Sign in
ENRU
Market cap$2.15T-9.9%BTC dominance58.5%Fear & Greed10BTC$62,539-8.5%ETH$1,723-10.6%BNB$573.06-9.0%XRP$0.9167-8.9%SOL$69.05-10.6%TRX$0.3061-1.8%HYPE$63.51-11.0%ZEC$853.28-8.1%XMR$470.38-10.9%DOGE$0.0565-12.3%
This is the archived brief for November 13, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Friday, November 13, 2026

Bitcoin on November 13, 2026: pre-market brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Nov 13, 8:47 AM ET · price at release $69,913Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:43 AM ET, about 45 minutes ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded near $69,900 (down 3.6% in 24 hours): overnight it fell to $67,568, the lowest since Aug 19, piercing the 200-week moving average, then recovered toward $70,000 through the European session.

  • The 8:30 AM ET producer price report came in slightly softer than forecast (up 0.3% on the month versus 0.4% expected), and Bitcoin gained 1% in five minutes, touching $70,214.
  • The base case for the next 24 hours is a range of $68,700⁠–⁠71,000 (46%): oversold readings and negative funding support the price, but a 10-year Treasury yield above 5.1%, six days of ETF outflows and the weekend ahead cap the rebound.
Price when the brief was released
$69,913
Nov 13, 8:47 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 13, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$68,700–$71,000
46%
46%
28%
26%
Resistance
$70,200
$71,500
$73,100
Support
$69,100
$67,900
$67,570
Sideways · 46%
$68,700–$71,000

PPI removed the main risk of the day but did not change the picture: a December hike is fully priced and the 10-year yields 5.13%. After the data the price rose to $70,200 on short liquidations rather than spot buying — the Coinbase premium is flat. RSI at 25.8, fear at 20 and a market temperature of 21/100 restrain sellers, and negative funding shows shorts building at the lows; overhead, the broken $70,000⁠–⁠71,500 zone and six days of ETF outflows weigh. The pre-data Polymarket median was $69,275 (interquartile range $68,266⁠–⁠70,519), and DVOL at 40.2 implies a move of about ±$1,470. The second half of the window falls on a thin-liquidity Saturday.

Pullback · 28%
$66,500–$68,700

The reasons for the drop remain: the US 10-year yield is up nearly 30 bp on the week, the dollar is near a 19-month high and the market prices a series of rate hikes. With 76.1% of Binance accounts long there is fuel for another cascade if the price falls back below $69,100 toward the 200-week average at $67,879; a second break opens $66,500, and Keith Alan sees $57,700 as the target below. ETFs have lost money for six sessions, stablecoin supply shrank by $16.1 billion in a month and the two-week fractal shows a median of −5.5%. Hawkish remarks from Collins and Bowman, a weak Nasdaq open or weekend headlines from the Middle East could be the trigger.

Breakout · 26%
$71,000–$73,200

A daily RSI below 26 is rare and often ends in a technical bounce; the 50-day fractal shows 5 of 6 up with a median of +5.1%. PPI came in softer than forecast, Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.7% and Nvidia is recovering — if stocks open firmly and yields back off 5.15%, Bitcoin could catch up. Market-wide average funding is negative for the first time in a month: shorts have positions to cover above $70,200, with the next targets at the Nov 12 close of $71,500 and tomorrow's max pain at $72,500. Above $73,200 within a day is unlikely: the 200-day average sits at $73,137 and ETF inflows are absent.

