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Market cap$2.69T-0.8%BTC dominance59.5%Fear & Greed50BTC$79,662+1.7%ETH$2,386+3.0%BNB$711.33+1.6%XRP$1.31+2.0%SOL$95.39+2.8%TRX$0.3179-0.3%ZEC$1,316+2.5%HYPE$81.59-3.3%XMR$637.00-0.7%DOGE$0.0759+1.6%
This is the archived brief for November 5, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Thursday, November 5, 2026

Bitcoin today, November 5, 2026: daily brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Nov 5, 8:43 AM ET · price at release $79,673Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:43 AM ET, ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded near $79,700, up 1.6% over 24 hours in a $78,210⁠–⁠81,196 range — after holding $80,500 through Asia it slipped below $80,000 around the Bank of England hike, and jobless claims (189,000 vs. 196,000 expected) left it unmoved.

  • Our 24-hour base case is sideways at $78,500⁠–⁠81,000 (50%): Wednesday's rally ran on short covering, there is no fresh leverage or US demand, Nasdaq futures are down 0.9% on Qualcomm, and Friday's $79,000 max pain plus Polymarket's $79,600 median keep price pinned near current levels.
Price when the brief was released
$79,673
Nov 5, 8:43 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 5, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$78,500–$81,000
50%
50%
30%
20%
Resistance
$80,500
$81,200
$82,000
Support
$79,500
$79,000
$78,200
Sideways · 50%
$78,500–$81,000

Polymarket's Nov 6 median of $79,581 with a $78,419⁠–⁠80,998 interquartile range and a DVOL of 37.2 (about ±$1,550 a day) nearly match the band; max pain for Friday's 33,504 BTC expiry is $79,000. Funding sits at 0.01% and open interest is not growing, so neither bulls nor bears have fuel for a big move. Strong jobless claims (189,000) did not move price — the market is waiting for Friday's payrolls.

Pullback · 30%
$76,000–$78,500

Price is back below the 20- and 50-day EMAs, the MACD histogram turned negative again, the Nov 27 skew deepened to −3.4, and retail is adding longs again (squeeze index −7). Nasdaq futures are down 0.9% on Qualcomm and Arm; a firm labor market and remarks from Hammack, Barkin and Logan support a December hike (77.5%). A weak 9:30 AM ET open could send price back to $78,200 and the Nov 13 max pain of $78,000; the two-week fractal points to a −5% median.

Breakout · 20%
$81,000–$83,500

ETFs returned to inflows ($74.6 million), Dow futures are higher, oil fell 8% on Wednesday, and the 50-day and six-month fractals point up. A reclaim of $80,500 after the open plus Thursday ETF inflows could squeeze shorts above the $81,196 weekly high toward $82,000⁠–⁠83,500; Polymarket gives a November touch of $82,500 a 67.5% chance.

What to watch today
  • US market open at 9:30 AM ET: Nasdaq under pressure from Qualcomm (−9%) and Arm
  • Hammack at 8:50 AM ET, Barkin at 9:10 AM ET, Logan later Thursday: tone on a December hike
  • Thursday spot Bitcoin ETF flows, due after the US close: will inflows hold after $74.6 million?
  • Daily close at 00:00 UTC (7:00 PM ET): holding $79,000⁠–⁠79,500
  • Friday 08:00 UTC (3:00 AM ET): Deribit expiry of 33,504 BTC, max pain $79,000
  • Friday 8:30 AM ET: October jobs report (consensus +40,000⁠–⁠55,000, unemployment 4.2%)
  • Nov 11: MSCI decision on Strategy
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 8:43 AM ET, 47 minutes ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded near $79,700: up 1.6% over 24 hours, up 2.2% over 7 days and down 6.9% over 30 days, with a 24-hour range of $78,210⁠–⁠81,196.Binance
  • The Asian session held a tight $80,250⁠–⁠80,920 band around $80,500; between 7:00 and 8:00 AM ET, the hour of the Bank of England decision, the price slid to $79,520 and lost $80,000.Binance
  • The 8:30 AM ET US data did not move the price: after the jobless claims release Bitcoin stayed in a $79,530⁠–⁠79,750 range.Binance
5 more facts
  • Since the daily close at 00:00 UTC ($80,504) Bitcoin has given back about 1%: Wednesday bought back the seven-week low of $75,736, but Thursday has not extended the rally so far.Binance
  • Spot BTC/USDT volume on Binance over 24 hours was 19,473 BTC (about $1.56 billion), roughly in line with Wednesday's above-average turnover.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap is $1.60 trillion with 59.5% dominance; the total crypto market lost 0.9% over 24 hours to $2.69 trillion.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin sits 36.8% below its all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025) and is down 22.4% year over year.CoinGecko
  • Ether traded near $2,389 (+3.1% over 24 hours), Solana $95.40 (+2.7%), XRP $1.31 (+2.0%), while HYPE fell 3.4%; the CD20 index rose 2.1%.CoinDesk

2Technical analysis

  • Price slipped back below the 20-day EMA ($79,918) and the 50-day EMA ($80,129): Wednesday's break above them has not held, and they act as resistance again.Binance
  • The 14-day RSI is 47.8, down from 50.5 this morning: neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold.Binance
  • MACD is −962 versus a signal line of −923: the histogram turned negative again (−39), so this morning's bullish crossover was not confirmed.Binance
6 more facts
  • Deeper support sits at the 200-day EMA ($76,834), the 50-week average ($75,632) and the 200-day SMA ($73,231); the Sept 16 golden cross formally remains intact.Binance
  • The weekly range is $75,736⁠–⁠81,196 and the 30-day high is $85,598: price is in the upper third of the weekly band but 7% below the monthly peak.Binance
  • A DVOL of 37.2 implies an expected daily move of about ±1.95%, or ±$1,550 from the price at publication.Deribit
  • Resistance is at $80,130⁠–⁠80,500 (50-day EMA and the overnight shelf), $81,196 (weekly high) and $82,000; support at $79,500 (session low), $79,000 (max pain for Friday's expiry) and $78,210 (24-hour low).Binance
  • CoinLab fractals diverge by horizon: six similar two-week stretches point to a median −5.0% afterward, 50-day matches to +3.8%, and six-month matches to +18.9% (five of six higher).CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for Nov 6 at 12:00 PM ET is $79,581 with an interquartile range of $78,419⁠–⁠80,998 and a 48% chance of trading above the current price: like our base case, bettors expect sideways trading around $79,500⁠–⁠80,000.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Market-wide liquidations totaled about $794 million over 24 hours, roughly 70% of them shorts: Wednesday burned most of the squeeze fuel.FXStreet
  • CoinDesk counts about $450 million in short liquidations over 24 hours, $300 million of them in Bitcoin — the largest BTC short liquidation since Sept 21.CoinDesk
  • The Binance forced-order stream our server records shows $83.9 million in liquidated shorts versus $10.3 million in longs over 24 hours (a lower-bound estimate).CoinLab
4 more facts
  • Binance BTC futures open interest is 95,481 BTC ($7.61 billion), down 1.2% over 24 hours and 1.7% over the week; market-wide OI is about $53.4 billion and flat: no fresh leverage.Binance
  • Funding is 0.01% per 8 hours on Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid (about 11% annualized) versus a 30-day average of 0.005%: longs pay, but nothing is overheated.Bybit
  • The Binance long/short account ratio is 1.39 (58% of accounts long), top traders sit at 1.92, and takers buy slightly more than they sell (1.06).Binance
  • CoinLab's squeeze index reads −7 with 31% component agreement: retail is adding longs again (long/short z-score 2.05) while basis and top-trader positioning cool — a mild tilt toward risk for longs.CoinLab

4Options

  • Deribit BTC options open interest is 334,799 BTC ($26.6 billion) with a put/call ratio of 0.65; DVOL is 37.2 versus 37.3 a week ago — no volatility spike is priced in.Deribit
  • Friday, Nov 6 at 08:00 UTC: 33,504 BTC (about $2.7 billion) expires with max pain at $79,000 and a put/call of 0.34 — a magnet $700 below the publication price.Deribit
  • The Nov 13 expiry holds 18,861 BTC with max pain at $78,000 and a put/call of 1.18: next week's book leans toward puts.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The monthly Nov 27 expiry holds 62,785 BTC with max pain at $80,000; the quarterly Dec 25 expiry holds 139,163 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
  • The 25-delta skew for Nov 27 is −3.4 points versus −1.7 this morning: puts are getting pricier again as demand for downside protection returns.Deribit
  • Polymarket's November odds: touching $82,500 at 67.5% (79.5% this morning), $85,000 at 47.5%, $90,000 at 19.5%; on the downside $77,500 at 76.5% and $75,000 at 51.5%.Polymarket

5ETFs and institutions

  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $74.6 million on Wednesday, Nov 4, ending a three-day, $1.16 billion outflow streak; Thursday's figures land after the US close.Tokenpost
  • Fidelity's FBTC added $237 million while BlackRock's IBIT lost $201.2 million; cumulative inflows stand at $65.61 billion for IBIT and $10.42 billion for FBTC.Crypto Briefing
  • Funds lost more than $400 million in the first two trading days of November and over $500 million in October; total net assets of spot Bitcoin ETFs were about $102.3 billion as of Nov 4.CoinDesk
4 more facts
  • Ether ETFs took in $53 million on Nov 4, ending a seven-day outflow streak.Crypto Briefing
  • Strategy bought 811 BTC for $65.5 million between Oct 26 and Nov 1 at an average $80,846 and repurchased $208 million of STRC preferred; it now holds 849,327 BTC.Benzinga
  • MSCI rules on Nov 11 whether Strategy stays in its indexes; removal would force index funds to sell MSTR, but the company itself would not be required to sell Bitcoin.247wallst
  • 181 public companies hold 1,300,893 BTC worth $103.6 billion, or 6.19% of supply; after Strategy come Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One Capital (43,514) and Strive (43,124).CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index stands at 50 (Neutral) versus 34 a day earlier, 51 a week ago and 73 a month ago; the one-year average is 31.alternative.me
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance, adjusted for USDT, is near zero (−0.004%; −0.10% unadjusted): US buyers are not paying up, and American demand stays tepid.Coinbase
  • MVRV was 1.42 on Nov 2 (33rd historical percentile), the Mayer Multiple is 1.09, price is 17.4% above the 200-week average of $67,874 and Pi Cycle reads 0.50; CoinLab's market temperature is 35 out of 100.Coinmetrics
4 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis is $75,903 (as of Oct 29): Bitcoin trades about 5% above it, so recent buyers are in profit.CoinLab
  • Stablecoin supply is $296.5 billion, down 1.8% over the week and $13.0 billion (−4.2%) over 30 days: the rebound has come without fresh dollar liquidity.Defillama
  • CoinDesk sums it up: Bitcoin is resilient, but leverage is missing and demand is tepid, with the Coinbase premium negative for weeks.CoinDesk
  • Per Glassnode, long-term holders cut positions by 248,000 BTC in Q3; CryptoQuant's exchange whale ratio was 0.48 on Nov 2 versus 0.64 in February.Yahoo Finance

7Mining

  • Hashrate is 1,033 EH/s, near its record: the late-October price drop did not knock capacity off the network.mempool.space
  • Difficulty is 148.36 T; the next adjustment around Nov 13 is 1,069 blocks away and currently tracks −2.6% after the previous +5.54%.mempool.space
  • Hashprice, by our estimate from mempool.space data, is about $35 per PH/s per day at $79,700 — near the $36⁠–⁠38 breakeven range estimated by CoinShares.Cryptonews
3 more facts
  • Bitcoin miner stocks fell about 35% in October (VanEck); American Bitcoin reported a $126 million Q3 profit.CoinDesk
  • Fees remain at the floor: 3 sat/vB for fast confirmation and 1 sat/vB within an hour.mempool.space
  • Block height is 974,675, with 75,325 blocks to the halving — around Apr 11, 2028.mempool.space

8Macro

  • Initial jobless claims for the week ended Oct 31 came in at 189,000 versus 196,000 expected and 195,000 the prior week; continuing claims rose to 1.718 million: a sturdy labor market backs the Fed hawks.Investinglive
  • Challenger counted 43,994 announced job cuts in October — slightly more than in September but down 71% year over year.Yahoo Finance
  • Futures are split before the open: Dow +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.1%, Nasdaq 100 −0.9% — Qualcomm is down about 9% on weak guidance and Arm about 3%.Yahoo Finance
7 more facts
  • Wednesday's rally: the Dow rose 3.0% to 53,356 — its best post-midterm day in 44 years — the S&P 500 gained 1.58% to 7,689 and the Nasdaq 1.44% to 25,737.Cnn
  • The Bank of England raised its rate 25 bp to 4.00% at 7:00 AM ET — its first hike in three years — on an 8⁠–⁠1 vote, with one member seeking 50 bp; it sees UK inflation near 5% by mid-2027.Investinglive
  • Fed: the target range is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00%, next meeting Dec 8⁠–⁠9; Polymarket prices a 25 bp hike at 77.5% versus 22.5% for a hold, and a January hold at 73.5%.Polymarket
  • Hammack speaks at 8:50 AM ET and Barkin at 9:10 AM ET, with Logan later; all three favor tightening, and Logan has called for at least two more 25 bp hikes.Newsquawk
  • The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.90% and the 2-year 4.58% (as of Nov 4, down 5 bp and 3 bp); the DXY dollar index is 101.62 (+0.1% on the day, −0.4% over five days) and the VIX is 16.9.Yahoo Finance
  • WTI crude is bouncing toward $90 (+2% on the day) after Wednesday's 8%-plus slide when Trump ruled out immediate strikes on Iran; gold trades at $4,124 (+1.3%).Yahoo Finance
  • Friday at 8:30 AM ET brings the October jobs report (consensus +40,000⁠–⁠55,000, unemployment 4.2%): a strong print would cement a December hike.Trading Economics

