This is the archived brief for October 28, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Bitcoin on October 28, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Oct 28, 8:50 AM ET · price at release $80,831Two briefs a day: overnight at 1:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:45 AM ET Wednesday, 45 minutes ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded at $80,831: up 0.6% on the day and down 3.9% on the week; overnight in Asia it rose as high as $81,823 on a 6.6% Kospi rally but drifted back toward $80,800 during the European session.

The 8:30 AM ET data were second-tier: the September goods trade deficit widened to $134.9 billion against a forecast of about $130 billion, and Bitcoin did not react.
Our base case for the next 24 hours is a sideways range of $79,500⁠–⁠82,200 around the Fed decision at 2:00 PM ET: 90⁠–⁠95% of the market expects a pause, the Polymarket median for Thursday is $80,957, and Friday's $10.9 billion expiry with max pain at $78,000 keeps the price in the lower half of the range.
The main risk is Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET and up to three possible hawkish dissents: a firm signal of a December hike, with 67% of accounts long and Hyperliquid whales net short, could drag the price to $79,200 or lower.

Price when the brief was released

$80,831

Oct 28, 8:50 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 28, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case

Sideways

$79,500–$82,200

52%

28%

20%

Resistance

$81,800
$82,500
$84,400

Support

$80,000
$79,200
$78,000

Sideways · 52%

$79,500–$82,200

The Fed will almost certainly pause (90⁠–⁠95% per FedWatch and Polymarket), there are no new projections or dot plot, and Warsh avoids explicit guidance — few reasons for a sharp move. The Polymarket median for Thursday at $80,957 and the interquartile range of $79,722⁠–⁠82,097 almost coincide with our range, as do the Bollinger Bands at $79,826⁠–⁠81,941. Open interest is down 3.2% on the week, the squeeze index is at −10, and DVOL at 37.6 implies a move of only ±$1,600; Friday's $10.9 billion expiry with max pain at $78,000 and the nearer max pains at $80,000⁠–⁠81,000 pull the price toward the center. The 20-day EMA at $81,760 and the overnight high of $81,823 cap the upside; the 50-day EMA at $80,811 and the day's low of $79,890 hold the downside.

Pullback · 28%

$77,500–$79,500

Three hawkish dissents, or a refusal by Warsh to cool December expectations, would lift the dollar and yields (the 10-year is already at 5%), while Bitcoin's inverse correlation with the DXY sits at a record high. With 67% of accounts long and Hyperliquid whales net short ($1.45 billion), a break of $79,900 would trigger long liquidations toward the weekly low of $79,221 and max pain at $78,000. Added pressure: 6,168 BTC moved to Coinbase Prime, retail is bringing coins to Binance at the fastest pace in six months, Strategy has paused its purchases, and oil above $115 is lifting inflation expectations. Below $78,000, the 200-day EMA at $76,570 is the floor of this scenario.

Breakout · 20%

$82,200–$84,500

A soft tone from Warsh (a pause as "calibration", with no hint of acceleration) and a unanimous decision would turn the dollar lower and remove the market's main fear. The fuel is there: Hyperliquid whales net short and 75% of the past day's liquidations being shorts create squeeze risk, the 14,942 BTC exchange outflow is the largest in five weeks, and ETFs have seen two straight days of inflows ($286 million). Strong Microsoft and Alphabet results after the close would support the Nasdaq and risk assets. The targets are the $81,400 three-day close level, the 20-day EMA at $81,760, then $82,500 and the upper Bollinger Band at $84,056.

What to watch today

9:30 AM ET — US opening bell, reaction to the Kospi +6.6% and Brent above $115
2:00 PM ET — Fed decision on the 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% rate and the number of dissents in favor of a hike
2:30 PM ET — Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference: stance on a December hike (84% per FedWatch)
After 4:00 PM ET — Microsoft and Alphabet earnings, Nasdaq reaction
Oct 29, 8:30 AM ET — first estimate of Q3 US GDP, September PCE, jobless claims
Oct 30, 4:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC) — $10.9 billion Deribit options expiry with max pain at $78,000
What happens to the 6,168 BTC on Coinbase Prime and the Hyperliquid whales' net short ($1.45 billion)
Iran and Saudi Arabia headlines, oil, and the 10-year yield near 5%