What to watch today
  • 9:30 AM ET: the US open — whether futures hold their 0.7% gain, Nvidia's second day without Huang, and how the 10-year yield behaves at 5.13⁠–⁠5.15%
  • Fed speakers: Collins at 9:10 AM ET, Bowman at 10:50 AM ET, Jefferson at 7:00 PM ET
  • A hold above $70,200 (the post-PPI peak) or a return below $69,100 toward the 200-week average at $67,879
  • Overnight — spot Bitcoin ETF flows for Nov 13: a seventh day of outflows or a reversal
  • 7:00 PM ET (00:00 UTC Nov 14): the daily candle close; the difficulty retarget of about −8.2% is expected around the same time
  • Nov 14, 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC): expiry of 2,955 BTC on Deribit, max pain $72,500
  • Saturday, Nov 14: thin weekend liquidity and Middle East headlines (Iran, oil flows)
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 8:43 AM ET, about 45 minutes ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded near $69,900: down 3.6% in 24 hours, 7.8% in 7 days and 14.4% in 30 days.Binance
  • The 24-hour range was $67,568⁠–⁠72,720. The low printed overnight, shortly before 1:00 AM ET on Nov 13, during Asian hours; it is the lowest level since Aug 19.CoinDesk
  • US producer prices at 8:30 AM ET came in slightly below forecast, and Bitcoin climbed from $69,246 to $69,935 (up 1.0%) within five minutes, touching $70,214 at the peak. That five-minute bar traded 753 BTC on Binance, more than ten times the bars before it.Binance
5 more facts
  • Europe was calm: between 3:00 and 8:30 AM ET the price drifted up from $68,600 to $69,250 while hourly volume fell from 1,650 to 540 BTC. The overnight sellers stepped back.Binance
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 31,205 BTC (about $2.18 billion) versus 13,768 BTC two days earlier: the drop under $70,000 came on more than double the usual turnover.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap was about $1.41 trillion. The total crypto market stood at $2.35 trillion as of 8:30 AM ET (down 6.2% in 24 hours); BTC dominance 59.0%, ETH 10.1%.CoinGecko
  • Altcoins were holding up better than Bitcoin as of 8:43 AM ET: Ether $1,981 (down 1.6% in 24 hours, overnight low $1,896), Solana $82.14 (up 0.7%), XRP $1.04 (up 0.7%).Binance
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance, adjusted for the USDT rate, was about zero (−0.02%, −$16): US spot was neither selling harder than the rest of the market nor buying the dip ahead of the open. Bitcoin sat 44.5% below its $126,080 record of Oct 6, 2025.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) stood at 25.8 (as of 8:30 AM ET; 31.7 a day earlier): the market remains deep in oversold territory.Binance
  • MACD at −2,454 sat below its signal line at −1,794, with the histogram at −660 (−412 a day earlier): downside momentum is stronger than yesterday but stopped building during the day — the histogram read −699 overnight.Binance
  • The 200-week moving average sits at $67,879. The overnight low of $67,568 pierced it by about $300, but sellers failed to hold below: at the time of this brief the price was 3.0% above the average.CoinLab
7 more facts
  • The 200-day average at $73,137 was 4.6% above the price, putting the Mayer Multiple at 0.96; the 50-week average is $75,113.CoinLab
  • The price was below every exponential average: the 20-day EMA at $76,141, the 200-day EMA at $76,420 and the 50-day EMA at $78,245.Binance
  • Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan is watching the weekly RSI: losing 41.5, he said, opens the door to a test of the cycle low at $57,700. This is the first test of the 200-week average in 11 weeks.Cointelegraph
  • A momentum gauge tracked by CoinDesk has turned bearish. That has happened 24 times since 2012, and in roughly half of those cases Bitcoin went on to lose at least 16%.CoinDesk
  • Levels: resistance at $70,200 (post-PPI peak), $71,500 (Nov 12 close) and $73,100 (200-day average); support at $69,100 (pre-data base), $67,900 (200-week average) and $67,570 (24-hour low).Binance
  • Fractals: the two-week stretch (down 8.7%) resembles 6 past episodes, only 2 of which were followed by gains, with a median of −5.5%; the 50-day window shows 5 of 6 up with a median of +5.1%, the six-month window 5 of 6 up. This is statistics, not a promise.CoinLab
  • Polymarket put the median price for 12:00 PM ET on Nov 14 at $69,275 (interquartile range $68,266⁠–⁠70,519) and gave 32% to a price above $70,000 — a snapshot from 8:30 AM ET, before the PPI reaction. Our base range of $68,700⁠–⁠71,000 sits about $500 higher because it includes the post-data jump.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Liquidations across the crypto market reached $1.64 billion in 24 hours, of which $916 million were in Bitcoin futures. A day earlier the total was about $264 million.CoinDesk
  • The Binance feed showed $199.0 million of longs liquidated over 24 hours versus $16.4 million of shorts; the largest order was a 200 BTC long ($13.8 million) at $68,986. This is a lower bound: the exchange does not publish every fill.CoinLab
  • After the PPI print the picture flipped for an hour: between 8:00 and 8:43 AM ET Binance liquidated $4.5 million of shorts versus $0.2 million of longs. The jump to $70,200 was a brief short squeeze, not fresh spot buying.CoinLab
5 more facts
  • The largest single liquidation of the day market-wide was a Bitcoin long worth more than $31 million on Hyperliquid.CoinDesk
  • Open interest in Binance BTC futures was 100,889 BTC (about $6.98 billion): down 5.1% in dollar terms over 24 hours and 3.5% over the week. Deleveraging has sped up since the overnight reading (−3.1%).Binance
  • Eight-hour funding has flattened and in places turned negative: Binance −0.0001%, Bybit −0.0005%, OKX −0.0025%, Hyperliquid +0.01%. Per Glassnode, the market-wide average rate went negative for the first time in a month: shorts are paying longs.CoinDesk
  • The Binance long/short account ratio was 3.18 (76.1% long), and 2.31 among top traders: retail is still holding longs, which is fuel for more liquidations on a return below $68,000.Binance
  • The taker buy/sell ratio on Binance futures was 0.91: sellers remained the more aggressive side. CoinLab's squeeze index eased to +4 from +8 overnight.CoinLab

