BTC$75,858
ETH$2,234
BNB$693.94
XRP$1.16
SOL$89.65
TRX$0.3195
ZEC$1,262
HYPE$77.47
XMR$610.32
DOGE$0.07171Price and market
- As of 12:43 AM ET, Bitcoin traded near $76,000: +0.7% over 24 hours, −2% over 7 days and −7% over 30 days; the 24-hour range was $74,888–76,378.Binance
- The 24-hour low of $74,888 is a new 30-day low; the weekly high was $81,196, so BTC gave up as much as 7.8% from the peak this week.Binance
- BTC/USDT spot volume on Binance was 15,400 BTC (about $1.17B) over 24 hours versus 26,800 BTC the day before: selling has run out of steam and the market has shifted into weekend mode.Binance
5 more facts
- On Nov 6 Bitcoin reclaimed $76,000 after dipping to $75,200 on Thursday evening; liquidations in the 24 hours to Friday morning totaled about $1.26B, $1.12B of it longs.Crypto
- On Nov 6 Ether dropped about 8% to $2,222, Solana to $89 and XRP to $1.18: altcoins fell harder than Bitcoin.The Block
- Bitcoin's market cap is $1.53T, total crypto $2.57T (−2.5% in 24 hours); BTC dominance is 59.3%, ETH 10.7%.CoinGecko
- BTC sits 39.8% below its $126,080 record (Oct 6, 2025) and is down 25.5% year over year.CoinGecko
- The Coinbase premium is −0.007%, essentially flat: US buyers aren't buying the dip, but they aren't selling harder than the rest of the world either.Coinbase
2Technical analysis
- Daily RSI(14) is 38.6: weak, with room left before oversold (30).Binance
- MACD at −1,463 is below its signal line at −1,141; the histogram is −322 versus −346 a day earlier: downside momentum persists but has stopped accelerating.Binance
- Price is below the 20-day EMA ($78,917), 50-day EMA ($79,677) and just under the 200-day EMA ($76,815): the nearest resistance is the 200-day EMA, $800 overhead.Binance
5 more facts
- The 50-week moving average is $75,559 and price has held it for a third day; a weekly close below it Sunday night would weaken the picture.Binance
- The 200-day simple moving average is $73,243 and the Mayer Multiple is 1.04 (50th percentile historically): price is 4% above the long-term trend.CoinLab
- The 200-week moving average is $67,651, with price 12.4% above it; the Pi Cycle ratio is 0.5, far from overheating.CoinLab
- Fractals: the two-week stretch (−6.3%) resembles 6 historical episodes, 4 of which were followed by gains (median +5.3%); the 50-day window shows a median +2.9% (4 of 6), the six-month window +26.5% (6 of 6).CoinLab
- Polymarket's median for Nov 8 (17:00 UTC) is $76,129 with an interquartile range of $75,007–77,123 and 52.7% odds of trading above the current price: bettors expect a range, in line with our base case.Polymarket
3Derivatives
- Open interest in Binance BTC futures is 95,616 BTC ($7.27B): +0.8% in 24 hours and −2.5% over the week — after the flush, traders have stopped cutting leverage.Binance
- Binance funding is 0.0026% per 8 hours (2.9% annualized), below the 30-day average of 0.0059%: appetite for leveraged longs has cooled.Binance
- Funding elsewhere: Bybit 0.0041%, OKX 0.0018%, Hyperliquid 0.01% per 8 hours — positive everywhere, shorts aren't paying longs.Bybit
5 more facts
- Binance perps trade slightly below spot: mark price $75,986 versus the $76,024 index — a slight edge for sellers in derivatives.Binance
- Binance's account long/short ratio rose to 3.13 (75.8% long), top traders at 2.09: retail keeps adding longs while bigger players stay cautious.Binance
- The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.975: market sellers are slightly stronger than buyers.Binance
- Our squeeze index is −3 (versus −23 on Friday morning): there's almost no skew, and the metrics agree only weakly (29%).CoinLab
- Binance liquidations over the past few hours are small — about $12M in longs and $5.7M in shorts: the forced-selling wave has passed.CoinLab
4Options
- Today at 08:00 UTC (3:00 AM ET), 5,903 BTC of options expire on Deribit with max pain at $77,500 and a put/call of 0.58: a small expiry with little price impact.Deribit
- The next big expiry is Nov 13: 33,337 BTC, max pain $78,000, put/call 0.68.Deribit
- The Nov 27 monthly expiry holds 71,507 BTC with max pain at $80,000; the Dec 25 quarterly holds 140,381 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
3 more facts
- The DVOL volatility index is 39.2 versus 40.6 a week ago: options price in a daily move of about ±2% (±$1,560).Deribit
- The put/call ratio across all open interest is 0.69; total open interest is 344,799 BTC ($26.2B).Deribit
- Nov 27 skew is −4.2 (−5.8 a day earlier): puts still cost more than calls, but demand for downside protection has eased.Deribit
5ETFs and institutions
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $411.9M on Nov 6, a second straight day of outflows: IBIT −$403M, BITB −$20.6M, ARKB −$20.1M, GBTC −$11.1M; only FBTC took in money (+$42.8M).Tokenpost
- The day before, Nov 5, outflows were $430.2M; over the first five trading days of November the funds have lost about $1.28B.Crypto
- Cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at $55.7B with $95.9B in assets (6.28% of Bitcoin's market cap); IBIT alone holds $60.3B.Tokenpost
4 more facts
- Ether ETFs lost $93.3M on Nov 6 and $365.2M over five straight days; Solana ETFs posted their first November outflow on Nov 5 (−$1.2M).Coinotag
