This is the archived brief for October 28, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Bitcoin today, October 28, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Oct 28, 1:58 AM ET · price at release $80,947Two briefs a day: overnight at 1:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 1:30 AM ET Wednesday, Bitcoin traded at $80,947: +1.4% on the day and −3.7% on the week.

On Oct 27 the price slipped below $80,000 during the US morning but recovered by the US close, and through the Asian session it held above the 50-day EMA while the Kospi rallied 5% and US consumer confidence printed 91.7 against a forecast of 81.
The base case for the next 24 hours is a $79,500⁠–⁠82,000 range into the Fed decision at 2:00 PM ET: 90⁠–⁠95% of the market expects a pause, Polymarket's median for Thursday is $80,953, and the Oct 28⁠–⁠29 expiries with max pain at $80,000 pin the price near the middle of the band.
The main risk is Kevin Warsh's tone at the 2:30 PM ET press conference and hawkish dissents: a firm signal of a December hike, with 67% of accounts long, could knock the price back to $79,200 and toward the $78,000 max pain of the week's main expiry.

Price when the brief was released

$80,947

Oct 28, 1:58 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 28, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case

Sideways

$79,500–$82,000

50%

28%

22%

Resistance

$81,300
$82,240
$84,400

Support

$79,220
$78,000
$76,570

Sideways · 50%

$79,500–$82,000

The Fed is almost certain to pause (90⁠–⁠95% per FedWatch and Polymarket), and with no new dot plot Warsh is unlikely to give the market a reason for a sharp move. Polymarket's median for Thursday is $80,953, and its 25th–75th percentile range of $79,625⁠–⁠82,241 nearly matches our band. The Oct 28 and 29 expiries with max pain at $80,000 and Friday's main $10.9 billion expiry with max pain at $78,000 pull the price toward the center; DVOL of 37.5 implies an expected move of only ±$1,600. The squeeze index is 1 out of 10 and open interest is down 1.3% on the week: there is no large leverage to fuel a sharp move. The 20-day EMA at $81,758 and the ETF buyers' entry price of $81,700 cap the upside, while the 50-day EMA at $80,810 and Saturday's low of $79,221 hold the downside.

Pullback · 28%

$77,500–$79,500

The Fed decision is the main risk of the day: JPMorgan expects at least two dissents in favor of a hike, the market already prices a 73⁠–⁠80% chance of a December hike, and a hard-line tone from Warsh would lift yields and the dollar (DXY near a two-week high). 67% of Binance accounts are long, Hyperliquid whales are net short for the first time since June, takers are selling (0.96) and options skew favors puts. A break of $79,221 would open the way to the main expiry's max pain at $78,000; Polymarket gives 21.5% odds of a touch of $77,500 in October. Added pressure comes from October ETF outflows (−$202 million) and Strategy's pause, plus the risk of disappointment in the Alphabet and Microsoft reports after the close.

Breakout · 22%

$82,000–$84,500

A Fed pause with soft wording ('no need to rush' from Williams and Jefferson) would lift the fear of December; Polymarket gives 27.5% odds of a price above $82,000 by Thursday. In favor of upside: a third day of ETF inflows (IBIT $110 million, FBTC $24.5 million preliminary), the Galaxy report on an accumulation phase, the Kospi +5% and better-than-expected consumer confidence, fractals in the two-week and six-month windows ending higher in 5 of 6 cases, and a narrowing MACD histogram. It needs a daily close above the 20-day EMA at $81,758; beyond that, the targets are $82,240 (the top of the Polymarket range) and the weekly high of $84,377. Against it: long-term holder selling and the Glassnode wall of orders at $86,500⁠–⁠87,500.

What to watch today

Deribit expiry today at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET): 4,852 BTC with max pain at $80,000
The US open at 9:30 AM ET and the reaction of chip stocks to the Kospi +5%
Fed decision at 2:00 PM ET (pause priced at 90⁠–⁠95%) and Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET: the number of dissents and hints about December
Alphabet (call at 4:30 PM ET) and Microsoft (5:30 PM ET) earnings: AI capex and the Nasdaq reaction
Holding Saturday's low of $79,221 and a daily close above the 20-day EMA at $81,758
Bitcoin ETF flows for Oct 27 and 28 after the US close
Iran talks and Brent near $114; daily candle close at 00:00 UTC (8:00 PM ET)
Thursday: GDP and PCE at 8:30 AM ET, difficulty adjustment on Oct 29; Friday, the main $10.9 billion expiry at 4:00 AM ET

