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Market cap$2.15T-9.9%BTC dominance58.5%Fear & Greed10BTC$62,539-8.5%ETH$1,723-10.6%BNB$573.06-9.0%XRP$0.9167-8.9%SOL$69.05-10.6%TRX$0.3061-1.8%HYPE$63.51-11.0%ZEC$853.28-8.1%XMR$470.38-10.9%DOGE$0.0565-12.3%
This is the archived brief for November 14, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Saturday, November 14, 2026

Bitcoin on November 14, 2026: overnight brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Nov 14, 12:50 AM ET · price at release $67,132Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET. US stock markets are closed today, but crypto trades around the clock, so the briefs run as usual

Overnight, as of 12:30 AM ET, Bitcoin traded at $67,132 (−2.2% over 24 hours): Friday's bounce to $70,214 gave way to late-evening selling, and around 11 PM ET it dropped to $66,456, below its 200-week average of $67,893 and the lowest since August.

  • The backdrop is heavy: a seventh straight day of spot ETF outflows ($185.5 million on Nov 13), a 5.15% 10-year Treasury yield and a near-certain Fed hike in December.
  • The base case for the next 24 hours is a sideways range of $66,000⁠–⁠68,500 (50%) in thin weekend liquidity with deeply oversold readings (RSI 22.9, Fear & Greed at 13); a pullback to $63,500⁠–⁠66,000 is 28% and a bounce to $68,500⁠–⁠70,500 is 22%.
Price when the brief was released
$67,132
Nov 14, 12:50 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 14, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$66,000–$68,500
50%
50%
28%
22%
Resistance
$67,900
$70,200
$72,000
Support
$66,450
$65,000
$62,750
Sideways · 50%
$66,000–$68,500

A weekend with no US data and closed exchanges: after the overnight flush to $66,456, sellers are running into deep oversold readings (RSI 22.9, Fear & Greed at 13), and open interest fell 7.2% in 24 hours, so excess leverage is already gone. DVOL at 42 implies about ±$1,480, and Polymarket's Nov 15 median is $67,146 with an interquartile range of $66,137⁠–⁠68,312. Consolidation around the 200-week MA at $67,893 is most likely.

Pullback · 28%
$63,500–$66,000

The trend is still down: MACD momentum is accelerating, ETFs have bled for seven sessions, the 10-year yields 5.15%, the dollar is at its highest since April 2025 and a December hike is all but certain. With 76% of Binance accounts long, a break below $66,450 could trigger another cascade, and thin weekend liquidity amplifies moves. Polymarket gives 69.5% odds of $65,000 being touched in November.

Breakout · 22%
$68,500–$70,500

An oversold bounce: RSI below 25 often ends in a short squeeze higher, funding is near zero and a 14% put skew shows the market is already hedged. Reclaiming the 200-week MA at $67,893 would open the way to $70,000⁠–⁠70,200, Friday's high, where longs were flushed. Without ETF inflows, clearing $70,500 within a day looks hard.

What to watch today
  • Holding the 200-week MA at $67,893: a close above signals a bounce, a break below $66,450 opens $65,000
  • 4,168 BTC in Deribit options expire today at 08:00 UTC (3 AM ET), max pain $71,000
  • Daily candle close at 00:00 UTC on Nov 15 (7 PM ET Saturday) and the weekly close on Nov 16: a sixth straight weekly loss
  • Thin weekend liquidity: US markets and ETFs reopen only on Monday, Nov 16, at 9:30 AM ET
  • Strategy's Monday purchase filing and Fed Chair Warsh's remarks on Nov 16
  • US retail sales Nov 17 at 8:30 AM ET, FOMC minutes Nov 18 at 2 PM ET, Anthropic trading from Nov 19
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • Overnight, as of 12:30 AM ET, Bitcoin traded at $67,132: down 2.2% over 24 hours, 11.5% over 7 days and 18.4% over 30 days.Binance
  • The 24-hour range was $66,456⁠–⁠70,214. Friday's bounce topped at $70,214 in the US session, but selling resumed after 9 PM ET: Bitcoin shed over $1,800, hitting $66,456 around 11 PM ET — its lowest since August.Binance
  • The weekly range is $66,456⁠–⁠76,200 and the monthly $66,456⁠–⁠84,898. The next major low is $62,751, set in August.Binance
5 more facts
  • Spot BTC/USDT volume on Binance over 24 hours was 25,350 BTC (about $1.73 billion).Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap stands at $1.35 trillion with 58.8% dominance; the total crypto market lost 4.1% in 24 hours to $2.29 trillion.CoinGecko
  • Bitcoin sits 46.8% below its all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025); it is down 31.4% over a year and 21% year to date.CoinDesk
  • Bitcoin is heading for a sixth straight weekly loss, matching the Q1 streak that bottomed near $60,000; the record is nine weeks in 2022. The weekly candle closes at 00:00 UTC on Nov 16 (7 PM ET Sunday).CoinDesk
  • Ether broke below $2,000 on Nov 13, bottoming near $1,900, its lowest since Aug 18; Solana slipped under $80 and the CoinDesk 20 index fell 2% on the day.CoinDesk

