This is the archived brief for October 30, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s

Friday, October 30, 2026

Bitcoin today, October 30, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Oct 30, 1:50 AM ET · price at release $78,686Two briefs a day: overnight at 1:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 1:30 AM ET Friday, Bitcoin traded at $78,686, down 2.1% in 24 hours and 3.1% on the week.

Right after Thursday's US close, Binance suffered the largest hack in crypto history — about $6.3 billion by the exchange's own estimate, with deposits and withdrawals halted; the price slid from $80,300 at 4:15 PM ET to $76,418 by 10:07 PM ET and bounced back to $78,700 by the overnight read, while 24-hour liquidations reached $1.55 billion, $1.34 billion of them longs.
The base case for the next 24 hours is a nervous $77,000⁠–⁠80,000 range: the Polymarket median for Saturday of $78,673 matches the price at the time of writing, and the $10.6 billion Deribit expiry with max pain at $78,000 at 4:00 AM ET pins the price to that level.
The main risk is the 9:30 AM ET US open with Nasdaq-100 futures down 2.1% after Amazon and Intel, plus any new disclosures from Binance: a break of the overnight low at $76,500 opens the road to $75,800 and $73,500.

Price when the brief was released

$78,686

Oct 30, 1:50 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 30, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case

Sideways

$77,000–$80,000

45%

35%

20%

Resistance

$80,000
$80,635
$81,972

Support

$76,500
$75,800
$73,500

Sideways · 45%

$77,000–$80,000

The first shock has been absorbed: $1.55 billion in positions burned overnight, open interest fell 2.6%, the squeeze index is near zero, and the 200-day EMA at $76,542 held the low. The Polymarket median for Saturday of $78,673 and the interquartile range of $77,128⁠–⁠79,879 nearly match the price at the time of writing; the $10.6 billion expiry with max pain at $78,000 at 4:00 AM ET pulls the price toward that level, and DVOL at 38 implies an expected move of only ±$1,570. Binance froze $3 billion and pledged to cover losses from SAFU, Tether and Circle blocked $2.4 billion — there is no classic bank run of the FTX kind so far. The upside is capped by the 50-day EMA at $80,635 and Polymarket's 22.5% chance of a close above $80,000; the downside is held by the overnight low and the short-term holder cost basis at $75,800.

Pullback · 35%

$73,500–$77,000

The main risk is the 9:30 AM ET US open: Nasdaq-100 futures are −2.1% after Amazon and Intel, the Kospi fell 4.9%, and Bitcoin is falling alongside tech for a second day. Withdrawals from Binance are closed: every extension of the pause or revision of the damage above $6.3 billion will hit BNB and drag the market, while Thursday's ETF flows shrank to $17 million. The Fear and Greed Index is 30 after 51, MACD is widening downward, RSI is 39; 70% of Binance accounts are still long and funding on OKX and Hyperliquid is 0.01% — there is someone left to liquidate. A break of $76,500 (the 200-day EMA) opens $75,800 — the short-term holder cost basis and the 50-week moving average at $75,782 — below which the $70,000 puts and the 200-day SMA at $73,111 become the magnet; Polymarket gives 11.3% for $75,000 in October.

Breakout · 20%

$80,000–$82,500

If Binance resumes withdrawals by the evening and confirms the loss coverage, the market gets a reason to close the gap: the overnight bounce from $76,418 to $78,700 showed there is a buyer at the 200-day EMA, while the drop in 10-year yields toward 4.90% and the stronger yen ease the rate pressure. Whales bought 11,326 BTC ($903 million) the day before, exchange outflows are the largest in five weeks, and the hacker's stablecoins are frozen, so they will not reach the market. After the 4:00 AM ET expiry the max pain anchor at $78,000 disappears, and covering of the shorts added overnight could lift the price to the 50-day EMA at $80,635 and the 20-day EMA at $81,172; a close above $82,000 would require a Nasdaq reversal at the US open.

