Crypto market weekly review: Oct 5 – Oct 11, 2026

The week of October 5⁠–⁠11 was Bitcoin's first red week in four: −3.2% to a close of $83,773. The slide ran from Tuesday through Thursday on three triggers at once: outflows from spot ETFs, Fed minutes hinting at another rate hike, and oil above $105 on reports that the US was preparing strikes on Iran. Thursday tested $80,394, and by Sunday the market had recovered half the loss. The latest picture is always in the daily briefing; last week's issue is here: review for Sep 28 – Oct 4.

The week in 5 points

• BTC −3.2% for the week: open $86,530, close $83,773, high $86,999 (in the first hours of Monday), low $80,394 (Thursday, Oct 8, 16:00⁠–⁠20:00 UTC candle), per Binance 4-hour candles. The range was $6,605, or 7.6% of the open, against 5.5% a week earlier.
• $1.09B liquidated in a day: per CoinGlass, $1.09B of positions were wiped out in the 24 hours to 10:00 UTC Friday, $1.05B of them longs, the largest daily tally since Aug 21 (Cryptonomist). Tuesday added another $555.6M (The Block).
• ETFs flipped to outflows: spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $681.1M over five sessions, their worst week since late June; Ether ETFs shed $542.1M, their worst week since January; even Solana funds closed a week in the red for the first time in 14 weeks (The Block, SoSoValue data).
• Macro leaned against risk: the Fed minutes showed most participants expect one more hike before year-end (Federal Reserve), Brent reached $105.88 on Wednesday (Cointelegraph), and the 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.73% intraday. The S&P 500 still closed the week up 1.2%.
• Altcoins fell twice as hard as Bitcoin: ETH −7.0%, SOL −8.4%, XRP −7.3%, BNB −5.2%, ETH/BTC −3.9%. Almost no large coin finished green: NEAR +19.9%, ONDO +4.7%, DOT +4.2%; the worst were UNI −14.4% and BCH −10.2% (Binance daily candles).

Price and technical picture

Binance 4-hour candles (BTCUSDT, Oct 5 00:00 – Oct 11 24:00 UTC):

• open $86,530, close $83,773, −3.19%;
• high $86,999 on Monday in the 00:00⁠–⁠04:00 UTC candle, so the week started falling from its very first bar;
• low $80,394 on Thursday, Oct 8 (16:00⁠–⁠20:00 UTC candle);
• Binance spot volume 98,019 BTC, 11.8% below the prior week (111,092 BTC).

By day: Monday −0.9%, Tuesday −0.3%, Wednesday −2.6%, Thursday −1.9%, Friday +1.1%, Saturday +0.4%, Sunday +0.9%. Four red days gave way to three green ones, but the bounce ran on thin volume: Binance spot handled just 7,438 BTC on Saturday and 6,964 BTC on Sunday against 21,677 BTC on Thursday.

Our indicators at the Oct 11 daily close:

• EMA20 $83,365, EMA50 $80,208, EMA200 $75,690. Sunday's candle closed above the EMA20 for the first time since Oct 6, the averages are still stacked bottom to top, and the EMA50/EMA200 golden cross of Sep 13 remains in place.
• RSI(14), Wilder's method, 55.5 versus 68.7 a week earlier: the near-overbought reading we flagged in the last review has been worked off.
• MACD 886 against a 1,325 signal line, histogram −439: downside momentum has been fading for four days, with no bullish cross yet.
• 200-day SMA $72,018, 50-week MA $76,622, Mayer multiple 1.17.

Levels the market worked this week:

• Resistance: $84,200⁠–⁠84,300 (Sunday's high and the Bollinger midline), then $85,000⁠–⁠85,500, where Monday's and Tuesday's lows sit, and the weekly high of $86,999. Above that, $87,220⁠–⁠87,400 still caps the market, having stopped rallies on Sep 21 and Oct 2.
• Support: $82,500, the level around which trader and analyst Rekt Capital built his structure early in the week and which the weekly candle held (Cointelegraph); below it, Friday's low of $81,600, the weekly low of $80,394 and the EMA50 near $80,200.

As of Monday morning, Polymarket put the median price for Oct 13 at $84,026 with an interquartile range of $82,744⁠–⁠85,308. For the month, the market gives 87% odds of touching $85,000 before the end of October, 39.5% for $90,000 and 52.5% for a return to $80,000 (Polymarket). The Fear & Greed index went from 73 on Tuesday to 59 on Friday and back to 69 on Monday (alternative.me). Live levels and indicators are on the Bitcoin page and in Market Pulse.