2Technical analysis

  • The daily RSI(14) is 22.9 (24.9 a day earlier), the deepest oversold reading of this decline.Binance
  • MACD at −2,919 sits below its signal line at −2,031, with the histogram at −888 (−699 a day earlier): downside momentum is still building.Binance
  • Price trades below every key average: the 20-day EMA at $75,202 (−10.7%), 50-day EMA at $77,774, 200-day EMA at $76,280 and 50-week MA at $75,071.Binance
5 more facts
  • Overnight Bitcoin slipped 1.1% below its 200-week moving average of $67,893, historically the floor of bear markets; reclaiming it is the bulls' first test.Coinmetrics
  • The Mayer Multiple (price over the 200-day average of $73,092) is 0.918: below 1, but far from the capitulation zones of 2018 and 2022.Coinmetrics
  • The nearest resistance is $67,900 (the 200-week MA), then $70,000⁠–⁠70,200 (Friday's high) and $72,000. Supports are $66,450 (the overnight low), $65,000 and $62,750 (the August low).Binance
  • CoinLab fractals: the six closest two-week historical matches produced a median +0.6% over the next 14 days (3 of 6 up); on the 50-day window, 4 of 6 rose with a median +2.4%.CoinLab
  • Polymarket's median for 12 PM ET on Nov 15 is $67,146, with an interquartile range of $66,137⁠–⁠68,312; the Nov 15 up/down market is split 50.5% to 49.5%. Our base sideways range of $66,000⁠–⁠68,500 matches it.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Crypto-wide liquidations hit $1.64 billion over 24 hours on Nov 13, 88.7% of them longs; Bitcoin futures accounted for $916 million, 95.2% longs.CoinDesk
  • The largest single liquidation was a $31.1 million Bitcoin long on Hyperliquid at $72,250.CoinDesk
  • On Binance's BTCUSDT feed (a lower-bound estimate), $173 million in longs and $19 million in shorts were wiped out on Nov 13 UTC; overnight into Nov 14, another $30 million in longs versus $1.7 million in shorts.Binance
5 more facts
  • Open interest in Binance BTCUSDT futures is 96,257 BTC ($6.46 billion), down 7.2% in 24 hours and 10.6% over the week: leverage is leaving, which lowers the risk of new cascades.Binance
  • Funding is near zero: Binance at 0.0039% per 8h (4.3% annualized), OKX at 1.6%, Bybit at −0.15% and Hyperliquid at 11%. Binance's 30-day average is 0.0070%.Bybit
  • On Binance, 76.4% of accounts are long (ratio 3.23) versus 2.11 among top traders; taker buy/sell is 0.90. Retail keeps trying to catch the bottom, leaving fuel for further selling.Binance
  • CoinLab's squeeze score is 13 of 100: positioning isn't skewed enough to expect a violent squeeze either way; the main signal is the sharpest open-interest drop of the month.CoinLab
  • Crypto futures volume jumped 58.3% to $269.1 billion on Nov 13, while market-wide open interest fell 4.6% to $120.2 billion.CoinDesk

