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Market cap$2.28T-4.4%BTC dominance58.7%Fear & Greed13BTC$66,908-2.5%ETH$1,894-1.4%BNB$617.18-2.2%XRP$0.9916-2.0%SOL$75.54-3.9%TRX$0.3122+0.4%HYPE$68.64-3.3%ZEC$906.10+0.1%XMR$527.23+2.4%DOGE$0.0628-1.4%
This is the archived brief for November 12, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Thursday, November 12, 2026

Bitcoin on November 12, 2026: pre-market brief and outlook

Morning brief · before the US open · Nov 12, 8:47 AM ET · price at release $72,591Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

As of 8:44 AM ET, 45 minutes ahead of the opening bell, Bitcoin traded near $72,600 (down 1.7% in 24 hours): during the European session it broke the 200-day average at $73,173 and set a 30-day low of $72,234, following Nvidia (down 7% premarket) and a fifth day of ETF outflows ($299.9 million).

  • The 8:30 AM ET jobless claims print, 200,000 versus 195,000 expected, did not move the market.
  • The base case for the next 24 hours is a range of $71,600⁠–⁠73,700 (45%) around the broken average; the risk of a pullback to $69,500⁠–⁠71,600 (33%) lies in the Nasdaq open, five Fed speakers and tomorrow's PPI.
Price when the brief was released
$72,591
Nov 12, 8:47 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 12, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$71,600–$73,700
45%
45%
33%
22%
Resistance
$73,200
$74,000
$74,800
Support
$72,200
$71,200
$70,000
Sideways · 45%
$71,600–$73,700

The new low at $72,234 came without a spike in volume or volatility: DVOL is 38.8 and long liquidations on the break were only $13 million in an hour. Polymarket's median for 12:00 PM ET on Nov 13 is $72,705 with an interquartile range of $71,223⁠–⁠73,841, and options imply a move of about ±$1,470. An RSI of 31.7 near oversold and negative funding on Hyperliquid restrain sellers, while the broken 200-day average at $73,173 and ETF outflows restrain buyers. Jobless claims did not move the market, and the main report, PPI, lands only at the end of the 24-hour window.

Pullback · 33%
$69,500–$71,600

The 200-day average has broken, analysts call the slip back under the 50-week average a failed breakout, and Wintermute sees the next level at $68,000. Correlation with the Nasdaq is 0.75, and Nvidia is down 7.5% premarket, dragging Nasdaq-100 futures 0.6⁠–⁠0.9% lower: a weak open at 9:30 AM ET would hit Bitcoin too. ETFs have bled for five sessions (IBIT for nine), the 10-year yields 5.01%, a December hike is priced at 87⁠–⁠90%, and today brings five Fed speakers and a 30-year auction. With 72.6% of Binance accounts still long, there is fuel for a cascade below $72,200; Polymarket gives 65.5% odds of a touch of $70,000 in November.

Breakout · 22%
$73,700–$75,500

An RSI of 31.7, fear (28) and a market temperature of 25/100 mark a zone where technical bounces are common; the 50-day fractal shows 5 of 6 up. Jobless claims came in above forecast and gave hawks no new ammunition, while negative funding on Hyperliquid shows shorts piling in at the lows. If Nvidia and the Nasdaq recover after the open and Fed speakers do not turn more hawkish, a move back above $73,200⁠–⁠73,700 opens the way to $74,800 and the 50-week average at $75,180; max pain for tomorrow's expiry is $76,000. Above $75,500 within 24 hours looks unlikely without a turn in ETF flows.

What to watch today
  • 9:30 AM ET: the US open — whether Nvidia holds $160 and where the Nasdaq goes; news on the board's decision on Jensen Huang
  • Fed speakers: Hammack (9:00 AM ET), Barr (10:00 AM), Goolsbee (11:15 AM), Daly (1:10 PM), Schmid (1:30 PM)
  • 10:00 AM ET: US existing home sales; 1:00 PM ET — the $25 billion 30-year bond auction and the 10-year yield's reaction near 5%
  • A reclaim of the 200-day average at $73,173 or acceptance below the $72,234 low
  • 4:05 PM ET: Cisco earnings; this evening — Thursday's spot Bitcoin ETF flows (a sixth day of outflows or a reversal); 7:00 PM ET (00:00 UTC) — the daily candle close
  • Nov 13, 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC): 33,192 BTC expire on Deribit, max pain $76,000; difficulty retarget of about −7.7%
  • Nov 13, 8:30 AM ET: October PPI, the week's main report after CPI
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 8:44 AM ET, 45 minutes before the opening bell, Bitcoin traded near $72,600: down 1.7% in 24 hours, 4.6% in 7 days and 12.7% in 30 days.Binance
  • The 24-hour range was $72,234⁠–⁠74,811. The low printed around 8:10 AM ET on Nov 12 and is the lowest level in 30 days: Tuesday's floor at $72,727 gave way.Binance
  • Asia was quiet overnight, but Europe sold: from about $73,600 early in the European morning the price slid roughly $1,000, tracking Nasdaq-100 futures and Nvidia, down about 7% premarket.CoinDesk
5 more facts
  • The 8:30 AM ET jobless claims print barely moved Bitcoin: $72,590 at the release and $72,635 fifteen minutes later.Binance
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 13,768 BTC (about $1.02 billion): the decline is not coming with a volume spike.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap was about $1.46 trillion and the total crypto market $2.43 trillion (down 4.3% in 24 hours); BTC dominance 59.8%, ETH 10.1%.CoinGecko
  • Altcoins fell harder as of 8:42 AM ET: Ether $2,013 (down 1.9% in 24 hours), Solana $81.61 (down 3.1%), XRP $1.035 (down 2.1%).Binance
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance, adjusted for the USDT rate, was about zero (−0.01%, −$8): US buyers were not stepping in ahead of the open. Bitcoin sat 42.5% below its $126,080 record of Oct 6, 2025.Coinbase

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) stood at 31.7, less than two points from the formal oversold line at 30.Binance
  • MACD at −2,023 sat below its signal line at −1,611, with the histogram at −412 and widening: downside momentum has built since the Asian session.Binance
  • The 200-day simple moving average at $73,173 has broken: the price was 0.8% below it, with the Mayer Multiple at 0.99. The average held the market for three days and now becomes the nearest resistance.CoinLab
6 more facts
  • The price was below the 20-day EMA ($76,975), the 200-day EMA ($76,668) and the 50-day EMA ($78,657); the 50-week average sits at $75,180.Binance
  • Analysts call the slip back under the 50-week average a failed breakout: Galaxy research head Alex Thorn had read September's move above it as the start of a new bull run, which is what followed in four of five prior cycles.CoinDesk
  • Wintermute sees $68,000 as the next level down, which lines up with the 200-week average ($68,154, 6.5% below the price); it says a reclaim of $80,000 would change its cautious view.CoinDesk
  • Levels: support at $72,200 (the day's low), $71,200 (the lower quartile of Polymarket bets) and $70,000; resistance at $73,200 (200-day average), $74,000 and $74,800 (the 24-hour high).Binance
  • Fractals: the two-week stretch (−7.3%) resembles 6 past episodes, 3 of which were followed by gains (median +4.4%); the 50-day window shows 5 of 6 up with a median of +2.2%. This is statistics, not a promise.CoinLab
  • Polymarket puts the median price for 12:00 PM ET on Nov 13 at $72,705 (interquartile range $71,223⁠–⁠73,841) and gives 52.5% odds that Bitcoin will be higher than at the time of this brief. Our base-case range of $71,600⁠–⁠73,700 sits inside that corridor.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Open interest in Binance BTC futures was 100,510 BTC (about $7.29 billion): down 1.3% in 24 hours and 3.8% in a week.Binance
  • Across crypto, open interest fell 2.9% to $125.8 billion and futures volume dropped 20.6% to $168.6 billion in the 24 hours to early Nov 12; Bitcoin open interest fell 2.9% with negative cumulative volume delta, meaning sellers were the aggressors.CoinDesk
  • Market-wide liquidations over the same 24 hours were $263.7 million (down 64% from the day before), 64.5% of them longs; Bitcoin led with $62.9 million.CoinDesk
5 more facts
  • The break of the low flushed longs: Binance's feed showed $13.2 million of long liquidations versus $0.1 million of shorts in the hour before this brief, the largest a 55 BTC ($3.99 million) order at $72,377 at 8:10 AM ET (a lower-bound estimate).CoinLab
  • Funding per 8 hours: Binance 0.0075%, OKX 0.0071%, Bybit 0.0053%, Hyperliquid −0.0036% (from −4% to +8% annualized): on Hyperliquid the rate has flipped negative, so shorts are paying longs there.Binance
  • Binance's long/short account ratio was 2.65 (72.6% long), with top traders at 2.29: retail stayed long even at the new low.Binance
  • The taker buy/sell ratio on Binance futures was 1.01; CoinLab's squeeze index read +1 (versus +11 overnight): the tilt toward a short squeeze is gone.CoinLab
  • Market-wide perpetual open interest was about 353,000 BTC on Nov 10, higher on only 1.2% of days in two years; K33 research head Vetle Lunde called the market "ripe for a squeeze" in either direction.The Block

4Options

  • Tomorrow, Nov 13, at 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC), 33,192 BTC of options expire on Deribit with max pain at $76,000 and a put/call ratio of 0.51: the calls above the market expire worthless unless the price recovers $3,400.Deribit
  • The Nov 27 monthly expiry holds 80,405 BTC with max pain at $79,000; the Dec 25 expiry holds 142,474 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
  • The DVOL volatility index was 38.8 (38.1 a week ago): options imply a daily move of about ±2.0%, or ±$1,470. The new low did not trigger a volatility spike.Deribit
3 more facts
  • The put/call ratio across all open interest was 0.74; open interest stood at 350,856 BTC ($25.5 billion).Deribit
  • One-week puts trade about 11 volatility points over calls, while one-week implied volatility eased to 35% from 38% on Tuesday (as of early Nov 12); December 25-delta puts carry a 3.7-point premium over calls.CoinDesk
  • Four of the six most-traded contracts were calls, led by the $80,000 call for Dec 25; the two puts were the $73,000 and $74,000 strikes expiring Nov 13: traders hedge the downside near term and bet on a rebound into year-end.CoinDesk

5ETFs and institutions

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $299.9 million on Nov 11, a fifth straight day of outflows. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for nearly all of it: −$269.7 million, its ninth consecutive session of redemptions.CoinDesk
  • The preliminary overnight tally (−$30 million, excluding IBIT) proved ten times too mild; among the rest, GBTC lost $39.1 million and Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in $9.0 million.CoinLab
  • Over the five sessions from Nov 5 to Nov 11 the funds shed about $1.44 billion; cumulative net inflows slipped to roughly $55.1 billion, with about 1.26 million BTC held.CoinDesk
4 more facts
  • Ether ETFs lost $9.7 million on Nov 11 (assets $11.69 billion); Solana funds lost $10.6 million on Nov 10.CoinLab
  • MSCI dropped Strategy from the MSCI USA index on Nov 11 (effective after the Nov 30 close); the shares fell 2.6% to $119.06 after hours. Marex analysts note that exclusion does not by itself mean Bitcoin sales, though it could make raising money for purchases harder.The Block
  • Strategy holds 850,363 BTC at an average cost of $75,456: the price at the time of this brief was 3.8% below the company's cost basis; it has reported no sales.CoinDesk
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of supply) worth about $94 billion; after Strategy the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One (43,514) and Strive (43,153).CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index read 28 ("fear"): 29 a day ago and 50 a week ago.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature was 25 out of 100 (27 a day ago): across eight cycle metrics the market keeps cooling.CoinLab
  • MVRV was 1.42 (as of Nov 2), the 33rd percentile of its history: holders sit on an average profit of about 42%.Coinmetrics
4 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis was about $75,911 (as of Nov 5): the price was 4.4% below it, leaving recent buyers underwater.Bgeometrics
  • Stablecoin supply was $290.8 billion: down 1.5% in a week and 4.8% (−$14.8 billion) in 30 days.Defillama
  • Glassnode calls the 30-day contraction in the largest stablecoins ($14.2 billion) the biggest since the 2022 bear market: redemptions are draining money from the market.The Block
  • Polymarket for November: a drop to $70,000 is priced at 65.5% (51.5% overnight), to $67,500 at 37.5% and to $65,000 at 22.5%; a touch of $77,500 at 40.5% and of $80,000 at 21.5%.Polymarket

7Mining

  • Hashrate was about 945 EH/s and difficulty 148.4 T.mempool.space
  • The difficulty retarget is due around Nov 13 (188 blocks away, epoch 91% complete), estimated at −7.7%: miners are switching off machines after the price drop; the previous adjustment was +5.5%.mempool.space
  • Fees were low: 2 sat/vB for fast confirmation and 1 sat/vB within the hour; block height 975,556, with 74,444 blocks to the halving (estimated April 2028).mempool.space
2 more facts
  • Mining-rig maker Canaan may sell more of its Bitcoin to fund buybacks after its rig revenue fell 96%.CoinDesk
  • Bitcoin Core developers on Nov 10 disclosed three already-patched vulnerabilities, including a high-severity one that could stop affected mining nodes from building valid block templates.The Block

8Macro

  • The 8:30 AM ET data: US initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov 7 came in at 200,000 versus a 195,000 forecast; the prior week was revised to 191,000 from 189,000.Dol
  • Continuing claims were 1.697 million (down 20,000) versus a 1.71 million forecast; the four-week average held at 195,250. Layoffs remain low, which keeps the case for a Fed hike intact.Dol
  • Futures ahead of the open: Nasdaq-100 down 0.6⁠–⁠0.9%, S&P 500 down 0.3⁠–⁠0.4%, Dow about flat. Nvidia accounts for more than half of the Nasdaq-100 decline.CNBC
9 more facts
  • Nvidia traded near $160.6 premarket (down 7.5%), below its $164⁠–⁠169 support zone: the board met Wednesday to discuss Jensen Huang's future, with no decision announced as of this brief. AMD and Broadcom rose on the news.Investinglive
  • On Wednesday, Nov 11, the S&P 500 closed at 7,619.38 (+1.3%) and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,466.19 (+1.6%); the VIX was at 19.1 before Thursday's open (up 9% on the day).Yahoo Finance
  • Europe was higher: DAX +0.6%, CAC 40 +0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.2%; the tech-light STOXX 600 closed at a record 663.04 on Wednesday.Investinglive
  • US yields rose in the morning: the 2-year at 4.77% (+4 bp), the 10-year at 5.01% (+2 bp), the 30-year at 5.36%; the Treasury sells $25 billion of 30-year bonds at 1:00 PM ET.Investinglive
  • The Fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00%, with the next meeting on Dec 8⁠–⁠9. Polymarket: a 25 bp hike at 86.5%, 50 bp or more at 11.1%, no change at 3.5%; CME FedWatch shows about 90% for a hike. Another hike in January is priced at 54.5%.Polymarket
  • Five Fed officials speak today: Hammack (9:00 AM ET), Barr (10:00 AM), Goolsbee (11:15 AM), Daly (1:10 PM) and Schmid (1:30 PM); existing home sales are due at 10:00 AM ET (forecast 3.85 million).Financialjuice
  • The dollar index DXY was at 102.95 (+1.4% over five days); it briefly topped 103 this week, the highest since March 2025. USD/JPY was 159.64, near the 160 mark where markets expect intervention.CoinDesk
  • Gold traded near $3,930 an ounce (down 1.3⁠–⁠1.8% on the day, 4.5% over five days): like Bitcoin, it is under pressure from rate-hike bets and a firm dollar.Investinglive
  • Oil: Brent near $92, WTI at $85.9⁠–⁠87.7 depending on the source; higher Middle East output is offsetting risks around the Strait of Hormuz.Financialjuice

9Regulation and events

  • The CLARITY market-structure bill is effectively tabled until January, Forbes wrote on Nov 11: the Senate fell short on cloture on Sept 15 (49⁠–⁠50), and Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the midterms.Forbes
  • The SEC on Nov 11 backed the CFTC in court in the fight over perpetual contracts on US stocks: the suit seeking to void the approvals was filed by the Capital Markets Alliance, whose members include Cboe and Citadel Securities.The Block
  • OKXICE, the joint venue of OKX and Intercontinental Exchange, launches tokenized securities trading on Nov 23 under the SEC's innovation exemption.The Block
3 more facts
  • The industry is retrenching: Gemini is selling its UK and European operations to KAST for under $10 million, Polymarket is cutting jobs amid competition from Kalshi, and Nomura is weighing a sale of its crypto arm Laser Digital.CoinDesk
  • Cisco reports after the close at 4:05 PM ET (revenue forecast $18.11 billion); for Nvidia, quarterly earnings are due Nov 17 and a House hearing featuring Huang on Nov 18.Financialjuice
  • Calendar: Nov 13 — PPI at 8:30 AM ET, the 33,192 BTC expiry and the difficulty retarget; Nov 18 — Fed minutes; Nov 25 — PCE; Nov 27 — monthly expiry; Nov 30 — Strategy leaves MSCI; Dec 8⁠–⁠9 — Fed meeting.CoinDesk

How this brief’s forecast played out

DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
November 12, 2026 · morning, pre-market$72,591$69,204 (-5.1%) Sideways, 45%Pullbackno

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