JPMorgan Pegs Bitcoin Returns at 10% a Year Over 10⁠–⁠15 Years

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has put bitcoin into its 2027 long-term return assumptions, projecting a 10% compound annual return over the next 10⁠–⁠15 years. That compares with 7.5% for US large-cap stocks, 5.5% for gold and 8.2% for US REITs. The assumptions were published on October 19.

Details

In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions release, the firm said it is giving a range on bitcoin returns for the first time, while stressing that bitcoin is not included as an allocation. The headline forecast for a classic 60/40 portfolio is 7.0% a year. The report lives on J.P. Morgan Asset Management's site.

The bitcoin figures come from Wu Blockchain and Cryptobriefing: an arithmetic annual return of 20.9% and annualized volatility of 55%, against roughly 18% for large-cap US stocks and 17.2% for gold. The gap between 20.9% and 10% reflects drawdowns: at that volatility, compound returns fall well below the arithmetic average.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, per Wu Blockchain, said the numbers make bitcoin the highest-returning asset over the coming decade.

What it means for the market

This is not a call to buy bitcoin: J.P. Morgan itself keeps it out of its sample portfolios and only shows a range. What matters to institutions is the placement: bitcoin now sits in the assumptions table of one of the world's largest asset managers, which advisers and pension funds use as a reference.

A 10⁠–⁠15 year estimate says nothing about the coming weeks. For the live price see the daily briefing and the bitcoin page.