BTC$77,519
ETH$2,292
BNB$698.87
XRP$1.28
SOL$93.27
TRX$0.3224
HYPE$86.53
ZEC$1,197
DOGE$0.0752
XMR$621.391Price and market
- As of 8:45 AM ET, Bitcoin traded at $77,676: −0.05% over 24 hours, −4.0% over 7 days and −10.2% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $76,389–78,254.Binance
- The overnight low of $76,389 came during the Asian session and sits just $63 above the 30-day low of $76,326 set on Oct 30, the day of the Binance hack; with the European open the price climbed back above $77,500.Binance
- European trading held a $76,455–77,900 corridor: FXStreet calls $76,455 the key support zone, and a daily close below it would open the door to a deeper decline.FXStreet
5 more facts
- Spot BTC/USDT volume on Binance over 24 hours was 14,686 BTC (about $1.13B) versus 8,867 BTC two days earlier: turnover picked up on the decline and did not fade on the bounce.Binance
- Bitcoin's market cap is $1.56 trillion with 59.3% dominance; the total crypto market lost 2.6–3.0% over 24 hours to $2.62 trillion, meaning altcoins once again fell faster than Bitcoin.CoinGecko
- Bitcoin is 38.6% below its all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025) and down 28% year over year.CoinGecko
- As of 8:45 AM ET, Ether traded at $2,293 (−0.1% over 24 hours), Solana at $93.2 (−1.6%), BNB at $699 (−1.0%) and XRP at $1.28 (+1.9%): XRP was the only major altcoin in the green.CoinGecko
- CoinDesk notes Bitcoin is heading for a fifth straight weekly loss: the weekly high of $81,971 sits 5.2% overhead.CoinDesk
2Technical analysis
- The 200-day EMA at $76,651 has been bought for a second straight day: the overnight low of $76,389 dipped just $260 beneath it and was bought back within hours, while the Nov 2 daily close held above it. A close of today's candle (7:00 PM ET) below $76,650 would be the first signal since summer that the uptrend structure has broken.Binance
- Daily RSI(14) is 39.1, a fourth day below 40, but short of oversold (30): there is room for the decline to continue.Binance
- MACD is −1,280 against a signal line of −868, histogram −411: downside momentum is still widening, though more slowly than earlier in the overnight session (−472).Binance
7 more facts
- EMA20 at $79,905 and EMA50 at $80,142 form a resistance band $2,300 above the price; the Sept 14 golden cross is technically intact, but EMA50 is curling lower.Binance
- The 50-week moving average at $75,592 and the short-term holder cost basis at $75,809 (as of Oct 27) form a second line of support beneath the 30-day low of $76,326; Galaxy Research uses the 50-week line as the bear-market boundary.Coinmarketcap
- QCP Capital sees the $76,000–76,600 zone as support that has already held the market four times, and calls a daily close above $79,500 the recovery level.Coinmarketcap
- Nearest resistances: the 24-hour high at $78,254, then Friday's expiry max pain at $79,000, EMA20 at $79,900 and the weekly high at $81,971; supports at $76,390 and $76,330, then $75,590 and the $74,000 zone, where the Nov 6 options carry the heaviest puts.Deribit
- The Guppy indicator on the daily chart flashed a "red" signal similar to those that preceded the February and June drops; meanwhile the Volmex BVIV 30-day implied volatility index broke upward out of a descending triangle — the market is bracing for a bigger move.CoinDesk
- CoinLab fractals: on a two-week window, six similar stretches of history produced a median move of −3.3% over the following two weeks (only two of six went up); on a 50-day window the median is positive, and on a six-month window all six episodes went up.CoinLab
- Polymarket bets for Wednesday, Nov 4 put the median price at $77,447 with an interquartile range of $76,132–78,967 and a 45.7% chance Bitcoin ends above where it traded: the prediction market expects the same sideways action as our base case, with a slight downside tilt.Polymarket
3Derivatives
- Market-wide liquidations over 24 hours totaled $386 million across 94,997 traders, of which $340 million (88%) were longs; Bitcoin accounted for $101 million and Ether for $49 million.U
