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Market cap$2.62T-2.1%BTC dominance59.3%Fear & Greed37BTC$77,265-0.8%ETH$2,266+0.0%BNB$701.20-1.3%XRP$1.25-0.2%SOL$93.32-1.4%TRX$0.3188+2.0%HYPE$85.50-2.9%ZEC$1,243+0.7%DOGE$0.0749-0.9%XMR$602.19+0.5%
This is the archived brief for November 2, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Monday, November 2, 2026

Bitcoin today, November 2, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Nov 2, 8:50 AM ET · price at release $78,200Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:45 AM ET, ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded at $78,200, up 0.3% in 24 hours within a $77,603⁠–⁠78,878 range, after dip buyers absorbed a slide toward $77,600 during the European session.

  • No US data came out at 8:30 AM ET; this morning Strategy reported buying 811 BTC for $65.5 million, and Binance said net outflows since withdrawals reopened reached $4.72 billion (2.8% of assets) and are easing.
  • Base case for the next 24 hours is sideways at $76,800⁠–⁠79,500 (50%): leverage has been flushed and the Polymarket median for Tuesday, $78,225, matches the report price; the key events are the ISM at 10:00 AM ET with Nasdaq futures up 0.8%, and Tuesday's midterm elections.
Price when the brief was released
$78,200
Nov 2, 8:50 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 2, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$76,800–$79,500
50%
50%
28%
22%
Resistance
$78,880
$80,250
$81,970
Support
$76,650
$75,830
$75,000
Sideways · 50%
$76,800–$79,500

Leverage is flushed: Binance open interest is down 1% in 24 hours, funding sits at the 0.01% baseline, and Binance liquidations over the past day totaled only about $14 million. The Polymarket median for Tuesday ($78,225) and its interquartile range ($76,744⁠–⁠79,475) nearly match the band, and DVOL at 39.1 implies a ±$1,600 move. Max pain at $78,000 on tomorrow's expiry anchors price near current levels, while the big events — Tuesday's midterms and Friday's jobs report — have, judging by the Nov 4 volatility bump, been pushed out by the market. Strategy's 811 BTC buy and easing Binance outflows give no reason for panic and no fuel for a rally.

Pullback · 28%
$74,800–$76,800

Price already dipped to $77,600 during the European session, RSI is below 40, MACD is diverging lower again, and the Coinbase premium is negative — there is no US demand ahead of the open. Strategy bought only 811 BTC and parked $98.5 million in cash, ETFs lost $643 million on Friday and stablecoins keep shrinking. With 70% of Binance accounts long, there is plenty to liquidate. If the 10:00 AM ET ISM comes in hot and lifts hike expectations, or Apple disappoints, a break of the $76,650 200-day EMA opens the $75,830 short-term holder cost basis, the $75,590 50-week average and the $76,326 post-hack low.

Breakout · 22%
$79,500–$82,000

Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.8% ahead of the open, oil is down 4% on hopes of an Iran deal, and yields have eased from their October peaks — if the tech rebound continues after the 9:30 AM ET open, bitcoin should follow. Binance outflows are stabilizing, and markets have historically rallied after midterms. Shorts are clustered above the $78,880 daily high and lead on our squeeze index, and $79,000 max pain on the Nov 6 expiry with a 0.34 put/call pulls higher; beyond that, the 20/50-day EMA band near $80,250 is where a rally would likely stall.

