BTC$81,615
ETH$2,433
BNB$721.59
XRP$1.31
SOL$104.90
TRX$0.3354
HYPE$79.97
ZEC$1,173
DOGE$0.0803
XMR$559.03
1Price and market
- As of 1:30 AM ET Bitcoin traded at $81,615: −0.7% over 24 hours within a $80,809–82,941 range, −1.7% on the week, +6.8% over 30 days.Binance
- The Oct 16 daily candle closed at $81,616 (−0.8%): the $82,941 high came during the Asian session, and after Wall Street opened, selling in AI stocks pushed the price lower.Binance
- On Friday Bitcoin outperformed the Nasdaq: the index fell 2.15%, while BTC stood near $81,500 at the 4:25 PM ET close, −1% on the day.CoinDesk
5 more facts
- Saturday started quietly: 24-hour spot volume on Binance was 13,274 BTC (about $1.09B) versus 18,202 BTC a day earlier.Binance
- Bitcoin's market cap was $1.64 trillion, the total crypto market $2.76 trillion; BTC dominance 59.3%, ETH 10.7%.CoinGecko
- On the morning of Oct 16 altcoins outpaced BTC: Celestia +16% to $0.68, ZEC +11% to ~$1,230, and CoinMarketCap's altseason index rose from 50 to 60; by evening ETH traded at ~$2,425, SOL ~$105, XRP $1.31 (−2.1%).CoinDesk
- Crypto stocks fell harder than coins on Oct 16: intraday Strategy was down 9.2%, Coinbase 3.5%, Circle 4%, Bullish 5.9%.CoinDesk
- The price sat 35.3% below the all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025); over the year BTC was down 25.1%.CoinGecko
2Technical analysis
- Price stayed below the EMA20 ($82,704) but above the EMA50 ($80,471): buyers defended the 50-day average twice during the week.Binance
- Long-term supports are lower: the 50-week average at $76,574, the EMA200 at $76,049; the EMA50/EMA200 golden cross came on Sep 14.Binance
- RSI(14) at 46.7: neutral zone with a slight seller edge.Binance
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- MACD (114) was below the signal line (627), histogram −513 versus −495 a day earlier: downside momentum strengthened slightly again.Binance
- Weekly range $79,800–84,352, monthly $76,296–87,396; price was in the lower half of the weekly range.Binance
- On Oct 14 Glassnode named $80,000–81,500 as key support: the spot ETF average cost basis (~$81,500) and the largest limit bid on Binance ($80,000) sit there; below is the "true market mean" near $78,000.Glassnode
- Overhead pressure comes from 6–12-month holders with a cost basis near $88,000: per Glassnode, until there's a close above it, every rally meets break-even selling.Glassnode
- Fractals: of similar two-week stretches in history, 4 of 6 continued higher (median +3.4%); for the 50-day window only 1 of 6 (median −7%); for the six-month window 5 of 6 (median +8.7%).CoinLab
3Derivatives
- Crypto market liquidations fell to $311M by the morning of Oct 16, from nearly $1B a day earlier, when 90% of wiped-out positions were longs.CoinDesk
- On the Binance BTCUSDT feed, about $13M of longs and $14.6M of shorts were liquidated over the past 24 hours — no skew.Binance
- Binance open interest was 94,127 BTC ($7.68B): −1.3% on the day and +0.6% on the week; market-wide OI rose 2% to $142.2B on Oct 16 as futures volume fell 20% to $200B.CoinDesk
5 more facts
- Binance funding was 0.0074% per 8 h (about 8.1% annualized), twice the 30-day average (0.0034%).Binance
- Funding elsewhere: Bybit 6.6% annualized, OKX 9.3%, Hyperliquid 10.2% — positive everywhere, longs paying shorts.Bybit
- Longs made up 63.3% of Binance accounts (ratio 1.73), 1.77 among top traders; market buys slightly outweighed sells (1.05).Binance
- Binance futures traded below the index ($81,570 vs $81,612), basis −0.05%.Binance
- The CoinLab squeeze index stood at −48 out of 100, a long-squeeze risk zone: funding and the top-trader long share were above the weekly norm, so a sharp drop could be accelerated by forced selling.CoinLab
4Options
- Today, Oct 17, at 08:00 UTC, 3,147 BTC in options expire on Deribit with max pain at $82,000 and a put/call of 1.33 — a small expiry, put-heavy.Deribit
- The DVOL volatility index was 37.6 versus 36.4 a week earlier; per CoinDesk, 30-day BVIV fell to 38% from 42% on Oct 16.Deribit
- Total Deribit options open interest was 393,065 BTC (~$32B), put/call by OI 0.60.Deribit
4 more facts
- On Oct 16 the most traded option on Deribit was the $80,000 put, and a large put spread betting on a drop to $78,000 went through on Derive.CoinDesk
- The Oct 23 weekly expiry: 14,680 BTC with max pain at $82,000 and put/call 1.25.Deribit
- The month's main expiry on Oct 30: 149,756 BTC with max pain at $79,000 and put/call 0.52; the November expiry (Nov 27): 26,752 BTC, max pain $81,000.Deribit
- The 25-delta skew for the Nov 6 series was −3.8 (−2.4 a day earlier): puts got more expensive relative to calls as demand for downside protection grew.Deribit
5ETFs and institutions
- Spot BTC ETFs lost $82.4M on Oct 16 after a modest $5M inflow on Oct 15; almost all of the outflow came from BlackRock's IBIT (−$71.8M).SoSoValue
- ETH ETFs lost $69.7M on Oct 16, all of it from BlackRock's ETHA — the third straight day of outflows.SoSoValue
- Per Glassnode, nearly $3B flowed into BTC ETFs from Sep 21 to Oct 6 — the fastest pace since November 2025 — but from Oct 7 to Oct 12 the funds lost about $760M.Glassnode
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- MSCI will name companies at risk of index exclusion on Nov 11, with changes effective Nov 30; JPMorgan estimates potential outflows from Strategy stock at $2.8B.CoinDesk
- Strategy held 848,250 BTC as of Oct 11 (latest purchase: 250 BTC at $86,194 during Oct 5–11); STRC dividends will become daily from Nov 1 (12% annualized) if shareholders approve on Oct 28.Strategy
- On Oct 16 Strive upsized its SATS preferred stock offering to 7 million shares at $90 — $630M in gross proceeds at a yield of about 16.7%.CoinDesk
- Within weeks Deutsche Bank will launch BTC and ETH custody for institutional clients in Germany, partnering with Taurus.Db
- 180 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC (~$106B, 6.2% of supply); after Strategy the largest are Metaplanet (44,000) and Twenty One (43,514).CoinGecko
- No Coinbase premium: its price matched Binance in dollar terms (−0.002%) — US demand was neutral.Coinbase
6Sentiment and on-chain
- The Fear & Greed Index fell to 55 ("greed") from 63 the day before; a week earlier it was 64, a month earlier 50.alternative.me
- CoinLab's "market temperature" was 36 out of 100 (37 the day before): cycle metrics put the market in the cool zone.CoinLab
- MVRV was 1.51 on Oct 16 (40th historical percentile): holders were up 51% on average, no overheating.Coinmetrics
5 more facts
- Mayer Multiple 1.13, price 22% above the 200-week average ($66,731), Pi Cycle indicator 0.47 out of 1.CoinLab
- The short-term holder cost basis was about $74,400 as of Oct 10: the market was roughly 10% above it.Coinmetrics
- Long-term holders have nearly stopped selling at a loss: their realized losses are down about 85% from the Aug 12 peak, and since late August four coins have been sold in profit for every one sold at a loss.Glassnode
- Stablecoins at $306.6B: −0.4% on the week, +0.7% (+$2B) over 30 days; new money is arriving slowly.Defillama
- On Oct 16 nine companies formed the Quantum Alliance to protect blockchains from quantum threats; by their estimate, 6.4 million BTC (30% of mined supply) already have exposed public keys.CoinDesk
7Mining
- Hashrate was about 1,036 EH/s; difficulty rose 5.9% to 140.6 T at the Oct 16 retarget — miner revenue per unit of hashpower fell.mempool.space
- Next retarget around Oct 30: 1,916 blocks to go, preliminary estimate +0.3%.mempool.space
- Fees were near the floor — 2 sat/vB for fast confirmation, 1 sat/vB within an hour; block height 971,812.mempool.space
4 more facts
- Miners with AI businesses fell alongside CoreWeave on Oct 16 (−8%, −20% on the week): Hut 8, IREN, CleanSpark and Cipher Mining were down about 6% intraday.CoinDesk
- Goldman Sachs: high-yield bond spreads for AI companies widened 25 bp on the week while others barely moved; AI debt is "at the epicenter" of the debate over funding costs.CoinDesk
- Core Scientific reports on Oct 22, with revenue expected around $200M.Fffinstill
- 78,188 blocks remained until the halving, estimated for Apr 12, 2028.mempool.space
8Macro
- On Oct 16 the Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 26,138, the S&P 500 1.1% to 7,659, the Dow 0.4% to 51,990: a sell-off in AI stocks and rising oil.Invezz
- The VIX fear gauge jumped 21% to 20.0, +35% over five days; Monday, Oct 19, marks the 39th anniversary of 1987's "Black Monday".Yahoo Finance
- WTI crude rose 3.5% to $101.4 (+10% over 5 days, about +16% over 10 days) amid reports of an attack on Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline.CoinDesk
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- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking in Bangkok, didn't reveal rate plans but said the AI boom is likely adding to inflation; CME FedWatch odds of an October hike fell to 15% from ~45% after the CPI.CoinDesk
- Polymarket gave 86.5% for a hold at the Oct 27–28 meeting and 13.5% for a 25 bp hike; for December (Dec 8–9), a hike was at 76.5%.Polymarket
- Treasury yields on Oct 16: 2-year 4.74% (−3 bp), 10-year 5.09% (−1 bp, −13 bp over 5 days); intraday the 10-year reached 5.13%.Treasury
- The DXY dollar index was 101.8 (−0.2% on the day, −0.4% on the week), gold $4,181 (+0.3%).Yahoo Finance
- September CPI inflation came in at 3.7%, core at 2.6%, both above forecasts; the Fed raised rates by 25 bp on Sep 16 — the first hike since 2023.Glassnode
9Regulation and events
- Earnings week: Netflix on Oct 20; Tesla, Meta, IBM and Texas Instruments on Oct 21 after the close; Intel on Oct 22 — they will decide whether the tech sell-off continues.Fffinstill
- Next FOMC meeting: Oct 27–28; Strategy's shareholder meeting on daily STRC dividends: Oct 28; US midterm elections: Nov 3.Polymarket
- MSCI approved rules for companies with large investment holdings: an operating-assets test and five financial ratios; on May test data, Strategy, Metaplanet and Yellow Cake met the criteria.CoinDesk
4 more facts
- On Oct 14 VanEck withdrew its filing for a Lido staked ETH (stETH) ETF: after a year the registration never became effective.SEC
- The Polymarket median for Oct 18 (12:00 PM ET) was $81,482 with an interquartile range of $80,647–82,582 and a 46% chance of finishing above the report price; our base-case range of $80,600–82,900 is consistent with it.Polymarket
- For October, Polymarket gave 54.5% odds of touching $85,000 and 73% for $80,000; $87,500 — 30.5%, $77,500 — 42.5%.Polymarket
- Binance Research head Catherine Chen called the post-CPI sell-off "a sentiment shock, not a structural break" and expects inflation to peak around October.CoinDesk