4Options

  • The DVOL volatility index is 42.1 (39.4 a week ago): options imply a daily move of about ±2.2%, or ±$1,480.Deribit
  • Deribit options open interest is 356,259 BTC ($23.9 billion), with a put/call ratio of 0.74.Deribit
  • Today at 08:00 UTC (3 AM ET), 4,168 BTC in options expire with max pain at $71,000 and put/call at 1.01; tomorrow 3,094 BTC expire with max pain at $69,500. Both are too small to move price.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The Nov 20 weekly expiry holds 27,137 BTC with max pain at $73,000; the Nov 27 monthly holds 87,124 BTC with max pain at $77,000 and put/call at 0.86.Deribit
  • The Dec 25 expiry is the largest: 143,381 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
  • The 25-delta skew is about 14% in favor of puts, so downside protection carries a hefty premium; one-week implied volatility peaked near 43%.CoinDesk

5ETFs and institutions

  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $185.5 million on Nov 13, a seventh straight day of outflows: IBIT lost $143.5 million and FBTC $41.9 million, with the other funds flat.Tokenpost
  • The funds lost $1.07 billion over the five sessions from Nov 9 to 13 and have now flipped to about $1.56 billion in net outflows for 2026, versus $1.01 billion of inflows as recently as Oct 29.CoinDesk
  • For context, full-year 2025 inflows were $21.37 billion and 2024 inflows $35.24 billion. 2026 has already logged 12 weeks with outflows above $500 million.CoinDesk
7 more facts
  • US spot Ether ETFs took in $2.4 million on Nov 13 by preliminary data, ending a six-session outflow streak: FETH added $11.6 million while Grayscale's ETH lost $9.3 million.Tokenpost
  • MSCI confirmed on Nov 11 that Strategy will be removed from its global indexes after the Nov 30 close: tracking funds hold about 13 million shares (3.1%), and JPMorgan estimated about $2.8 billion in MSTR outflows.Investing.com
  • Strategy's latest purchase (Nov 2⁠–⁠8) added 1,036 BTC for $81.9 million at $79,012; it holds 850,364 BTC at an average cost of $75,456, now 11% above market. Its next filing usually lands on Monday.SEC
  • Public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of supply, 181 firms); after Strategy, the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC) and Twenty One Capital (43,514 BTC).CoinGecko
  • Tether-backed Twenty One Capital reported $1.09 billion in Q3 net income on Bitcoin gains; JPMorgan raised its Strategy stake by 36% in the quarter and held $540 million in IBIT.The Block
  • Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto owes Kraken $165 million, more than its entire market value, a sign of the strain falling prices put on leveraged treasury companies.CoinDesk
  • SpaceX-Tesla merger talks put the combined group's 30,000 BTC (about $2.1 billion) back in focus; a deal could be announced as soon as December.CoinDesk

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is at 13 (Extreme Fear), down from 20 a day ago, 25 a week ago and 53 a month ago. The yearly low is 5.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature is 20 of 100 (21 a day ago); the coldest components are RSI (5 points) and distance to the 200-week MA (0).CoinLab
  • The short-term holder cost basis is $75,839 (as of Nov 7): the market is 11% below it, leaving most recently bought coins underwater.Glassnode
5 more facts
  • MVRV stood at 1.42 (as of Nov 2), the 33rd historical percentile: holders are still in profit on average, but the cushion is shrinking.Coinmetrics
  • Glassnode's Week 46 pulse: the share of supply in profit fell to 60.6% and the market is cooling rather than capitulating; large wallets resumed accumulating after the long flush.Glassnode
  • The Coinbase premium is flat (+0.002%): US buyers show no extra demand over offshore exchanges.Coinbase
  • Stablecoin supply is $288.8 billion, down 1.5% over a week and 5.4% over 30 days (−$16.3 billion): liquidity is leaving crypto.Defillama
  • On Nov 13, two dormant addresses from the 2010 era moved 100 BTC, bought for about $6 and now worth about $6.9 million.The Block