This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

As of 8:45 AM ET Wednesday, 45 minutes ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded at $80,831: up 0.6% on the day, down 3.9% on the week and down 3.1% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $79,890⁠–⁠81,823, with Binance spot volume of about $1.0 billion.Binance
The Asian session closed higher: the Kospi gained 6.6% to 6,012 after SK Hynix posted a record operating profit (83.3 trillion won), and Bitcoin rode the wave to $81,823 but could not hold the level.Ksat
Europe traded weaker: Stoxx 600 −0.2%, FTSE 100 −0.3%, with Brent above $115 weighing on cyclicals; S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3⁠–⁠0.4% ahead of the 9:30 AM ET open.Financialjuice

5 more facts

Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.63 trillion with dominance at 59.5%; the total crypto market was $2.73 trillion (−1.3% on the day), so altcoins are losing more than Bitcoin.CoinGecko
The price sat 35.9% below the all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025); the 90-day low of $62,275 is almost 23% below where Bitcoin traded at the time of the report.CoinGecko
The Coinbase premium was near zero at 8:30 AM ET (−0.02%, or −$18 versus Binance in dollar terms); analysts note the premium stayed negative through October, so US spot demand is not outpacing offshore demand.Coinbase
Altcoins: ETH around $2,374 (−3.7% on the week), XRP $1.33, SOL around $101; on Oct 27 Zcash stood out with a 6% daily gain.FXStreet
Stablecoins: total market cap $303.2 billion, down 0.7% on the week and down $5.0 billion (−1.6%) over 30 days, so the inflow of fresh money into the market has stalled.Defillama

2Technical analysis

Daily RSI(14) at 45.8 is neutral territory with no oversold reading; MACD at −445 sits below the signal line (−193) with a histogram of −252, so momentum remains bearish.Binance
The price is pinned between the 20-day EMA at $81,760 (resistance) and the 50-day EMA at $80,811 (support): a daily close above $81,800 would restore the short-term uptrend, while a break below $80,800 opens the way to $79,200.Binance
The 200-day EMA at $76,570 and the 50-week moving average at $75,827 are the key long-term supports; the golden cross from Sept 14 remains intact.Binance

7 more facts

The weekly range of $79,221⁠–⁠84,377 and the 30-day high of $87,220: as long as the price holds below $84,400, this is a correction within September's advance, not a new uptrend.Binance
CryptoQuant on-chain levels as of Oct 27: the 365-day moving average at $77,585, the traders' realized price at $74,041 and the 200-day moving average at $73,028; the Bull Score index fell from 90 to 60 over October.Crypto
Rekt Capital sees $81,400 as the key three-day close: above it, the targets are $84,200 and $86,000; below it, supports lie at $80,000, $78,000 and $76,000.Crypto
Daily Bollinger Bands: midline $81,941, upper band $84,056, lower band $79,826 — the 24-hour envelope almost matches our base case.FXStreet
CoinLab fractals: six similar two-week stretches of history (correlation of 0.82 or higher) produced gains in five of six cases, with a median of +2.6% over the following two weeks; on a six-month horizon 5 of 6 analogs also went up (median +5.9%), but the 50-day window gives a median of −1.5%.CoinLab
Our base-case range of $79,500⁠–⁠82,200 almost coincides with the betting market: the Polymarket median for Oct 29 is $80,957, the interquartile range $79,722⁠–⁠82,097, and the chance of closing above the report price is 50.1% — the market sees no direction until the Fed decision.Polymarket
The Mayer Multiple at 1.11 (59th percentile of history), the price 20.3% above the 200-week moving average of $67,283, Pi Cycle at 0.49 — no overheating on cycle metrics.CoinLab

3Derivatives

Open interest in Binance BTCUSDT perpetuals stood at $7.75 billion (95,900 BTC): flat on the day (+0.05%) and down 3.2% on the week — no new leverage is entering the market.Binance
Binance funding at 0.0059% per 8 hours (about 6.5% annualized) against a 30-day average of 0.004%; Bybit 0.0073%, OKX and Hyperliquid 0.01% each (11% annualized) — longs are paying moderately, with no overheating.Binance
The Binance long/short ratio by accounts is 2.06 (67.4% of accounts long), 1.93 among top traders; takers are selling slightly more than they buy (0.96) — the crowd is long, the big players are cautious.Binance