This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

As of 1:30 AM ET Wednesday, Bitcoin traded at $80,947: +1.4% on the day, −3.7% on the week and −3.1% on the month; it was the first green candle after three straight down days.Binance
The 24-hour range was $79,506⁠–⁠81,300: the price fell below $80,000 during the US morning on Oct 27, recovered by the evening and held above that level through the Asian session.Binance
Saturday's low of $79,221 remains the low of both the week and the month; the weekly high is $84,377, the monthly high $87,220 and the 90-day high $87,396.Binance

5 more facts

Binance spot turnover over 24 hours was 12,610 BTC ($1.01 billion); per CoinDesk, market-wide crypto futures volume rose 18% to $152 billion.CoinDesk
Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.63 trillion with dominance at 59.4%, and the total crypto market at $2.73 trillion; the price was 35.9% below the all-time high of $126,080 set on Oct 6, 2025.CoinGecko
In euros Bitcoin traded at €72,709 and in pounds at £60,827; in dollar terms the coin is down 29.0% over the past year.CoinGecko
The Coinbase premium to Binance was −0.16% in raw prices, but adjusted for the USDT rate (0.9985) the gap all but disappears: US demand stood out neither to the upside nor the downside.Coinbase
Ether traded at $2,345 by the evening of Oct 27 (+1.1% on the day, −3.7% on the week) and Solana at $101 (−4.6% on the week); CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index rose to 57 out of 100 from 53.Fool

2Technical analysis

Daily RSI(14) read 45.7 versus 40.4 a day earlier: back at mid-scale, with no oversold reading.Binance
The daily MACD (−446) remains below its signal line (−193), but the histogram narrowed to −253 from −380: downside momentum is fading, though there is no reversal yet.Binance
The price moved back just above the 50-day EMA ($80,810) and approached the 20-day EMA ($81,758): a daily close above $81,800 would relieve the pressure, while a rejection would send it back toward $79,200.Binance

7 more facts

The 200-day EMA ($76,570) and the 50-week average ($75,827) sit well below, and the golden cross from Sep 14 remains intact: by the moving averages, the medium-term trend is still up.Binance
The Mayer Multiple is 1.11 (price 11% above the 200-day SMA at $73,069), the 59th percentile historically; the 200-week average at $67,283 leaves a 20.3% cushion.CoinLab
Pi Cycle Top reads 0.49: the 111-day average ($74,642) is half the doubled 350-day average ($152,522), so a cycle-top signal is far away.CoinLab
Fractals: in the two-week window, 5 of 6 similar historical stretches ended higher (median +2.6%), likewise 5 of 6 in the six-month window (median +5.9%), but only 2 of 6 in the 50-day window (median −1.5%).CoinLab
Polymarket for Oct 29 at 12:00 PM ET puts the median price at $80,953 with a $79,625⁠–⁠82,241 range (25th–75th percentiles): the odds of holding above $80,000 are 70.5%, above $82,000 27.5% and above $84,000 6.8%. Our base-case band matches this range.Polymarket
Nearest resistance sits at $81,300 (the 24-hour high) and $81,760 (20-day EMA), then $82,240 and $84,400; support lies at $80,000, $79,221 and $78,000 (max pain of the main expiry).Binance
Implied volatility (DVOL) of 37.5 implies an expected daily move of about ±2.0% (±$1,600): from the time of publication, that is a one-sigma band of roughly $79,350⁠–⁠82,550.Deribit

3Derivatives

Funding on Binance was +0.0056% per 8 hours (6.2% annualized), and +0.01% (11%) on Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid: longs are paying about one and a half times the monthly average (+0.0039%), but the overheating has come off its peak.Binance
BTC open interest on Binance stood at 96,084 BTC ($7.77 billion): +0.5% on the day and −1.3% on the week, with almost no new leverage being added ahead of the Fed.Binance
67.4% of Binance accounts are long (a ratio of 2.06 versus 2.28 a day earlier), with top traders at 1.93: the long skew narrowed slightly, but the crowd is still positioned for a bounce.Binance