4Options

  • At 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC) 33,379 BTC of options expired on Deribit with max pain at $75,500: settlement came almost $7,000 lower and the calls expired worthless. Open interest after the expiry was 331,765 BTC ($23.0 billion) versus 359,073 BTC overnight.Deribit
  • Nearest series: Nov 14 holds 2,955 BTC with max pain at $72,500, and Nov 20 holds 15,310 BTC with max pain at $74,000 and a put/call ratio of 1.08: puts outnumber calls in the weekly.Deribit
  • The Nov 27 monthly expiry holds 83,594 BTC with max pain at $78,000 (put/call 0.91); the Dec 25 quarterly holds 143,422 BTC with max pain at $75,000. The price sat $8,100 below the monthly max pain.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The DVOL volatility index was 40.2 (42.3 a week ago): options imply a daily move of about ±2.1%, or ±$1,470. The slide to the 200-week average never triggered panic in options.Deribit
  • The put/call ratio across all open interest was 0.77. The 25-delta skew in the Dec 4 series was −4.9 points: puts cost more than calls, so downside protection stays bid.Deribit
  • Options traders were raising the odds of sub-$70,000 Bitcoin by Christmas back on Nov 11, and K33 head of research Vetle Lunde called the market "ripe for a squeeze" — the bet paid off within two days.The Block

