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Market cap$2.43T-4.8%BTC dominance59.7%Fear & Greed28BTC$71,649-2.7%ETH$2,006-2.3%BNB$654.95-3.8%XRP$1.03-2.5%SOL$81.41-3.3%TRX$0.3155-0.3%HYPE$71.08-2.7%ZEC$982.77+0.0%XMR$545.29-6.6%DOGE$0.0654-4.1%
This is the archived brief for November 12, 2026: price and forecast as of that morning. Open today’s
Thursday, November 12, 2026

Bitcoin on November 12, 2026: overnight brief and outlook

Overnight brief · Nov 12, 12:46 AM ET · price at release $73,620Two briefs a day: overnight at 12:30 AM ET and in the morning at 9:00 AM ET, half an hour before the US stock market opens

Overnight, as of 12:46 AM ET, Bitcoin traded at $73,620 (-0.2% over 24 hours): while the US slept it held a $73,500⁠–⁠74,200 band through the Asian session, having skipped the Nasdaq's 1.6% rally and barely noticing Nvidia's 7⁠–⁠8% after-hours drop.

  • The base case for the next 24 hours is a $72,700⁠–⁠74,900 range (47%): the 200-day average at $73,173 is holding, Polymarket's median for tomorrow is $73,595, and today's data (jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET) is second-tier.
  • The pullback risk toward $70,500 (31%) comes from Nasdaq futures reversing on Nvidia, a fifth day of ETF outflows and the US bond market reopening after the holiday.
Price when the brief was released
$73,620
Nov 12, 12:46 AM ET

Bitcoin price prediction for November 12, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$72,700–$74,900
47%
47%
31%
22%
Resistance
$74,800
$75,200
$76,000
Support
$73,200
$72,700
$72,000
Sideways · 47%
$72,700–$74,900

Bitcoin has spent three days in a $73,400⁠–⁠74,800 band, reacting to neither the rally nor the drop in stocks. Polymarket's median for 12:00 PM ET on Nov 13 is $73,595 with an interquartile range of $72,405⁠–⁠75,000, today's expiry has max pain at $74,000, and DVOL at 38.9 implies a move of about ±$1,500. Funding is moderate (3⁠–⁠11% annualized), liquidations are small, the squeeze index is neutral (+11) and ETF outflows slowed to $30 million. The 200-day at $73,173 and Tuesday's low of $72,727 hold from below; the 24-hour high of $74,811 and the 50-week at $75,201 cap from above; the only data today is jobless claims.

Pullback · 31%
$70,500–$72,700

The Nasdaq correlation is 0.75, and Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.8⁠–⁠1.0% on reports that Nvidia's CEO may be ousted: if the equity rebound fails, Bitcoin — which skipped the rally — may still join the drop. The US bond market reopens after the holiday with 85.5% odds of a December hike and Deutsche Bank calling for three hikes in a row; the dollar is up for a fifth day. ETFs have bled for five sessions, stablecoins are shrinking the most since 2022, MSCI dropped Strategy, and market-wide open interest is near its highs with retail 72.6% long — fuel for a cascade. A close below the 200-day at $73,173 and a break of $72,727 would open the way to $70,500⁠–⁠72,000.

Breakout · 22%
$74,900–$76,800

Fear (28), RSI at 34, a market temperature of 27/100 and the 50-day fractal (5 of 6 up) mark a typical zone for a technical bounce, and record open interest cuts both ways: K33 sees the market as ripe for a squeeze, and the squeeze index has tilted slightly toward shorts. If Nvidia does not drag the Nasdaq down and jobless claims and yields do not spook the market, a move back above $74,900⁠–⁠75,200 opens the way to the short-term holder cost basis at $75,911, Friday's max pain at $76,000 and the EMA200 at $76,679; above $76,800 within 24 hours is unlikely without a turn in ETF flows.

What to watch today
  • 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC): 3,287 BTC expire on Deribit, max pain $74,000
  • Through the morning: news on the Nvidia board's decision on Jensen Huang and the reaction in Nasdaq-100 futures
  • 8:30 AM ET: weekly US jobless claims; the bond market reopens after the holiday — watch where 2- and 10-year yields go
  • 9:30 AM ET: the US stock market open; 10:00 AM ET — existing home sales
  • Holding the 200-day average at $73,173 and Tuesday's low of $72,727; overhead — $74,811 and $75,201
  • Thursday night: spot BTC ETF flows for Thursday — a sixth day of outflows or a turn; 7:00 PM ET (00:00 UTC) — the daily candle close
  • Friday, Nov 13: PPI at 8:30 AM ET, a 33,144 BTC expiry (max pain $76,000) and a difficulty retarget of about -7.1%
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded at release and never edited: 24 hours later it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • Overnight, as of 12:46 AM ET, Bitcoin traded at $73,620: -0.2% over 24 hours, -3.2% over 7 days and -11.5% over 30 days.Binance
  • The 24-hour range was $73,390⁠–⁠74,811: the high came during Wednesday's US session, but the price slipped back under $74,000 by the evening.Binance
  • Asia was quiet while the US slept: since 7:00 PM ET Wednesday the price held a $73,530⁠–⁠74,220 band and barely reacted to the crash in Nvidia perpetuals.CoinDesk
6 more facts
  • Tuesday's low of $72,727 remains the 30-day floor; the 30-day high is $84,898.Binance
  • Binance BTC/USDT spot volume came to 14,635 BTC over 24 hours (about $1.08 billion), 18% less than a day earlier.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap is about $1.48 trillion and the whole crypto market's $2.47 trillion (-3.0% on the day); BTC dominance is 59.9%, ETH 10.1%.CoinGecko
  • Altcoins as of 12:42 AM ET: Ether $2,045 (-1.1% on the day), Solana $82.94 (-0.3%), XRP $1.042 (-1.7%).Binance
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance, adjusted for the USDT rate, is about zero (+0.01%, $4): US demand was neutral overnight.Coinbase
  • The price sits 41.7% below the $126,080 record set on Oct 6, 2025.CoinGecko

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) is 34.0: close to oversold (threshold 30) but not there yet.Binance
  • MACD at -1,940 is below its signal line at -1,594, histogram -346: downside momentum persists.Binance
  • The price is below the EMA20 ($77,073), EMA50 ($78,698) and EMA200 ($76,679): all three cap it from above.Binance
7 more facts
  • The 200-day simple moving average is $73,173 and the Mayer Multiple 1.01: for a third day the price has held a fraction of a percent above it.Binance
  • The 50-week moving average is $75,201: together with the 24-hour high of $74,811 it is the nearest ceiling.Binance
  • Levels: support at $73,200 (200-day), $72,700 (Tuesday's low) and $72,000; resistance at $74,800 (24-hour high), $75,200 (50-week) and $76,000 (max pain for Friday's expiry).Binance
  • The 200-week moving average is $68,154, with the price 8.0% above it; Pi Cycle reads 0.50, far from overheated.CoinLab
  • Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq is 0.75, the 99th percentile since 2020 (K33): in all 7 failed Nasdaq rebounds Bitcoin fell, with a median 20-day loss of 21%.The Block
  • Fractals: the two-week stretch (-7.3%) resembles 6 past episodes, 3 of which were followed by gains (median +4.4%); the 50-day window shows 5 of 6 up with a median of +2.2%. This is statistics, not a promise.CoinLab
  • Polymarket puts the median price for 12:00 PM ET on Nov 13 at $73,595 (interquartile $72,405⁠–⁠75,000) and gives 49% odds of a higher price than at publication; our base-case range of $72,700⁠–⁠74,900 matches that corridor.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Binance BTC futures open interest is 98,098 BTC (about $7.22 billion): -2.4% on the day and -6.6% on the week as leverage keeps coming off.Binance
  • Market-wide the picture differs: perpetual open interest was about 353,000 BTC on Nov 10, higher on only 1.2% of days in two years; it rose 12% in 30 days while the price fell 10%. K33 head of research Vetle Lunde calls the market "ripe for a squeeze" in either direction.The Block
  • Funding per 8 hours: Binance 0.0076%, Bybit 0.0077%, OKX 0.0100%, Hyperliquid 0.0028% (3⁠–⁠11% annualized): longs are paying, but without froth.Binance
5 more facts
  • Binance's liquidation feed shows about $15.6 million of BTC shorts and $9.3 million of longs wiped out on Nov 11 (a lower-bound estimate), a fraction of Nov 10's $44.7 million in longs; market-wide overnight figures are not available.CoinLab
  • The Binance long/short account ratio is 2.65 (72.6% long), and 2.29 among top traders: retail is still leaning long.Binance
  • The taker buy/sell ratio on Binance futures is 1.01: aggressive buyers and sellers are evenly matched.Binance
  • Nvidia perpetuals on Hyperliquid dropped overnight to $160.99, nearly 7% below the stock's $173 close, after The Wall Street Journal reported the board is preparing to oust Jensen Huang.CoinDesk
  • The CoinLab squeeze index is +11 (-2 a day ago): a slight tilt toward a short squeeze, far from an extreme.CoinLab