5 more facts

The taker buy/sell ratio was 0.96: market sell orders slightly outweigh buys; CoinDesk recorded near parity of 49.5% to 50.5% on Oct 27.CoinDesk
Market-wide liquidations over 24 hours totaled about $149 million, of which $100 million were shorts and $49 million longs; in BTC, $25.8 million of shorts and $8.3 million of longs were closed out.Chaincatcher
Per CoinDesk, liquidations over the prior 24 hours (through Oct 27) fell 13% to $133 million while open interest rose 0.95%: the market is neither being shaken out nor deleveraging.CoinDesk
The CoinLab squeeze index reads 1 out of 10: across eight metrics (funding, basis, long/short, takers, skew, liquidations, OI) there is no setup for a sharp move in either direction.CoinLab
The CoinLab market temperature is 36 out of 100 (MVRV, Mayer, 200WMA, Pi Cycle, Fear & Greed, funding, RSI): the market sits closer to the cold zone than to overheating.CoinLab

4Options

DVOL stood at 37.5 points versus 36.9 a week ago: even on Fed decision day, implied volatility barely rose.Deribit
The put/call ratio by open interest is 0.60; total open interest on Deribit is 396,934 BTC (about $32.1 billion).Deribit
Today at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET), 4,852 BTC expire with max pain at $80,000 and puts and calls at parity (0.98); on Oct 29 another 2,136 BTC expire with the same max pain and a put tilt (1.06).Deribit

5 more facts

The year's main expiry comes on Oct 30 at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET): 135,199 BTC (about $10.9 billion, a third of open interest) with max pain at $78,000 and a put/call ratio of 0.54.Deribit
The largest position for Oct 30 is the $95,000 calls, roughly 24,000 BTC (per a Crypto Briefing snapshot from Oct 8): at $81,000 they expire worthless, which strengthens the pull of max pain.Crypto Briefing
The most traded contract over 24 hours, per CoinDesk, was the $72,000 put expiring Dec 25; 25-delta skew favors puts across all tenors: downside protection is still being bought.CoinDesk
The Dec 25 expiry is comparable to October's, at 135,431 BTC with max pain at $75,000; Nov 27 holds 39,591 BTC with max pain at $81,000.Deribit
The expected four-day move implied by volatility, per a FinanceFeeds estimate from Oct 26, is about $2,600⁠–⁠2,700 in either direction, which covers both the Fed and the expiry.Financefeeds

5ETFs and institutions

On Oct 26, US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $110.34 million, with the entire inflow going to BlackRock's IBIT while the other 11 funds sat at zero; it was the first positive day after two days of outflows totaling $773.5 million.Tokenpost
For Oct 27 there is only a preliminary Farside figure: +$24.5 million, all in Fidelity's FBTC, with no data yet for the other funds; the day's total will firm up once all issuers report.Farside
Month-to-date through Oct 26, the funds are down roughly $202 million; the average entry price of ETF buyers, per James Seyffart of Bloomberg Intelligence, is around $81,700, so the market is still slightly below it.Co

6 more facts

Strategy bought no Bitcoin from Oct 19 to 25, breaking a five-week streak: it holds 848,517 BTC at an average of $75,446 (about $64 billion including fees); instead of coins, the company repurchased 2.07 million STRC preferred shares for $204.9 million.SEC
Strategy's reserves as of Oct 25 were $4.83 billion in its dollar reserve and $242.4 million in cash; MSTR shares fell 6.9% last week to $146.02, and MSCI is preparing rules against 'non-operating' companies that threaten index exclusion.The Block
Public companies hold 1,312,578 BTC ($106.1 billion, 6.25% of supply) across 181 corporate treasuries: behind Strategy come Metaplanet (44,000), Twenty One Capital (43,514), Strive (43,000) and MARA (35,577).CoinGecko
Galaxy Research declared that the bear market ended in June and an accumulation phase is under way: the price has closed above the 50-week average for five straight weeks after 44 weeks below it, and ETFs have added about 87,000 BTC since the June low; a weekly close below $76,540 would invalidate the call.Decrypt
Ether ETFs lost $88.58 million on Oct 26, Solana funds $8.23 million and XRP funds $3.61 million: money is returning only to Bitcoin.X
Robinhood earned $120 million from crypto in the third quarter (−55% year over year) on $50 billion of volume (−38%); event contracts brought in $173 million and overtook crypto for the first time, while earnings per share came in at $0.51 against an expected $0.55.Stocktitan

6Sentiment and on-chain

The Fear & Greed index read 51 ('neutral') versus 48 a day earlier, 63 a week ago and 74 a month ago; the one-year average is 31.alternative.me
MVRV as of Oct 27 was 1.49, the 39th percentile historically: the average holder is up 49%, far from the overheating zone above 2.5.Coinmetrics
The short-term holder cost basis was $74,865 as of Oct 21: the market is 8.1% above it, so the most recent buyers are in profit on average.Bgeometrics

6 more facts

Per Glassnode, the share of short-term holder supply in profit fell to about 70% as of Oct 26 from nearly 100% in late September; dense sell orders sit in the $86,500⁠–⁠87,500 zone.Crypto Briefing
Long-term holders cut their holdings by 345,000 BTC between Jul 30 and Oct 19 (from 16.41 to 16.06 million), and by 195,000 BTC over 30 days, but the pace is slowing: selling occurred on 10 of the last 15 days versus 13 of 15 at the start of the month, note CryptoQuant analysts Axel Adler Jr. and Darkfost.Crypto Briefing
Per Glassnode, whales on Hyperliquid flipped to a net short on Bitcoin for the first time since the June rally: large leveraged players are betting against a rebound.Fool
Exchange reserves, per CryptoQuant, are around 2.68 million BTC, 130,000 below February's 2.8 million; on Oct 26 short-term holders moved 9,990 BTC to Binance at a loss.CryptoQuant
Stablecoins total $303.2 billion: −0.7% on the week and −$5.0 billion on the month, so no fresh money is arriving.Defillama
Polymarket for October: a touch of $82,500 before month-end is priced at 55.5% and $85,000 at 17.5%; a drop to $77,500 at 21.5% and to $75,000 at 5.5%.Polymarket

7Mining

Hashrate stood at 1,073 EH/s and difficulty at 140.58 trillion; 88.9% of the epoch is complete, with 223 blocks left until the adjustment.mempool.space
The difficulty adjustment is expected on Oct 29 with a projected +6.5% after +5.9% in the previous epoch: capacity keeps growing despite a price 36% below the peak.mempool.space
Fees are at the floor, 1 sat/vB for both next-block and within-the-hour confirmation: the network is idle, with no demand for block space.mempool.space

2 more facts

Block height is 973,505, with 76,495 blocks to the halving, expected on Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space
MARA Holdings holds 35,577 BTC and remains the largest miner-holder; per The Block, Strategy owns more than 4% of total Bitcoin supply.The Block

8Macro

On Oct 27 the S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,722.60, the Nasdaq 1.18% to 26,477.81 and the Dow to 52,377.57; the index sits 1.2% from its high, with chips leading after Anthropic's IPO filing, while the equal-weight S&P barely moved.247wallst
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for October came in at 91.7 versus 84.2 in September and a forecast of about 81: the first rise in four months, with the present situation index at 120.4 and expectations at 72.6; cheaper fuel helped.Conference-board
In Asia on Wednesday, the Kospi gained as much as 5.6% (5,952) on SK hynix's record operating profit of 83.3 trillion won, the Nikkei 1.3% to 64,095 and MSCI Asia ex-Japan 0.85%; US and European futures were little changed.Brecorder

