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Market cap$2.69T-3.0%BTC dominance60.1%Fear & Greed54BTC$80,498+1.4%ETH$2,337+1.9%BNB$740.60+3.1%XRP$1.30+2.9%SOL$101.38+2.4%TRX$0.3286+0.0%ZEC$1,213+7.9%HYPE$76.89+3.1%DOGE$0.0771+2.7%XMR$606.77+2.8%
This is the archived brief for October 25, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Sunday, October 25, 2026

Bitcoin on October 25, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Oct 25, 1:44 AM ET · price at release $80,824Two briefs a day: overnight at 1:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 1:30 AM ET Sunday, Bitcoin traded at $80,824, roughly flat on the day (+0.1%) after a Saturday-evening slide to $79,221, its lowest in more than a month, flushed about $689 million of longs.

  • Base case for the next 24 hours: sideways in $80,000⁠–⁠82,000 as Asia and US markets stay shut, weekend options with max pain at $81,000⁠–⁠81,500 pull toward the middle and Polymarket's Monday median sits at $80,922.
  • The main risk is Brent near $116.70 and threats of new US strikes on Iran ahead of the Oct 27⁠–⁠28 Fed meeting: any weekend escalation could push price back below $80,000.
Price when the brief was released
$80,824
Oct 25, 1:44 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 25, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$80,000–$82,000
55%
55%
30%
15%
Resistance
$81,700
$82,300
$84,000
Support
$80,000
$79,200
$78,400
Sideways · 55%
$80,000–$82,000

It's Sunday: stock markets are shut, there's no data, DVOL at 38 isn't pricing sharp moves, Oct 25⁠–⁠26 expiries with max pain at $81,000⁠–⁠81,500 pull toward the middle, and Saturday's ~$689 million long flush already cleared some leverage. Polymarket's Monday median is $80,922 with the middle half at $79,872⁠–⁠81,902: prediction markets see the same band.

Pullback · 30%
$78,000–$80,000

Price is below the 50-day SMA ($81,700) and the ETF cost basis ($82,313), MACD is negative, ETFs bled ~$773 million over two days, and 68.8% of Binance accounts are long again with funding up to 6.8% annualized: fuel for a second liquidation wave. New strikes on Iran or an oil spike at tonight's futures open could send price toward $78,400 and the Oct 30 max pain at $78,000.

Breakout · 15%
$82,000–$83,500

It would take a short squeeze or Middle East de-escalation: put skew has dropped to about 4%, six-month fractals rose in 5 of 6 cases, and buyers defended $80,000 twice in 10 days. Against it: resistance at $81,700 and $82,300, a likely December Fed hike, and only 22.5% odds on Polymarket of a price above $82,000 on Monday.

What to watch today
  • Holding $80,000 and Saturday's $79,221 low
  • Deribit expiry today at 4 AM ET (08:00 UTC, max pain $81,000) and Monday (max pain $81,500)
  • Iran and Strait of Hormuz headlines; oil and CME futures reopen at 6 PM ET Sunday
  • Daily candle close at 00:00 UTC (8 PM ET)
  • Monday's Bitcoin ETF flows and Strategy's purchase update on Oct 26
  • Fed decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET, US GDP and PCE Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET, Oct 30 expiry (08:00 UTC)
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • Overnight, as of 1:30 AM ET on Oct 25, Bitcoin traded at $80,824: +0.1% over 24 hours, −1.6% on the week and −3.9% on the month.Binance
  • On Saturday Bitcoin dipped to $79,221 on Binance, its lowest in more than a month, then climbed back above $80,000; the 24-hour high was $81,034.Binance
  • Saturday's daily candle (Oct 24) closed at $80,888 (−0.4%) after Friday's close at $81,189.Binance
7 more facts
  • The weekly range is $79,221⁠–⁠84,898 and the monthly range $79,221⁠–⁠87,220: Bitcoin is sitting at the bottom of the band it has held since late September.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.62 trillion with 59.4% dominance; the total crypto market ($2.73 trillion) lost 2.6% in 24 hours as altcoins lagged again.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin is 36% below its all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025) and down 27% year over year.CoinGecko
  • The Fear & Greed Index reads 54 (Neutral), up from 51 yesterday, 53 a week ago and 71 a month ago: the dip below $80,000 did not spark panic.alternative.me
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance is essentially zero (about $0.60): US buyers were not stepping in harder than anyone else overnight.Coinbase
  • Early Sunday, Ether traded near $2,369 (−0.6% on the day), XRP at $1.31 (+1.6%), Solana at $102.70 and BNB at $748.60 (+1.1%).Investing.com
  • Ether briefly fell to $2,285 on Saturday and remains roughly 12% below early-October levels.Crypto