4 more facts

Hyperliquid whales turned net short on Bitcoin for the first time since March: $1.45 billion in shorts against $1.22 billion in longs (54.5% short); per Glassnode, this is either positioning for a deeper correction or fuel for a squeeze on a bounce.Tradingview
Liquidations over the 24 hours to the morning of Oct 28 totaled about $123⁠–⁠149 million market-wide, roughly $100 million of it shorts; in Bitcoin, $25.8 million of shorts versus $8.3 million of longs — the bounce above $80,000 was largely a short squeeze.CoinGlass
By Mitrade's count about 75% of the past day's liquidations were short positions: the move to $80,700 is being called short covering rather than fresh buying.Mitrade
CoinLab squeeze index at −10 on a ±100 scale: futures basis −0.05% (slight backwardation), options skew −2.9 toward puts, liquidations mostly shorts — few conditions for a sharp move in either direction.CoinLab

4Options

The week's main expiry is Friday, Oct 30, at 08:00 UTC: 135,533 BTC (about $10.9 billion, 35% of total open interest) expire on Deribit with max pain at $78,000 and a put/call ratio of 0.53.Deribit
Total Deribit options open interest is 395,855 BTC ($32.0 billion), put/call 0.59; for the nearest expiries on Oct 29 and Oct 31, max pain sits at $80,000 and $81,000.Deribit
DVOL at 37.6 versus 36.9 a week ago: the implied daily move is about ±2% (roughly ±$1,600) — the options market is not pricing a sharp reaction to the Fed.Deribit

4 more facts

The Dec 25 expiry holds 135,478 BTC with max pain at $75,000; the Mar 26, 2027 quarterly holds 42,896 BTC with max pain at $76,000: far-dated strikes remain skewed lower.Deribit
CryptoQuant notes that the calls in Friday's expiry are concentrated at the $95,000 strike — far from the market — so dealer-hedging pressure on the price is closer to $78,000⁠–⁠80,000.CryptoQuant
A large post-election upside bet: on Oct 20 a wallet on Derive bought 800 $90,000 calls expiring Nov 6 (notional about $68 million), funding them by selling 400 $90,000 calls for Oct 30 and 400 $100,000 calls for March 2027, for a net premium of about $940,000.Itechguides
Derive options-implied probabilities for Christmas: above $100,000 — 12% (9.7% a week ago), below $70,000 — 11% (was 15.6%); the 25-delta skew on Deribit remains negative, with puts pricier than calls.Itechguides

5ETFs and institutions

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $176.0 million on Oct 27, a second straight day of inflows: BlackRock's IBIT +$151.5 million, Fidelity's FBTC +$24.5 million, the other funds flat.Farside
The two-day inflow of $286.3 million on Oct 26⁠–⁠27 only partly offset the $773.5 million outflow of Oct 22⁠–⁠23, of which $635.6 million left in a single day on Oct 22.Financefeeds
Total spot Bitcoin ETF assets stand at $103.94 billion (6.4% of Bitcoin's market cap), with cumulative net inflows since launch of $57.47 billion; IBIT holds $65.5 billion, FBTC $14.2 billion, GBTC $10.1 billion.Tokenpost

6 more facts

Ether ETFs lost $60.2 million on Oct 27 (BlackRock's ETHA −$93.3 million, Fidelity's FETH +$28.6 million); month-to-date outflows of about $1.26 billion are close to the November 2025 record.FXStreet
Solana ETFs saw −$19.2 million on Oct 27 (Grayscale's GSOL), the largest daily outflow of October; across the BTC, ETH and SOL funds the day closed with a net inflow of $96.6 million.Financefeeds
Strategy did not buy Bitcoin for the first time in six weeks: no purchases over Oct 19⁠–⁠25, with $204.9 million spent instead on buying back STRC preferred shares; the balance sheet holds 848,517 BTC at an average cost of $75,446.SEC
Public companies and funds hold 1,312,578 BTC ($106 billion, 6.25% of supply) across 181 treasuries; Metaplanet, after selling 10,000 and buying 11,000 BTC in the third quarter, owns 44,000 BTC.CoinGecko
Three whales moved 6,168 BTC ($498.5 million) to Coinbase Prime overnight into Oct 28, and Arkham flagged another 438 BTC ($35.4 million); a sale is not confirmed, but such transfers often precede one.Crypto
Galaxy Digital, in a report dated Oct 27, called current levels an accumulation zone; GLXY shares rose 9.6% on the day.Fool