9Regulation and events

  • Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and analysts now see the CLARITY market-structure bill as dead in its current form; it expires on Jan 3, 2027.CoinDesk
  • More than 70 House Democrats previously voted for CLARITY, and Democrats are drafting their own bill with broader SEC powers and ethics rules for officials.Kucoin
  • Democratic control of the Senate blocks Trump's effort to reshape the Fed, lowering the risk of political pressure on rates.Yahoo Finance
5 more facts
  • Investigations into Trump's crypto ties, including World Liberty Financial, are expected: likely Oversight chair Robert Garcia advised those involved to "hire lawyers.".Crypto
  • The SEC and CFTC keep writing rules without Congress, but such rules are easier to reverse than legislation.CNBC
  • A week after the $6.3 billion Binance hack, about $3 billion has been frozen, Circle has blocked over 800 million USDC and Tether 1.567 billion USDT; the attack is linked to North Korean hackers.CoinDesk
  • Bitwise notes that 30 days after the 10 largest hacks in history Bitcoin was higher five times and lower five times.The Block
  • Historically, post-midterm Novembers have not been kind to Bitcoin (−16% in 2022, −36% in 2018), but this time it entered the vote above its 200-day average for the first time since 2014.CoinDesk

Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
37
Base case came true
78%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
97%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 4, 2026 · overnight$77,409$80,520 (+4.0%) Sideways, 45%Breakoutno
November 4, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,447$79,662 (+1.7%) Sideways, 47%Breakoutno
November 3, 2026 · overnight$76,719$77,390 (+0.6%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 3, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,676$78,298 (+1.1%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 2, 2026 · overnight$78,370$76,944 (-1.9%) Sideways, 52%Pullbackno
November 2, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,200$77,428 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 1, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,980$77,808 (-0.1%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · overnight$78,686$77,193 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 30, 2026 · morning, pre-market$77,334$77,619 (+0.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 29, 2026 · overnight$80,389$78,280 (-2.5%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
October 29, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,118$77,382 (-3.5%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 28, 2026 · overnight$80,947$80,256 (-0.9%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 28, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,831$80,170 (-1.4%) Sideways, 52%Sidewaysyes
October 27, 2026 · overnight$79,789$80,994 (+1.6%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · overnight$80,172$79,759 (-0.5%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 26, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,516$79,910 (-0.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · overnight$80,824$80,134 (-1.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 25, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,350$80,416 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 24, 2026 · morning, pre-market$80,776$80,581 (+0.0%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 23, 2026$81,637$81,189 (-0.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 22, 2026$82,932$81,416 (-3.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 21, 2026$82,892$84,093 (+1.3%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 20, 2026$81,990$83,028 (+1.3%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
October 19, 2026$82,886$81,938 (-0.2%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 18, 2026$81,746$82,116 (+0.8%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 17, 2026$81,615$81,491 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 16, 2026$82,202$81,616 (-0.8%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 15, 2026$81,108$82,246 (+0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 14, 2026$83,610$81,682 (-1.8%) Sideways, 45%Pullbackno
October 13, 2026$83,728$83,169 (+1.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes

Brief archive

November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 5, 2026 · overnightNovember 4, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 4, 2026 · overnightNovember 3, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 3, 2026 · overnightNovember 2, 2026 · morning, pre-marketNovember 2, 2026 · overnightNovember 1, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 30, 2026 · overnightOctober 29, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 29, 2026 · overnightOctober 28, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 28, 2026 · overnightOctober 27, 2026 · overnightOctober 26, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 26, 2026 · overnightOctober 25, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 25, 2026 · overnightOctober 24, 2026 · morning, pre-marketOctober 23, 2026 · overnightOctober 22, 2026 · overnightOctober 21, 2026 · overnightOctober 20, 2026 · overnightOctober 19, 2026 · overnightOctober 18, 2026 · overnightOctober 17, 2026 · overnightOctober 16, 2026 · overnightOctober 15, 2026 · overnightOctober 14, 2026 · overnightOctober 13, 2026 · overnightOctober 12, 2026 · overnightOctober 11, 2026 · overnightOctober 10, 2026 · overnightOctober 9, 2026 · overnightOctober 8, 2026 · overnightOctober 7, 2026 · overnightOctober 6, 2026 · overnight