What to watch today
  • US market open — today at 9:30 AM ET
  • October ISM manufacturing index — 10:00 AM ET (forecast 54.7)
  • Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks — 11:15 AM ET
  • Spot bitcoin ETF flows for Monday — this evening ET
  • Apple earnings — after the 4:00 PM ET close
  • Daily candle close — 7:00 PM ET (00:00 UTC)
  • Deribit expiry of 2,115 BTC (max pain $78,000) — Tuesday 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC)
  • US midterm elections — Tuesday, Nov 3; Binance flows and any new moves from the hacker's addresses
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 8:45 AM ET, ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded at $78,200: up 0.3% in 24 hours, down 2.4% on the week and 7.7% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $77,603⁠–⁠78,878.Binance
  • During the European session the price slid from the overnight high of $78,878 toward $77,600, but climbed back above $78,000 ahead of the US open: buyers defended the post-hack bounce.Binance
  • Spot BTC/USDT volume on Binance over 24 hours was 8,867 BTC (about $690 million), up from 7,869 BTC overnight: activity is building into the US open but remains well below Friday's panic.Binance
4 more facts
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.57 trillion with 59.9% dominance; the total crypto market is $2.59 trillion. Price sits 38.1% below the $126,080 all-time high (Oct 6, 2025) and is down 29.9% year over year.CoinGecko
  • Altcoins as of 7:30 AM ET: ETH $2,295 (+1.3% in 24 hours), XRP $1.26 (+0.7%), SOL $94.6 (−0.3%), HYPE $86.2 (−1.9%) — ether is again slightly stronger than bitcoin, but there is still no rebound leader.CoinDesk
  • The Coinbase premium to Binance is −0.04% ($78,033 vs $78,063 adjusted for USDT): US spot buyers still haven't shown up ahead of the open; the bid is coming from offshore venues.Coinbase
  • The Oct 30 post-hack low of $76,326 is still holding as the bottom: price has recovered 2.5% in three days, but the weekly high of $81,971 is 4.8% above.Binance

2Technical analysis

  • The daily RSI(14) is 38.9 vs 39.5 overnight: the indicator is hovering near the lower third of its range, with no momentum for a rally yet.Binance
  • MACD at −1,135 is below its signal line at −743, with the histogram at −392 vs −381 overnight: the fading of downside momentum stalled during the day.Binance
  • The 20-day EMA ($80,227) and 50-day EMA ($80,278) have merged into a band near $80,250 — the key resistance 2.6% above price; the 200-day EMA at $76,654 is the nearest major support, and the Sept 14 golden cross remains intact.Binance
6 more facts
  • Support below the 200-day EMA is dense: short-term holder cost basis $75,834 (as of Oct 26), 50-week average $75,592, 111-day average $75,321, 200-day SMA $73,197; the 200-week average at $67,472 is 13.7% below price.Coinmetrics
  • Bitcoin has now closed above its 50-week moving average for seven straight weeks, Galaxy research head Alex Thorn pointed out on Monday.CoinDesk
  • The Mayer Multiple is 1.06 (52nd historical percentile) and Pi Cycle is 0.50 against an overheating signal at 1.0: cycle metrics put the market mid-range.CoinLab
  • Fractals as of Nov 2: for the two-week stretch (−5.1%), 2 of 6 similar historical segments continued higher, with a median −4.0% over the next two weeks; for the 50-day window 4 of 6 rose (median +11.8%), for the six-month window all 6 did (median +20.9%).CoinLab
  • Polymarket for noon ET Tuesday: median $78,225, interquartile range $76,744⁠–⁠79,475, a 50.5% chance of trading above the current price. Our base-case sideways range of $76,800⁠–⁠79,500 nearly matches that band.Polymarket
  • Polymarket November odds: touching $80,000 — 80.5% (83.5% overnight), $85,000 — 40.5%; to the downside, $75,000 — 67.5%, $72,500 — 48.5%, $70,000 — 31.5%. The market expects a wide range with no trend.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Open interest in Binance BTC/USDT perpetuals is 96,195 BTC ($7.52 billion), down 1.0% in 24 hours and 1.1% on the week: no new leverage is entering the market.Binance
  • Market-wide futures open interest was roughly flat over 24 hours at about $58 billion for bitcoin and $23.6 billion for ether — traders are hedging existing positions rather than opening new ones.CoinDesk
  • 8-hour funding rose back to baseline: Binance 0.01%, Bybit 0.0095%, OKX 0.0061%, Hyperliquid 0.01%; the 30-day Binance average is 0.0046%. Longs are paying shorts again, but without overheating.Bybit
4 more facts
  • The Binance long/short account ratio is 2.30 (70% long), 1.67 among top traders, and takers are buying slightly harder (1.05): the crowd is holding longs despite the slide.Binance
  • Our Binance BTC liquidation feed over 24 hours: $9.3 million in shorts vs $5.1 million in longs — the overnight bounce to $78,900 flushed sellers, while the daytime dip to $77,600 barely touched longs.CoinLab
  • The CoinLab squeeze index is +26, up from 0 overnight — a "shorts lean" reading on the index scale, with 42% component agreement; the futures mark price of $78,175 is just below the $78,192 index.CoinLab
  • After Friday's Binance hack, more than $1.3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, according to TRM Labs — the market has traded with noticeably less leverage since.Bnnbloomberg

