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This is the archived brief for November 10, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Bitcoin today, November 10, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Nov 10, 8:45 AM ET · price at release $73,980Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:43 AM ET, ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded at $73,980, down 0.8% in 24 hours: October CPI came in hot — +0.4% m/m with core at +0.3%, versus +0.3% and +0.2% expected — and knocked BTC to $73,525 within five minutes, $15 above Sunday's low.

  • Base case for the next 24 hours: sideways at $72,800⁠–⁠75,600 (42%), with a 36% risk of a pullback toward $70,500 — the print cements bets on a Dec 9 Fed hike that Waller already backs, and spot ETFs have bled for three straight sessions.
Price when the brief was released
$73,980
Nov 10, 8:45 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 10, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$72,800–$75,600
42%
42%
36%
22%
Resistance
$75,000
$75,570
$76,700
Support
$73,500
$73,200
$72,000
Sideways · 42%
$72,800–$75,600

Much of the hot CPI was already priced: before the print markets expected a Dec 9 hike (CME FedWatch; Polymarket 87.5%), so the selloff stopped at $73,525 and buyers stepped in near $73,900. DVOL at 39.7 implies about a ±$1,540 daily move, tomorrow's expiry has max pain at $75,000, and Veterans Day thins liquidity on Wednesday. Sunday's $73,510 low and the 200-day SMA at $73,209 hold below, while the 50-week MA at $75,217 and Strategy's $75,456 cost basis cap the upside.

Pullback · 36%
$70,500–$72,800

A second straight 0.3% core reading keeps even the 50 bp hike Waller floated on the table, and the 2-year yield is already at 4.62%. ETFs have bled for three sessions, MARA is selling BTC, stablecoin supply is shrinking, the Coinbase premium is negative, and retail is 73.5% long while open interest rose 2.9% — fuel for a long flush. A break of $73,500 and a daily close below $73,000 opens $70,000⁠–⁠71,000, per BRN.

Breakout · 22%
$75,600–$77,500

If stocks buy the dip at the 9:30 AM ET open as they did Monday (S&P 500 +2.35%), Bitcoin could reclaim its 50-week average. Fear at 32, a market temperature of 28/100 and the two-week fractal (4 of 6 up) mark classic bounce territory, and Hyperliquid whales' shorts are fuel for a squeeze. Reclaiming $75,600 and the $75,757 short-term holder cost basis opens the 200-day EMA at $76,737; without an ETF flow reversal, above $77,500 within a day is unlikely.

What to watch today
  • Today, 9:30 AM ET: US open — how stocks and ETFs digest the hot CPI
  • Today and tonight: Fed speakers after CPI, odds of a 50 bp December hike
  • Overnight: Tuesday's spot Bitcoin ETF flows; after the close — CoreWeave, Bitdeer and eToro earnings
  • 7:00 PM ET (00:00 UTC): daily candle close — holding $73,000⁠–⁠73,500
  • Wednesday, 08:00 UTC: Deribit expiry of 1,881 BTC, max pain $75,000
  • Wednesday, Nov 11: Veterans Day, bond market closed — thin liquidity
  • Friday, Nov 13: PPI and a 33,020 BTC expiry (max pain $77,000); difficulty adjustment around −6.9%
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 8:43 AM ET, ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded at $73,980: down 0.8% over 24 hours, 3.7% over 7 days and 11% over 30 days.Binance
  • The hot CPI print at 8:30 AM ET knocked Bitcoin from $74,410 to $73,525 — a fresh 24-hour low — within five minutes; buyers lifted it back to about $73,900 by 8:40 AM ET.Binance
  • The 24-hour range was $73,525⁠–⁠75,568: the high came Monday evening, and during the European morning the price drifted down toward $74,200.Binance
6 more facts
  • Sunday's low of $73,510, the lowest since August, held for now: the CPI drop stopped just $15 above it.Binance
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 12,679 BTC (about $947 million).Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap is about $1.49 trillion and the whole crypto market $2.50 trillion (down 3.5% in a day); BTC dominance is 59.7%, ETH 10.2%.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin sits about 41% below its record of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025) and is down 30% over the year.CoinGecko
  • Ether slipped to $2,069 after CPI, below Monday's low near $2,100; XRP is down for a sixth straight day at about $1.09, with RSI at 26.FXStreet
  • The Coinbase premium to Binance stood at −0.14% (−$106) at 8:30 AM ET: US buyers are selling harder than offshore traders.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) is around 35: weak, but not oversold.Binance
  • MACD at −1,748 is below its signal line at −1,406, histogram −341: downside momentum picked up again after easing this morning.Binance
  • Price is below the 20-day EMA ($77,857), 50-day EMA ($79,129) and 200-day EMA ($76,737), all acting as resistance; the last EMA cross was a golden cross on Sep 16.Binance
8 more facts
  • The 50-week moving average is $75,217, with price 1.6% below it; Galaxy says the bullish setup survives if the average is reclaimed within a month.The Block
  • The 200-day simple moving average is $73,209 and the Mayer Multiple is 1.02: the post-CPI low of $73,525 stopped about $300 above it.Binance
  • Crypto Finance sees support near $73,700 and a psychological floor at $70,000; BRN says a daily close (UTC) below $73,000 opens the way to $70,000.FXStreet
  • Bitget Wallet flags $73,000⁠–⁠74,000 as the key zone, with $68,000 at risk below it; reclaiming $80,000 would be the signal of strength.CoinDesk
  • Levels: support at $73,500 (Sunday and CPI lows), $73,200 (200-day SMA) and $72,000; resistance at $75,000, $75,570 (24-hour high above the 50-week MA) and $76,700 (200-day EMA).Binance
  • The 200-week moving average is $67,984, about 9% below price; the Pi Cycle ratio is 0.50, far from overheated.CoinLab
  • Fractals: the latest two-week stretch (−5.6%) resembles six past episodes, four of which were followed by gains (median +7.5%); the 50-day pattern went up 3 times out of 6 with a −0.4% median. Statistics, not a promise.CoinLab
  • Before CPI, Polymarket priced a median of $74,405 for noon ET on Nov 11 (interquartile $72,883⁠–⁠75,712) and a 50.5% chance of an up day; our base case is a touch lower — $72,800⁠–⁠75,600 centered near $74,000 after the hot print.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Crypto liquidations in the 24 hours to Tuesday morning totaled about $334 million, a third of the prior day; $95.9 million hit Ether and $89.3 million Bitcoin.Kucoin
  • On Nov 9 liquidations topped $1 billion: $448 million in Ether, almost double Bitcoin's $272 million.CoinDesk
  • Exchange liquidation feeds show about $16.5 million in BTC longs and $5.0 million in shorts wiped out over 24 hours: buyers are taking the hits.CoinLab
5 more facts
  • Open interest in Binance BTC futures is 100,617 BTC (about $7.44 billion), up 2.9% in a day: traders added positions into CPI rather than cutting them.Binance
  • Post-CPI funding: Binance 0.007% per 8 hours, Hyperliquid 0.01% (11% annualized), Bybit 0.005%, OKX near zero — longs are paying, without overheating.Binance
  • Binance account long/short ratio is 2.77 (73.5% long); top traders are at 2.27: retail remains crowded on the long side.Binance
  • Hyperliquid whales turned net short Bitcoin for the first time in seven months as of Nov 8, per Glassnode, with short exposure the largest since October 2025.Bloomingbit
  • CoinLab's squeeze index is −31, tilted toward a long flush: retail is long and long liquidations run three times shorts.CoinLab

4Options

  • Tomorrow, Nov 11, at 08:00 UTC, 1,881 BTC of options expire on Deribit with max pain at $75,000 and a put/call ratio of 1.08.Deribit
  • The next large expiry is Friday, Nov 13: 33,020 BTC, max pain $77,000, put/call 0.60.Deribit
  • The Nov 27 monthly expiry holds 76,848 BTC with max pain at $79,000; the Dec 25 expiry holds 140,998 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The DVOL volatility index is 39.7 (39.3 a week ago), implying a daily move of about ±2.1%, or ±$1,540.Deribit
  • Total options put/call ratio is 0.73, with open interest of 341,054 BTC ($25.2 billion).Deribit
  • On Nov 9, four of the six most-traded Bitcoin options were puts struck at $70,000⁠–⁠72,000, and one-week puts traded at a 13% premium to calls.CoinDesk

5ETFs and institutions

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $201 million on Nov 9, a third straight day of outflows: IBIT −$213.2 million, ARKB −$9.9 million, with only MSBT taking in money (+$22.1 million).Bloomingbit
  • Over Nov 2⁠–⁠6 the funds lost $1.28 billion (IBIT $1.21 billion); year-to-date net flows stood at −$914 million as of Nov 6.The Block
  • Miner MARA has sold 13,597 BTC for about $1.1 billion since late September — roughly 40% of its stack — and plans to sell more to fund AI data centers.CoinDesk
4 more facts
  • MARA reported Q3 net income of $632 million, but $885 million of that was a paper gain on Bitcoin; revenue fell 35% to $164 million.CoinDesk
  • Strategy bought 1,036 BTC for $81.9 million over Nov 2⁠–⁠8 and now holds 850,364 BTC at an average $75,456 — about 2% above the price at publication.The Block
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of supply), worth about $97 billion; after Strategy the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One (43,514) and Strive (43,153).CoinGecko
  • Ether ETFs lost $365 million over Nov 2⁠–⁠6, their sixth straight week of outflows.Startupfortune

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 32 (Fear), versus 29 yesterday, 26 a week ago and 61 a month ago; the one-year average is 31.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature reads 28 out of 100: across eight cycle metrics the market is in the cold zone, where buying has historically beaten selling.CoinLab
  • MVRV is 1.42 (as of Nov 2), the 33rd historical percentile: the average holder is about 42% in profit.Coinmetrics
5 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis is about $75,757 (as of Nov 3): price is 2.4% below it, so recent buyers are underwater and tend to sell into rallies.Bgeometrics
  • Long-term holders cut balances by 248,000 BTC (about $17.4 billion) in Q3, nearly three times what ETFs bought over the same stretch.21shares
  • Stablecoin supply is $293.7 billion, down 1.6% in a week and 4.6% ($14.1 billion) in 30 days: no fresh money is coming in.Defillama
  • Galaxy notes that in the 2011⁠–⁠12 and 2019⁠–⁠20 bear markets Bitcoin also lost the 50-week average after first reclaiming it, yet the prior weekly-close low held; this cycle's low is $59,517 (Jun 28).The Block
  • Polymarket's November odds (pre-CPI): 40.5% for a touch of $80,000, 75.5% for $72,500 and 51.5% for $70,000 — bettors lean toward further downside.Polymarket

7Mining

  • Hashrate is about 966 EH/s; difficulty is 148.4 T.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is due around Nov 13 (441 blocks left, 78% through the epoch), estimated at −6.9% as miners unplug after the price drop; the last one was +5.5%.mempool.space
  • Hashprice was $32.86 per PH/s per day as of Nov 2 (down 8.7% on the week), below its 30-day average of $37.49, and miner revenue has fallen further since the weekend drop.Hashrateindex
3 more facts
  • MARA is pivoting to AI: it is closing the purchase of the 485 MW Long Ridge gas plant and expects two data-center leases by year-end.CoinDesk
  • Fees are at rock bottom: 3 sat/vB for fast confirmation and 1 sat/vB within an hour.mempool.space
  • Block height is 975,303, with 74,697 blocks to the halving (expected around April 2028).mempool.space

