Bitcoin vs gold: digital gold, correlation and returns

Bitcoin vs gold comes down to this: both are scarce, neither can be printed by a central bank, and both are bought as a hedge against currency debasement — which is why bitcoin is called "digital gold." In the market, though, they still behave very differently. Since 2017 bitcoin has been roughly four times as volatile as gold, and by our calculation the correlation of their daily returns is only about +0.11, meaning they mostly move independently. That link tightened sharply in 2026: the 90-day correlation hit +0.55 in September, the highest in our data. Below we compare the two assets on supply, risk and history, and show how the bitcoin-to-gold relationship looks on live data from our market dashboard.

Why bitcoin is called "digital gold"

The comparison is as old as bitcoin itself. In the Bitcoin whitepaper, Satoshi Nakamoto likens the steady issuance of new coins to gold miners spending resources to add gold to circulation — which is where the word "mining" comes from.

The two assets share three core traits:

1. Scarcity. Gold is limited by geology, bitcoin by code: no more than 21 million BTC will ever exist. See our explainer on how many bitcoins there are.
2. No issuer. Neither has a central bank that can expand supply to cover a budget deficit.
3. No yield. Neither pays interest, so both compete with bonds: the higher real rates go, the costlier it is to hold a non-yielding asset. We covered how that plays out for BTC in Fed rates and bitcoin.

Bitcoin vs gold by the numbers

*Our calculation from daily closes of BTC/USDT on Binance and COMEX gold futures (GC=F, Yahoo Finance), August 2017 to November 6, 2026; volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns.

The key takeaway: on new-supply growth, bitcoin is already "harder" than gold — its stock grows about half as fast. On market size, it is still about 20 times smaller. As of November 7, 2026, bitcoin's market cap equals roughly 5% of the value of all the gold in the world.

Bitcoin and gold correlation: what the data says

Correlation measures how consistently two assets move together, from −1 (always opposite) to +1 (always together). Our results on the same daily data, August 2017 to November 6, 2026:

• daily-return correlation over the full period: +0.11;
• monthly-return correlation: +0.09;
• the 90-day rolling correlation was above zero 72% of the time;
• the lowest 90-day reading was −0.27 on November 6, 2018, deep in the crypto winter; the highest was +0.55 on September 11, 2026.

The sign is usually positive, but the strength is small: most of the time bitcoin goes its own way. Others flagged the 2026 jump too. As reported by Unlock BC, Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl wrote on August 27, 2026 that bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold had climbed above 50% from just above zero at the start of the year, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from over 60% to about 33%. Grayscale cautioned the shift might not be permanent. According to FXStreet, K33 Research said in September 2026 that the 90-day correlation with gold had reached an all-time high.

Bitcoin vs gold returns, 2018⁠–⁠2026

Price change from the last trading day of the prior year to the last trading day of the year, from our data:

Two patterns stand out. First, in up years bitcoin beat gold by multiples, while in down years it lost 64⁠–⁠74% and gold barely moved — they sit in different risk classes. Second, 2025 belonged to gold. Per the World Gold Council, total demand topped 5,000 tonnes for the first time (5,002.3 t), central banks bought 863.3 t, and the LBMA price set 53 all-time highs. Bitcoin finished the year in the red after peaking at $124,659 (Binance daily close) on October 6, 2025. More context in our bitcoin annual returns breakdown.

The cleanest way to track the relationship is the BTC/gold ratio in ounces — how many ounces one bitcoin buys. Its high in our data was 39.9 oz on December 17, 2024; the 2026 low was 12.4 oz on February 23, shortly after gold's run above $5,000.

Bitcoin vs gold today: November 7, 2026

From our dashboard as of 1:00 PM ET on November 7, 2026:

• Bitcoin: $75,847 on Binance spot, −2.2% over 7 days, −7.2% over 30 days, about 39% below its October 2025 high.
• Gold (COMEX futures): $4,075 at the November 6 close, −0.9% on the day, +4.5% over five days. Its 2026 closing low was $3,899 on October 30, 27% below the $5,318 peak on January 29.
• One bitcoin buys 18.6 oz of gold — about half the December 2024 level.
• 90-day correlation of daily returns: +0.49; 30-day: +0.33. Still high by historical standards.
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 25, "Extreme Fear"; bitcoin dominance: 59.3%.

The 2026 picture is one of both assets falling together. Per FXStreet, by late June gold was about 28% below its January record and bitcoin about 50% below its October peak, as the Fed turned hawkish and lifted rates to 3.75%–4.00%. Our data puts bitcoin's 2026 low at $58,625 on June 30. A high correlation in that kind of phase does not mean bitcoin became a safe haven — both lost demand at the same time as money got more expensive. Live numbers are in our market pulse and on the Bitcoin page.

How to compare bitcoin and gold

1. Use the same currency and the same window. Annual returns swing with the starting point: in 2024 bitcoin beat gold by about 4.5x; in 2025 it trailed by 70 percentage points.
2. Watch the BTC/oz ratio. It strips out dollar noise — when the dollar weakens both rise, and the ratio shows which one is stronger.
3. Size for risk. Since 2017 bitcoin has been about four times as volatile as gold; over the past year the gap narrowed to roughly 1.5x (43% vs 28% annualized) because gold itself became unusually volatile.
4. Check why they move together. Rising together on a weak dollar is a different story from falling together on rate hikes. Read it alongside the DXY dollar index and bond yields.
5. Don't confuse correlation with protection. High correlation means "same direction," not "bitcoin hedges like gold."

Common mistakes

• "Bitcoin is just gold, only digital." On scarcity, yes. In a crisis, no: in 2018 and 2022 bitcoin lost 64⁠–⁠74% while gold was roughly flat.
• Drawing conclusions from 30-day correlation. Short windows swing from negative to +0.5 within weeks. You need at least a year of data.
• Treating market-cap math as a forecast. "If bitcoin matches gold, it will be worth $X" is arithmetic, not a prediction. Nothing says the two must converge.
• Ignoring custody. Gold in a bank vault and bitcoin on an exchange both carry intermediary risk. Holding either directly takes its own skills: physical security or key management.

Limitations

We use COMEX gold futures rather than the LBMA spot fix; levels are close, but reported peaks differ by hundreds of dollars across sources. Bitcoin trades 24/7 and gold only on weekdays, so we compare only days when both traded. Bitcoin's history as a large asset is under ten years and covers just two full cycles, so any averages can still shift a lot.

FAQ

Is bitcoin digital gold? On its properties — scarcity, no issuer, no yield — yes. On price behavior, not yet: it has been about four times as volatile on average, and its link to gold is weak and unstable.

What is the correlation between bitcoin and gold? About +0.11 on daily data since 2017 by our calculation. As of November 6, 2026 the 90-day reading was +0.49; the period high of +0.55 came on September 11, 2026.

How many ounces of gold is one bitcoin worth? 18.6 oz as of November 6, 2026. The high since 2017 was 39.9 oz in December 2024.

Which is safer in a crisis? Historically, gold: in bitcoin's worst years it lost no more than a few percent. But gold also fell 27% from its 2026 peak, so no asset is risk-free.

This is not investment advice.