4Options

  • Deribit BTC options open interest is 302,778 BTC ($23.5 billion) with a put/call ratio of 0.68: calls outnumber puts roughly 1.5 to 1.Deribit
  • DVOL is 39.1, up from 38.5 overnight and 38.8 a week ago: the market is pricing a daily move of about ±2%, or ±$1,600 from the report price.Deribit
  • The volatility curve has a bump: implied volatility on the Nov 4 expiry is about 43%, vs about 36% for later tenors — options traders are paying for protection on the day after the US midterms.CoinDesk
3 more facts
  • Near-term puts are about 5 points pricier than calls, and November skew is −5.1 vs −4.3 overnight: demand for downside protection rose during the day.CoinDesk
  • Tomorrow at 08:00 UTC (3:00 AM ET), 2,115 BTC expire with max pain at $78,000 and a put/call of 1.16 — the report price is just above that level, so expiry pressure is minimal.Deribit
  • The week's main expiry is Nov 6: 27,670 BTC, max pain $79,000, put/call 0.34; the monthly on Nov 27 is 51,437 BTC (max pain $80,000), the quarterly on Dec 25 is 137,155 BTC (max pain $75,000).Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • Strategy bought 811 BTC for $65.5 million at an average $80,846 between Oct 26 and Nov 1, funded by MSTR share sales; it now holds 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451.SEC
  • The buy was modest: of $164 million raised from share sales, Strategy put $98.5 million into its USD reserve and spent another $208.2 million buying back STRC preferred shares.SEC
  • Spot bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3 million on Oct 30, the largest daily outflow since June 25: IBIT −$233.7 million, FBTC −$201.0 million, ARKB −$129.6 million, GBTC −$53.3 million. Monday's data comes out this evening.Cryptopolitan
4 more facts
  • Spot bitcoin ETF assets stand at $98.14 billion (6.34% of bitcoin's market cap), with cumulative inflows since launch of about $57 billion; October net outflows came to $515 million.Tokenpost
  • Ether ETFs lost $155.9 million on Oct 30 and $431.5 million for the week — outflows from ether funds are running longer and deeper than from bitcoin funds.The Block
  • 181 public companies hold 1,312,578 BTC ($101.8 billion, 6.25% of supply): Strategy, Metaplanet 44,000, Twenty One Capital 43,514, Strive 43,000, MARA 35,577.CoinGecko
  • Stablecoin market cap is $299.5 billion: down 1.5% on the week and 3.0% (−$9.2 billion) over 30 days, and still shrinking after the Binance hack — no new dollars are entering the market.Defillama

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 37 ("fear"), vs 34 yesterday, 50 a week ago and 67 a month ago; the one-year average is 31.alternative.me
  • Binance reported net outflows of $4.72 billion since withdrawals reopened on Sunday, against $2.7 billion of inflows — about 2.8% of platform assets; the exchange says withdrawals are declining "after an initial spike.".Bnnbloomberg
  • For comparison: after FTX collapsed in 2022, about $6 billion left Binance in 72 hours, and USDC saw about $7 billion of outflows in the week after SVB failed. The current outflow is smaller than both.Bnnbloomberg
5 more facts
  • On Monday Binance restored BTC withdrawals on the bitcoin network, ether, some dollar stablecoins and USD cash; most other coins remain partially suspended.Bnnbloomberg
  • Circle has frozen more than $1.1 billion of hack-linked USDC; Binance is covering losses from its own funds — $6 billion from its treasury, insurance fund and breach reserves.Bnnbloomberg
  • MVRV as of Nov 1 is 1.45 (35th historical percentile): the average holder is up 45%, so there are few forced sellers at a loss.Coinmetrics
  • The CoinLab market temperature is 31 out of 100: MVRV, Mayer, the 200-week average, Pi Cycle and RSI are in the cold zone, with distance from the all-time high the warmest component.CoinLab
  • Large holders lifted their balances to 3.03 million BTC in mid-October, per CryptoQuant — the most since November 2025 (excluding exchange and pool addresses).Bitcoin.com