- The Binance forced-order feed logged by our server showed $31.8 million of liquidated Bitcoin longs over 24 hours versus $6.3 million of shorts (a lower-bound estimate); in the past hour, on the bounce to $77,800, $1.7 million of shorts were already taken out — short positions opened overnight have started to burn.CoinLab
- The largest single liquidation of the day on Binance was a 114.6 BTC long ($8.8 million) at $76,600 overnight, right at the bottom of the move.CoinLab
4 more facts
- Open interest in BTC futures on Binance is 100,015 BTC ($7.77B), +3.6% over 24 hours with the price unchanged: new shorts were opened on the overnight dip, and they have become fuel for a squeeze.Binance
- Funding sits at exactly the base rate of 0.01% per 8 hours (about 11% annualized) on Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid; the 30-day average is 0.0049%: there is no leverage in longs.Bybit
- The long/short ratio by accounts on Binance is 2.57 (71.95% of accounts long), 1.87 among top traders, and takers are buying slightly more than selling (1.02): retail is stubbornly long, and it is retail that gets shaken out on the dips.Binance
- The quarterly futures basis is −0.05% — slight backwardation; CoinLab's squeeze index is −15 on a ±100 scale (−23 earlier overnight): risk is still tilted toward longs, but the imbalance is shrinking.CoinLab
4Options
- Open interest in BTC options on Deribit is 318,876 BTC ($24.7B), overall put/call 0.68; DVOL at 40.4 versus 38.6 a week ago implies a daily move of about ±$1,650.Deribit
- Tomorrow, Nov 4 at 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC), contracts on 3,725 BTC expire with max pain at $77,500 and put/call 0.75 — right at the price; on Nov 5 another 1,761 BTC expire with max pain at $77,000.Deribit
- The next large expiry is Friday, Nov 6: 28,837 BTC (about $2.2B) with max pain at $79,000 and put/call of just 0.37: calls dominate but sit far away, at $90,000 and $95,000.Deribit
4 more facts
- The monthly expiry on Nov 27 covers 57,145 BTC with max pain at $80,000 and put/call 0.81; the quarterly on Dec 25 covers 138,188 BTC with max pain at $75,000: the largest contract of the year pulls the price down, not up.Deribit
- The 25-delta skew for Nov 27 is −4.26 points: puts are pricier than calls, but downside protection is cheaper than in October, when the skew reached −12 to −14 points.Deribit
- For the Nov 4 expiry — the morning after the election — puts 5% below spot traded at implied volatility around 55% versus 44% for calls, a 10-point premium; by Nov 13 the gap narrows to 6 points and by late December it nearly disappears. Options price a move of about 2.6% over election day versus the usual 2%.Coinmarketcap
- Laevitas warns: "That kind of demand historically decays hard once the event it was bought for clears"; QCP ties the put buying not to the election but to the Binance hack and the broadly bearish mood.Coinmarketcap
5ETFs and institutions
- US spot BTC ETFs lost $398.6 million on Monday, Nov 2: BlackRock's IBIT saw $405.3 million of outflows — the fund's largest daily outflow since June 26 — Fidelity's FBTC took in $6.7 million, and the other funds were flat.Kucoin
- On Friday, Oct 30, outflows reached $643.3 million — the 12th-largest day since January 2024; two trading days in a row pulled out more than $1 billion, and net inflows for 2026 have nearly been wiped out.CoinDesk
- Spot BTC ETF assets stand at about $98 billion versus a peak of $152 billion in July 2025; this is the fourth straight week of net outflows. Tuesday's figures will come this evening ET, after the US close.FXStreet
5 more facts
- ETH ETFs lost $140 million on Nov 2 — a sixth straight day of outflows, almost all from BlackRock's ETHA ($138 million); October's outflows were a record $1.61 billion.Kucoin
- Strategy reported on Nov 2 the purchase of 811 BTC for $65.5 million at an average of $80,846 over Oct 26 – Nov 1; it holds 849,327 BTC bought for $64.1 billion at an average of $75,451 — $2,200 below the price at the time of this brief.Benzinga
- Of the $164 million Strategy raised over the week by selling 1,178,552 common shares, only $65.5 million went into Bitcoin, while $208 million was spent buying back STRC preferred stock; the company's dollar reserve as of Nov 1 was $4.79 billion.Seekingalpha
- On Nov 11 MSCI will announce the final list of companies leaving its indexes: by May's simulations, Strategy is at risk. Exclusion would not force the company to sell Bitcoin, but index funds would be forced to sell MSTR, which is already down 48.7% over the year.247wallst
- 181 public companies hold 1,314,155 BTC worth $101.6 billion — 6.26% of supply; after Strategy come Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One Capital (43,514) and Strive (43,124).CoinGecko
6Sentiment and on-chain
- The Fear and Greed Index is 26 ("fear") versus 37 a day earlier, 48 a week ago and 65 a month ago; the one-year average is 31, the year's low is 5.alternative.me
- Per Glassnode, "Last week brought the longest run of daily net realized losses since mid-August"; analysts consider holding above $75,000 the condition for a repeat of past reversals.247wallst
- Long-term holders are underwater on roughly 4 million BTC bought in the $85,000–118,000 range, with their SOPR at 0.99: that is a supply overhang that will weigh on any bounce toward $85,000.Yahoo Finance
6 more facts
- MVRV as of Nov 2 is 1.42 (33rd percentile historically), the Mayer Multiple 1.061, the price 14.7% above the 200-week average of $67,693, Pi Cycle 0.497: CoinLab's "market temperature" is 30 out of 100 — cold, but not a bottom.Coinmetrics
- Stablecoin market cap is $297.6 billion, −1.86% over the week and −$11.1 billion (−3.6%) over 30 days: dollar liquidity is leaving the market rather than waiting on the sidelines to enter.Defillama
- The Coinbase premium over Binance, adjusted for the USDT rate, is −0.17% (about −$7 per coin): US demand ahead of the open has been absent for a third straight day.Coinbase
- Net outflows from Binance since withdrawals resumed on Nov 1 have reached $5.3 billion; the exchange has covered 95% of the stolen $6.3 billion and, from Nov 3, is reopening withdrawals on the remaining networks in stages.CNBC
- Binance spent about half of the Bitcoin in its SAFU insurance fund — roughly $580 million — to cover losses; just over 7,500 BTC remain in the fund's wallet.CoinDesk
- By CryptoQuant's October estimate (Oct 13), whales outside exchanges and pools held 3.03 million BTC — the most since November 2025; as of Nov 3 there is no fresh data on whale behavior since the Binance hack.CryptoQuant
7Mining
- Hashrate per mempool.space is 1,025 EH/s, with the seven-day average as of Nov 2 at about 1,069 EH/s versus 984 EH/s in early October: capacity keeps growing while the price falls.mempool.space
- Difficulty is 148.36 T after a 5.54% increase on Oct 29 — the 11th rise of 2026; miners' revenue per unit of hashpower fell by roughly 14% after it.Cryptoticker
- The next adjustment is expected around Nov 13, in 1,355 blocks; at the current pace it would come in at −3.4% — the first decrease after two increases in a row.mempool.space
3 more facts
- Fees are at rock bottom: 4 sat/vB for a fast transfer, 3 sat/vB within the hour; the mempool is empty even with the outflows from Binance, as users are mostly withdrawing stablecoins.mempool.space
- Block height is 974,389, with 75,611 blocks to the halving — roughly April 11, 2028.mempool.space
- Hashprice for many miners is near breakeven ($36–38 per PH/s per day by CoinShares' estimate), and some operators keep shifting capacity to AI hosting, which caps further hashrate growth.Coinshares
8Macro
- No 8:30 AM ET data today: September JOLTS job openings come at 10:00 AM ET (forecast 7.13–7.16 million versus 7.08 million) along with factory orders (forecast +1.2%); the first 8:30 AM ET-tier data of the week are jobless claims on Thursday and the jobs report on Friday at 8:30 AM ET (forecast +55K after +29K).Trading Economics
- Futures as of 8:42 AM ET: S&P 500 +0.2%, Nasdaq-100 +0.8%, Dow −0.2% (−127 points) dragged by Apple, down about 4% on a weak margin outlook; AMD, Intel and Micron were up 3–4% each as chipmakers bounced after two days of selling.CNBC
- Monday in the US: S&P 500 −0.51% to 7,541 — a third straight decline and the lowest close since July 31, Nasdaq −1.07% to 25,164, Dow +0.41%; October was the Nasdaq's worst month since March 2025.CNBC
8 more facts
- Asia overnight: the Kospi closed down about 3.6% on a chipmaker selloff after Monday's 2.2% rally, while Japan was closed for Culture Day; in Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down about 0.4% by midday as the selloff in US chipmakers spilled over to European names.Investing.com
- Oil reversed higher: after Brent's 7.6% drop on Monday on hopes for US-Iran talks, the WSJ reported a limited US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent climbed back to $105–107, WTI to $97; Iran said a deal remains out of reach.Yahoo Finance
- The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% on Oct 28 with two votes for a hike; the next meeting is Dec 8–9, CME FedWatch puts a 25 bp hike at about 71–75%, Polymarket at 72.5% for a hike and 25.5% for a pause; for January, 69.5% for no change.Polymarket
- The 10-year Treasury yield this morning was around 4.91% (+1 bp), the 30-year 5.28%, the 2-year 4.59% unchanged: the short end is pricing a December hike, and the 10–2 year spread has narrowed to 32 bp.CNBC
- The dollar index is 101.82 (+0.07% on the day, −0.48% on the week); gold $3,944 (−0.6% on the day, −3.2% on the week); VIX 21.5 (+22.7% on the week) — insurance against a stock selloff is getting pricier ahead of the election.Yahoo Finance
- October ISM manufacturing, released Monday, came in at 55.5 versus a 54.5 forecast — the highest since November 2021, with prices paid at 75.2: the economy is strong, and that is an argument for a December hike.CNBC
- The midterm elections are today: Polymarket gives Democrats 94–95% for the House and 73–77% for the Senate, Kalshi 94% and 76%; the first polls close at 7:00 PM ET, results overnight into Wednesday. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick: "There's some anxiousness before these elections", but markets usually rally after the vote.Polymarket
- Fed speakers this week: on Thursday Hammack at 8:50 AM ET, Barkin at 9:10 AM ET and Logan in the evening; on Friday Williams at 4:30 AM ET and Bowman at 12:15 PM ET — hours after the jobs report; on Wednesday ADP at 8:15 AM ET (forecast +65K) and ISM services at 10:00 AM ET (forecast 54.8).Investing.com
9Regulation and events
- The FBI attributed the $6.3 billion Binance hack to North Korea's TraderTraitor group (Lazarus); North Korea, via Kim Yo Jong, rejected the accusations, calling the FBI's findings a political provocation. Binance itself has not named a perpetrator.Crypto
- Tether has frozen more than $1.57 billion in USDT and Circle more than $1.1 billion in USDC linked to the hack; about $3 billion in total has been blocked, while part of the stolen funds keeps moving through Uniswap, per Arkham.CoinDesk
- CoinDesk notes that for the first time since 2014 Bitcoin enters a midterm election above its 200-day simple moving average ($73,169, with the price 5.2% above it): in 2014, 2018 and 2022 it was 35%, 9% and 22% below. DWF Labs' Martin Lee: "it has been higher 12 months later every time", but volatility should be expected in the coming weeks.CoinDesk
5 more facts
- History is not on the bulls' side in the short window: Bitcoin lost 16% in November 2022 and 36% in November 2018, and in 2014 it rose 11% only to fall 15% in December.FXStreet
- The CLARITY crypto market structure bill is stuck in the Senate after a failed procedural vote in September; SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig said they will write rules without Congress, and on Oct 5 the CFTC opened a consultation on regulating retail leveraged trading.CFTC
- The SEC expanded its crypto asset FAQ with criteria for identifying a "central party" among those governing a token — a step toward separating securities from commodities without legislation.SEC
- From Nov 3 Binance is reopening withdrawals in stages on the remaining networks and assets after security checks; CZ said "98% decided to stay", and most of the outflow came in the first hours after reopening.The Block
- Calendar: US open at 9:30 AM ET; AMD reports after the close; Deribit expiry tomorrow at 3:00 AM ET; Tuesday's ETF flows this evening ET after the US close; daily candle close at 7:00 PM ET (00:00 UTC); Devcon 8 in Mumbai runs through Nov 6.Cryptotimes