Derivatives and options

Leverage has been flushed. Open interest in Binance BTCUSDT futures fell from $8.44B on the morning of Oct 5 to $7.70B on the morning of Oct 11 (−8.8%) and recovered to $7.85B by Monday. Funding hovered near zero all week: the 30-day average is +0.0038% per 8 hours, and on Saturday and Sunday Binance printed several negative rates, meaning shorts paid longs. As of Monday morning, Binance was at +0.0011% (1.2% annualized), OKX +0.0001%, Bybit +0.0045% (4.9%), Hyperliquid +0.0058% (6.3%).

Liquidations came in waves as the price fell:

• Tuesday, Oct 6: $555.6M in 24 hours, $487.2M of it longs, with $429.8M in a single 4-hour window as price pierced $83,800 (The Block, CoinGlass data);
• Wednesday, Oct 7: $547M in 24 hours as oil topped $101 after tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz (Cryptonomist);
• Thursday–Friday: $1.09B in the 24 hours to 10:00 UTC Oct 9, $1.05B of it longs, the largest daily total since Aug 21; the low was $80,350 on Bitstamp (Cryptonomist).

The picture flipped overnight into Monday: $116M was liquidated in the 24 hours to 00:00 UTC Oct 12, 66% of it shorts (CoinGlass).

Options. Friday's Oct 9 Deribit expiry settled 21,893 BTC with max pain at $84,000 while spot sat below it near $82,465 (The Crypto Times). As of Monday morning, Deribit BTC options open interest was 375,018 BTC ($31.5B), the put/call ratio by open interest 0.58, and DVOL 38.2 versus 36.5 a week earlier: implied volatility has crept up ahead of CPI but remains low (Deribit). The next sizable expiry is Friday, Oct 16: 15,237 BTC with max pain at $83,000 and a put-heavy 1.42 put/call, where the hedges for the inflation data are concentrated. The month's main date is Oct 30: 140,787 BTC, or 37.5% of all open interest, max pain $78,000, put/call 0.47; the platform's largest strike, the $95,000 call, holds about 24,000 BTC (Crypto Briefing).

ETFs and institutions

Daily spot ETF flows (SoSoValue via TFTC and The Block), $M:

Bitcoin ETFs lost $681.1M after three weeks of inflows, the worst week since the week ending June 26 (−$1.79B then). Wednesday alone was −$487.1M: IBIT −$207.7M, FBTC −$105.1M, ARKB −$101.7M. For the week, IBIT ended almost flat (+$1.1M), FBTC gave back $380M and ARKB $207M. Year-to-date net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs shrank to $494.1M from $1.18B a week earlier; net assets stand at $105.84B. In the last review we noted that ETF demand had cooled to +$241M; now it has changed sign. Friday's details are in our note on the $21M inflow of Oct 9.

Ether ETFs logged their ninth straight session of outflows (since Sep 29, $697.2M in total), −$542.1M for the week, the worst since January. BlackRock's ETHA accounted for 88% of the week's outflow (−$477M), and Tuesday's −$201.9M coincided with the fund's 1-for-3 reverse share split. Ether ETF assets fell 10% to $15.71B, $1.44B of that from the ETH price. Solana ETFs lost $24.8M and snapped a 14-week inflow streak that The Block calls a record; Bitwise's BSOL accounted for 84% of the outflow. All three categories together gave back about $1.25B.

Companies. Strategy bought only 334 BTC for $28.7M at an average of $85,839 between Oct 1 and 4 and holds 848,000 BTC at a cost basis of $63.97B (Form 8-K); the filing for Oct 5⁠–⁠11 had not been published as of this writing. Metaplanet disclosed its quarter: it sold 10,000 BTC and bought back 11,000 to show rating agencies it can turn the reserve into cash, and holds 44,000 BTC (CoinDesk). Bitmine raised its Ether stash to 6,016,414 ETH, or 4.9% of supply, and, according to chairman Tom Lee speaking at a conference in Singapore, will stop weekly purchases at 5%; BMNR shares fell 7% on Oct 7 (24/7 Wall St.). Public companies hold 1.30M BTC, 6.19% of supply, across 180 companies (CoinGecko). Miner MARA moved 996 BTC worth $81M to Galaxy Digital amid its pivot to AI infrastructure; details.