5ETFs and institutions

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $47.7 million on Nov 12, a sixth straight session of outflows. BITB shed $26.4 million, ARKB $18.5 million and HODL $6.1 million; Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in $3.3 million.Coinpaper
  • Over the six days the funds lost about $1.44 billion: the heaviest sessions were Nov 5 (−$430.2 million), Nov 6 (−$411.9 million) and Nov 11 (−$299.8 million). Thursday's outflow was the smallest of the streak.CoinDesk
  • Year to date, spot Bitcoin ETFs are now more than $1.5 billion in net outflows. Cumulative inflows since launch stand at about $55.1 billion, with the funds holding 1.254 million BTC worth $92.8 billion (as of Nov 12).CoinDesk
6 more facts
  • Ether ETFs lost a preliminary $5.5 million on Nov 12 after −$144.8 million a day earlier; assets stand at $11.5 billion. Solana funds lost $5.8 million on Nov 11.CoinLab
  • Wintermute trader Jasper De Maere saw no convincing sign of large buyers on Nov 12: in his view only several consecutive days of steady ETF inflows would change the picture.The Block
  • Strategy holds 850,363 BTC at an average of $75,456: the price at the time of this brief was 7.3% below the company's cost basis. MSCI removes it from its indexes after Nov 30, a risk of passive selling in the stock.The Block
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of supply) worth about $90 billion.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto owes Kraken $165 million, more than its entire market value. Falling prices turn such Bitcoin-backed loans into a source of forced selling.CoinDesk
  • SpaceX and Tesla may announce a merger as soon as December, Bloomberg reported: SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC and Tesla 11,509 BTC, about 30,220 BTC worth $2.1 billion combined. The deal obliges no one to buy Bitcoin.CoinDesk

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index read 20 ("extreme fear") versus 28 both a day and a week ago; a month ago it was 62. The one-year low is 5.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature was 21 out of 100 (26 a day earlier): the coldest components are the distance to the 200-week average (1 out of 100) and RSI (10).CoinLab
  • MVRV stood at 1.42 (as of Nov 2), the 33rd percentile of its history; the price has fallen markedly since, so the current reading is lower.Coinmetrics
3 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis was about $75,831 (as of Nov 6): the price was 7.8% below it, leaving recent buyers under water.Bgeometrics
  • Stablecoin supply was $289.5 billion: down 1.6% over the week and 5.3% (−$16.1 billion) over 30 days. Money keeps leaving the market.Defillama
  • Polymarket for November (8:30 AM ET snapshot): a drop to $65,000 — 45.5% (53.5% overnight), to $62,500 — 25.5%, to $60,000 — 13.5%; a return to $72,500 — 58.5% (51.5% overnight), to $75,000 — 32.5%. Bets shifted toward a rebound during the day.Polymarket

7Mining

  • Hashrate was about 928 EH/s (945 two days ago), with difficulty at 148.4 T.mempool.space
  • The difficulty retarget is 65 blocks, or about 11 hours, away: it lands late in the evening of Nov 13 ET, with an estimated −8.2%. The previous adjustment was +5.5%; the cut will ease margins for the miners still online.mempool.space
  • Fees are back at the floor: 1 sat/vB for both fast and one-hour confirmation — the selloff created no backlog on the network.mempool.space
2 more facts
  • Block height was 975,679, with 74,321 blocks to the halving (estimated April 2028).mempool.space
  • Mining-rig maker Canaan may sell more of its Bitcoin to fund stock buybacks: revenue from equipment sales fell 96% (reported Nov 12).CoinDesk