8Macro

  • October CPI came in hot: +0.4% month over month vs. +0.3% expected (September +0.6%), with core at +0.3% vs. +0.2%; there is no year-over-year figure because of data lost in the 2025 shutdown.Bloomingbit
  • S&P 500 futures fell after the print; before it they were already down 0.5%, and Nasdaq-100 futures down 1.2% on Nvidia's troubles.CNBC
  • The 2-year Treasury yield had already climbed more than 7 bp to 4.62% before CPI, and the 10-year rose to 4.89%: yields remain near their highs.CNBC
7 more facts
  • Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is leaning toward a December hike even if inflation cooled, and that a hot reading could justify a 50 bp move.CoinDesk
  • The Fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00%; CME FedWatch prices a 25 bp hike on Dec 9 to 4.00⁠–⁠4.25%. Polymarket before CPI: 87.5% for +25 bp, 7.2% for +50 bp or more, 6.5% for no change.Polymarket
  • On Monday the S&P 500 rose 2.35% to 7,549.94, its best day since Apr 8, and the Nasdaq gained 2.74% to 25,253; Bitcoin barely joined the rebound.Mymotherlode
  • Nvidia fell 4.27% to $178.67 on Monday on a board probe involving Jensen Huang, even as the semiconductor index jumped 6.85%.Fool
  • WTI crude is near $84 (down 2% in a day) and Brent below $90; gold lost more than 1% to under $4,100; the dollar index is 101.8 and the VIX 20.2.CoinDesk
  • Anthropic withdrew IPO terms circulated to bankers — about 867 million shares at $70⁠–⁠80 — calling them inaccurate and promising an updated filing.CoinDesk
  • Still ahead this week: Veterans Day on Wednesday (bond market closed), PPI on Nov 13, Fed minutes on Nov 18 and PCE on Nov 25.CoinDesk

9Regulation and events

  • Iran told the US to stop "fake news" about talks and accept seven conditions to end the war: a Strait of Hormuz deal is not close.Investinglive
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren pledged closer scrutiny of prediction markets and the Trump family's crypto ventures.The Block
  • After the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, the SEC and CFTC signed a memorandum of understanding on Nov 3 and are writing crypto rules without legislation.Mondovisione
6 more facts
  • The SEC sent the White House draft rules for crypto broker-dealers covering capital and customer-asset custody.Crypto Briefing
  • The NYSE plans to settle tokenized stocks on Avalanche as part of its planned 24/7 market.The Block
  • Coinbase and PNC expanded their partnership so the bank's corporate clients can make USDC payments.The Block
  • From Nov 12 the European Banking Authority takes over supervision of the USDC issuer's own funds, reserves and liquidity.CoinDesk
  • Elliptic says launderers behind the Binance hack (about $6.3⁠–⁠6.4 billion since Oct 29) are minting homemade memecoins to move stolen funds.The Block
  • CoreWeave, Bitdeer and eToro report after today's US close; Nvidia reports in just over a week.CoinDesk

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
47
Base case came true
79%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
96%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 9, 2026 · overnight$74,578$74,786 (+0.0%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 9, 2026 · morning, pre-market$74,772$74,396 (-0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 8, 2026 · overnight$75,878$74,818 (-1.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 8, 2026 · morning$76,064$74,920 (-1.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 7, 2026 · overnight$76,023$75,866 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 7, 2026 · morning$75,902$75,980 (+0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · overnight$75,491$75,907 (+0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · morning, pre-market$75,650$75,900 (-0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 5, 2026 · overnight$80,490$75,765 (-5.9%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-market$79,673$76,040 (-4.5%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
November 4, 2026 · overnight$77,409$80,520 (+4.0%) Sideways, 45%Breakoutno
November 4, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,447$79,662 (+1.7%) Sideways, 47%Breakoutno
November 3, 2026 · overnight$76,719$77,390 (+0.6%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 3, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,676$78,298 (+1.1%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 2, 2026 · overnight$78,370$76,944 (-1.9%) Sideways, 52%Pullbackno
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,200$77,428 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 1, 2026 · morning$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

November 10, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 10, 2026 · overnightNovember 9, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 9, 2026 · overnightNovember 8, 2026 · morningNovember 8, 2026 · overnightNovember 7, 2026 · morningNovember 7, 2026 · overnightNovember 6, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 6, 2026 · overnightNovember 5, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 5, 2026 · overnightNovember 4, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 4, 2026 · overnightNovember 3, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 3, 2026 · overnightNovember 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morningOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morningOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morningOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight