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Market cap$2.69T-2.5%BTC dominance60.1%Fear & Greed54BTC$80,502+1.0%ETH$2,342+1.6%BNB$741.56+3.0%XRP$1.30+2.4%SOL$101.40+1.7%TRX$0.3290+0.0%ZEC$1,210+5.7%HYPE$77.09+2.5%DOGE$0.0771+1.9%XMR$605.11+0.8%
This is the archived brief for October 25, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Sunday, October 25, 2026

Bitcoin today, October 25, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Oct 25, 8:45 AM ET · price at release $80,350Two briefs a day: overnight at 1:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:45 AM ET Sunday — a day before the first US session of the week — Bitcoin traded at $80,350, down 0.5% over 24 hours: after Saturday's slide to $79,221 and more than $400 million in long liquidations, it has not reclaimed $81,000.

  • The base case for the next 24 hours is sideways at $79,500⁠–⁠81,500 with a meaningful pullback risk: there's no opening bell or US data today, and Polymarket's median for Monday is $80,463.
  • The key risk is Trump's warning of a possible new strike on Iran as early as Sunday, with Brent near $116.7 — the 6 PM ET futures open is the first test.
Price when the brief was released
$80,350
Oct 25, 8:45 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 25, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$79,500–$81,500
50%
50%
35%
15%
Resistance
$81,000
$81,700
$82,300
Support
$79,200
$78,400
$77,900
Sideways · 50%
$79,500–$81,500

With no US trading or data, price will most likely stay in a band around the 50-day EMA: a DVOL of 38.9 prices no sharp moves, the Oct 26⁠–⁠27 expiries with $81,000 max pain pull toward the middle, and Saturday's ~$404 million four-hour long flush already cleared some leverage. Polymarket's median for Monday noon ET is $80,463, with half of outcomes in $79,115⁠–⁠81,516 — the same band.

Pullback · 35%
$77,500–$79,500

Trump's threat of a strike on Iran "maybe" on Sunday and Brent near $116.7 hang over the 6 PM ET futures open; MACD is deepening again, 68.8% of accounts are long with above-average funding, and the Coinbase premium is negative. Losing Saturday's $79,221 low opens $78,400⁠–⁠77,900 and the $78,000 max pain of the Oct 30 expiry; Polymarket gives 43.5% to a $77,500 touch in October.

Breakout · 15%
$81,500–$83,000

Needs de-escalation with Iran (Trump left the door open to a deal) or ETF inflows on Monday: put skew has dropped to ~4% and six-month fractals rose in 5 of 6 cases. Against it: resistance at $81,700 (50-day SMA) and $82,313 (ETF cost basis), a December hike priced at 76.5%, and negative momentum.

What to watch today
  • Holding Saturday's $79,221 low and the $80,000 level
  • Any news of a US strike on Iran or a deal; CME and oil futures reopen at 6 PM ET Sunday
  • Daily candle close at 00:00 UTC (8 PM ET)
  • Deribit expiry on Oct 26 at 08:00 UTC (4 AM ET), max pain $81,000
  • US market open Monday, Oct 26, at 9:30 AM ET, Bitcoin ETF flows and Strategy's purchase filing
  • Fed decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET, US GDP and PCE Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET, Oct 30 expiry (08:00 UTC)
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 8:45 AM ET on Sunday, Oct 25, Bitcoin traded at $80,350: down 0.5% over 24 hours, 2.2% over the week and 4.5% over the month.Binance
  • The 24-hour range was $79,221⁠–⁠81,034: Saturday's low is still the weakest level in over a month, and price has not been back above $81,000 since.Binance
  • Saturday's daily candle (Oct 24) closed at $80,888 (−0.4%); Bitcoin has shed roughly another $500 since Sunday morning.Binance
7 more facts
  • The weekly range is $79,221⁠–⁠84,898 and the monthly $79,221⁠–⁠87,220: price sits at the bottom of the band it has held since late September.Binance
  • Binance spot volume over 24 hours was 9,682 BTC (~$777 million): thin weekend trading makes any large order move price more easily.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.61 trillion and its dominance rose to 60.1%; the total crypto market ($2.68 trillion) lost 3.7% in 24 hours as altcoins fell harder.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin is 36% below its all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025) and down 28% year over year.CoinGecko
  • The Fear & Greed Index reads 54, "neutral": 51 yesterday, 53 a week ago, 71 a month ago — the dip below $80,000 did not trigger panic.alternative.me
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance is slightly negative (−0.007%, about −$5): US buyers are not stepping in on the dip.Coinbase
  • Ether dipped to $2,285 on Saturday and remains about 12% below early-October levels.Crypto

2Technical analysis

  • RSI(14) is 42.3: below the midline, but far from oversold (30).Binance
  • Daily MACD (−293) sits below its signal line (+42), and the histogram deepened to −334 from −303 this morning: downside momentum is building again.Binance
  • Price slipped under the 50-day EMA ($80,834), with the 20-day EMA ($82,148) overhead: holding below the 50-day opens the way to $78K–79K.Binance
8 more facts
  • The 50-day simple moving average near $81,700 broke on Saturday for the first time in about two months and is now the nearest resistance.Bitcoin.com
  • Supports below are $78,400 and $77,876, then a broader zone of $76,700⁠–⁠72,500.Bitcoin.com
  • The 200-day EMA is $76,482 and the 50-week MA $76,097; the Sept 14 golden cross still stands, so the long-term structure remains bullish.Binance
  • The average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs is about $82,313 (Oct 23 estimate): price has been below it since Oct 22, turning that zone into resistance.CoinDesk
  • The Mayer Multiple (price vs. the $72,942 200-day average) is 1.10, 58th percentile; price is 19.9% above the 200-week average ($67,039) and Pi Cycle reads 0.49 of 1: no overheating.CoinLab
  • Our Market Temperature index is 35 of 100, "cool": 34 a day ago and 36 two days ago.CoinLab
  • Fractals as of Oct 25: price fell 2.3% over two weeks; in 3 of 6 similar historical stretches it rose next, median +3.7%; on the six-month window it rose in 5 of 6, median +10.2%.CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for noon ET on Oct 26 is $80,463, with half of outcomes in $79,115⁠–⁠81,516 and a 52.7% chance of finishing above the current price: our Sideways range of $79,500⁠–⁠81,500 nearly matches that band.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • On Saturday, Oct 24, $436 million in crypto positions were liquidated in four hours, $404 million of them longs, in two bursts.The Block
  • Total liquidations on Oct 24 reached $810⁠–⁠834 million depending on the snapshot, mostly longs; about 196,000 traders were hit.Coincentral
  • Binance funding is +0.0069% per 8 hours (7.6% annualized) vs. a 30-day average of +0.0034%: after the drop, longs are paying shorts about twice the usual rate.Binance
6 more facts
  • Funding is higher elsewhere: Bybit 7.0% annualized, OKX and Hyperliquid 11.0% each.Bybit
  • Open interest in Binance perpetuals is 93,176 BTC ($7.48 billion): down 1.4% in 24 hours and 3.6% over the week as leverage slowly unwinds.Binance
  • 68.8% of Binance accounts are long (2.21 to 1), top traders 1.70 to 1: retail keeps buying the dip, leaving fuel for more long liquidations.Binance
  • The Binance taker buy/sell ratio is 0.96: sellers are slightly more aggressive.Binance
  • Binance futures trade slightly below the index (about −0.04%): derivatives price in no upside premium.Binance
  • Our squeeze-risk index reads +2 of 100: no tilt toward either a long or short squeeze, with signals pointing in different directions.CoinLab

