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Forecast accuracy

Every day the scenarios are recorded at release; 24 hours later we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Briefs checked
49
Base case came true
80%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
96%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
MonthBriefsBase case came trueAt least one right
November 20261974%89%
October 20263083%100%

Latest briefs

DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 10, 2026 · overnight$74,806$73,736 (-1.4%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 10, 2026 · morning, pre-market$73,980$73,888 (-0.7%) Sideways, 42%Sidewaysyes
November 9, 2026 · overnight$74,578$74,786 (+0.0%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 9, 2026 · morning, pre-market$74,772$74,396 (-0.7%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
November 8, 2026 · overnight$75,878$74,818 (-1.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 8, 2026 · morning$76,064$74,920 (-1.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 7, 2026 · overnight$76,023$75,866 (-0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 7, 2026 · morning$75,902$75,980 (+0.1%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · overnight$75,491$75,907 (+0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 6, 2026 · morning, pre-market$75,650$75,900 (-0.2%) Sideways, 45%Sidewaysyes
November 5, 2026 · overnight$80,490$75,765 (-5.9%) Sideways, 48%Pullbackno
November 5, 2026 · morning, pre-market$79,673$76,040 (-4.5%) Sideways, 50%Pullbackno
November 4, 2026 · overnight$77,409$80,520 (+4.0%) Sideways, 45%Breakoutno
November 4, 2026 · morning, pre-market$78,447$79,662 (+1.7%) Sideways, 47%Breakoutno

Full archive by month