Crypto market weekly review: Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026

The week of Oct 26 – Nov 1 started as a quiet wait for the Fed and ended with the biggest shock of the fall. On Thursday evening, Oct 29, Binance disclosed a breach of its hot wallets and put the damage at about $6.3 billion. Bitcoin lost almost $4,000 overnight, more than $1.5 billion of positions were liquidated across the market, and spot bitcoin ETFs posted their largest daily outflow since late June on Friday. By Sunday, though, Binance had reopened withdrawals, the panic faded, and the week closed down just 2.2%. For the live price and today's outlook, see the daily brief.

The week in 5 points

1. Bitcoin fell 2.2% on the week. On Binance candles it opened Monday at $80,154 and closed Sunday at $78,354. The weekly high of $81,971 came on Thursday evening and the low of $76,326 on Friday. October ended down 7.2%.
2. Binance lost $6.3 billion in a hack. TRM Labs attributes the Oct 29 attack to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, and the FBI backed that view on Oct 31. Withdrawals resumed on Nov 1. According to CNBC, net outflows on the first day came to $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of the exchange's assets.
3. The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%. The vote was 10⁠–⁠2, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a hike. A day later, September PCE inflation came in at 3.6% year over year, and markets now price a December hike.
4. ETFs: four days of inflows, then a large exit. Bitcoin ETFs took in $440.7 million from Oct 26 to Oct 29 but lost $643.3 million on Oct 30. The week ended at −$202.6 million (The Block, SoSoValue data). Ether ETFs lost $431.5 million.
5. Altcoins lagged bitcoin, except HYPE. ETH fell 2.3%, SOL 6.8% and BNB 3.5%. Hyperliquid (HYPE) gained 15.1% after ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed with Trade[XYZ] to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetuals to the US market.

The week in numbers

CoinLab data only, no news recap.

Bitcoin

Spot ETF flows

By fund and by day — on the ETF flows page.

Derivatives

Liquidations come from the Binance feed and are a lower bound.

Sentiment and liquidity

Top-100 movers of the week

Stablecoins excluded; 7-day change at publication time.

Data: Binance, SoSoValue, alternative.me, FRED, CoinMarketCap. Not investment advice.

Editor's note: the ETF table above covers Oct 26⁠–⁠29. SoSoValue's Friday data had not reached our database at publication time. Including Friday's $643.3 million outflow, bitcoin ETFs ended the week at −$202.6 million, Oct 30 was the worst day, and ether ETFs lost $431.5 million (The Block).

Price and technical picture

For the first three days bitcoin went nowhere. On Monday and Tuesday the price dipped below $80,000 several times and recovered each time. On Wednesday, Fed day, the daily candle closed at $81,344, the best close of the week. On Thursday evening the price reached the weekly high of $81,971. A few hours later the Binance news broke. According to our daily brief, bitcoin dropped from $80,300 at 4:15 PM ET to $76,418 by 10:07 PM ET on Oct 29. On Friday afternoon, as US tech stocks sold off, it revisited the low and set the weekly bottom at $76,326.

The 200-day exponential moving average stopped the slide. As of Nov 2 it sits at $76,661. Buyers absorbed Friday's dip: the weekly candle has a long lower wick, and September's golden cross of the moving averages still holds. Resistance overhead is dense. The 20-day EMA ($80,289) and 50-day EMA ($80,304) have merged into a single band near $80,300, about 2.5% above the weekly close. Below the 200-day EMA sit the 50-week average ($75,606) and the short-term holder cost basis ($75,834 as of Oct 26, Coin Metrics).

Momentum is weak but the decline is slowing. The daily RSI(14) is 39.5, in the lower third of the scale but not oversold. The MACD histogram shrank on Sunday for the first time in four days. Binance BTC/USDT volume for the week was 102,671 BTC, up from 93,209 the week before. Almost half of it traded on Thursday and Friday.

Our fractals send mixed signals. For the two-week stretch (−5.1%), only 2 of 6 similar historical segments kept rising, with a median of −4.0% over the next two weeks. For the 50-day stretch, 4 of 6 analogs moved higher. Historically, the short horizon looks weaker than the long one. Polymarket's November contracts give 83.5% odds of touching $80,000 and 65.5% of touching $75,000, so traders expect a wide range without a clear trend. More on the coin is on the bitcoin page.

Derivatives and options

The market was overloaded with longs before the hack. On Tuesday 69.5% of Binance accounts were betting on a rise, with funding three times its 30-day average. That is why the drop overnight into Oct 30 turned into a cascade. More than $1.5 billion of positions were liquidated market-wide in a day, mostly longs (Bitcoin.com News). On our Binance liquidation feed, BTC liquidations on that exchange alone came to $144 million on Oct 29 and $129 million on Oct 30. The weekend was calm: Sunday's market-wide liquidations were $85.6 million, and bitcoin shorts lost more than longs (ChainCatcher).