4Options

  • DVOL is 38.9 (37.9 a week ago): implied volatility rose only slightly after the break of $80,000.Deribit
  • The put/call open-interest ratio is 0.60; total Deribit open interest is 385,735 BTC (~$31.0 billion).Deribit
  • Tomorrow, Oct 26, at 08:00 UTC, 2,605 BTC expire with max pain at $81,000 and balanced puts and calls (1.01); on Oct 27, 1,091 BTC, also $81,000.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The big one is Oct 30 (08:00 UTC): 136,018 BTC (~$10.9 billion, 35% of Deribit open interest), max pain $78,000, put/call 0.55.Deribit
  • Weekly 25-delta put skew fell to ~4% on Oct 23 from a mid-month peak of ~14%: demand for downside protection had faded before Saturday's drop.CoinDesk
  • Further out: 12,706 BTC expire Nov 6 (max pain $82,000), 36,991 BTC on Nov 27 ($81,000) and 133,062 BTC on Dec 25 ($75,000).Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $137.9 million on Oct 23: IBIT −$110.3 million, FBTC −$31.8 million.Livebitcoinnews
  • Oct 22 saw $635.6 million in outflows, the biggest daily exit since June 25; about $773 million over two days.247wallst
  • The week of Oct 19⁠–⁠23 still ended positive at +$228⁠–⁠301 million depending on the tally, with over $1 billion coming in the first three days.Financefeeds
5 more facts
  • Cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $57.3 billion, with $104.7 billion in assets (as of Oct 22).247wallst
  • ETFs don't trade on weekends: the funds' reaction to the drop below $80,000 will show up in Monday's (Oct 26) flows.Bitcoin.com
  • Strategy holds 848,517 BTC at an average $75,446; its latest buy was 267 BTC for $22.1 million (week to Oct 18), and it usually files its next update on Mondays.SEC
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of the eventual supply); after Strategy come Metaplanet (44,000 BTC) and Twenty One Capital (43,514).CoinGecko
  • Ether ETFs took in just $4.4 million on Oct 23 after a $110.6 million outflow the day before; they lost about $1 billion from Oct 1 to 22.Livebitcoinnews

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • MVRV was 1.49 on Oct 24, 39th historical percentile: the average holder is up 49%, far from overheated zones.Coinmetrics
  • The short-term holder cost basis was $74,573 on Oct 18: the market is 8% above it, so recent buyers are still in profit on average.Bgeometrics
  • Stablecoin supply is $304.4 billion: down 0.66% on the week and $3.0 billion on the month — no fresh money is entering crypto.Defillama
5 more facts
  • Polymarket's October targets: reaching $82,500 at 58.5% (68% this morning), $85,000 at 24.5%; dropping to $77,500 at 43.5%, $75,000 at 17.5%.Polymarket
  • Polymarket's up-or-down market for Oct 26 sits at exactly 50/50.Polymarket
  • On Oct 23 a whale moved about 4,000 BTC (~$327 million) to Binance and Deribit over five hours: potential supply, though no sale has been confirmed.Tokenpost
  • The year's low was $57,850 on July 1; by Oct 22 Bitcoin had recovered about 40%, whereas in 2014, 2018 and 2022 the bottom came in the weeks after US midterms.CoinDesk
  • Xapo Bank's CEO says wealthy clients increasingly borrow against Bitcoin instead of selling it.Investing.com

7Mining

  • Hashrate is 1,068 EH/s and difficulty 140.58T; 67.5% of the epoch is done, with 655 blocks left.mempool.space
  • The next difficulty adjustment is expected Oct 29 at an estimated +5.2% after +5.9% last time: capacity keeps growing despite lower prices.mempool.space
  • Fees are at the floor — 1 sat/vB for both next-block and within-the-hour confirmation: the network is quiet.mempool.space
2 more facts
  • Block height is 973,073, with 76,927 blocks to the halving, expected around Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space
  • Bitcoin Core developers are changing their vulnerability disclosure policy (Oct 23): AI finds bugs too easily to keep them secret.CoinDesk

8Macro

  • It's Sunday: no 8:30 AM ET data and US stock markets are closed; CME futures, including oil and stock indexes, reopen at 6 PM ET tonight.CME FedWatch
  • On Oct 24, Trump said the US could strike Iran again "maybe tomorrow" — Sunday — while leaving room for a deal; no decision has been announced.Arabtimesonline
  • The WSJ reported munitions being loaded aboard the USS George Washington carrier group, and CENTCOM has follow-up strike plans ready pending White House authorization.24newshd
9 more facts
  • Iran said on Oct 24 it won't let US warships approach its waters and ties reopening the Strait of Hormuz to acceptance of its demands.Aljazeera
  • Brent settled at $116.72 on Oct 23 (+3.1%), its highest since Apr 29 and a third weekly gain; WTI ended at $103.27 (+3.8%).CNBC
  • On Friday, Oct 23, the S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,624 and the Nasdaq 0.21% to 25,955; the VIX rose 2.2% to 19.45.Yahoo Finance
  • Gold fell 1.3% on Friday to $4,008, down 4.1% on the week; the dollar index DXY was 101.81 (+0.2%).Yahoo Finance
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 bp to 5.00% on Oct 23, the 2-year 4 bp to 4.69%.Treasury
  • The fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00%; Polymarket prices a hold at the Oct 27⁠–⁠28 meeting at 95.5% and a 25 bp hike at 4.5%; a 25 bp hike in December at 76.5%.Polymarket
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh named the October and December meetings as decision points without committing to a path; CME FedWatch put October hike odds at roughly 9⁠–⁠15% on Friday, depending on the tally.Investinglive
  • Oil is the Fed's main inflation risk: fuel costs tied to the Iran war drove most of the latest jump in inflation.Itiger
  • On Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET: US Q3 GDP (consensus ~3.0%) and September PCE (expected 3.6% y/y, core 3.1%); the Bank of Canada, ECB and BoJ also decide that week.Newsquawk

9Regulation and events

  • The Fed decision is due Oct 28 at 2 PM ET, with Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET; no new projections at this meeting.Federal Reserve
  • Hardware wallet maker Keystone disclosed a customer data leak (names, contacts, addresses); keys and seed phrases were not affected, and owners are warned about phishing.Investing.com
  • Apex Group founder Peter Hughes says the Clarity Act's failure in the Senate on Sept 15 hands an edge to Asia, the Middle East and Bermuda.CoinDesk
5 more facts
  • On Oct 5 the CFTC opened comment on rules for leveraged retail crypto trading, moving ahead without legislation from Congress.CFTC
  • Sen. Richard Blumenthal asked Tether for details on payments to a firm founded by former White House crypto adviser Bo Hines (Oct 23).The Block
  • The central banks of Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand are expanding a cross-border stablecoin settlement project involving Ripple, Visa and Mastercard (Oct 23).The Block
  • The Initia network was halted after an Oct 23 security incident in which an attacker reportedly minted tokens.The Block
  • Political calendar: China's Communist Party plenum Oct 26⁠–⁠29, Israel's Knesset election Oct 27, US midterms Nov 3.Newsquawk

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
19
Base case came true
84%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
100%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 16, 2026$82,202$81,616 (-0.8%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 15, 2026$81,108$82,246 (+0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 14, 2026$83,610$81,682 (-1.8%) Sideways, 45%Pullbackno
October 13, 2026$83,728$83,169 (+1.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 12, 2026$84,017$81,850 (-2.3%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
October 11, 2026$83,078$83,773 (+0.9%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 10, 2026$82,669$82,988 (+0.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 9, 2026$82,374$82,636 (+1.1%) Sideways, 48%Sidewaysyes
October 8, 2026$82,927$81,754 (-1.9%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 7, 2026$84,194$83,322 (-2.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 6, 2026$85,674$85,550 (-0.2%) Sideways, 60%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight