thursday to 26,184.72, the S&P 500 −0.30% to 7,720.39, VIX 18.73 (+8.9%); in Friday premarket Nasdaq-100 futures are −2% to −2.3%, S&P 500 −0.9%, Dow −0.05%.FXStreet
The culprits behind the selloff: Amazon −7% in premarket after a second straight quarter of negative free cash flow and a $220 billion capex plan; Intel −25% on an EPS guide of 25 cents versus 43 cents expected.CNBC
The dollar index DXY at 101.67 (−0.36%, a third day lower); gold at $3,956⁠–⁠3,974 (−1.4% to −1.6%), near its $3,941 low of the year — even safe havens are being sold for cash.Yahoo Finance
WTI crude at $104 (+2%), a five-month high after new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent around $115; on Oct 29 prices dipped on a report that JD Vance was trying to restart talks with Iran.FXStreet
The Bank of Japan held its rate at 1.25% on Oct 30 and said underlying inflation has reached 2% — the road to a December hike is open, USD/JPY at 157.45; the ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50% on Oct 29.Atfxcapital
Calendar: today Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM ET, Michigan (final) at 10:00 AM ET; next week ISM on Nov 2, US midterm elections and JOLTS on Nov 3, ISM services on Nov 4, jobless claims on Nov 5, and the October jobs report on Nov 6 at 8:30 AM ET.Investrade

9Regulation and events

Hack timeline: at 4:05 PM ET Oct 29, outflows began from Binance hot wallets — about $6.3 billion in 20 minutes across ten networks; at 6:32 PM ET Binance halted withdrawals, and at 10:21 PM ET it blamed a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop and put the damage at $6.3 billion.Cointelegraph
Binance has set aside more than $6.34 billion of its own funds: about $5 billion is already in the right tokens, with the rest being bought via OTC and exchanges (Yi He); Richard Teng pledged to cover losses from SAFU and company funds, and no sign of a private key leak has been found.Cointelegraph
Withdrawals remain halted: at 3:37 AM ET Binance found "additional points of intrusion" and promised to resume them in about 45 hours — targeting early Sunday, Nov 1; deposits are working. This is the main risk for the weekend.Cointelegraph

5 more facts

About $3 billion has been frozen: Tether $1.567 billion USDT, Circle more than $800 million USDC, World Liberty $27 million USD1, the Arbitrum Security Council $30.5 million, Ripple — RLUSD, First Digital — FDUSD; Aave froze markets on 16 networks after the attacker borrowed $44.6 million in ETH against stolen USDT.Cointelegraph
Attribution: TRM Labs and Elliptic link the attack to North Korea's TraderTraitor — the group behind the Bybit (February 2025) and Bitget hacks; some funds moved through THORChain. Binance has not confirmed this; there had been no statements from the SEC, the US Treasury or Congress as of 8:50 AM ET.Axios
US midterm elections on Nov 3: Polymarket gives Democrats 93.5% to win control of the House and 69.5% for the Senate ($45 million in bets); a change in majority will shape the fate of the crypto market structure bill.Polymarket
Market structure bill: the Senate Agriculture Committee approved its version 12⁠–⁠11 back in January, and the Banking Committee is still working on its draft; no full Senate vote has been scheduled before the elections.Blockworks
Key dates: 8:00 PM ET Friday — the daily and monthly candle close (October is tracking −7%); 12:00 PM ET Saturday — Polymarket resolves its Oct 31 bets; Sunday — expected resumption of Binance withdrawals; Nov 2 after the US close — Apple and Palantir earnings.CoinLab

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast

Base case came true

83%

the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range

At least one scenario right

100%

the close landed inside one of the three ranges

Day	Morning price	Close	Base case	Came true	Hit
October 30, 2026 · overnight	$78,686	$77,193 (-1.4%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$77,334	$77,619 (+0.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 29, 2026 · overnight	$80,389	$78,280 (-2.5%)	Sideways, 48%	Pullback	no
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,118	$77,382 (-3.5%)	Sideways, 47%	Pullback	no
October 28, 2026 · overnight	$80,947	$80,256 (-0.9%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,831	$80,170 (-1.4%)	Sideways, 52%	Sideways	yes
October 27, 2026 · overnight	$79,789	$80,994 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · overnight	$80,172	$79,759 (-0.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,516	$79,910 (-0.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · overnight	$80,824	$80,134 (-1.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,350	$80,416 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,776	$80,581 (+0.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 23, 2026	$81,637	$81,189 (-0.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 22, 2026	$82,932	$81,416 (-3.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 21, 2026	$82,892	$84,093 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 20, 2026	$81,990	$83,028 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 19, 2026	$82,886	$81,938 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 18, 2026	$81,746	$82,116 (+0.8%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 17, 2026	$81,615	$81,491 (-0.1%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 16, 2026	$82,202	$81,616 (-0.8%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 15, 2026	$81,108	$82,246 (+0.7%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 14, 2026	$83,610	$81,682 (-1.8%)	Sideways, 45%	Pullback	no
October 13, 2026	$83,728	$83,169 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 12, 2026	$84,017	$81,850 (-2.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Pullback	no
October 11, 2026	$83,078	$83,773 (+0.9%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 10, 2026	$82,669	$82,988 (+0.4%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 9, 2026	$82,374	$82,636 (+1.1%)	Sideways, 48%	Sideways	yes
October 8, 2026	$82,927	$81,754 (-1.9%)	Sideways, 47%	Pullback	no
October 7, 2026	$84,194	$83,322 (-2.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 6, 2026	$85,674	$85,550 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 60%	Sideways	yes

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