Leverage has been flushed out. Open interest in Binance's BTC/USDT perpetual was 95,304 BTC ($7.47 billion) on the morning of Nov 2, down 1.1% on the week. Funding is back to normal: 0.0065% per 8 hours on Binance, 0.0025% on Bybit, 0.01% on Hyperliquid. The share of long accounts on Binance dropped to 70% (long/short ratio 2.30). Our squeeze index reads 0: no overheating and no capitulation.

In options, the main event was Deribit's monthly expiry on Oct 30 at 08:00 UTC. A total of 134,383 BTC options worth about $10.6 billion expired, roughly a third of all open interest, with max pain at $78,000 (Deribit). After the overnight slide the price was already close to that level, and the expiry did not move it further. As of Nov 2, Deribit BTC options open interest stands at 300,337 BTC ($23.5 billion), with a put/call ratio of 0.66. The DVOL volatility index is 38.5, versus 38.8 a week earlier: even a hack of the largest exchange did not lift expected volatility. The 25-delta skew for November is −4.3 points in favor of puts, so traders are buying downside protection but not panicking.

ETFs and institutions

ETF flows split the week in two. From Monday to Thursday, bitcoin funds took in money every day. The best day was Tuesday, Oct 27, with $176 million, of which $151 million went to BlackRock's IBIT (our report). On Friday, after the hack, the funds lost $643.3 million. According to The Block, that was the largest daily outflow since June 25, and the week ended at −$202.6 million. Spot bitcoin ETFs hold about $98.1 billion, so Friday's outflow was less than 1% of assets. Flows by fund and by day are on the ETF flows page.

Ether funds fared worse. According to Glassnode, as reported by the media, spot ether ETFs have seen outflows for 23 straight trading days, the longest streak since the funds launched (our story). They lost $431.5 million on the week, $155.9 million of it on Friday.

Companies moved in different directions. Strategy bought no bitcoin in the week of Oct 19⁠–⁠25 but repurchased $204.9 million of its STRC preferred shares (story). On Oct 29 it reported third-quarter net income of $19.53 billion, almost all from the revaluation of its bitcoin. It held 848,517 BTC as of Oct 25. Strive bought 6,182 BTC for about $511 million, taking its stack to 43,000 BTC (story). Bitmine added 10,452 ETH and now holds 6.05 million ETH (story).

There was also a move the other way. On Oct 30, the board of Next Technology Holding (Nasdaq: NXTT) authorized selling or pledging its 5,833 BTC, worth about $450 million. Among its reasons, the company cited the Binance hack and quantum computing risk (story). In total, 181 public companies hold 1,312,578 BTC, or 6.25% of supply (CoinGecko). A separate risk for these firms is MSCI: its list of "non-operating companies" to be removed from indexes comes out on Nov 11, and Strategy and Metaplanet are in the risk zone (TradingView).

On-chain and mining

The week's main on-chain story was the hack and its aftermath. Binance said it is covering losses from its SAFU fund and its own capital, and it reopened withdrawals in phases across 15 networks starting Nov 1. According to CNBC, $4.65 billion left the exchange on the first day against $1.01 billion of deposits. The net outflow of $3.64 billion is about 2.1% of the exchange's $171 billion in assets, so there was no bank run. By Nov 2, Circle had frozen more than $1.1 billion of USDC tied to the hack. Together with the 1.57 billion USDT frozen by Tether, that is about half of the stolen amount. After the hack, Aave temporarily froze 292 V3 and V4 reserves when the attacker's wallet borrowed 19,762 WETH against USDT collateral (story).

Network valuation remains cool. MVRV was 1.45 on Nov 1 (Coin Metrics): the average holder is up 45%, and there is no mass profit-taking. CoinLab's market temperature is 31 out of 100. Glassnode notes that long-term holders sit on about 4 million BTC bought at $85,000⁠–⁠118,000 in 2025. If the price climbs toward that zone, some of them may sell to break even. Stablecoin market cap is $299.5 billion, down 1.5% on the week (DefiLlama): no fresh dollars are entering the market.

Mining barely reacted to the price drop. Hashrate holds near 1,047 EH/s, and the Oct 29 difficulty adjustment added 5.54% (mempool.space). Combined with the lower price, that cut miners' revenue per terahash by more than 10% over the month. Fees are about 1 sat/vB even with mass withdrawals from Binance: the mempool is empty. The next adjustment is expected around Nov 13 and currently projects −1.6%.

Macro

On Oct 28 the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with two votes for a hike (our story). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no guidance for December. The next day handed the hawks more arguments. US third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate against a 3.2% forecast, and September PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6% year over year, with core at 3.1% (BEA, Fox Business). As of Nov 2, Polymarket puts the odds of a hike at the Dec 8⁠–⁠9 meeting at 69.5%.

Stocks did not help. Tech earnings disappointed: Alphabet fell 12.6% on Thursday, and Amazon and Intel dropped after their reports. The Nasdaq lost 2.9% on Friday. According to CNBC, the Nasdaq fell 2% on the week, while the S&P 500 and the Dow each lost less than 1%. For a second month, bitcoin has been tracking tech stocks, mostly on the way down.