9 more facts

The Fed decision is due today at 2:00 PM ET, with Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET; the rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% after September's hike, the first since 2023, and there will be no new dot plot at this meeting.CNBC
The market expects a pause: CME FedWatch gives about 90⁠–⁠93% odds of a hold and Polymarket 95.6%; for December, FedWatch prices a 73⁠–⁠80% chance of a hike and Polymarket 76.5%.Kiplinger
JPMorgan expects at least two hawkish dissents in favor of a hike; Warsh declines to signal future moves ('We're committed to a discipline, not to a decision'), and analyst Nadim Zidan warns that a hard-line tone would test support at $79,000.Yahoo Finance
The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.99% (−1 bp on the day, −13 bp on the week) and the 2-year 4.70% (+2 bp); DXY stood at 102.41 near a two-week high, and USD/JPY at 157.9.Yahoo Finance
Oil: WTI at $101.37 (+1.5% on the day, +4.3% on the week); Brent closed Oct 27 at $113.88 (−1.7%) and traded near $114.42 in the Asian morning; talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and Iran in Tehran will continue, Oman speaks of a plan to restore shipping through Hormuz, and UBS sees Brent near $110 through year-end.Nationthailand
Gold traded at $4,050 (−0.6% on the day, −2.4% on the week) and the VIX at 17.5 (−4.7%): equity-market fear ahead of the Fed is easing, and safe havens are not rallying.Yahoo Finance
Alphabet (call at 4:30 PM ET) and Microsoft (5:30 PM ET) report after today's close: the market is watching capex, about $190 billion for Microsoft in 2026 and $195⁠–⁠205 billion for Alphabet; Amazon and Apple report Thursday.Startupfortune
Thursday at 8:30 AM ET brings the first estimate of third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation, the next test for rates after the Fed decision; September CPI was 3.7% year over year.Fedratecalc
Bitcoin has ignored the AI-stock rally for a second day: on Oct 27 the Kospi rose 3.1% while BTC fell below $80,000; in October the correlation with the Nasdaq has worked only to the downside.CoinDesk

9Regulation and events

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at Ripple Swell on Oct 27, called the stalling of the CLARITY Act a setback and pledged to close the gaps through SEC and CFTC rules; more than 90% of stablecoins, he said, are dollar-denominated and hold reserves in Treasuries.CoinDesk
The CLARITY Act failed a procedural vote on Sep 15 (49 to 50, with 60 needed) over disputes about officials' ethics and stablecoin yield; Congress will return to it after the Nov 3 elections, and agency rules can be challenged in court.Investinglive
The SEC proposed its Regulation Crypto Assets rules on Aug 18 and launched an 'innovation exemption' for tokenized-securities venues on Sep 17; the CFTC's crypto-market rules are under review at the White House.Paulhastings

4 more facts

Regulators missed the GENIUS Act stablecoin deadline (Jul 18, 2026); the OCC promises final rules in November 2026.Investinglive
Calendar for the next 24 hours: Deribit expiry at 4:00 AM ET (4,852 BTC), the US open at 9:30 AM ET, the Fed decision at 2:00 PM ET and press conference at 2:30 PM ET, Alphabet and Microsoft earnings after 4:00 PM ET, and the daily candle close at 8:00 PM ET.CNBC
Later in the week: the difficulty adjustment on Oct 29, GDP and PCE on Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, the main $10.9 billion expiry on Friday, Oct 30 at 4:00 AM ET, and the US midterm elections on Nov 3.Deribit
Crypto casino Gamdom received a $15 million Bitcoin ransom demand after a hack, the latest incident in a string that includes Bitget ($352 million in September) and Liquid Network ($320 million).Bitcoin.com

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast

Base case came true

88%

the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range

At least one scenario right

100%

the close landed inside one of the three ranges

Day	Morning price	Close	Base case	Came true	Hit
October 27, 2026 · overnight	$79,789	$80,994 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · overnight	$80,172	$79,759 (-0.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,516	$79,910 (-0.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · overnight	$80,824	$80,134 (-1.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,350	$80,416 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,776	$80,581 (+0.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 23, 2026	$81,637	$81,189 (-0.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 22, 2026	$82,932	$81,416 (-3.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 21, 2026	$82,892	$84,093 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 20, 2026	$81,990	$83,028 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 19, 2026	$82,886	$81,938 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 18, 2026	$81,746	$82,116 (+0.8%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 17, 2026	$81,615	$81,491 (-0.1%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 16, 2026	$82,202	$81,616 (-0.8%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 15, 2026	$81,108	$82,246 (+0.7%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 14, 2026	$83,610	$81,682 (-1.8%)	Sideways, 45%	Pullback	no
October 13, 2026	$83,728	$83,169 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 12, 2026	$84,017	$81,850 (-2.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Pullback	no
October 11, 2026	$83,078	$83,773 (+0.9%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 10, 2026	$82,669	$82,988 (+0.4%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 9, 2026	$82,374	$82,636 (+1.1%)	Sideways, 48%	Sideways	yes
October 8, 2026	$82,927	$81,754 (-1.9%)	Sideways, 47%	Pullback	no
October 7, 2026	$84,194	$83,322 (-2.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 6, 2026	$85,674	$85,550 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 60%	Sideways	yes

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