On-chain and mining

The drop forced recent buyers to sell. Per CryptoQuant, short-term holders sent about 55,600 BTC to exchanges at a loss on Thursday, while the estimated US government holdings fell by 17,468 BTC; details. Glassnode's latest weekly snapshot, through Oct 4, had 73.6% of supply in profit and a realized profit-to-loss ratio of 1.3, meaning the market went into the drop from a state of heavy profit-taking (Glassnode).

Per our data as of Oct 11, MVRV is 1.55 (42nd percentile of history, Coin Metrics), and the short-term holder cost basis was $74,136 as of Oct 5 (BGeometrics); price is 13% above it, so the cushion before their capitulation zone remains. Stablecoin market cap is $313.0B, −0.3% for the week (DefiLlama): no new money entered the system this week. Bitcoin dominance is 59.5%, Ether's 11.0% (CoinGecko).

Mining. Hashrate per mempool.space was about 1,010 EH/s on the morning of Oct 12, difficulty 132.72 T, 67% of the epoch complete, with the next retarget expected Oct 16 at a current estimate of +5.4% (mempool.space). Fees are at the floor: 1 sat/vB for both next-block and one-hour confirmation. Hashprice was $39.87 per PH/s per day as of Sep 28, with fees under 1% of revenue (Hashrate Index); a difficulty increase with the price 3% lower will squeeze margins further, which makes MARA's 996 BTC transfer to Galaxy look logical.

Macro

The Fed. The minutes of the Sep 15⁠–⁠16 meeting, released Wednesday, Oct 7, confirmed the unanimous hike to 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% and recorded that most participants judged one more increase before year-end appropriate; PCE inflation was estimated at 3.8% (core 3.4%), and the labor market was described as close to maximum employment (Federal Reserve). On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller added: "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes" (Cointelegraph). As of Monday morning, Polymarket gave 83.5% odds of no change on Oct 28 and 74.5% odds of a 25 bp hike on Dec 9 (Polymarket).

Yields and the dollar. Per the US Treasury, the 10-year opened the week by rising to 5.31% on Monday but closed it at 5.24%, 4 bp below the previous Friday; the 2-year ended at 4.80% (−3 bp) and the 30-year at 5.60% (U.S. Treasury). Intraday on Thursday the 30-year yield reached 5.73%, a 24-year high (Cointelegraph). The dollar index DXY stood at 102.23 versus 101.93 a week earlier (+0.3%), gold at $4,213 (+1.4% for the week), VIX at 14.8 (Yahoo Finance via our feed).

Oil and geopolitics. The week's main driver. Iran attacked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday; on Wednesday NBC News, citing Pentagon sources, reported that the US was preparing new strikes on Iran, and Brent rose to $105.88 (Cointelegraph). That was the moment Bitcoin fell to $80,394. Late Thursday, Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US would not attack Iran before the Nov 3 midterm elections, calling the contacts with Tehran "productive", and oil pulled back on Friday (Al Jazeera); Brent closed Friday at $104.43 (Trading Economics). Over the weekend the Houthis attacked targets in Saudi Arabia, and Brent was back near $105 by Monday (OilPrice).

Equities held up: the S&P 500 gained 1.2% for the week and the Nasdaq 0.6%, both near their highs (Yahoo Finance via our feed). Bitcoin's 7-day correlation with the Nasdaq is about 83%, but this week crypto fell against the stock market on its own triggers: ETFs and leverage.

Altcoins of the week

Weekly moves per Binance daily candles (Oct 5 00:00 – Oct 11 24:00 UTC):

• ETH −7.0%: $2,727 → $2,537, low $2,406 on Thursday. ETH/BTC −3.9% to 0.0303. Ether was pressured by both the ETHA outflows and Bitmine's signal that its buying will soon stop.
• SOL −8.4%: $121.59 → $111.35, low $105.71. The drop came despite a technical milestone: on Oct 9 the network cut slot time to 200 ms, halving it since August; details. Solana ETFs closed the week with their largest outflow since launch, per The Block.
• XRP −7.3%: $1.52 → $1.41. During the week the XRP Ledger patched a 2015-era bug that could mint XRP out of thin air (note), and treasury company Evernorth, holding 473M XRP, starts trading on Nasdaq on Oct 12 as XRPN (note).
• BNB −5.2%, DOGE −9.5%, ADA −2.9%, HYPE −4.2%, ZEC −5.6%, LINK −6.5%.
• Best among liquid names: NEAR +19.9% ($4.92 → $5.90), ONDO +4.7%, DOT +4.2%. Worst: UNI −14.4% and BCH −10.2%. UNI faces the launch of CME futures on Oct 19 (24/7 Wall St.).