8Macro

  • US producer prices (PPI) for October, 8:30 AM ET: up 0.3% on the month versus 0.4% expected (1.3% in September) and 6.5% on the year versus 6.6% expected (6.3% in September). Core matched forecasts: up 0.3% on the month and 5.0% on the year.Investinglive
  • The reaction was "slight relief": bids appeared in bonds and the dollar slipped modestly. Before the report the market priced 28.5 bp of hikes for December and 86 bp over the coming year.Investinglive
  • The US 10-year yield was 5.13⁠–⁠5.14% after the data versus 5.15% fifteen minutes before. It is up nearly 30 bp on the week, the worst week for bonds since the April 2025 tariff announcements; Jim Bianco says the yield rise is approaching the "epic" stage.CoinDesk
10 more facts
  • Futures were higher ahead of the open: S&P 500 up 0.7%, Nasdaq-100 up 0.7%, Dow up 323 points (0.6%). The indexes are heading for their best week since early August: the Nasdaq up 3.2%, the S&P 500 about 2.9%.CNBC
  • Nvidia was up more than 2% premarket after Thursday's 4% drop on Jensen Huang's exit. Microsoft was down about 3% on a global Outlook and Teams outage, and Cerebras jumped 16% on a surprise quarterly profit.CNBC
  • On Nov 12 the S&P 500 closed at 7,592.40 (down 0.35%) and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,366.09 (down 0.39%); the VIX was 18.2. Stocks have risen all week while Bitcoin fell: the Nasdaq link has not worked in crypto's favor.Yahoo Finance
  • The Fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00%, with the next meeting on Dec 8⁠–⁠9. CME FedWatch shows about 87% for a 25 bp hike and about 13% for 50 bp; Polymarket has 87.5%, 9.8% and 2.4% for no change.CNBC
  • For January, Polymarket gives another hike 59.5% versus 62.5% overnight: after October CPI of +0.4% (Nov 10) the market expects a series of hikes, and PPI did not undo that.Polymarket
  • The dollar index (DXY) was 103.25, near a 19-month high (up 0.9% in five days). The yen crossed 160 per dollar on Thursday, and Japan's finance minister warned of possible action.CNBC
  • Gold was about $3,889 an ounce (down 4.6% in five days): rising yields are hitting it too. Oil was little changed: WTI at $88.5, Brent above $96.Yahoo Finance
  • Asia closed mixed: the Nikkei up 0.5%, the Kospi down 1.0%, the Hang Seng down more than 1.5%. In Europe, Richemont fell 7% despite beating earnings expectations.Riotimesonline
  • Fed speakers on Nov 13: Susan Collins at 9:10 AM ET, Michelle Bowman at 10:50 AM ET and Philip Jefferson at 7:00 PM ET. The market will listen for any mention of a half-point move.Riotimesonline
  • Anthropic's IPO is roughly six times oversubscribed: the company is raising up to $64.4 billion plus a $26 billion private placement at a valuation of about $1.4 trillion. A deal of that size draws money away from risk assets; pricing is due Nov 18.CoinDesk

9Regulation and events

  • The White House sent four SEC and CFTC nominees to the Senate: Kristin Johnson and Steven Levine (to succeed Hester Peirce) for the SEC, Nathan Anonick and Matthew Rowland for the CFTC. The Senate Banking Committee hearing for the SEC nominees is set for Nov 19.Cryptotimes
  • The US Justice Department won court approval to seize more than $1.2 billion stolen in the Oct 29 Binance hack; authorities and private firms have frozen over $2.7 billion in total.The Block
  • Prediction markets are under pressure: Louisiana sued Kalshi, Robinhood and other venues, and Kalshi ended Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory contract over his fund 1789 Capital's investment in Polymarket.The Block
3 more facts
  • Middle East: Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed it destroyed a US radar in Bahrain, with no US confirmation; oil flows from the region are running at about 85% of pre-war levels, Barclays estimates.Investinglive
  • BTCS sold ether at a loss to keep a $64 million Aave loan from liquidation, and Zcash holders are voting on pulling 50,000 ZEC (about $50 million) from a grants treasury: the downturn has reached corporate treasuries.CoinDesk
  • Calendar: late Nov 13 ET — difficulty retarget (about −8.2%); Nov 17 — Nvidia earnings; Nov 18 — Fed minutes and Anthropic pricing; Nov 19 — SEC nominee hearing; Nov 25 — PCE; Nov 27 — monthly expiry of 83,594 BTC; Nov 30 — Strategy's removal from MSCI indexes; Dec 8⁠–⁠9 — Fed meeting.CoinDesk

How this brief’s forecast played out

DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 13, 2026 · morning, pre-market$69,913$66,998 (-3.2%) Sideways, 46%Pullbackno

Full forecast history · 55 briefs

Brief archive

Full archive by month