BTC$79,327
ETH$2,400
BNB$709.19
XRP$1.32
SOL$95.18
TRX$0.3190
ZEC$1,322
HYPE$86.26
XMR$642.74
DOGE$0.07661Price and market
- Overnight, as of 12:40 AM ET, Bitcoin traded near $77,400: up 0.9% over 24 hours, down 4.8% on the week and 9.7% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $75,736–78,063.Binance
- The overnight low of $75,740 was set at about 10:10 PM ET on Nov 3, five minutes before CBS called the House for the Democrats; from the evening high of $77,966 the price lost 2.9%, then recovered $1,200 by midnight ET.Cryptoticker
- Bloomberg reported that Bitcoin fell 2.8% to $75,630 in the Asian session, its lowest since Sep 17, on bets that a blue wave in Congress would bury the crypto agenda, before climbing back to $76,600 in Singapore trading.Bloomberg
5 more facts
- Spot BTC/USDT volume on Binance over 24 hours was 13,984 BTC (about $1.07 billion), almost unchanged from the day before (14,686 BTC): the overnight sell-off came without a surge in turnover.Binance
- Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.55 trillion with dominance at 59.3%; the total crypto market lost 1.9% over 24 hours to $2.62 trillion, meaning altcoins once again fell harder than Bitcoin.CoinGecko
- The price was 38.7% below the all-time high of $126,080 set on Oct 6, 2025; over the past year Bitcoin was down 27.5%.CoinGecko
- As of 12:40 AM ET, Ether traded at $2,297 (up 1.9% over 24 hours, overnight low $2,226), Solana at $93.0 (+1.0%), XRP at $1.28 (+2.0%) and BNB at $700 (+0.5%): the major alts bounced along with Bitcoin, but all were down on the week.Binance
- By sector over 24 hours: GameFi −3.1%, DeFi −1.6%, AI tokens −1.3%; only PayFi was up (+0.7%), thanks to Zcash (+4.6%).Kucoin
2Technical analysis
- The Nov 3 daily candle closed at 7:00 PM ET at $77,454, above the 200-day EMA at $76,739 for a third straight day; the overnight dip to $75,736 pierced $1,000 below it, but by the European morning the price was back above the line.Binance
- Daily RSI(14) stood at 37.9, a fifth day below 40, but still not oversold (30): there is room left to the downside.Binance
- MACD was at −1,325 versus a signal line of −962, with the histogram at −363 (−411 yesterday afternoon): the downward momentum has not reversed, but it has stopped widening.Binance
7 more facts
- The EMA20 at $79,650 and EMA50 at $80,027 form a resistance band $2,200–2,600 above the price; the Sep 15 golden cross is technically still intact, but both lines are curling down.Binance
- The 50-week average at $75,586 and the short-term holder cost basis of $75,892 (as of Oct 28) held the overnight test: the $75,736 low landed between them, and that is exactly where buyers returned.Binance
- The 100-day average at $76,663 became the first resistance on the bounce; the 200-day SMA at $73,163 is the bears' next target 5% lower, while the 50-day at $81,911 remains far overhead.Cryptoticker
- Nearest resistances are $78,063 (the 24-hour high), $79,000 (max pain of Friday's expiry) and $79,650 (EMA20); supports are $75,740 (the overnight low), $75,590 (the 50-week average) and $74,000, where the Nov 6 options carry the heaviest puts.Deribit
- The 30-day DVOL volatility index was at 38.7 versus 37.7 a week ago: options imply a daily move of about ±$1,570, which is the full width of the base-case range.Deribit
- CoinLab fractals: on a two-week window, six similar stretches of history produced a median move of −8.2% over the following two weeks (only two of six went up); on a 50-day window the median is +11.8% (four of six up) — the short-term picture is bearish, the medium-term one is not.CoinLab
- Polymarket bets for Thursday, Nov 5, imply a median price of $77,425 with an interquartile range of $76,175–78,944 and a 50.3% chance that Bitcoin is above the current price: the prediction market expects the same sideways move as our base case, with no skew.Polymarket
3Derivatives
- Market-wide liquidations over 24 hours totaled about $396 million across 96,160 traders, of which $322 million (81%) were longs; $107 million was wiped out in Bitcoin and $60 million in Ether. The CoinGlass data is as of the evening of Nov 3, and the overnight sell-off added more.Kucoin
- The Binance forced-order feed recorded by our server showed $26.8 million in liquidated Bitcoin longs against $14.7 million in shorts over 24 hours (1,183 orders, a lower-bound estimate); in the last hour, on the bounce to $77,800, $3.9 million in shorts were taken out and almost no longs.CoinLab
- The largest liquidation of the day on Binance was a 39.9 BTC long ($3.0 million) at $75,952 at 10:01 PM ET on Nov 3, right at the bottom of the overnight move.CoinLab
4 more facts
- Open interest in BTC futures on Binance was 98,606 BTC ($7.63 billion), down 0.8% over 24 hours and 2.2% on the week: the overnight flush closed part of the positions, and no new shorts were built at the lows.Binance
- Funding was at the base rate of 0.01% per 8 hours (about 11% annualized) on Binance, OKX and Hyperliquid, and 0.0047% on Bybit; the 30-day average is 0.005%: there is no leverage in longs.Bybit
- The long/short ratio by accounts on Binance was 2.31 (69.8% of accounts long) versus 2.57 a day earlier, and 1.74 among top traders; takers were selling slightly more than buying (0.99).Binance
- The quarterly futures basis was −0.05%, a slight backwardation; the CoinLab squeeze index read 25 on a ±100 scale with 28% agreement among components: after the overnight long liquidations, the balance of risk shifted toward shorts for the first time in a week.CoinLab
4Options
- Open interest in BTC options on Deribit was 326,685 BTC ($25.3 billion) with an overall put/call of 0.68; across all venues CoinGlass counted $30.0 billion (up 4.5% on the day as of Nov 3), with calls at 57.8%.Deribit
- Today, Nov 4, at 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC), contracts on 5,022 BTC expire with max pain at $77,000 and a put/call of 0.61, $400 below the price at publication; tomorrow another 3,641 BTC expire with max pain at $77,000 and a put/call of 1.11.Deribit
- The next major expiry is Friday, Nov 6: 30,328 BTC (about $2.3 billion) with max pain at $79,000 and a put/call of 0.36: calls dominate but sit far away, at $82,000, $85,000 and $90,000.Deribit
4 more facts
- Nov 13 carries 14,893 BTC with a put/call of 2.05, the most put-heavy date on the calendar: protection was bought for exactly one week after the election and for the Nov 10 CPI.Deribit
- The most traded contracts on Nov 3 were the $78,000 call for Nov 7, the $75,000 put and the $100,000 call for Nov 27; the largest positions are the $80,000 call, the $60,000 put and the $100,000 call for Dec 25.Tokenpost
- The 25-delta skew for Nov 27 was −5.5 points (−4.3 yesterday): after the overnight flush, puts are again getting pricier faster than calls, though still far from October's −12 to −14 points.Deribit
- The Nov 27 monthly and Dec 25 quarterly expiries, with max pain at $75,000, remain the largest on the calendar: the biggest contract of the year is still pulling the price down, not up.Deribit
5ETFs and institutions
- US spot BTC ETFs lost about $116 million on Tuesday, Nov 3, a fifth straight day of outflows: $95 million left BlackRock's IBIT and $52.6 million left Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini, while the other funds saw small inflows.Kucoin
- The pace of selling slowed: Monday's outflow was $399 million and Friday's $643 million; over three trading days about $1.16 billion left the funds, and the net inflow since the start of 2026 has nearly been wiped out.247wallst
- IBIT's cumulative inflow since launch stands at $65.84 billion; total assets of all spot BTC ETFs are about $98 billion versus a peak of $152 billion in July 2025. Wednesday's data will arrive in the US afternoon.Kucoin
4 more facts
- ETH ETFs lost $85.3 million on Nov 3, a seventh straight day of outflows, including $74.4 million from BlackRock's ETHA and $10.9 million from Grayscale's ETHE; total assets of all ETH funds are $13.3 billion.Kucoin
- On Nov 2, Strategy reported buying 811 BTC for $65.5 million at an average of $80,846; it holds 849,327 BTC at an average of $75,451, just $2,000 below the price at publication, and the overnight low came within $300 of it.Benzinga
- On Nov 11, MSCI will announce whether Strategy stays in its indexes; MSTR shares have lost about 49% over the year, and CFO Andrew Kang announced his departure in early November.Yahoo Finance
- 181 public companies hold 1,314,155 BTC worth $101.6 billion, 6.26% of supply; after Strategy come Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One Capital (43,514) and Strive (43,124).CoinGecko
6Sentiment and on-chain
- The Fear and Greed Index was at 34 (fear) versus 26 a day earlier, 51 a week ago and 70 a month ago; the one-year average is 31, with the year's low at 5.alternative.me
- MVRV as of Nov 2 was 1.42 (33rd percentile of history), the Mayer multiple 1.057, the price 14.5% above the 200-week average of $67,587, Pi Cycle 0.498: CoinLab's market temperature reads 30 out of 100, cold but not a bottom.Coinmetrics
- Stablecoin market cap was $296.8 billion, down 2.1% on the week and $12.2 billion (3.9%) over 30 days: dollar liquidity is leaving the market, not waiting on the sidelines.Defillama
5 more facts
- The Coinbase premium over Binance, adjusted for the USDT rate, was −0.16% (about −$8 per coin): US demand ahead of the open has been absent for a fourth straight day.Coinbase
- According to Glassnode, holders locked in $1.1 billion in losses on Oct 31, and short-term holders sent more than 36,600 BTC to exchanges at a loss; the net realized loss for the second and third quarters combined was $12.3 billion.Tokenpost
- Binance's Bitcoin balance shrank by roughly 23,200 BTC in the four days after the Oct 29 hack; analysts warn that part of the outflow is the stolen 18,270 BTC that left the hot wallet, not accumulation.Kucoin
- Long-term holders still sit on roughly 4 million BTC bought at a loss in the $85,000–118,000 range: an overhang of supply above any bounce toward $85,000.Yahoo Finance
- There are no fresh estimates of whale behavior since the Binance hack as of Nov 4: the latest CryptoQuant summary (Oct 13) put 3.03 million BTC in whale wallets off exchanges, the most since November 2025.CryptoQuant
7Mining
- Hashrate per mempool.space was 1,021 EH/s, with the seven-day average as of Nov 2 at about 1,069 EH/s versus 984 EH/s in early October: capacity is holding near its peak while the price falls.mempool.space
- Difficulty stands at 148.36 T after a 5.54% increase on Oct 29; the next adjustment is expected on Nov 13, 1,258 blocks away, and at the current pace would be −2.9%, the first decrease after two consecutive increases.mempool.space
- Hashprice fell to $33.18 per PH/s per day as of Nov 1 from $40.24 on Oct 1 (−18%): some miners are operating below the breakeven threshold, which CoinShares estimates at $36–38.Cryptonews
3 more facts
- Even so, October brought miners their highest monthly revenue since November 2025, thanks to the price rally in the first half of the month, before the Binance hack.Cryptonews
- Fees are at the floor: both the fastest and the within-an-hour transfer cost 1 sat/vB; the mempool is empty despite the overnight sell-off and withdrawals from Binance.mempool.space
- Block height is 974,486, with 75,514 blocks to the halving, estimated for Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space
8Macro
- US midterms: by the early morning hours, Democrats had taken the House (CBS, CNN) and, per NBC's projection, the Senate with 52 seats after flipping six from Republicans; in Maine, Susan Collins conceded, while Michigan was still counting.Nbcnews
- Market reaction as of 12:40 AM ET: S&P 500 futures −1.1%, Nasdaq-100 futures −1.9%, Dow futures −0.7%; the 10-year Treasury yield fell 7 bp to 4.89%, and the dollar weakened against all G10 currencies.Thenationalnews
- Asia on Wednesday: Nikkei −3.5% after a holiday, Kospi −3.6% (it had been up more than 3% in the morning), Hang Seng −0.2%, Shanghai −0.2%; chipmakers and anything tied to AI were sold in anticipation of tougher oversight under a Democratic Congress.Thenationalnews
7 more facts
- Charu Chanana of Saxo said the market is pricing a stronger-than-expected Democratic result, which lowers the odds of new fiscal stimulus; Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura noted that a blue wave is traditionally negative for the dollar and positive for Treasuries.Thenationalnews
- Tuesday on Wall Street closed before the results: the S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,569 (snapping a three-day decline), the Nasdaq gained 0.83% to 25,372 on a chipmaker rebound, and the Dow fell 0.38% to 51,787 on Apple (−4% on weak margin guidance).CNBC
- Oil: WTI at $96.3 (+0.2%, −6.3% on the week) after a 7.4% plunge on Monday on hopes for US–Iran talks and a rebound on Tuesday on a WSJ report of a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island; Iran called the American response unsatisfactory.CNBC
- On Oct 28 the Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% with two votes for a hike (Cook and Hammack); the next meeting is Dec 8–9, with Polymarket giving a 25 bp hike 75.5% and a pause 23.5%, and CME FedWatch by various estimates 71–77% for a hike; for January, 72.5% for no change.Polymarket
- The 2-year Treasury yield closed Tuesday at 4.61% (+2 bp) and the 10-year at 4.95% (+4 bp); overnight the long end reversed lower on the election results. The dollar index was at 101.53 (−0.3% on the day, −0.6% on the week); gold at $3,966 (+0.6%); VIX at 20.8 (+19% on the week).Yahoo Finance
- Wednesday's calendar: October ADP employment at 8:15 AM ET (forecast +65K after +90K), the trade balance and the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30 AM ET, ISM services at 10:00 AM ET (forecast 54.8–56, with the prices index at 74.0 in September); no Fed speakers on Wednesday.Trading Economics
- Later in the week: on Thursday, jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET and speeches by Hammack (8:50 AM ET), Musalem (9:10 AM ET) and Bowman (12:15 PM ET); on Friday, the October jobs report at 8:30 AM ET; CPI is due Nov 10.Kiplinger
9Regulation and events
- A Democratic win in both chambers changes the picture for crypto regulation: the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate on Sep 15 (49 to 50) and expires on Jan 3, 2027, unless the Senate returns to it; Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen expects investigations into the Trump family's crypto businesses and no bill passing in the next two years.Cryptoticker
- SEC and CFTC chairs Paul Atkins and Michael Selig had said earlier that they would write rules without Congress: on Oct 5 the CFTC opened a consultation on regulating retail crypto trading, and in August the SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets with exemptions up to $5 million and $75 million.CFTC
- On Nov 3 the CFTC cleared trading of perpetual futures on individual stocks on US venues under joint oversight with the SEC: Kalshi, Coinbase Derivatives and Bitnomial filed rules with minimum margin of 15–15.5%; the SEC has 60 days to overturn the decision.Crypto
5 more facts
- On Nov 3 Binance restored withdrawals for another 51 tokens on the Ethereum and Solana networks, bringing the total to 15 major coins including BTC, ETH and SOL; the exchange has covered 95% of the $6.3 billion stolen and gives no timeline for the remaining 5% in illiquid assets.Crypto
- The FBI named North Korea's TraderTraitor group as the perpetrator of the Binance hack; according to the exchange itself, the attack began with a fake job interview with an employee. Co-CEO Richard Teng warned of scammers offering expedited withdrawals and compensation.Yahoo Finance
- Tether has frozen more than $1.57 billion in USDT and Circle more than $1.1 billion in USDC linked to the hack; about $3 billion in total has been blocked, while part of the stolen funds continues to move through Uniswap, according to Arkham.CoinDesk
- Historically, the first weeks after midterm elections have not helped Bitcoin: it lost 16% in November 2022 and 36% in November 2018, and gained 11% in November 2014 only to fall 15% in December; still, for the first time since 2014 it enters an election above its 200-day SMA.CoinDesk
- Today's calendar: Deribit expiry on 5,022 BTC at 3:00 AM ET; ADP at 8:15 AM ET; the US open at 9:30 AM ET with Nasdaq-100 futures around −1.9%; ISM services at 10:00 AM ET; Wednesday's ETF flows in the US afternoon; the daily candle close at 7:00 PM ET (00:00 UTC); Devcon 8 in Mumbai runs through Nov 6.Deribit