What to watch today

4:00 AM ET — Deribit options expiry, $10.6 billion notional, max pain $78,000
Any Binance statement on resuming withdrawals or revising the damage estimate ($6.3 billion)
8:30 AM ET — Q3 Employment Cost Index (forecast 0.8% q/q)
9:30 AM ET — US opening bell with Nasdaq-100 futures down 2.1% after Amazon and Intel
9:45 AM ET — Chicago PMI; 12:00 PM and 12:30 PM ET — speeches by Daly and Musalem (Fed)
Evening — spot BTC ETF flows for the first day after the hack
8:00 PM ET Friday — daily and monthly candle close (00:00 UTC); 12:00 PM ET Saturday — Polymarket resolution of the $78,000 and $80,000 markets

This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

As of 1:30 AM ET Friday, Bitcoin traded at $78,686: −2.1% on the day, −3.1% on the week and −5.9% on the month: October is closing in the red after a +6.4% September.Binance
The 24-hour range was $76,500⁠–⁠81,971: the high was set before the hack, the low came at 10:07 PM ET as the market digested Binance's $6.3 billion damage estimate.Binance
Overnight timeline: $80,327 at 4:15 PM ET, $78,763 by 5:00 PM, $77,771 by 8:00 PM, $76,418 at 10:07 PM and $78,572 by 1:39 AM ET; the drop from the afternoon level to the low was 4.9%.Cryptoticker

6 more facts

The $76,500 low is a new low of the week and month and the lowest level since mid-September; the 90-day low remains $62,300 and the high of the month $87,220.Binance
Binance spot volume over 24 hours was 31,132 BTC, about $2.46 billion — 2.2 times the previous day's: the market sold on the news.Binance
Bitcoin's market cap is $1.58 trillion with 59.4% dominance (ETH at 10.3%); total crypto market cap is $2.65 trillion, −4.5% on the day — altcoins fell harder than Bitcoin.CoinGecko
BNB took the biggest hit: −7.1% to $698.65 with a low of $692; ETH −5.2% to $2,190, XRP −7% to $1.21, SOL −6.6% to $94, AAVE −11.3%, UNI −10.4%.The Block
The price sits 37.7% below the all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025); year over year it is down 27.7%.CoinGecko
The Coinbase premium was −0.25% unadjusted, or −0.03% (about −$22) adjusted for the USDT rate: US buyers did not step in to buy the overnight dip.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

The overnight low of $76,500 stopped right at the 200-day EMA ($76,542): the 200-day exponential average held for now, and the Sep 13 golden cross is not yet undone.Binance
From above, the price fell back below all the short-term averages: the 50-day EMA at $80,635 and the 20-day EMA at $81,172 are now resistance, with the daily high of $81,971 the next barrier.Binance
Daily RSI(14) is 39.3 — a second day below 40 (the first such readings in October), but with room before oversold (30); intraday RSI dipped to 32 near $76,400.FXStreet

6 more facts

MACD is −788 versus the signal line at −382, with the histogram at −405 widening again after two days of narrowing: downside momentum has resumed.Binance
Nearest support: $76,500 (the overnight low and the 200-day EMA), $75,800 (the short-term holder cost basis as of Oct 23) and $75,782 (the 50-week moving average); below that, the 200-day SMA at $73,111.Binance
Resistance: the round $80,000 (Polymarket gives only 22.5% for a close above it on Saturday), the 50-day EMA at $80,635 and the $81,200⁠–⁠82,000 zone (the 20-day EMA and Thursday's high).Polymarket
DVOL is 38.0 (38.0 a week ago): the options market expects a daily move of about ±2%, or ±$1,570 from the price at the time of writing — the overnight 4.9% drop was already more than twice that norm.Deribit
The Polymarket median for Saturday is $78,673 with an interquartile range of $77,128⁠–⁠79,879: the prediction market expects the price to settle near the current level, and our base corridor of $77,000⁠–⁠80,000 is slightly wider.Polymarket
Fractals (as of Oct 29, before the hack): in the two-week window 4 of 6 similar historical stretches ended higher (median +0.5%), in the 50-day window only 2 of 6 (median −3.5%), in the six-month window 5 of 6 (median +6.9%).CoinLab

3Derivatives

24-hour liquidations came to $1.55 billion across 246,482 traders, $1.34 billion of them longs; the largest single order was $11.09 million in BTCUSDT on Binance.The Block
In the single hour after the first hack headlines (5:00⁠–⁠6:00 PM ET), $628 million was wiped out, $607 million of it longs — a third of the day's liquidations.Cryptoticker
About $475 million was liquidated in Bitcoin, more than in any other coin; on Binance, $165 million in longs burned over 24 hours against $29 million in shorts.CoinGlass

4 more facts

Binance BTC futures open interest is 96,742 BTC ($7.61 billion): −2.6% on the day and −2.0% on the week — leverage is being flushed, not added.Binance
Binance funding is 0.0020% per 8 hours against a 30-day average of 0.0041%; Bybit 0.0057%, OKX and Hyperliquid 0.01% each (about 11% annualized) — longs on the smaller venues are still paying.Bybit
The Binance long/short ratio by accounts is 2.37 (70.3% long), with large traders at 1.92; takers are selling, with a buy/sell ratio of 0.93.Binance
CoinLab squeeze index is −5 on a ±100 scale: after the overnight flush the imbalance has collapsed to near zero, and there is no fuel for a sharp move in either direction.CoinLab

4Options

Today at 4:00 AM ET, 134,383 BTC in options worth $10.6 billion expire on Deribit — the monthly expiry, a third of total open interest (414,704 BTC).Deribit
Max pain for the expiry is $78,000, right at the price at the time of writing: option sellers have an interest in holding the market there until 4:00 AM ET; on Binance and OKX the level is around $81,000.Kucoin
Put/call on the expiring contracts is 0.52: calls are concentrated at $95,000 and $100,000 and will expire worthless, puts at $70,000.Cryptoticker

3 more facts

Total put/call by open interest is 0.62; DVOL at 38.0 did not rise overnight, meaning no panic in options — the hedges were bought in advance.Deribit
After today's expiry the next large one is Nov 27: 44,895 BTC with max pain at $81,000; on Nov 6, 15,755 BTC expire (max pain $81,000).Deribit
Saturday's open interest is small — 6,056 BTC with max pain at $80,000 and put/call 0.97: short-dated hedges are being bought for the weekend after the hack.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

Spot BTC ETFs took in $17.07 million on Oct 29 — a fourth day of inflows, but eight times less than the day before ($137.3 million): IBIT +$12.8 million, FBTC +$10.5 million, Grayscale BTC Mini −$15.4 million.Panews
Cumulative inflows into spot BTC ETFs since launch stand at $57.62 billion, with assets under management at $104.27 billion; over the 30 days through Oct 29 the funds lost $255 million.SoSoValue
Flows for Oct 30 will be known in the evening after the US close: it is the first trading day after the Binance hack, and it will show whether US institutions are buying the dip through IBIT.SoSoValue

5 more facts

Ether ETFs lost $21.4 million on Oct 28 (a third day of outflows); Oct 29 data was not available at the time of writing, and Solana ETFs gave up $24.8 million over Oct 27⁠–⁠28.SoSoValue
Strategy reported Q3 net income to common shareholders of $19.12 billion ($44.75 per share) on a $20.91 billion Bitcoin revaluation gain; revenue of $125.4 million (−3% y/y) missed the forecast, and the stock fell after the close.SEC
As of Oct 25, Strategy held 848,517 BTC at an average of $75,446 ($64.02 billion in total): at the price at the time of writing the holdings are worth $66.8 billion, a 4.3% cushion above cost; year-to-date "BTC Yield" is −3.7%.SEC
Strategy's dollar reserve is $4.83 billion, with $5.07 billion in total dollar assets covering 3.4 years of preferred dividends; from Nov 1, STRC pays 12% annualized, accrued daily.SEC
181 public companies hold 1.31 million BTC ($102.9 billion, 6.25% of supply): Strategy 848,517, Metaplanet 44,000, Twenty One 43,514, Strive 43,000, MARA 35,577; the MSCI list of "non-operating companies" slated for removal comes out Nov 11.CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

The Fear and Greed Index plunged from 51 to 30 ("fear") in a single day — a 21-point fall, the sharpest one-day drop in a year, matching Nov 4, 2025; a week ago it was 50, a month ago 71.alternative.me
CoinLab market temperature is 31 of 100 (33 yesterday, 42 on Oct 6): in the cold zone, but far from extremes.CoinLab
The short-term holder cost basis is $75,800 (as of Oct 23): the overnight low of $76,500 stopped $700 above it; losing that level has historically triggered speculator capitulation.Bitcoinmagazinepro

6 more facts

Mayer Multiple is 1.076 (price 7.6% above the 200-day SMA of $73,111, the 54th percentile of history), with a 16.5% cushion to the 200-week average at $67,555; Pi Cycle is 0.49 — the top signal is far off.Binance
Hyperliquid whales went net short Bitcoin for the first time since March — last week, before the hack; overnight they were proved right.Parameter
On the eve of the hack two large addresses sent about $200 million in BTC to exchanges, while one whale bought 11,326 BTC for $903 million; net exchange outflow for the day was 14,942 BTC, the most in five weeks.Parameter
Stablecoins total $301.2 billion: −1.2% on the week and −$6.8 billion (−2.2%) on the month; the freeze of $1.57 billion in USDT and $823 million in USDC on the Binance hacker's addresses took that money out of circulation on top.Defillama
On-chain analysts at TRM Labs linked the attack "with high confidence" to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, and ZachXBT named Lazarus Group as the likely perpetrator; that means the roughly $1.5 billion in stolen BTC will be laundered through mixers over months rather than dumped on the market at once.CoinDesk
The hacker is already using DeFi: borrowed 20,000 WETH (about $44 million) on Aave against stolen USDT as collateral and ran swaps through Uniswap; Aave froze its markets, and Coinbase is blocking transfers to the flagged addresses.CoinDesk

7Mining

The Oct 29 difficulty adjustment came in at +5.5% to 148.36 T — the second increase in a row after +5.9% on Oct 16.mempool.space
Hashrate is 1,049 EH/s on the 7-day average, with the network above 1 ZH/s for a second week; at $78,700 the post-adjustment hashprice is about $34 per PH/s per day.Oneminers
The next adjustment is due around Nov 13, 1,967 blocks away; at the current block pace the estimate is −3.0%: some miners are switching off after the difficulty jump and the price drop.mempool.space

2 more facts

Fees are 2 sat/vB for fast confirmation and 1 sat/vB within the hour: even the overnight panic produced no mempool backlog — the flight from Binance did not run over the Bitcoin network.mempool.space
Block height 973,777; 76,223 blocks to the halving, estimated around Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space

8Macro

The Nasdaq closed Thursday at 26,184.72 (−1.38%), the S&P 500 at 7,720.39 (−0.30%), VIX at 17.2: Alphabet collapsed 12.6% after a report with negative cash flow, even though 81% of index members rose.Yahoo Finance
Amazon lost 6⁠–⁠7% after the close: revenue of $201.9 billion versus $202.2 billion expected, EPS of $1.89 versus $1.97, AWS +39%, the $220 billion 2026 capex plan kept; Intel fell 21% on weak guidance tied to the PC slump.CNBC
Nasdaq-100 futures were −2.1% and S&P 500 futures −1.0% by the overnight read: the 9:30 AM ET open promises a second wave of selling in tech, which Bitcoin trades alongside.CNBC

9 more facts

Asia on Friday: Kospi −4.9% (the exchange triggered its sidecar curb after futures fell 5%), Kosdaq −4.3%, Nikkei −2.5%, Shanghai −0.8%, with the Hang Seng against the trend at +1.4%.Investinglive
The Bank of Japan held its rate at 1.25% by an 8⁠–⁠1 vote (Hajime Takata for 1.5%), stated for the first time that underlying inflation has reached the 2% target, raised its fiscal 2027 forecast to 2.6% and will double ETF sales to ¥860 billion a year from January; the yen strengthened to 157.1.Yahoo Finance
Thursday's data: US Q3 GDP +3.4% versus a 3.1⁠–⁠3.2% forecast, September PCE 3.6% y/y and 0.5% m/m, core 3.1% y/y, jobless claims 194,000; inflation accelerating alongside strong growth is an argument for a rate hike.Bea
FedWatch as of Oct 30 gives 79.6% for a 25 bp hike on Dec 9 (73.3% a week ago, 49.4% a month ago); Polymarket has 72.5% for a hike and 25.5% for a pause, and 70.5% for a pause in January.CME FedWatch
The 10-year Treasury yield closed Oct 29 at 4.98% (−7 bp), the 2-year at 4.61% (−6 bp); overnight the 10-year dipped toward 4.90%, a one-month low: the tech selloff is pushing money into bonds.Treasury
The dollar index DXY is 101.83 (−0.2% on the day, flat over five days): the dollar is not rising despite the flight from risk — the yen and bonds are absorbing the demand for safety.Yahoo Finance
Oil: WTI $102.96 (+0.9%), Brent $114⁠–⁠116 — a tanker caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz off Khasab, the IRGC claimed four mine strikes in a day and CENTCOM denied it; Brent is +11% for October, and ANZ raised its year-end forecast to $105.Oilprice
Gold at $4,009 (−0.5% on the day): it did not break below $4,000, but it did not work as a hedge against the overnight panic either.Yahoo Finance
Calendar for the day: 8:30 AM ET Q3 Employment Cost Index (forecast 0.8% q/q after 0.9%), 9:45 AM ET Chicago PMI (58.8 prior), 12:00 PM ET a speech by Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed), 12:30 PM ET Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed).Trading Economics

9Regulation and events

The Binance hack: on Oct 29 at 4:20 PM ET the "Binance 14" wallet was delegated via EIP-7702 to a third-party contract, and within 20 minutes 167,464 ETH and 63 tokens were drained, followed by another 195,460 ETH and 780 million USDC; Binance puts the damage at about $6.3 billion, Chainalysis at $5.9 billion.Cryptoticker
What was stolen (Arkham): about $1.5 billion in BTC, $900 million in ETH, $1.5 billion in USDT and over $800 million in USDC; by chain — Ethereum $3.78 billion, Bitcoin $1.44 billion, Tron $628 million, XRP Ledger $290 million, Solana $94 million. It is the largest hack in history, four times Bybit's ($1.5 billion, February 2025).FXStreet
Binance at 10:30 PM ET: the cause was a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop, through which the attacker reached a service container and sent unauthorized withdrawals; no private-key leak was found; about $3 billion has been frozen, and deposits and withdrawals remain halted until the review is complete.CoinDesk

5 more facts

Binance co-CEO Yi He pledged at 8:04 PM ET to cover all losses from the SAFU fund (about $1 billion in BTC) and company funds; CZ (Changpeng Zhao) wrote that "this looks like a hack" and that as a shareholder he expects full reimbursement. The stolen amount is about 4% of the exchange's $144 billion in assets.CoinDesk
Tether froze $1.567 billion in USDT and Circle $823 million in USDC within 40 minutes of the start of the drain; Ripple and World Liberty Financial froze their tokens, and Coinbase is blocking transfers to the hacker's addresses.The Block
The day's second incident: Polymarket reported a breach at a third-party provider with less than $3 million in damage, temporarily restricted trading on its international platform and promised to reimburse losses; the Bitcoin markets were unaffected.FXStreet
Regulatory backdrop: the SEC and CFTC are writing crypto rules without Congress after the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate — the CFTC is taking comments on its Crypto Asset Markets (CAM) regime, and the SEC vote on Regulation Crypto Assets has been postponed; a $6.3 billion hack will raise the bar for exchange custody security.CoinDesk
Key dates: 4:00 AM ET the $10.6 billion Deribit expiry, 9:30 AM ET the US open, 8:00 PM ET Friday the daily and monthly candle close, 12:00 PM ET Saturday the Polymarket resolution; US clocks fall back one hour on Nov 1, midterm elections Nov 3, the MSCI list Nov 11, the Fed Dec 8⁠–⁠9.Deribit

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast

Base case came true

85%

the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range

At least one scenario right

100%

the close landed inside one of the three ranges

Day	Morning price	Close	Base case	Came true	Hit
October 29, 2026 · overnight	$80,389	$78,280 (-2.5%)	Sideways, 48%	Pullback	no
October 28, 2026 · overnight	$80,947	$80,256 (-0.9%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,831	$80,170 (-1.4%)	Sideways, 52%	Sideways	yes
October 27, 2026 · overnight	$79,789	$80,994 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · overnight	$80,172	$79,759 (-0.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,516	$79,910 (-0.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · overnight	$80,824	$80,134 (-1.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,350	$80,416 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,776	$80,581 (+0.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 23, 2026	$81,637	$81,189 (-0.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 22, 2026	$82,932	$81,416 (-3.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 21, 2026	$82,892	$84,093 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 20, 2026	$81,990	$83,028 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 19, 2026	$82,886	$81,938 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 18, 2026	$81,746	$82,116 (+0.8%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 17, 2026	$81,615	$81,491 (-0.1%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 16, 2026	$82,202	$81,616 (-0.8%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 15, 2026	$81,108	$82,246 (+0.7%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 14, 2026	$83,610	$81,682 (-1.8%)	Sideways, 45%	Pullback	no
October 13, 2026	$83,728	$83,169 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 12, 2026	$84,017	$81,850 (-2.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Pullback	no
October 11, 2026	$83,078	$83,773 (+0.9%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 10, 2026	$82,669	$82,988 (+0.4%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 9, 2026	$82,374	$82,636 (+1.1%)	Sideways, 48%	Sideways	yes
October 8, 2026	$82,927	$81,754 (-1.9%)	Sideways, 47%	Pullback	no
October 7, 2026	$84,194	$83,322 (-2.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 6, 2026	$85,674	$85,550 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 60%	Sideways	yes

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