6Sentiment and on-chain

The Fear & Greed Index reads 51 ("Neutral") versus 48 yesterday, 63 a week ago and 74 a month ago: the euphoria of early October has faded.alternative.me
Net exchange outflows on Oct 27 were 14,942 BTC, the largest in five weeks per Santiment: coins are moving to cold storage, not to sale.Crypto
CryptoQuant (Darkfost, Oct 26): retail deposits to Binance are at a six-month high (30-day sum of $10.75 billion versus $5.5 billion in April), while whale deposits have fallen by a third since late August — small holders are selling, large ones are waiting.Yahoo Finance

5 more facts

Glassnode: the share of short-term holder supply in profit dropped from nearly 100% in late September to about 70%, and realized profit halved by Oct 21 — profit-taking has eased, but so has buying pressure.Glassnode
MVRV at 1.49 on Oct 27 (39th percentile of history): the average holder is 49% in profit, far from the overheated zone above 3.Coinmetrics
The short-term holder realized price is $74,865 (as of Oct 21): while the market trades above it, recent buyers are on average in profit and there is no capitulation pressure.Bgeometrics
CoinLab market temperature at 35 out of 100: by MVRV, the Mayer Multiple, the 200-week moving average and Pi Cycle, the market is closer to cold than to overheated.CoinLab
Polymarket for October: 67.5% odds of a dip to $80,000 and 54.5% of a rise to $82,500 before month-end — bettors expect both levels to be tested before Oct 31.Polymarket

7Mining

Hashrate around 1,068 EH/s, seven-day average 1,074 EH/s — 6.8% below the October 2025 record; the network has fully recovered from the summer dip to 899 EH/s.mempool.space
Difficulty at 140.58 T after a 5.92% increase on Oct 16; the next adjustment is expected on Oct 29, 178 blocks away, with an estimate of +6.5% — the third increase in a row.mempool.space
Hashprice around $36 per PH/s per day: down 11% on the month and against $47 a year earlier; with the price at $80,000 and difficulty rising, miner margins are being squeezed.Hashrateindex

2 more facts

Public miners have signed more than $70 billion in AI and HPC contracts, but CoinShares estimates the annual revenue from them at only about $1.1 billion so far; IREN will pull 23.2 EH/s out of mining by Dec 31.Yahoo Finance
Network fees are at the floor — 1 sat/vB for both fast and one-hour confirmation; block height 973,550, with 76,450 blocks to the halving (estimated Apr 11, 2028).mempool.space

8Macro

Today's 8:30 AM ET data were second-tier: the US goods trade deficit for September came in at $134.9 billion versus $132.1 billion in August and a forecast of about $130 billion; wholesale inventories +0.6% against +0.5% expected. Bitcoin did not react to the release and held near $80,800.Census
The Fed decision is due at 2:00 PM ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET: 94 of 100 economists in the Reuters poll expect the 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% rate to be left unchanged; CME FedWatch puts about 10% on a hike today and 84% on a hike in December.CNBC
Polymarket: 94.9% on a pause today and 76.5% on +25 bp at the Dec 8⁠–⁠9 meeting; in September the Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 bp, which Warsh called "removing a dose of accommodation".Polymarket

8 more facts

The key detail in today's decision is the number of dissents: Rabobank expects Hammack, Kashkari and Logan to repeat their July votes for a hike, and the market would read three hawkish votes as an organized bloc. There are no new projections or dot plot at this meeting.Newsquawk
The backdrop for the Fed is mixed: September CPI inflation at 3.7% YoY, while September payrolls grew by only 29,000 jobs — hence a pause now and a hike in December.CNBC
The 10-year Treasury yield is back near 5.0% (4.99% on Oct 27, 5.00⁠–⁠5.02% on the morning of Oct 28), the 2-year at 4.70%; the dollar index at 102.3 is unchanged on the day.Treasury
WTI crude at $101.8 (+1.9% on the day, +4.8% on the week); Brent rose above $115 after the Houthis claimed a strike on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery (550,000 b/d); Riyadh has not confirmed the strike, and JPMorgan puts the fundamental price near $94.Arabnews
Gold at $4,070 (−0.1% on the day, −1.9% on the week): rising oil has strengthened expectations of further rate hikes, which weighs on both gold and Bitcoin.CNBC
US stocks on Oct 27: S&P 500 +0.6% to 7,723, Nasdaq +1.2% to 26,478, VIX 17.4; Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on Oct 28 (Alphabet's call at 4:30 PM ET), Amazon and Intel on Oct 29.Yahoo Finance
Thursday, Oct 29, 8:30 AM ET: the first estimate of Q3 US GDP (consensus about 3.1⁠–⁠3.2%), September PCE and weekly jobless claims (forecast about 196,000) — the second macro risk inside our 24-hour window.Trading Economics
Per Glassnode, Bitcoin's inverse correlation with the dollar has reached a record for the entire observation history — the DXY reaction to Warsh's words today matters more than any crypto-native factor.Tradingview

