This is the archived brief for October 29, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Bitcoin today, October 29, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Oct 29, 1:55 AM ET · price at release $80,389Two briefs a day: overnight at 1:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 1:30 AM ET Thursday, Bitcoin traded at $80,389: −0.7% on the day and −1.3% on the week.

The Fed held rates at 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% on Wednesday with two votes for a hike; the price ran up to $81,700, but while the US slept, during Thursday's Asian session, Nasdaq futures dropped 1% on Alphabet's earnings and Bitcoin fell to $79,710 before recovering to $80,400 by the overnight read; 24-hour liquidations came to $356 million, $205 million of them longs.
The base case for the next 24 hours is a $79,000⁠–⁠81,700 range around the GDP and PCE prints at 8:30 AM ET: the Polymarket median for Friday is $80,447, and the $10.9 billion expiry with max pain at $78,000 keeps the price in the lower half of the corridor.
The main risk is a hot PCE (forecast 3.6% y/y) with 65% of accounts long and a 78⁠–⁠85% implied chance of a December hike: a break below $79,700 opens the road to $78,000.

Price when the brief was released

$80,389

Oct 29, 1:55 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for October 29, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case

Sideways

$79,000–$81,700

48%

32%

20%

Resistance

$81,660
$82,060
$84,400

Support

$79,700
$78,000
$76,530

Sideways · 48%

$79,000–$81,700

The Fed is priced out: the pause was expected, and the market has already folded Warsh's refusal to guide into a 78⁠–⁠85% chance of a December hike. The Polymarket median for Friday of $80,447 and the interquartile range of $79,062⁠–⁠81,624 nearly match our corridor; DVOL at 36.7 implies an expected move of only ±$1,550. Today's expiry with max pain at $80,000 and Friday's main $10.9 billion expiry with max pain at $78,000 pull the price toward the center and lower, but give it no momentum. Open interest was unchanged on the day, the squeeze index is 10 of 100, funding is 0.002% — there is no large leverage to flush. The 20-day EMA at $81,661 and the overnight high at $81,823 cap the upside, while the overnight low at $79,710 and the weekly low at $79,221 hold the downside; GDP and PCE at 8:30 AM ET close to forecast would keep the price in the range.

Pullback · 32%

$77,000–$79,000

The main risk of the day is September PCE at 8:30 AM ET: the forecast is 3.6% y/y with two Fed votes for a hike, and an above-forecast print would lift yields (the 10-year is already at 5.05%) and the dollar. Nasdaq futures are −1% after Alphabet and the Kospi −2.6%: the US open at 9:30 AM ET could deepen the tech selloff that Bitcoin trades alongside. Leverage is skewed long (65% of Binance accounts), $205 million in longs already burned overnight, Hyperliquid whales are net short, and Glassnode's liquidation band sits near $79,600. A break below $79,700 and the weekly low of $79,221 opens the path to Friday's expiry max pain at $78,000; Polymarket gives 15.5% for a touch of $77,500 in October. Also weighing: 6,168 BTC moved to Coinbase Prime, retail deposits at a six-month high, Strategy's pause and −$6 billion in stablecoins over the month.

Breakout · 20%

$81,700–$83,500

PCE in line or below forecast would lift the fear of December, and a strong Amazon report in the evening would bring risk appetite back after Alphabet. There is fuel for a rally: three days of ETF inflows ($423.6 million), 86,702 BTC bought by whales over three weeks per Santiment, the largest exchange outflow in five weeks at 14,942 BTC, and the Hyperliquid whales' net short, which turns into a squeeze on a bounce. The two-week and six-month fractals ended higher in 4 and 5 cases out of 6. It needs a daily close above the 20-day EMA at $81,661; from there the targets are the weekly high at $82,061, the top of the Polymarket range and $83,500. Against it: 87% of Friday's expiry calls sit above the market, and max pain at $78,000 will anchor the price until 4:00 AM ET Friday.