7Mining

  • Network difficulty fell 9.1% at block 975,744, from 148.4T to 134.8T, as miners switched off rigs with price below production cost.mempool.space
  • Hashrate is about 905 EH/s (about 929 a day earlier). The next retarget is due around Nov 29; the early −6.8% estimate is unreliable with only 2 blocks into the epoch.mempool.space
  • Hashprice was about $31.89 per PH/s per day on Nov 12, down 9.5% recently; the difficulty cut should partly restore it.Cryptoticker
3 more facts
  • Average production cost is estimated near $78,000 per BTC, 14% above market, so pressure on miners and their selling persists.247wallst
  • Fees are minimal at 1 sat/vB for fast confirmation; the network is quiet.mempool.space
  • Block height is 975,746; the halving is 74,254 blocks away, estimated for Apr 12, 2028.mempool.space

8Macro

  • US producer prices rose 0.3% in October and 6.5% year over year, the fastest in nearly four years but slightly below forecasts (0.4% and 6.6%); core PPI rose 0.3% and 5.0%.CNBC
  • US stocks ended Friday mixed: the S&P 500 closed at 7,561.67 (−0.4%), the Nasdaq at 25,136.27 (−0.91%) and the Dow at 52,347.55 (+0.1%). All three gained 2.1⁠–⁠2.5% on the week.Yahoo Finance
  • Nvidia posted its worst week since April 2025 after Jensen Huang's ouster; analysts see no direct link to Bitcoin, pointing instead to broad de-risking and capital raised for the Anthropic IPO.CoinDesk
6 more facts
  • The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.15% (+5 bp on the day, +31 bp on the week) and the 2-year 4.88% (+42 bp over 5 days), the steepest weekly jump since April 2025.CNBC
  • The Dollar Index is at 103.41 (+1.1% over 5 days), its highest since April 2025; a strong dollar weighs on Bitcoin and gold.Yahoo Finance
  • The Fed funds range is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00%. Polymarket prices an 88.5% chance of a 25 bp hike on Dec 8⁠–⁠9 and 7.9% for 50+ bp; January shows 57% for another hike.Polymarket
  • Fed officials backed tightening this week: Waller floated a 50 bp December hike if inflation worsens, Collins and Daly leaned toward hikes, and Logan signaled at least two more 25 bp moves.Investing.com
  • Gold is at $3,886 (−4.6% over 5 days), oil at $88.56 (−2.5%) and the VIX at 19.3 (+3.2% on the day).Yahoo Finance
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 closed Friday up 0.54% as chip stocks recovered; Asian exchanges are shut for the weekend, so Bitcoin trades in thin liquidity.Investing.com

9Regulation and events

  • Anthropic IPO: a $70⁠–⁠78 range, up to $64.4 billion raised at a valuation of up to $1.4 trillion; pricing is set for Nov 18, with Nasdaq trading as ANT from Nov 19. Bloomberg reports the book about 6x oversubscribed.Yahoo Finance
  • Before SpaceX's June IPO, Bitcoin fell 19% over 50 days and rebounded once trading began; ahead of Anthropic the drop is already 18%, and some analysts expect a similar pattern.CoinDesk
  • Week ahead: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Monday, Nov 16; October retail sales land Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET (forecast +0.2%), with Nvidia earnings after the close; FOMC minutes are due Wednesday at 2 PM ET.Kiplinger
4 more facts
  • The minutes will show the case of two dissenters, Cook and Hammack, who voted for a 25 bp hike back in October.Newsquawk
  • The DOJ and CFTC sued Arkansas on Nov 13 to block state enforcement against Kalshi; CFTC Chair Michael Selig accused states of trying to lock up prediction-market founders.The Block
  • The CLARITY market-structure bill remains stalled after failing a 49⁠–⁠50 Senate cloture vote in September; no breakthrough is expected before the new Congress.Americanbanker
  • The central banks of the UK, Singapore and Thailand completed an FX settlement trial linking traditional and tokenized systems; Thailand is proposing a roughly $148,000 daily cap on certain stablecoin transfers.The Block

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