Bitcoin on November 13, 2026: overnight brief and outlook

After a 6.8% drop and $1.3 billion in liquidations, the market is leaning on the 200-week average at $67,879: RSI at 24.9, Fear & Greed at 20 and a Market Temperature of 21/100 mark a zone where sellers usually tire. Polymarket's median for 12:00 PM ET on Nov 14 is $68,701 with an interquartile range of $67,125⁠–⁠69,957, and DVOL at 40.6 implies a move of about ±$1,460. Funding is positive and open interest is down only 3%: there is neither capitulation nor a short build-up that would fuel a sharp bounce. The broken $70,000 level and ETF outflows cap the upside, so consolidation near the lows is most likely ahead of PPI.

The drivers of the drop are still in place: the 10-year Treasury yields 5.10%, the dollar is at a 19-month high, a December hike is fully priced and the odds of a half-point move are rising. PPI at 8:30 AM ET, after September's 1.3% surge, is a direct risk: a hot number would hit all risk assets. With 76.1% of Binance accounts long, there is room for another cascade below $68,300; under the 200-week average at $67,879 there are no nearby levels until $66,000⁠–⁠65,000. ETFs are losing money for a sixth session, the two-week fractal has a median of -5.5%, and Polymarket gives 53.5% odds of $65,000 being touched in November.

A daily RSI below 25 is rare and often ends in a technical bounce; the 50-day fractal shows 5 of 6 higher with a median of +5.1%. Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.6% Thursday evening and Nvidia recovered most of its drop. A soft PPI (below +0.4%) would take out some of the half-point hike bets and give a reason to reclaim $70,000 and head toward the Nov 12 close at $71,500. Above $72,500 within 24 hours is unlikely: the 200-day average at $73,137 sits there and ETF inflows are absent; Polymarket gives 24% odds of the price being above $70,000 at 12:00 PM ET tomorrow.