2Technical analysis

  • The 14-day RSI is 44.0: below the midline but well clear of oversold (30).Binance
  • Daily MACD (−254) sits below its signal line (+50) with a histogram of −303: downside momentum persists but barely grew over the past day.Binance
  • Price is sitting right on the 50-day EMA ($80,853) with the 20-day EMA ($82,194) overhead: a close below the 50-day would open the way to $78K–79K.Binance
8 more facts
  • The 50-day simple moving average sits near $81,700: Bitcoin lost it on Saturday for the first time in about two months, making it the nearest resistance.Bitcoin.com
  • Supports below are $78,400 and $77,876, then a $76,700⁠–⁠72,500 zone; $80,000 has become the battleground after Saturday's break.Bitcoin.com
  • The 200-day EMA is $76,487 and the 50-week MA $76,106; the Sept 14 golden cross still stands, so the long-term structure remains bullish.Binance
  • The average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETF holders is about $82,313 (estimate as of Oct 23): price has been below it since Oct 22, turning that zone into resistance.CoinDesk
  • The Mayer Multiple (price vs. the $72,942 200-day average) is 1.11, the 59th percentile; price is 20.6% above the 200-week average ($67,039) and Pi Cycle reads 0.49 of 1: no overheating.CoinLab
  • Our market temperature index stands at 35 out of 100 (cool), vs. 34 a day ago and 36 two days ago.CoinLab
  • Fractals: over the two weeks since Oct 11 price fell 2.3%; in 3 of 6 similar historical stretches it then rose, median +3.7%; the 50-day window also shows 3 of 6, median −0.6%; the six-month window shows gains in 5 of 6, median +10.2%.CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for noon ET on Oct 26 is $80,922, with the middle half of outcomes at $79,872⁠–⁠81,902 and a 52.5% chance of finishing above the current price: our $80,000⁠–⁠82,000 Sideways range closely matches that band.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • More than $810 million in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours on Oct 24, about $689 million of them longs; over 200,000 traders were hit.Bitcoin.com
  • Forced liquidations accelerated the slide once $80,000 broke, and thin weekend liquidity amplified the stop-driven selling.Bitcoin.com
  • Binance funding is +0.0062% per 8 hours (6.8% annualized) vs. a 30-day average of +0.0033%: longs are paying more to shorts after the dip.Binance
6 more facts
  • Funding is higher elsewhere: 6.9% annualized on Bybit, 8.9% on OKX and 11.0% on Hyperliquid.Bybit
  • Open interest in Binance perpetuals is 93,974 BTC ($7.59 billion): +1.2% on the day and −0.2% on the week, so positions are being rebuilt after the liquidations.Binance
  • 68.8% of Binance accounts are long (2.21 to 1) vs. 1.70 to 1 among top traders: retail keeps buying the dip.Binance
  • Binance's taker buy/sell ratio is 0.96: sellers are slightly more aggressive.Binance
  • Binance's futures mark price trades slightly below the index (about −0.05%): derivatives carry no bullish premium.Binance
  • Our squeeze-risk index is −19 out of 100: a mild tilt toward a long flush given the crowded longs, far from a strong signal.CoinLab

4Options

  • DVOL is 38.0 (37.9 a week ago): even after the break of $80,000, options traders are not pricing sharp moves.Deribit
  • The put/call open-interest ratio is 0.60; total Deribit open interest is 388,437 BTC (about $31.4 billion).Deribit
  • Today at 08:00 UTC 3,535 BTC expire with max pain at $81,000, and tomorrow 2,436 BTC with max pain at $81,500: small expiries pulling toward $81K.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The big one is Oct 30 at 08:00 UTC: 136,168 BTC (about $11 billion, 35% of Deribit open interest), max pain $78,000, put/call 0.56.Deribit
  • One-week 25-delta put skew fell to about 4% on Oct 23 from a mid-month peak near 14%: demand for downside protection had faded before Saturday's drop.CoinDesk
  • Further out: 12,578 BTC expire Nov 6 (max pain $82,000), 36,979 BTC on Nov 27 ($81,000) and 133,056 BTC on Dec 25 ($75,000).Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $137.9 million on Oct 23: IBIT −$110.3 million, FBTC −$31.8 million, while Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in $4.2 million.Livebitcoinnews
  • Oct 22 saw $635.6 million of outflows, the largest day since June 25: IBIT −$254.1 million, FBTC −$217.5 million, ARKB −$109.4 million; the two-day total is about $773 million.247wallst
  • The week of Oct 19⁠–⁠23 still ended positive: +$228⁠–⁠301 million depending on the tally, after more than $1 billion came in over the first three days.Financefeeds
7 more facts
  • Cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $57.3 billion, with total assets of $104.7 billion, about $65.8 billion of it in IBIT (as of Oct 22).247wallst
  • ETF investors can't trade until Monday, so fund reaction to Saturday's drop will show up on Oct 26.Bitcoin.com
  • Strategy holds 848,517 BTC at an average $75,446; its latest buy was 267 BTC for $22.1 million (week to Oct 18), and it usually reports new purchases on Mondays.SEC
  • Strategy spent $193 million buying back its own preferred shares, far more than on bitcoin; Fidelity Digital Assets estimates such preferreds have funded about 136,000 BTC of purchases since 2025.Investing.com
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of the eventual supply); behind Strategy are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC) and Twenty One Capital (43,514).CoinGecko
  • Ether ETFs took in just $4.4 million on Oct 23 after $110.6 million of outflows the day before; they lost about $1 billion from Oct 1 to 22.Livebitcoinnews
  • Franklin Templeton placed $150 million of fund shares on the XRP Ledger (Oct 24).CoinDesk

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • MVRV was 1.49 on Oct 24, the 39th historical percentile: the average holder is up 49%, far from overheated territory.Coinmetrics
  • The short-term holder cost basis was $74,573 as of Oct 18: the market is 8% above it, so recent buyers are still in profit on average.Bgeometrics
  • Stablecoin supply is $304.4 billion: −0.65% on the week and −$3.0 billion on the month, so fresh money is not arriving.Defillama
6 more facts
  • Polymarket's October targets: 68% for $82,500 and 30.5% for $85,000 on the upside; 36.5% for $77,500 and 12.5% for $75,000 on the downside.Polymarket
  • Polymarket prices a 73.5% chance Bitcoin is above $80,000 at noon ET on Oct 26 and 22.5% for above $82,000.Polymarket
  • Xapo Bank's CEO says wealthy clients increasingly borrow against their bitcoin instead of selling it.Investing.com
  • About 169,770 ETH left centralized exchanges in a single day, the largest daily withdrawal in more than four months, per Santiment.Kucoin
  • The 2026 low was $57,850 on July 1; by Oct 22 Bitcoin had rebounded about 40%, whereas in 2014, 2018 and 2022 the bottom came in the weeks after the midterms.CoinDesk
  • On Oct 23 a whale moved about 4,000 BTC (~$327 million) to Binance and Deribit within five hours: potential supply, though no sale is confirmed.Tokenpost

7Mining

  • Hashrate is 1,071 EH/s and difficulty 140.58 trillion; the epoch is 65% complete.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is expected Oct 29, projected at +4.8% after +5.9% last time: hashpower keeps growing.mempool.space
  • Fees are at the floor, 1 sat/vB for both fast and within-the-hour confirmation: the network is quiet.mempool.space
2 more facts
  • Block height is 973,024, with 76,976 blocks to the halving, expected around April 11, 2028.mempool.space
  • Bitcoin Core developers are changing their vulnerability disclosure policy (Oct 23): AI makes bugs too easy to find to keep them secret.CoinDesk

8Macro

  • A quiet overnight with no markets: it's Sunday, US and Asian exchanges are shut and there's no data; the first signal will be the US futures open at 6 PM ET tonight.CME FedWatch
  • On Friday, Oct 23, the S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,624 and the Nasdaq slipped 0.21% to 25,955.Yahoo Finance
  • Brent settled at $116.72 on Oct 23 (+3.1%), its highest close since April 29, up 6.2% on the week for a third straight weekly gain; WTI closed at $103.27.CNBC
10 more facts
  • On Oct 24 Iran's armed forces chief said the US Navy would not be allowed near Iranian waters, and Tehran tied reopening the Strait of Hormuz to Washington accepting its demands.Aljazeera
  • Trump said on Oct 23 the US 'may do another Epic Fury,' a repeat of the war's opening bombing campaign; as of Oct 24 Washington was still deliberating, and oil is pricing in strike risk.Aljazeera
  • Gold fell 1.3% on Friday to $4,008 and lost 4.1% on the week: havens aren't benefiting from the tension.Yahoo Finance
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 bp to 5.00% on Oct 23 and the 2-year rose 4 bp to 4.69%.Treasury
  • The dollar index (DXY) is at 101.81 (+0.2% on the day) and the VIX at 19.45 (+2.2%).Yahoo Finance
  • The fed funds range is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00%; Polymarket gives 94.5% to a hold at the Oct 27⁠–⁠28 meeting and 4.5% to a 25 bp hike, and 77.5% to a 25 bp hike on Dec 8⁠–⁠9.Polymarket
  • CME FedWatch puts the odds of a hike this week at about 9% and in December at 84%; 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect a hold.Kiplinger
  • On Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET come Q3 GDP (consensus ~3.0%, GDPNow 3.5%) and September PCE (expected 3.6% y/y, core 3.1%).Newsquawk
  • A central-bank-heavy week: the Bank of Canada and RBNZ are expected to hike 25 bp on Oct 28, the ECB meets Oct 29 and the Bank of Japan Oct 30 (hold at 1.25% expected).Newsquawk
  • University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7% (Oct 23, from 4.6% in September): an argument against Fed easing.CoinDesk

9Regulation and events

  • Hardware wallet maker Keystone disclosed a customer data breach (names, contacts, shipping addresses); private keys and seed phrases were not affected, and users are warned about phishing.Investing.com
  • Apex Group founder Peter Hughes argues the failure of the Clarity Act (it fell short in the Senate on Sept 15) hands an edge to Asia, the Middle East and Bermuda.CoinDesk
  • The CFTC opened public comment on Oct 5 on rules for leveraged retail crypto trading, moving ahead without legislation from Congress.CFTC
5 more facts
  • Sen. Richard Blumenthal asked Tether for details on payments to a firm founded by former White House crypto adviser Bo Hines (Oct 23).The Block
  • The central banks of Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand are expanding a cross-border stablecoin settlement project with Ripple, Visa and Mastercard (Oct 23).The Block
  • The Initia network was halted after a security incident on Oct 23; the attacker reportedly minted tokens.The Block
  • Political calendar: China's Fifth Plenum runs Oct 26⁠–⁠29, Israel holds Knesset elections on Oct 27 and the US midterms are Nov 3.Newsquawk
  • The Fed decision is due Oct 28 at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET, with no new projections.Federal Reserve

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
19
Base case came true
84%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
100%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 16, 2026$82,202$81,616 (-0.8%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 15, 2026$81,108$82,246 (+0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 14, 2026$83,610$81,682 (-1.8%) Sideways, 45%Pullbackno
October 13, 2026$83,728$83,169 (+1.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 12, 2026$84,017$81,850 (-2.3%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
October 11, 2026$83,078$83,773 (+0.9%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 10, 2026$82,669$82,988 (+0.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 9, 2026$82,374$82,636 (+1.1%) Sideways, 48%Sidewaysyes
October 8, 2026$82,927$81,754 (-1.9%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 7, 2026$84,194$83,322 (-2.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 6, 2026$85,674$85,550 (-0.2%) Sideways, 60%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight