Bitcoin four-year cycle: tops, bottoms and is it broken

The bitcoin four-year cycle is the recurring pattern of rally, top, bear market, bottom and accumulation that has so far moved in step with the halving. In the three previous cycles, the top arrived 12⁠–⁠18 months after a halving, the price then fell 77⁠–⁠85% over roughly a year, and the bottom came about a year and a half before the next halving. The current cycle matched the timing of the top (October 6, 2025), but the drawdown was about half as deep, roughly 53%. Below are the dates and numbers for every cycle, what drives the rhythm, and what it implies as of October 24, 2026.

What is the bitcoin four-year cycle?

The cycle is not a law or a formula. It is an observation drawn from 14 years of price history, anchored to the bitcoin halving: every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, the block reward miners receive is cut in half. There have been four halvings, in November 2012, July 2016, May 2020 and April 2024.

The cycle is usually split into four phases:

1. Accumulation. After the bottom, price chops sideways for months while public interest fades. K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde noted in November 2022 that after the 2015 bottom the market barely moved for 270 days, and for 120 days after the 2018 bottom.
2. The run-up around the halving. Price climbs back toward the previous high as attention and liquidity return.
3. Euphoria and the top. A parabolic move, retail inflows and heavy leverage. Historically 12⁠–⁠18 months after the halving.
4. Bear market. A sharp decline, forced selling and liquidations, then a bottom.

Bitcoin cycle dates: tops and bottoms

Prices are daily closes from Coin Metrics open data; 2026 figures use Binance BTC/USDT daily candles. Day counts are our own.

Two more regularities from the same data:

• Bottom to next top took 1,059⁠–⁠1,067 days, almost exactly 2.9 years, in all three complete cycles.
• Bottom to next halving took 513⁠–⁠542 days. The 2015, 2018 and 2022 lows each landed about a year and a half before a halving.

The bear-market durations line up with K33's figures of 407 days in 2014⁠–⁠15 and 364 days in 2018 (K33 used Bitstamp data, so dates can differ by a day).

Why has the cycle repeated?

There is no single cause. Three explanations come up most often.

Supply. Each halving cuts the flow of new coins that miners sell to cover power bills. In 2012 that flow was a meaningful share of the market; today it is not. The network issues 450 BTC a day, about 0.8% a year against 20.1 million coins in circulation.

Psychology and self-fulfilling expectations. The cycle is common knowledge, so traders buy and sell by the calendar. An Arkham research piece lists this as a key reason the pattern repeats: bitcoin's price runs largely on narratives and expectations.

Liquidity. Some analysts argue the cycle tracks waves of global money supply and interest rates more than the halving. Matt Crosby, director of research at Look Into Bitcoin, cites an 85% correlation between bitcoin and global M2 on a 15-year monthly chart. Correlation is not causation, but it helps explain why the 2017 and 2021 tops came during periods of cheap money.

Is the four-year cycle broken? What changed in 2024⁠–⁠2026

The current cycle matched past ones on one count and broke from them on three.

What matched: the timing of the top. The October 6, 2025 peak came 534 days after the halving, between the 525 and 546 days of the two prior cycles.

What didn't:

• A record before the halving. Bitcoin cleared the previous cycle's high in March 2024, weeks before the halving. That had never happened before. The new marginal buyer was US spot bitcoin ETFs (see our guide to bitcoin ETF flows).
• A weaker rally. From the halving-day price to the top: 92x, 30x and 7.9x in earlier cycles, about 1.9x this time.
• A shallower, faster decline. The lowest daily close was $58,625 on June 30, 2026 on Binance, −53% from the top after 267 days. Past cycles fell 77⁠–⁠85% over 364⁠–⁠406 days.

Opinions are split. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicted in December 2025 that bitcoin would set a new all-time high in 2026, breaking the cycle, arguing the forces behind past cycles were "significantly weaker than they've been in past cycles." Falling Fed rates were part of his case. As of October 24, 2026, the call has not played out: bitcoin sits 36% below its record, and on September 16, 2026 the Fed raised rates to 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% instead (more in Fed rates and bitcoin).

Cycle believers point the other way: 2026 did turn into a bear year, as the year after a top "should." Glassnode's Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, which combines 45 price indicators, showed its coldest stretch since the FTX collapse in August 2026; its creator, Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft, said readings still had to get colder to match previous bear-market bottoms.

A fair reading: the rhythm survived, the amplitude shrank. Look Into Bitcoin lands in the same place, arguing cycles don't disappear but the halving is no longer the main driver.

Where are we in the bitcoin cycle as of October 24, 2026?

As of 4:00 AM ET on October 24, 2026, bitcoin traded near $80,700 on Binance, 38% above the June low and 36% below the $126,080 record set on October 6, 2025 (CoinGecko intraday high, shown on our bitcoin page). It has been 383 days since the top, between the length of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets (364 and 366 days) and the 2014⁠–⁠15 one (406 days).

Cycle indicators from our data:

The picture resembles early accumulation: if June's low holds, the bottom is in, and nothing looks overheated. If the cycle repeated past timing literally, roughly 1,060 days from bottom to top would put the next peak around May–June 2029, 12⁠–⁠14 months after the 2028 halving. That is a mechanical projection from three data points, not a forecast. Each indicator is explained in Bitcoin cycle indicators; live values are on the bitcoin page.

Common mistakes

• Treating the cycle as a timetable. There have been three complete cycles. Three data points can't reliably pin down the date or level of the next top.
• Expecting past amplitudes. Every rally and every drawdown has been smaller than the one before. Those waiting for −80% in 2026 got −53% (so far).
• Ignoring macro. In 2024⁠–⁠2026, rates, the dollar and ETF flows moved price more visibly than the halving.
• Mixing daily closes and intraday lows. On July 1, 2026, Binance traded as low as $57,800 intraday, while the lowest close was $58,625. Sources quote different "bottoms," so compare like with like.
• Using leverage "because of the cycle." Even if the cycle call is right, a 20⁠–⁠30% range can liquidate leveraged positions long before the target.

FAQ

How long is a bitcoin cycle?

About four years, halving to halving. Within it: 12⁠–⁠18 months from halving to top, roughly a year from top to bottom in past cycles, then about a year and a half of accumulation before the next halving.

When is the next bitcoin halving?

Estimated around April 11, 2028, 77,101 blocks after October 24, 2026. The block reward will drop from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC.

Is the bitcoin four-year cycle dead?

There is no clear answer. The timing of the 2025 top matched history, but both the rally and the decline were far smaller. Many analysts now see a softer cycle that leans more on interest rates and ETF flows.

Has bitcoin bottomed for this cycle?

Unknown. The lowest daily close was $58,625 on June 30, 2026, and by October 24 price was 38% higher. MVRV never dropped below 1 as it did at past bottoms, so some analysts still allow for another leg down.

This is not investment advice.