Bitcoin cycle indicators: MVRV, Mayer multiple, 200WMA, Pi Cycle
Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle? What MVRV, the Mayer multiple, 200-week average, Pi Cycle and STH cost basis show, with values at past tops and bottoms.
Contents
Five Bitcoin cycle indicators help answer where we are in the cycle: MVRV, the Mayer multiple, the 200-week moving average, the Pi Cycle Top and the short-term holder cost basis. Each compares today's price with a "norm" — the average purchase price of coins or a long moving average. Together they show how overheated or cooled the market is relative to its own history, but they do not name the date of a top or a bottom.
Below: what each indicator measures, what values it showed at past tops and bottoms (with dates), and how we combine them into the 0–100 "Market temperature" in the Market pulse section.
Bitcoin cycle indicators at a glance
| Indicator | What it compares | Past top zone | Past bottom zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV | market cap vs. realized cap (what all coins were bought for) | 3.5–6 up to 2021, 2.3–2.8 in 2024–2025 | below 1 |
| Mayer multiple | price vs. 200-day average | above 2.4 up to 2021, 1.2–1.9 since | 0.4–0.8 |
| 200-week average | price vs. 200-week average | 4–16× above in 2017–2021, about 2.3× in 2024–2025 | at or below it |
| Pi Cycle Top | 111-day average vs. 2 × 350-day average | crosses in 2013, 2017 and April 2021 | not used |
| STH cost basis | price vs. average cost of coins younger than 155 days | price far above | price below, holders at a loss |
Values at tops and bottoms below are our own calculations from daily prices and MVRV in Coin Metrics open data. Dates are daily closes, so they can differ by a day or two from intraday highs and lows.
MVRV ratio explained: what it showed at tops and bottoms
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is the ratio of Bitcoin's market cap to its realized cap. Realized cap values each coin not at today's price but at the price when it last moved on-chain. In effect it is the aggregate cost basis of all coins, and the realized price is the market's average purchase price.
As Glassnode puts it, MVRV below 1 means price has fallen below the average cost basis, and historically such periods have coincided with bear market bottoms. MVRV of 2 means the average holder has doubled their money.
At tops, Coin Metrics MVRV reached 5.9 (18 November 2013), 4.7 (7 December 2017) and 3.96 (21 February 2021). Peaks then declined: 2.9 in October 2021 and 2.78 in March 2024. At the all-time high of 6 October 2025 (daily close around $124,800), MVRV was only about 2.3.
At bottoms, MVRV dropped below 1: 0.56 (14 January 2015), 0.69 (15 December 2018), 0.88 (12 March 2020, the Covid crash) and 0.75 (9 November 2022, after FTX collapsed). The lowest daily close of 2026 at the time of writing was about $58,500 on 30 June 2026; MVRV was then around 1.1, so it did not reach past bottom levels.
Takeaway: the lower bound ("below 1 is cheap") has held consistently so far, while the upper bound keeps falling from cycle to cycle. Waiting for MVRV 4–5 to call the market overheated would have missed the last two tops.
Short-term holder cost basis
The short-term holder (STH) realized price, or STH cost basis, is the same realized price but only for coins that moved within the last 155 days. Glassnode chose that threshold because the longer a coin sits, the less likely it is to be spent. STHs are the "fresh" buyers, the most nervous part of the market.
How to read it: while price is above the STH cost basis, recent buyers are in profit, and in a bull market the level often acts as support on pullbacks. When price stays below it, they are underwater and tend to sell into rallies.
Examples: in August 2024, Glassnode put the STH cost basis at about $64,300, while Bitcoin crashed nearly to the lower band of its model at around $49,600. Short-term holders carried their largest unrealized loss since the FTX implosion, with only 7% of their supply in profit. In July 2025, the STH cost basis topped $100,000 for the first time (Cointelegraph, citing Glassnode).
Mayer multiple, 200-week average and Pi Cycle
These three indicators use price only, with no blockchain data.
The Mayer multiple is price divided by the 200-day average. It was proposed by Trace Mayer. Glassnode marks thresholds at 2.4 (overbought) and 0.8 (oversold). By our calculations, the multiple reached 3.78 at the 16 December 2017 top and 2.83 in January 2021. Later peaks were much lower: 1.85 in March 2024 and only about 1.2 at the October 2025 high. At bottoms: 0.40 (January 2015), 0.51 (December 2018), 0.57 (March 2020), 0.48 (June 2022).
The 200-week average is the long-cycle "floor". According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro, price has historically bottomed around this line in every major cycle. Our numbers: in December 2018 price sat almost exactly on the 200-week average, in March 2020 it was 9% below, in November 2022 34% below. At tops the gap has shrunk: about +1,470% in December 2017, +465% in April 2021, and roughly +130% in March 2024 and October 2025.
The Pi Cycle Top was created by Philip Swift in 2019. The signal is the 111-day average crossing above twice the 350-day average. According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro, it has historically picked cycle highs to within three days. Crosses occurred in April and December 2013, on 16 December 2017 and on 12 April 2021. But there was no signal at the November 2021 top (the ratio was about 0.57), and in 2024–2025 it never rose above 0.74, neither at the March 2024 high nor at the October 2025 one. The creator himself warns that with ETFs the indicator may stop being relevant.
Why the peaks keep getting lower
There are clear reasons. Realized cap grows every cycle as more coins bought at high prices are included, so lifting MVRV to 4–5 takes far more money than it did in 2013 or 2017. Moving averages are higher too, and rallies are smoother: part of the demand now comes through spot ETFs and companies buying Bitcoin for their treasuries rather than through leveraged retail mania. So old thresholds are best treated as an upper reference, not a level the market must reach.
How the "Market temperature" combines them
The "Market temperature" on BTC Radar is a single number from 0 to 100. We take eight inputs, map each one linearly to 0–100 between a "cold" and a "hot" bound, and take a simple average.
| Component | 0 points | 100 points |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV (Coin Metrics) | 0.8 | 3.5 |
| Mayer multiple | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| Price above 200-week average | 0% | +150% |
| Pi Cycle: 111-day / (2 × 350-day) | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| Distance from all-time high | −80% | 0% |
| Fear & Greed index (alternative.me) | 0 | 100 |
| Funding, average of 4 exchanges, annualized | −10% | +40% |
| Daily RSI(14) | 20 | 80 |
Zones: below 20 is "Cold", 20–40 "Cool", 40–60 "Neutral", 60–80 "Warm" and above 80 "Hot". The STH cost basis is shown on a separate line and is not part of the score, because free BGeometrics data arrives with about a week's delay. We explain how funding works in a separate article.
To test the scale, we recalculated the five price and on-chain components (without Fear & Greed, funding and RSI, which lack a long history) at past extremes:
| Date | Event | Average of five components |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Dec 2017 | cycle top | 100 |
| 13 Apr 2021 | spring high | 95 |
| 8 Nov 2021 | cycle top | 73 |
| 13 Mar 2024 | post-ETF high | 76 |
| 6 Oct 2025 | all-time high | 63 |
| 15 Dec 2018 | cycle bottom | 2 |
| 12 Mar 2020 | Covid crash | 7 |
| 9 Nov 2022 | post-FTX bottom | 2 |
At bottoms the scale reliably drops toward zero. Tops, however, look "cooler" every cycle: in October 2025, at the all-time high, the five components averaged only 63, "Warm" rather than "Hot". That is the main limitation of any cycle indicator: thresholds come from past cycles, and the market changes.
How to use it
- Look for agreement. One indicator in an extreme zone is a reason to look closer. When MVRV, Mayer and the gap to the 200-week average are all extreme at once, the picture is more reliable.
- Trust bottom zones more than top zones. Historically, MVRV below 1 and price near the 200-week average have lined up with bottoms more consistently than "top" thresholds have with tops.
- Watch the STH cost basis. It is the fastest of the five: price crossing the average cost of fresh holders often shifts market mood for weeks.
- Don't wait for old peaks to repeat. MVRV has not been above 4 since December 2017, and the Mayer multiple has not been above 2.4 since March 2021.
- Combine with short-term data. Cycle indicators are slow; for days and weeks, see the forecast and the Bitcoin page.
At publication, on 6 October 2026, the Market temperature stood at 42, "Neutral". The live value and component breakdown are in the Market pulse. This article is educational and is not investment advice.
FAQ
What is the MVRV ratio in simple terms?
It is the ratio of Bitcoin's current price to the average price at which all circulating coins were acquired. MVRV below 1 means the market is at a loss on average, historically a bottom zone; MVRV of 3 means the average holder has tripled their money.
What is the Mayer multiple?
Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day moving average. Values above 2.4 have historically signaled overheating and values below 0.8 oversold conditions. Since 2021, the multiple has not exceeded 1.9 at tops.
Does the Pi Cycle Top still work?
It caught the tops of 2013, 2017 and April 2021 but gave no signal at the highs of November 2021, March 2024 and October 2025. Its creator acknowledges it may stop working after the launch of ETFs.
Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle now?
The composite reading updates every 15 minutes in the Market temperature on the home page, along with which indicator is running hotter or colder than the rest.