Bonds and the dollar weighed less. After the equity sell-off, money moved into Treasuries: on Oct 30 the 10-year yield was 4.94% and the 2-year 4.56% (US Treasury). The DXY dollar index barely moved on the week, near 101.9. Gold fell 3.3% on Friday to $3,899 (Kitco), so bitcoin's weakness is not unique. WTI crude rose 2% on Oct 30 after attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz (OilPrice), and expensive energy remains the main argument for a hike.

Altcoins of the week

Binance daily candles, Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00 UTC. The "Week in numbers" block above uses the 7-day change at publication time, so its figures differ slightly.

Ether lost 2.3%, about the same as bitcoin, even though the attacker laundered the stolen funds through ether. Its weekly low was $2,174 on the day of the hack. ETF outflows weigh on it, and Bitmine's buying has not offset them so far. Solana looked worse: −6.6% on Oct 29 alone and −6.8% for the week. BNB fell 8.1% on the day of the hack, touching $680, and recovered part of that by Sunday.

The week's leader was Hyperliquid. On Oct 29, ICE announced a definitive agreement with Trade[XYZ]: ICE will operate the company's regulated markets and take a minority stake. Launch depends on regulatory approval. According to FXStreet, HYPE rose 17% that day. For the week the token gained 15.1% and hit $97.74 at its peak. Earlier, on Oct 26, Payward agreed to become a CFTC-regulated operator on Hyperliquid. DeFi tokens were among the losers: CRV fell 18.9% and ENA 11.5%. After the Binance hack, traders cut risk in leveraged protocols.

Regulation and events

Besides the Binance hack, the week brought several other incidents. Polymarket briefly halted trading after a $2.65 million theft through a third-party service (story). Chainalysis disclosed that an AI-driven attack exposed customer names and emails (story). Indodax suspended deposits and withdrawals because of cyberattacks (story). And on Nov 2, BTCPay Server told operators to shut down their servers after BTC was drained from hot wallets (story).

In the US, crypto rules are moving through the agencies rather than Congress. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Oct 27 that, after the Clarity Act failed in the Senate, Treasury would push rules through the SEC and CFTC (story). The CFTC sued Utah to stop its bans on prediction markets (story) and reopened its probe into US users' access to Polymarket (story). The OCC gave final approval to Ripple's national trust bank (story). DTCC launched its tokenization service with 34 securities (story). The SEC is taking comments on crypto custody rules until Dec 7 (The Hill).

Outside the US, Canada published draft stablecoin regulations (story), the French Senate approved crypto tax data sharing under the CARF standard (story), and Thailand's Supreme Court recognized bitcoin as property (story). KuCoin is ending service for users in Russia and Belarus (story). Tether reported $1.5 billion in third-quarter profit and $7.95 billion in excess reserves (Tether).

Calendar for the new week

• Monday, Nov 2. 3:00 AM ET: 3,682 BTC options expire on Deribit. Strategy may report purchases: on Sunday Michael Saylor posted his tracker, which usually precedes a filing. 10:00 AM ET: ISM manufacturing for October. After the US close: Apple and Palantir earnings (CNBC).
• Tuesday, Nov 3. US midterm elections: the entire House and 35 Senate seats are up (CNBC). The result will shape when Congress returns to crypto market structure legislation.
• Wednesday, Nov 4. 8:15 AM ET: ADP employment. 10:00 AM ET: ISM services.
• Thursday, Nov 5. 8:30 AM ET: weekly jobless claims. Fed officials speak (Newsquawk).
• Friday, Nov 6. 3:00 AM ET: 27,187 BTC options expire on Deribit, max pain $80,000. 8:30 AM ET: October jobs report, consensus +55,000 payrolls.
• Later: Nov 11, MSCI's list of "non-operating companies" to be removed from indexes; around Nov 13, the difficulty adjustment; Dec 8⁠–⁠9, the Fed meeting.

US clocks moved back to standard time on Nov 1, so the gap between ET and UTC is now five hours.

Bottom line: base case for the week

The week showed that the market can absorb a blow of this size. After a hack at the largest exchange, bitcoin lost only 2.2% on the week, and the overnight slide to $76,418 was bought back within a day. Leverage is flushed, funding is low, and Binance withdrawals are running without panic. But there are few reasons to rally either. The Fed is leaning toward a December hike, the Nasdaq is falling on disappointing earnings, and money is leaving ETFs, especially ether funds.

The base case for the week is a range of roughly $75,600⁠–⁠80,300: the 50-week average and 200-day EMA below, the 20/50-day EMA band above. A break higher, toward Friday's $80,000 max pain and beyond, would need a Nasdaq rebound, calm elections and a soft jobs report. Downside risks are a strong jobs report that cements bets on a December hike, new transfers from the attacker's addresses, and selling by companies like NXTT. A break below $75,600 would open the way to the 200-day simple moving average near $73,200. Last week's review: Oct 19⁠–⁠25.

This is not investment advice.