9Regulation and events

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at Ripple Swell on Oct 28, called the failure of the CLARITY Act a setback but said the Treasury will keep advancing regulation through the SEC and CFTC, calling both agencies "great partners".Kucoin
The CLARITY Act market-structure bill failed a Senate procedural vote on Sept 15 (49 to 50, with 60 needed); Senator Tillis filed a motion to reconsider, but there is no new date, and a comprehensive law before 2027 looks unlikely.CNBC
The SEC and CFTC are writing rules without Congress: the CFTC proposes separate registration for venues offering leveraged crypto trading, and in August the SEC unveiled Regulation Crypto Assets with exemptions for startups under $5 million and offerings up to $75 million.CoinDesk

4 more facts

US midterms on Nov 3: Polymarket gives Democrats about 92% odds of controlling the House and 64⁠–⁠65% for the Senate; a change of majority would hand crypto oversight to Maxine Waters's committee and complicate any relaunch of the CLARITY Act.Coinspeaker
WSJ, Oct 28: US officials warned Gulf states of a possible "short, intense military campaign" against Iran after the election; the oil market is pricing renewed escalation, and the Strait of Hormuz is de facto closed.Crypto
Calendar for the next 24 hours: 9:30 AM ET US opening bell, 2:00 PM Fed decision, 2:30 PM Warsh's press conference, after 4:00 PM Microsoft and Alphabet earnings; Oct 29, 8:30 AM ET GDP and PCE; Oct 30, 4:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC) the $10.9 billion Deribit expiry; Nov 3 the elections.Trading Economics
Seasonality: in the fourth quarter of past midterm years Bitcoin fell — −16.7% in 2014, −42.2% in 2018, −14.8% in 2022 (Ali Martinez's tally from Oct 26); a three-year sample is a reason for caution, not a pattern.Crypto

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast

Base case came true

88%

the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range

At least one scenario right

100%

the close landed inside one of the three ranges

Day	Morning price	Close	Base case	Came true	Hit
October 28, 2026 · overnight	$80,947	$80,256 (-0.9%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 27, 2026 · overnight	$79,789	$80,994 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · overnight	$80,172	$79,759 (-0.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,516	$79,910 (-0.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · overnight	$80,824	$80,134 (-1.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,350	$80,416 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,776	$80,581 (+0.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 23, 2026	$81,637	$81,189 (-0.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 22, 2026	$82,932	$81,416 (-3.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 21, 2026	$82,892	$84,093 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 20, 2026	$81,990	$83,028 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 19, 2026	$82,886	$81,938 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 18, 2026	$81,746	$82,116 (+0.8%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 17, 2026	$81,615	$81,491 (-0.1%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 16, 2026	$82,202	$81,616 (-0.8%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 15, 2026	$81,108	$82,246 (+0.7%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 14, 2026	$83,610	$81,682 (-1.8%)	Sideways, 45%	Pullback	no
October 13, 2026	$83,728	$83,169 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 12, 2026	$84,017	$81,850 (-2.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Pullback	no
October 11, 2026	$83,078	$83,773 (+0.9%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 10, 2026	$82,669	$82,988 (+0.4%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 9, 2026	$82,374	$82,636 (+1.1%)	Sideways, 48%	Sideways	yes
October 8, 2026	$82,927	$81,754 (-1.9%)	Sideways, 47%	Pullback	no
October 7, 2026	$84,194	$83,322 (-2.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 6, 2026	$85,674	$85,550 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 60%	Sideways	yes

Brief archive

← Previous brief: October 28, 2026 · overnight Next brief: October 29, 2026 · overnight →