What to watch today

8:30 AM ET — US Q3 GDP (forecast 3.2%), September PCE (forecast 3.6% y/y) and jobless claims: a hot PCE would strengthen bets on a December hike
9:15 AM ET — ECB decision (a pause at 2.50% expected), 9:45 AM ET — Lagarde's press conference
9:30 AM ET — the US opening bell: the reaction to Alphabet −10% and Microsoft +3% after the close
Around 1⁠–⁠2 PM ET — Bitcoin difficulty adjustment of roughly +6%
5:00 PM ET — Amazon earnings and investor call: AWS and AI capex
8:00 PM ET — daily candle close (00:00 UTC): a hold of the 50-day EMA at $80,808 or a break of the overnight low at $79,710
BTC ETF flows for Oct 29 after the US close: a fourth day of inflows or a reversal
Friday: the Bank of Japan decision overnight, then the 4:00 AM ET Deribit expiry of $10.9 billion with max pain at $78,000

This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

As of 1:30 AM ET Thursday, Bitcoin traded at $80,389: −0.7% on the day, −1.3% on the week and −3.9% on the month; it was the second red candle after Tuesday's bounce.Binance
The 24-hour range was $79,710⁠–⁠81,823: after the Fed decision at 2:00 PM ET the price ran up to $81,700, then during Thursday's Asian session it fell below $80,000 as Nasdaq futures dropped 1% on Alphabet's earnings.Bitcoin.com
The low of the week and month is $79,221 (Saturday, Oct 24); the high of the week is $82,061 and the high of the month $87,220; the 90-day low is $62,275.Binance

6 more facts

Binance spot volume over 24 hours was 14,030 BTC, about $1.13 billion: trading around the Fed came without a spike in turnover.Binance
Bitcoin's market cap is $1.61 trillion with 59.5% dominance (ETH at 10.5%); total crypto market cap is $2.71 trillion, −3.4% on the day.CoinGecko
The price sits 36.3% below the all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025); year over year it is down 28.8%.CoinGecko
The Coinbase premium is −0.02% (about −$18 versus Binance, adjusted for the USDT rate): US spot buyers are showing no activity.Coinbase
ETH traded at $2,325 overnight (−1.1%), SOL at $100.6, XRP at $1.30: altcoins fell alongside Bitcoin, and total market cap dropped faster than BTC.Bitcoin.com
"Uptober" did not materialize: Bitcoin has lost about 4% month to date despite three days of ETF inflows.Ambcrypto

2Technical analysis

The price is below the 20-day EMA ($81,661) and at the 50-day EMA ($80,808): the overnight drop broke the 50-day EMA, but the price climbed back to it by the overnight read; the 200-day EMA ($76,532) is far below.Binance
RSI(14) at 43.6: below the neutral 50 but not oversold; MACD at −469 under the signal line at −243, with the histogram at −226 and widening — momentum is with the sellers.Binance
The daily golden cross of the 50/200-day MAs from Sep 13 remains in force; the 50-week moving average at $75,815 is the last line of the medium-term trend.Binance

8 more facts

Resistance: the 20-day EMA at $81,660, the overnight high at $81,823 and the weekly high at $82,061, then $84,400. Support: the overnight low at $79,710, the weekly low at $79,221, Friday's expiry max pain at $78,000 and the 200-day EMA at $76,530.Binance
Mayer Multiple at 1.10 (price 10% above the 200-day SMA of $73,111), the 57th percentile of history; the 200-week moving average is $67,555, with the price 19% above it.Binance
Pi Cycle: the 111-day SMA at $74,805 versus twice the 350-day SMA at $152,406, a ratio of 0.49 — the cycle-top signal is far off.Binance
Fractals: in the two-week window 4 of 6 similar historical stretches ended higher (median +0.5%), in the six-month window 5 of 6 (median +6.9%), but in the 50-day window only 2 of 6 (median −3.5%).CoinLab
Polymarket for Friday noon ET (Oct 30) gives a median of $80,447 and an interquartile range of $79,062⁠–⁠81,624: our sideways corridor of $79,000⁠–⁠81,700 nearly matches the market's.Polymarket
The probability of a price above $80,000 on Friday is 59.5%, above $82,000 17%, below $78,000 7.4%: the prediction market expects no sharp move.Polymarket
Polymarket monthly targets: a touch of $82,500 by the end of October at 29.5%, $77,500 at 15.5%, $75,000 at 3%.Polymarket
CoinLab market temperature is 34 of 100: MVRV, the Mayer Multiple and the 200-week average are cold, while Fear and Greed at 51 and the distance to the ATH are neutral.CoinLab

3Derivatives

24-hour liquidations as of the overnight read on Oct 29 came to $356 million market-wide, $205 million of them longs; $94 million in Bitcoin and $72 million in Ether: the overnight drop below $80,000 flushed out leveraged buyers.Kucoin
During the US day on Oct 28 the picture was the reverse: $167⁠–⁠172 million in liquidations, $110⁠–⁠116 million of them shorts, about $58 million in BTC — the whipsaw around the Fed hit both sides.CoinGlass
Binance futures open interest is 96,585 BTC ($7.76 billion): −0.03% on the day, +1.2% on the week; almost no new money is coming into leverage.Binance

5 more facts

Binance funding is 0.0019% per 8 hours (2.1% annualized), with a 30-day average of 0.0040%: longs are paying a token amount, no overheating.Binance
Funding is 0.0033% on Bybit, 0.0035% on OKX and 0.01% per 8 hours on Hyperliquid (11% annualized): Hyperliquid longs are paying noticeably more than everyone else.Hyperliquid
65.4% of Binance accounts are long (ratio 1.89), with large traders at 1.86; takers are slightly net selling (0.995): the crowd is looking up, but the price is not.Binance
Hyperliquid whales have been net short since last week for the first time since March: $1.45 billion in shorts versus $1.22 billion in longs as of Oct 26; Glassnode sees a liquidation band near $79,600.Crypto
CoinLab squeeze index is 10 of 100: funding, basis and options skew are neutral; there is no fuel for a sharp move in either direction.CoinLab

4Options

Tomorrow, Oct 30, at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET), 135,640 BTC in options worth $10.9 billion expire on Deribit — 35% of total open interest; max pain is $78,000, put/call 0.52.Deribit
Today at 4:00 AM ET a smaller expiry rolls off — 4,187 BTC with max pain at $80,000, right at the market.Deribit
The November expiry (Nov 27) holds 42,128 BTC with max pain at $81,000; the December expiry (Dec 25) holds 135,376 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit

5 more facts

DVOL is 36.7 versus 37.1 a week ago: the expected daily move is about ±1.9%, or ±$1,550; the volatility premium did not rise after the Fed.Deribit
Total options open interest is 400,409 BTC ($32.1 billion), put/call 0.60: calls still dominate.Deribit
87% of open calls in Friday's expiry sit above the market, with the largest block at the $95,000 strike: most of the bullish bets will expire worthless.Crypto Briefing
The November series skew is −3.5 in favor of puts: downside protection costs more than upside bets.Deribit
$776 million in ETH options expire at the same time with max pain at $2,500 against a price of $2,325.Tokenpost

5ETFs and institutions

Spot BTC ETFs took in $137.3 million on Oct 28: IBIT +$136.0 million, BITB +$1.3 million, the rest flat — the third straight day of inflows.Tokenpost
Over the three sessions of Oct 26⁠–⁠28 the funds drew $423.6 million ($110.3 + $176.0 + $137.3 million), but the five-session balance is −$349.9 million; cumulative inflows since launch stand at $57.67 billion.Tokenpost
Ether ETFs lost $21.4 million on Oct 28 (the third day of outflows), with FETH +$18.8 million; $1.1⁠–⁠1.3 billion has left them in October — the worst month of 2026.Panews

5 more facts

Strategy bought no Bitcoin in the week of Oct 19⁠–⁠25 (848,517 BTC, average $75,446, $64.02 billion in total) and instead spent $204.9 million buying back 2.07 million STRC preferred shares.The Block
In October Strategy bought just 851 BTC (334, 250 and 267 by week, about $72 million) and raised its preferred-share buyback limit from $2 billion to $3 billion.The Block
MSCI approved its "non-operating companies" rule on Oct 15: the removal list will be published Nov 11 and the changes take effect Nov 30 — Strategy and Metaplanet are at risk.Tradingview
181 public companies hold 1.31 million BTC ($105.4 billion, 6.25% of supply): Strategy 848,517, Metaplanet 44,000, Twenty One 43,514, Strive 43,000, MARA 35,577.CoinGecko
Solana ETFs lost $27.4 million over two sessions and XRP funds −$3.6 million: in October money is flowing only into Bitcoin.Cryptotimes

6Sentiment and on-chain

The Fear and Greed Index is 51 ("neutral") for the second day in a row; a week ago it was 68 and a month ago 73: greed drained away in two weeks.alternative.me
MVRV is 1.50 as of Oct 28, the 39th percentile of history; the short-term holder cost basis is $75,781 (as of Oct 22), support $4,600 below the market.Coinmetrics
Three whales moved 6,168 BTC ($498.5 million) to Coinbase Prime on Oct 28; a day earlier two wallets dormant for three years sent 2,571 BTC ($206.5 million) there.Financefeeds

6 more facts

Per Santiment, wallets holding 10⁠–⁠10,000 BTC bought 86,702 BTC over three weeks, and 24,073 BTC ($2 billion) left exchanges in a single day; small wallets under 0.01 BTC were taking profit.Yahoo Finance
On Oct 27, 14,942 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges — the largest daily outflow in five weeks.Kucoin
Per CryptoQuant, whale deposits to Binance have fallen 36% since late August ($5.9 billion to $3.8 billion), while retail transfers to the exchange are at a six-month high: retail is selling, whales are holding.Yahoo Finance
Stablecoins total $302.0 billion: −1.1% on the week, −$6.0 billion (−1.95%) on the month; the "dry powder" on exchanges is shrinking.Defillama
Analysts after the Fed: "the market had priced a pause, but not a hawkish tone" (Iggy Ioppe, Theo); Bitget sees the driver in yields and the dollar, Sygnum expects "more turbulence" on PCE.Cointelegraph
Glassnode: the rapid whipsaw around the Fed decision squeezed out overleveraged participants at key liquidity clusters.Bitcoin.com

7Mining

Today, Oct 29, brings the difficulty adjustment: with 96% of the epoch done and 78 blocks remaining, the estimate is +6.0% — from 140.58 to roughly 149 trillion, the highest since March; expected around 1⁠–⁠2 PM ET.mempool.space
Hashrate is 1,091 EH/s; the 7-day average as of Oct 28 was 1,074 EH/s, 6.8% below the October 2025 record (1,153 EH/s).Yahoo Finance
Fees are 1 sat/vB for both fast and one-hour confirmation: the mempool is empty, there is no demand for block space.mempool.space

2 more facts

Hashprice is about $36⁠–⁠37 per PH/s per day (Oct 16), with miner revenue 23% below last year's; the difficulty increase will trim it further.Bitcoin.com
Block height 973,650; 76,350 blocks to the halving, estimated around Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space

8Macro

The Fed held rates at 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% on Oct 28 by a 10⁠–⁠2 vote: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for +25 bp — the first joint dissent by a governor and a regional bank president since 1992.Cnn
Warsh declined to guide on December: he "does not believe in forward guidance" outside a crisis, called the coming weeks "data-heavy," and described the 2% PCE target as "firm, with no soft or implicit targets.".Substack
Financial conditions, per Warsh, are "tighter but not tight," and politics "played no role"; the next meeting is Dec 8⁠–⁠9, with fresh projections.Cointelegraph

11 more facts

FedWatch: the probability of a December hike was 78% on Wednesday evening and 85⁠–⁠87% by post-press-conference estimates, with March at 67%; Polymarket gives 77.5% for +25 bp in December and 66.5% for a pause in January.Mitrade
Today at 8:30 AM ET: US Q3 GDP (forecast 3.2% after 2.2%), September PCE (forecast 3.6% y/y, core 3.1% y/y and 0.3% m/m) and jobless claims (about 200K after 194K).Bea
Alphabet fell 10% after the close (about $400 billion in market cap): revenue of $127.58 billion against a $128.2 billion forecast, EPS of $2.12 versus $3.02 due to an $8.2 billion loss on its SpaceX stake, free cash flow of −$9.1 billion; Google Cloud +103% to $30.71 billion.Investing.com
Microsoft rose 3% after the close: revenue of $92.3 billion (+19%), Azure +48% to $33.17 billion; Nasdaq futures −1%, S&P 500 futures −0.5% — the fear of AI capex is back.Yahoo Finance
The regular US session closed higher on Wednesday for the third day in a row: S&P 500 at 7,744 (+0.28%), Nasdaq at 26,550 (+0.27%), VIX at 16.9 (−3.5%).Yahoo Finance
Asia on Thursday: the Kospi −2.6% after +6.8% the day before (Samsung weighing), Nikkei +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Chinese blue chips −0.9%.Investing.com
The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.05% (+6 bp on the day), the 2-year 4.67% (−3 bp), with the 2-year holding near 4.69% overnight; DXY at 102.21, +0.6% over five days.Yahoo Finance
Gold at $4,057 after a 0.5% drop to $4,039 on Wednesday; Brent at $113.7 (−1.8%) on hopes for US–Iran talks after Vice President JD Vance's letter, WTI at $101.2.FXStreet
The ECB decides today at 9:15 AM ET: a pause at a 2.50% deposit rate and a hint at a December hike are expected; at Christine Lagarde's press conference at 9:45 AM ET, the question of her possible departure looms.FXStreet
Amazon reports today after the US close (call at 5:00 PM ET): consensus is $1.96⁠–⁠2.01 per share and $202 billion in revenue, with AWS and capex of up to $220 billion for the year in focus.Tradingkey
The Bank of Japan on Friday: a pause at 1.25% with a hint at a December hike is expected; a hawkish tone would strengthen the yen and weigh on risk assets.Investing.com

9Regulation and events

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at Ripple Swell on Oct 27: after the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, Treasury will close the gap between the SEC and CFTC through the agencies themselves, with or without Congress.Bitcoinist
Since Oct 13 the CFTC has been taking comments on two proposals — Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets — on registering venues offering leveraged crypto trading to retail.Cryptotimes
SEC: the Regulation Crypto Assets proposal from Aug 19 has completed its 60-day comment period, and tokenization is on the examination priorities list for fiscal 2027.Crypto

4 more facts

Starting in 2027, one of the Fed's eight meetings a year will have no rate vote and no statement — it will be devoted to strategy; the balance-sheet working group's recommendations are expected in Q1 2027.Substack
US midterm elections on Nov 3: Warsh stressed that politics did not affect the decision, and the next meeting falls after the vote.Foxbusiness
Iran: Brent eased on hopes for talks (Vance's letter to Mohsen Rezaei), but Houthi attacks and strikes on refineries keep oil above $110 — the inflationary backdrop for the Fed remains.Com
Calendar: Oct 29 — 8:30 AM ET GDP, PCE and claims, 9:15 AM ET ECB, afternoon difficulty adjustment, 5:00 PM ET Amazon; Oct 30 — Bank of Japan and the 4:00 AM ET Deribit expiry of $10.9 billion; Nov 11 — MSCI list; Dec 8⁠–⁠9 — Fed.Deribit

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast

Base case came true

88%

the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range

At least one scenario right

100%

the close landed inside one of the three ranges

Day	Morning price	Close	Base case	Came true	Hit
October 28, 2026 · overnight	$80,947	$80,256 (-0.9%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 27, 2026 · overnight	$79,789	$80,994 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · overnight	$80,172	$79,759 (-0.5%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,516	$79,910 (-0.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · overnight	$80,824	$80,134 (-1.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,350	$80,416 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market	$80,776	$80,581 (+0.0%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 23, 2026	$81,637	$81,189 (-0.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 22, 2026	$82,932	$81,416 (-3.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 21, 2026	$82,892	$84,093 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 20, 2026	$81,990	$83,028 (+1.3%)	Sideways, 45%	Sideways	yes
October 19, 2026	$82,886	$81,938 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 18, 2026	$81,746	$82,116 (+0.8%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 17, 2026	$81,615	$81,491 (-0.1%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 16, 2026	$82,202	$81,616 (-0.8%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 15, 2026	$81,108	$82,246 (+0.7%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 14, 2026	$83,610	$81,682 (-1.8%)	Sideways, 45%	Pullback	no
October 13, 2026	$83,728	$83,169 (+1.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 12, 2026	$84,017	$81,850 (-2.3%)	Sideways, 50%	Pullback	no
October 11, 2026	$83,078	$83,773 (+0.9%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 10, 2026	$82,669	$82,988 (+0.4%)	Sideways, 55%	Sideways	yes
October 9, 2026	$82,374	$82,636 (+1.1%)	Sideways, 48%	Sideways	yes
October 8, 2026	$82,927	$81,754 (-1.9%)	Sideways, 47%	Pullback	no
October 7, 2026	$84,194	$83,322 (-2.6%)	Sideways, 50%	Sideways	yes
October 6, 2026	$85,674	$85,550 (-0.2%)	Sideways, 60%	Sideways	yes

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