4Options

  • Today at 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC) 3,287 BTC of options expire on Deribit with max pain at $74,000 and a put/call ratio of 1.11.Deribit
  • Friday, Nov 13: 33,144 BTC expire, max pain $76,000, put/call 0.52 — mostly calls that sit above the market and will expire worthless without a sharp rally.Deribit
  • The monthly expiry on Nov 27 holds 80,068 BTC with max pain at $79,000; December's (the 25th) holds 142,814 BTC with max pain at $75,000.Deribit
4 more facts
  • The DVOL volatility index is 38.9 (38.1 a week ago): options imply a daily move of about ±2.0%, or ±$1,500.Deribit
  • Put/call across all open interest is 0.75; open interest totals 352,605 BTC ($25.9 billion).Deribit
  • Options pricing on Derive puts the odds of Bitcoin below $70,000 at Christmas at 31%, up from 15% a week ago, while odds above $80,000 fell from 53% to 26%; puts made up 55% of premiums versus 36% the week before.The Block
  • December 25-delta puts trade 3.6 vol points richer than calls: demand for downside protection is steady.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • Spot BTC ETFs lost a preliminary $30.2 million on Nov 11 — a fifth straight day of outflows, though the smallest of the five; GBTC shed $39.1 million, and IBIT's figure was not yet published.CoinLab
  • Over the five sessions from Nov 5 to Nov 11 the funds lost about $1.17 billion; cumulative net inflow stands at $55.39 billion and assets at $93.22 billion (1.26 million BTC, about 6.3% of Bitcoin's market cap).CoinLab
  • By K33's count, US spot BTC ETFs have turned negative on flows for 2026 year-to-date, and global Bitcoin exchange-traded products shed 31,652 BTC over seven trading days.The Block
5 more facts
  • ETH ETFs lost $9.7 million on Nov 11 (assets of $11.69 billion); Solana funds lost $5.8 million.CoinLab
  • MSCI on Nov 11 removed Strategy from its USA Index and Metaplanet from its Japan Small Cap Index, effective after the close on Nov 30. Strategy shares fell 2.6% after hours to $119.06.The Block
  • The removals follow the eligibility rules for non-operating companies that MSCI adopted in October; they were largely expected, but index funds will have to sell the shares by month-end.The Block
  • Strategy holds 850,363 BTC at an average of $75,456: the price at publication was about 2.5% below its cost basis.The Block
  • 181 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (6.2% of supply) worth about $96 billion; after Strategy the largest are Metaplanet (44,000 BTC), Twenty One (43,514) and Strive (43,153).CoinGecko

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear & Greed Index is 28 ("fear"), versus 29 a day ago.alternative.me
  • CoinLab's market temperature is 27 out of 100, unchanged on the day: across eight cycle metrics the market is in the cold zone.CoinLab
  • MVRV is 1.42 (as of Nov 2), the 33rd percentile of its history: holders are on average about 42% in profit.Coinmetrics
5 more facts
  • The short-term holder cost basis is about $75,911 (as of Nov 5): the price is 3% below it, so recent buyers are underwater and sell into bounces.Bgeometrics
  • Stablecoin supply is $290.8 billion: -1.5% on the week and -4.8% (-$14.8 billion) over 30 days.Defillama
  • Glassnode puts the 30-day contraction in major stablecoins at $14.2 billion, calling it the largest since the 2022 bear market: redemptions pull cash out, leaving "less fuel for a rally.".The Block
  • CryptoQuant data show USDT's market cap fell $6.6 billion in the 60 days through Nov 7 — twice the $3.2 billion drop after FTX collapsed in December 2022; its analysts say a local Bitcoin bottom could form before USDT supply turns positive again.The Block
  • Polymarket for November: a drop to $72,500 — 82.5%, to $70,000 — 51.5%, to $67,500 — 29.5%; a touch of $77,500 — 52%, $80,000 — 30.5%.Polymarket

7Mining

  • Hashrate is about 955 EH/s, difficulty 148.4 T.mempool.space
  • The difficulty retarget is due around Nov 13 (221 blocks away, epoch 89% complete), estimated at -7.1%: miners are switching machines off after the price drop; the previous adjustment was +5.5%.mempool.space
  • Fees are low: 4 sat/vB for fast confirmation and 1 sat/vB within an hour; block height is 975,523, with 74,477 blocks to the halving (estimated April 2028).mempool.space
1 more facts
  • Miner MARA sold 13,597 BTC at an average of $81,039 (about $1.1 billion) in the six weeks after late September and plans to sell more to fund AI data centers (reported Nov 10).CoinDesk

8Macro

  • US stocks closed higher on Nov 11: S&P 500 at 7,619.38 (+1.3%), Nasdaq Composite at 25,466.19 (+1.6%), Dow +0.5% (nearly 255 points), driven by CoreWeave's results. The VIX fell 10% to 17.49.CNBC
  • The mood flipped after the bell: Nvidia shares fell 7⁠–⁠8.6% to about $161 on reports that the board is preparing to remove Jensen Huang; no decision had been announced at publication.CNBC
  • Futures are lower overnight: Nasdaq-100⁠–⁠0.8⁠–⁠1.0%, S&P 500⁠–⁠0.3⁠–⁠0.4%, Dow +0.15%; Bernstein halved its Nvidia target to $200.Investinglive
9 more facts
  • Asia was mixed: Nikkei +0.25% (about 61,400), Kospi +0.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.2%, Hang Seng about -1%; Asian chipmakers held up (Samsung +2%).Investinglive
  • Japan's producer prices rose 7.1% year over year in October versus 6.5% expected; USD/JPY is near 159.70, right under the 160 level where the market expects intervention.Investinglive
  • Today at 8:30 AM ET come weekly US jobless claims and at 10:00 AM ET existing home sales; the week's main report after CPI is Friday's PPI at 8:30 AM ET.CNBC
  • The US bond market reopens today after Veterans Day and gets its first full chance to react to the equity rally and reversal; on Nov 10 the 2-year closed at 4.73% (+17 bp on the day) and the 10-year at 4.98% (+10 bp).Treasury
  • The Fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00%, with the next meeting on Dec 8⁠–⁠9. Polymarket: a 25 bp hike — 85.5%, 50 bp or more — 9.6%, no change — 3.7%; for January, another hike — 53.5%, a pause — 45.5%.Polymarket
  • After the hot CPI (+0.4% in October) Deutsche Bank expects three straight 25 bp hikes — December, January and March — to 4.50⁠–⁠4.75%; it does not rule out 50 bp in December but does not make it the base case.Investinglive
  • The dollar index DXY is 102.99: +0.1% on the day and +1.4% over five days — a strong dollar remains a headwind for Bitcoin.Yahoo Finance
  • Gold is around $3,976⁠–⁠3,987 an ounce (-0.3⁠–⁠0.6% on the day, -3.3% over five days); TD Securities sees a retest of $3,900 on Fed hike bets and a firm dollar.Investinglive
  • Oil is sliding: WTI around $85.4⁠–⁠85.6 (-1.1⁠–⁠1.3% on the day, -5.4% over five days), Brent $91.40; OPEC output rose by nearly 2 million barrels a day in October to about 27.2 million.Investinglive

9Regulation and events

  • The SEC on Nov 11 filed an amicus brief backing the CFTC in the fight over perpetuals on US stocks: the Capital Markets Alliance, whose members include Cboe and Citadel Securities, sued the CFTC seeking to vacate the approvals.The Block
  • Applications by Coinbase, Kalshi and Kraken's parent to list equity perpetuals were deemed approved on Nov 2; together with DRW, Paradigm and Jump Trading they filed a brief opposing the suit.The Block
  • OKXICE, the joint venue of OKX and Intercontinental Exchange, launches tokenized securities trading on Nov 23 under the SEC's innovation exemption.The Block
3 more facts
  • Starting today, Nov 12, the European Banking Authority (EBA) takes over supervision of the USDC issuer's reserves and liquidity.CoinDesk
  • Around Nvidia: Nov 17 — the company's quarterly results, Nov 18 — a House committee briefing with Huang, Nov 19 — Anthropic's expected market debut. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq makes these dates matter for crypto too.Investinglive
  • Calendar: Nov 13 — PPI at 8:30 AM ET, a 33,144 BTC expiry and the difficulty retarget; Nov 18 — FOMC minutes; Nov 25 — PCE; Nov 27 — monthly expiry; Nov 30 — Strategy leaves MSCI; Dec 8⁠–⁠9 — Fed meeting.CoinDesk

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