- Strategy holds 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451, so Bitcoin trades just 0.8% above the company's cost basis; its latest buy was 811 BTC between Oct 26 and Nov 1.The Block
- 181 public companies hold 1.30M BTC (6.2% of supply) worth about $98.8B; the largest after Strategy are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC) and Twenty One (43,514 BTC).CoinGecko
- AI and chip stocks bounced on Nov 6 (AMD +11%, Intel nearly +7%, Micron +5%, Nvidia +2.8%), easing some pressure on miners that pivoted to AI data centers.Upi
6Sentiment and on-chain
- The Fear & Greed Index is 25 (Extreme Fear), versus 28 a day ago, 30 a week ago and 64 a month ago.alternative.me
- CoinLab's market temperature is 28 out of 100: across eight metrics, the market sits in the cold zone of the cycle.CoinLab
- MVRV is 1.42 (as of Nov 2), the 33rd percentile historically: holders are in modest profit on average.Coinmetrics
5 more facts
- The short-term holder cost basis is about $75,789 (as of Oct 31): price is sitting right on it, so recent buyers are roughly breakeven.Bgeometrics
- On Nov 6 a whale dormant for over a year bought 3,009 BTC (about $228M), per Lookonchain, and another 1,286 BTC (~$98M) was withdrawn from Binance.Blockonomi
- About 11,000 BTC left exchanges on net on Nov 5: coins are moving to cold storage, though analysts say rising funding argues against reading too much into it.CryptoQuant
- CryptoQuant's 30-day apparent demand for Bitcoin is about −160,000 BTC, and the 30-day spot net volume delta on Binance and Coinbase turned negative by Nov 5.Crypto
- Stablecoin supply is $294.1B: −2.2% over the week and −4.8% (about $15B) over 30 days — no fresh money is coming into crypto.Defillama
7Mining
- Hashrate is about 1,021 EH/s; difficulty is 148.4T.mempool.space
- The next difficulty adjustment is around Nov 13 (in 850 blocks), estimated at −3.8%; the previous one was +5.5%.mempool.space
- Fees are minimal: 3 sat/vB for fast confirmation, 1 sat/vB within an hour.mempool.space
3 more facts
- Block height is 974,894, with 75,106 blocks to the halving (roughly April 2028).mempool.space
- VanEck called miners oversold on Nov 5: shares of those that pivoted to AI data centers fell 35% on average in October, while their grid connections remain scarce.CoinDesk
- On Nov 4 Bernstein cut price targets for seven miners by up to 54%, citing risk to Texas data-center buildouts after the election.CoinDesk
8Macro
- On Friday the Nasdaq gained 1.1% to 24,579 and the S&P 500 0.3% to 7,377, while the Dow fell 0.5% to 51,286; for the week the S&P 500 lost 2.7% (its worst week since April 2025) and the Nasdaq 3.4%, with all three indexes down for a fourth straight week.Upi
- President Trump defended the AI industry on Friday and pledged support for its growth, as markets fear post-election Democrats will curb data-center construction.Upi
- October payrolls came in hot: +165K jobs versus a 59–65K forecast, unemployment at 4.1%, wages +0.4% month over month and +3.1% year over year.CNBC
7 more facts
- After the data, CME FedWatch odds of a Dec 9 rate hike returned to ~80% (from ~67% on Thursday); Polymarket has a hike at 76.5% and a hold at 21.5%.Beinsure
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Nov 6 that further hikes are likely despite a 'painful' tech selloff; Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack backed gradual hikes on Nov 5.CNBC
- The 2-year Treasury yield rose 5 bp to 4.51% and the 10-year 2 bp to 4.86% (Nov 6): tighter money weighs on risk assets.Treasury
- The dollar index (DXY) is 102.3 (+0.7% on the day), gold $4,075 (−0.9%, but +4.5% over 5 days), oil $90.8 (−12.8% over 5 days).Yahoo Finance
- The VIX is 25.6: −9% on Friday but +32% for the week — fear in equities remains elevated.Yahoo Finance
- Asia closed Friday in a rout: the Nikkei and Kospi fell 6% (the Nikkei's worst day since April 2025) and the Taiex 4.5%; Asian markets are closed Saturday.Cnn
- The week's key event is October CPI on Tuesday, Nov 10, at 8:30 AM ET: forecasts call for +0.28% month over month headline and +0.21% core.FXStreet
9Regulation and events
- House Democrats are reportedly rewriting the CLARITY Act to give the SEC more power, shrink the CFTC's role and add ethics limits on crypto activity by the President and officials.Benzinga
- The SEC has 2 of 5 commissioners and the CFTC 1 of 5 (Chairman Michael Selig), who is prepared to finalize prediction-market and derivatives rules on his own; the new Congress convenes Jan 3, 2027.Forbes
- The Binance hack (since Oct 29) totals about $6.3–6.4B; Chainalysis attributes it to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, and about $2.8B had been frozen by Nov 3.Chainalysis
4 more facts
- After Binance reopened withdrawals on Nov 1, about $3.64B left on net in the first 9.5 hours — 21Shares calls it an orderly withdrawal, not a bank run.21shares
- Polymarket for November: a touch of $80,000 is priced at 58.5%, $72,500 also at 58.5%, $70,000 at 40.5% — bettors expect a wide range.Polymarket
- Next Fed decisions: Dec 8–9 (hike at 76.5% on Polymarket) and Jan 26–27 (hold at 73.5%); October PCE is due Nov 25.Polymarket
- US markets are closed for the weekend and volumes are thin; the weekly candle closes Sunday at 7:00 PM ET (00:00 UTC Nov 9).Binance