7Mining

  • Hashrate is 1,055 EH/s and difficulty 148.36 T: network capacity is holding near a record despite October's price drop.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is expected around Nov 12, in 1,482 blocks; 26% into the epoch it is tracking −1.2%.mempool.space
  • The Oct 29 adjustment added 5.54%: combined with an 8% price drop over the month, miner revenue per terahash has fallen noticeably.mempool.space
3 more facts
  • Fees are 3 sat/vB for fast confirmation and 1 sat/vB within an hour: the mempool is nearly empty even amid heavy Binance withdrawals.mempool.space
  • Block height is 974,262, with 75,738 blocks to the halving — around Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space
  • MARA holds 35,577 BTC, fifth among public companies; if profitability keeps falling, miner selling would be the first sign of stress.CoinGecko

8Macro

  • No US data came out at 8:30 AM ET today: the day's key number is the October ISM manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET, forecast at 54.7 vs 54.5, with prices paid seen at 77 vs 77.9.Trading Economics
  • As of 5:40 AM ET, Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.84%, S&P 500 futures 0.51% and Dow futures 0.55%: markets are looking for a tech rebound after Friday's selloff.Tipranks
  • Oil is falling on hopes of a US–Iran deal after two days of Qatar-mediated talks: Brent −4.3% to $108.7, WTI −4.2% to $99.8.Tipranks
7 more facts
  • Europe opened higher on strong factory data — UK manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in over two years; in Asia, Shanghai rose 1.1% and the Hang Seng 0.4%, while the Nikkei slipped 0.3%.Tipranks
  • Friday on Wall Street: S&P 500 at 7,580 (−1.8%), Nasdaq at 25,437 (−2.9%), VIX at 19.4; October was the Nasdaq's worst month since March 2025 — bitcoin has tracked tech for two months.Yahoo Finance
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.91% this morning, the 2-year 4.59% and the 30-year 5.28%; DXY is 101.6 (−0.3% on the day), gold $3,908 (+0.2%).CoinDesk
  • The Fed held rates at 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% on Oct 28 with two dissents in favor of a hike (Hammack and Cook); Polymarket puts a 25 bp hike on Dec 8⁠–⁠9 at 70.5% and a hold at 27.5%.Polymarket
  • For January 2027, Polymarket gives 68.5% to a hold and 25.5% to another hike — the market expects one more tightening, not a series.Polymarket
  • Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks today at 11:15 AM ET; Apple reports after the close (consensus EPS $2 on revenue of $113 billion).Newsquawk
  • Later this week: Hammack speaks Thursday, Williams, Musalem and Bowman on Friday; the October jobs report is due Friday at 8:30 AM ET.Fattail

9Regulation and events

  • Tuesday, Nov 3, brings the US midterm elections: the entire House and 35 Senate seats are up; historically bitcoin and the S&P 500 have gained after midterms.CoinDesk
  • The FBI attributed the $6.3 billion Binance hack to North Korea's TraderTraitor group; per TRM Labs, North Korea-linked hackers have stolen $7.4 billion in 2026 so far.Bnnbloomberg
  • BTCPay Server told users on Sunday to switch off their servers after reports of drained hot wallets — the second security incident of the weekend.CoinDesk
4 more facts
  • China's Communist Party called for a crackdown on crypto-linked corruption; XRP Ledger is preparing a fix for a flaw that could let stablecoin partners mint extra tokens.CoinDesk
  • MSCI decides on Nov 11 whether to keep Strategy in its indexes: an exclusion could force index funds to sell MSTR shares.Glassnode
  • The CLARITY market structure bill is stuck in the Senate; the SEC is taking comments on crypto custody rules until Dec 7, and the CFTC on its leveraged retail trading request until Dec 14.Bakerbotts
  • Calendar: today 9:30 AM ET — US open, 10:00 — ISM, 11:15 — Goolsbee, after the close — Apple; Tuesday 3:00 AM ET — expiry of 2,115 BTC, plus the midterms; Nov 6 — expiry of 27,670 BTC and the jobs report.Deribit

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
31
Base case came true
84%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
100%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 1, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 16, 2026$82,202$81,616 (-0.8%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 15, 2026$81,108$82,246 (+0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 14, 2026$83,610$81,682 (-1.8%) Sideways, 45%Pullbackno
October 13, 2026$83,728$83,169 (+1.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 12, 2026$84,017$81,850 (-2.3%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
October 11, 2026$83,078$83,773 (+0.9%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 10, 2026$82,669$82,988 (+0.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 9, 2026$82,374$82,636 (+1.1%) Sideways, 48%Sidewaysyes
October 8, 2026$82,927$81,754 (-1.9%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 7, 2026$84,194$83,322 (-2.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight