Bitcoin stock market correlation: S&P 500, Nasdaq and history

Bitcoin's stock market correlation is positive, but moderate and unstable. On our calculation from daily data between August 2017 and November 9, 2026, the correlation of bitcoin's daily returns with the S&P 500 is about +0.30, and +0.31 with the Nasdaq Composite. Before 2020 there was almost no link (+0.02); since 2020 it has held near +0.4, and it tightens sharply on days when equities sell off. This guide covers how correlation is measured, what the year-by-year record shows, why bitcoin started trading with stocks, and what the numbers look like on our live dashboard.

What correlation is and how it is measured

Correlation is a number between −1 and +1 that shows how closely two assets move together. +1 means always in the same direction, −1 always in opposite directions, 0 no relationship. Three details change the result more than most readers expect.

1. Use returns, not prices. Two assets that simply drift higher for years will show a price correlation near +0.9 with no real connection. The right comparison is daily percentage changes.
2. The window matters. A 30-day correlation jumps from week to week, a 90-day one is calmer, a full-year one calmer still. Figures from different sources cannot be compared without knowing the window.
3. Trading hours differ. US stocks trade 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET on weekdays; bitcoin trades around the clock. In our data, 31% of calendar days are weekends and exchange holidays when bitcoin moved on its own.

One more useful rule: the square of the correlation is the share of one asset's swings "explained" by the other. At +0.30 that is 9%; at +0.50 it is 25%. Even in the tightest years, three quarters of bitcoin's daily moves came from somewhere other than stocks.

Our method: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closes from Yahoo Finance (^GSPC, ^IXIC) and daily BTC/USDT closes on Binance (API) on exchange trading days, August 17, 2017 to November 9, 2026, 2,319 daily changes. Binance's daily candle closes at 00:00 UTC, three to four hours after the New York close.

Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq by year

What the table and the rest of our calculations for the same period show:

• The break came in 2020. For 2017⁠–⁠2019 the correlation with the S&P 500 is +0.02; for 2020⁠–⁠2026 it is +0.39 (+0.03 and +0.41 for the Nasdaq).
• The 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 was above zero 85% of the time, but above +0.5 only 20% of the time. The high, +0.67, came on May 11, 2022; the low, −0.42, on August 6, 2019.
• Direction matched on 61% of trading days. Clearly better than a coin flip, but a long way from "one and the same trade."
• Correlation is not equal returns. In 2025 the link was tighter than average (+0.42), yet the year ended very differently: S&P 500 +16%, bitcoin −6%. Correlation describes the daily rhythm, not who made how much.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq readings barely differ. Bitcoin is often called a "leveraged tech stock," but year by year the two columns are nearly identical.

Monthly returns tell the same story: +0.37 with the S&P 500 and +0.38 with the Nasdaq.

Why bitcoin started moving with stocks

The IMF documented the shift in detail. In an IMF blog post dated January 11, 2022, Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer and Mahvash Qureshi put the correlation between bitcoin and S&P 500 returns at 0.01 for 2017⁠–⁠19 and 0.36 for 2020⁠–⁠21. Our figures for the same periods are almost the same. The authors conclude that bitcoin has been behaving as a risky asset, and note that its correlation with stocks turned higher than that between stocks and gold, investment-grade bonds or major currencies.

Analysts point to similar causes. Mark Shore of CME Group, in an article published June 2, 2025, lists five factors, framed as possible contributors and not proven causes:

1. institutional acceptance of bitcoin as an asset;
2. it sits in the same portfolios as equities and gets sold alongside them;
3. high volatility;
4. shifts in supply and holding patterns;
5. easier access through ETFs, futures and options.

CME puts the correlation of bitcoin's daily returns with major equity indices at about 0.2 for January 2014 to April 2025, with rolling readings climbing to about 0.5 from 2020. For how the funds work, see our guide to bitcoin ETF flows.

The most recent study is a Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago working paper dated August 13, 2026, by Alejandro Drexler, Andre Guettler and Angela Sun. They estimate bitcoin's beta, meaning how many percent it moves for a 1% move in an index. Its beta to the Dow Jones rose from roughly 0.4 before 2020 to roughly 1.5 after 2021. The surprise: once Dow Jones returns are controlled for, the separate exposure to the Nasdaq is statistically insignificant. The authors read this as bitcoin being driven by broad stock-market sentiment and not by tech-sector fundamentals.

The common thread is money and risk appetite. When rates rise and liquidity tightens, investors cut both stocks and crypto. We covered the mechanics in Fed rates and bitcoin and DXY and bitcoin.

What happens to bitcoin when stocks fall

The average hides the main point: the link tightens on bad days. Over our sample the S&P 500 fell 2% or more in a day 88 times. On those days bitcoin lost 3.3% on average and closed lower 70% of the time. On the 64 days when the index gained 2% or more, bitcoin added 2.7% on average and rose 80% of the time.

Bitcoin is also far more volatile. The annualized volatility of its daily returns over the period is about 67%, against 19% for the S&P 500 and 23% for the Nasdaq, or 3.5 and 2.9 times higher. CME puts the gap at three to five times and describes bitcoin as a possible "beta extension" of a portfolio's equity exposure.

A few episodes:

• March 12, 2020. The S&P 500 lost 9.5% in a day; bitcoin lost 39.5%. Over the whole crash from February 19 to March 23, both fell by about a third: −34% and −33%.
• 2022. The Fed was raising rates, the Nasdaq lost 33% on the year and bitcoin 64%. The yearly correlations, +0.56 and +0.59, are the highest in the table.
• November 5, 2026. In a selloff of AI and chip stocks, the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, the Nasdaq Composite 5.5% and bitcoin 5.5%. Details are in our news report.

When the link breaks

Bitcoin has its own reasons to move, and then stocks explain nothing.

• The FTX collapse. From November 4 to 11, 2022, bitcoin fell 19% while the S&P 500 rose 5.9% and the Nasdaq 8.1%.
• The US banking crisis. From March 8 to 22, 2023, bitcoin gained 25.5% while the S&P 500 slipped 1.4%.
• The tariff selloff. On April 3 and 4, 2025, the S&P 500 lost 4.8% and 6.0%, and bitcoin closed up 0.8% on both days. By April 8, though, it was down 7.5% against −12.1% for the index.
• Summer 2026. According to Unlock BC, Grayscale wrote in an August 27, 2026 report that the 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 had dropped from above 60% to 33%, while the one with gold climbed above 50%. Our calculation for the Nasdaq Composite gives a similar +0.39 at the end of August. More on that pairing in bitcoin vs gold.

This is where the argument over what bitcoin is comes from. BlackRock's September 2024 paper "Bitcoin: A Unique Diversifier," as summarized by The Block, argued that episodes of correlation with US equities had been short-lived. The Chicago Fed study two years later reaches the opposite conclusion: bitcoin has become more equity-like and less of a diversifier.

Example: the picture on November 10, 2026

From our dashboard as of 1:00 PM ET on November 10, 2026, with correlations through the November 9 close:

• BTC at $73,268, down 2.0% over 24 hours; S&P 500 at 7,484 (−0.9% on the day), Nasdaq at 24,895 (−1.4%);
• the VIX volatility index at 21.0, the fear and greed index at 32 ("fear");
• 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 at +0.49 and with the Nasdaq at +0.51; 30-day at +0.70 and +0.72;
• from the October 6 close, the highest for both indices in our data, to November 9: S&P 500 −3.4%, Nasdaq −8.5%, bitcoin −11.9%.

That is a typical selloff pattern: the 30-day correlation has risen well above its average, and bitcoin is falling harder than the indices. Yet the year-to-date results diverge, with bitcoin at −14% and the S&P 500 at +10%. A high correlation over recent weeks does not mean bitcoin will track stocks over a year.

S&P 500, Nasdaq, VIX and dollar quotes update in the Numbers block, market conditions in Pulse, and the price on the Bitcoin page.

Common mistakes

• Correlating prices. Trending price series almost always "correlate." Compare returns only.
• Comparing figures from different windows. +0.7 over 30 days and +0.3 over nine years do not contradict each other.
• Confusing correlation with beta. A correlation of +0.5 does not mean "half the move in stocks." With volatility about three times higher, bitcoin often falls more than the index on a bad day.
• Expecting the link to last. Since 2018 the yearly correlation with the S&P 500 has ranged from −0.11 to +0.56.
• Looking only at stocks for the cause. Hacks, exchange failures, ETF flows and regulatory decisions move bitcoin regardless of the equity market.
• Forgetting weekends. On nearly a third of days bitcoin trades with no cue from equities, and sometimes prices in news before the stock market opens.

FAQ

What is bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500? On our calculation from daily data between August 2017 and November 9, 2026, about +0.30. It was near zero before 2020 and has been around +0.4 since. The 90-day reading on November 9, 2026 was +0.49.

Is bitcoin more correlated with the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq? Almost equally: +0.30 and +0.31 over the full period. The 2026 Chicago Fed paper finds no separate link to the tech sector once the broad market is accounted for.

Does bitcoin protect against a stock market crash? The record does not support that. On days when the S&P 500 fell 2% or more, bitcoin declined 70% of the time, by 3.3% on average. There were exceptions, such as April 3⁠–⁠4, 2025.

Why does bitcoin fall together with stocks? Both depend on interest rates and liquidity, the same investors hold them, and in stress risk positions get cut together. Since ETFs and futures arrived, selling bitcoin is as easy as selling a stock.

This is not investment advice.