Every altcoin's low came on Thursday, Oct 8, so the decline was one wave together with Bitcoin, not a story of individual coins. Current prices are on the coins page.

Regulation and events

• CFTC on Monday, Oct 5 opened an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on two rules: Regulation CTX for leveraged trades and Regulation CAM, a new "crypto asset markets" registration category for exchanges; comments are open for 60 days. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig acknowledged that the agency still has no authority over the unleveraged spot market (CoinDesk). On Friday the commission proposed to define event contracts as swaps while excluding casino-style bets (note).
• Congress. House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill told Fox Business that the SEC and CFTC actions "fall short" and that a law is needed; the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate in September on a 49⁠–⁠50 vote (Decrypt).
• Enforcement. The New York Attorney General secured up to $35M and a lifetime crypto ban from former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky (note). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the seizure of about $1B in Iran-linked crypto (note).
• Security. Ledger confirmed a hardware implant in a victim's wallet, with losses estimated at up to $93M (note).
• Taxes and ETFs abroad. The finance committee of France's National Assembly backed a tax on crypto-to-stablecoin swaps from 2027 (note). Thailand's SEC finalized rules for spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, effective Oct 16 (note).

Calendar for the week ahead

Times are Eastern (ET).

• Mon, Oct 12: US bond market closed (Columbus Day), stocks trade. Evernorth (XRPN) starts trading on Nasdaq. Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack speaks at 12:10 PM. Deribit expiry at 4:00 AM: 2,756 BTC, max pain $83,000.
• Tue, Oct 13: Q3 earnings season opens with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo (Newsquawk). Fed speakers Waller, Barkin (1:00 PM) and Collins (4:00 PM) (Kiplinger).
• Wed, Oct 14: US CPI for September, 8:30 AM, consensus +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y, core +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y (Newsquawk). Earnings from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Fed Beige Book at 2:00 PM; Bowman and Barkin speak.
• Thu, Oct 15: US PPI and retail sales for September, 8:30 AM (retail sales consensus +0.3% m/m). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks, the last scheduled remarks before the Oct 28 decision; calendars differ on the time (investingLive).
• Fri, Oct 16: Deribit expiry at 4:00 AM: 15,237 BTC, max pain $83,000, put/call 1.42 (Deribit data from our feed). Estimated Bitcoin difficulty retarget (+5.4% on the current estimate). Thailand's SEC crypto ETF rules take effect. US industrial production for September.
• Further out: Oct 19 CME launches UNI futures; Oct 27⁠–⁠28 FOMC meeting; Oct 28 Strategy shareholder vote on preferred-stock dividends (Bitcoin Magazine); Oct 30 Deribit monthly expiry of 140,787 BTC.

Bottom line: base case for the week

Bitcoin enters the week in the middle of the $80,400⁠–⁠87,000 range with leverage cleared out: Binance open interest is down 7% on the week, funding is near zero, RSI is back at 55, and Sunday's candle closed above the EMA20. Working against the market is money: ETFs are bleeding in all three categories, stablecoins are not growing, Bitmine and Strategy have all but stopped buying, and the Fed minutes and Waller speak plainly about another hike. In its favor: Trump has taken an Iran strike off the table until Nov 3, stocks are at highs, and shorts have already started paying for their positions.

Base case (our view): a range of $82,500⁠–⁠86,000 with Wednesday as the decisive day. CPI above the 3.6% y/y consensus would push yields back toward 5.3% and most likely send price to test $82,500 and the $81,600 low. A soft print and a calm Warsh on Thursday give a chance to close the gap to $85,000⁠–⁠85,500 and, if ETF inflows return, to revisit $87,000.

• Breakout: holding above $86,999 is plausible only with several consecutive days of positive ETF flows and Brent below $100; targets are $87,400 and the yearly open at $87,648.
• Pullback: losing $82,500 on a hot CPI opens $80,394 and the EMA50 at $80,200; below that, the reference points remain the October expiry's max pain at $78,000 and the short-term holder cost basis at $74,136.

Historical analogues are in the fractals section: six similar two-week patterns produced gains in only one case, while over six months four of six did. The day's numbers are in the daily briefing.

This is not investment advice.