Bitcoin Below $81,000: 3-Week Low as $430M in Positions Liquidated
Bitcoin slid to $80,800 on Oct. 8, its lowest since Sept. 20, down 3% in 24 hours. About $430M in positions were liquidated as oil jumped 4.8% on Iran fears and ETFs bled.
Bitcoin broke below its recent range on Thursday, Oct. 8, and fell to $80,800, which our data shows is the lowest level since Sept. 20. At 16:15 UTC the price stood at $81,030, down about 3% over 24 hours, after a session high of $83,680. The pressure came from three directions at once: oil rallying on reports of new US strike plans against Iran, Treasury yields at multi-decade highs, and the heaviest bitcoin ETF outflows since June.
Details
CoinGlass data cited by Decrypt shows roughly $429 million in positions liquidated over 24 hours, 87.5% of them longs. Bitcoin accounted for $135.5 million and ether for $96.1 million, with $202 million wiped out in the final four hours. From its Sept. 21 peak of $87,354, bitcoin is down 5.6% and, as the outlet notes, has given back nearly half of its September gains. Altcoins fell harder: per CoinDesk, ether lost up to 5%, XRP 4.9% and Solana 6.7%. By our data, total crypto market capitalization shrank 6.1% on the day.
The macro backdrop worsened overnight. NBC News reported that the US military is preparing fresh strikes on Iran, and a tanker was attacked off the coast of Qatar, Cointelegraph reported. WTI climbed toward $93.20 and Brent toward $105.90 a barrel; our data puts WTI up 4.8% on the day. The 30-year Treasury yield set a 24-year high above 5.73%, and the 10-year rose toward 5.35%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, in a speech in Istanbul, said: "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal." Polymarket prices a December hike at 75%.
Fund money is leaving. Bitcoin ETFs posted their worst day since June on Oct. 7, while ether ETFs, according to CryptoSlate, have bled for seven straight sessions, about $569 million in total, including $160.9 million on Oct. 7. The US government's transfers added to the nerves: more than 21,500 seized BTC have moved in two days.
What it means for the market
Leverage is coming out. Our data shows bitcoin perpetual futures open interest down 4.5% over 24 hours to $7.65 billion and down 6.9% over the week. The DVOL implied volatility index rose to 39.4 from 35.2 a week ago. The Fear & Greed Index slipped to 64 from 71 but remains in "Greed" territory, so there is no sign of panic yet. Price has dropped below the 20-day moving average ($83,270) but holds above the 50-day ($79,630).
The nearest checkpoint is the Oct. 9 options expiry covering 22,900 BTC with a max pain level of $84,000, and the big one is Oct. 30, where 137,800 BTC are open with max pain at $78,000. As long as oil and yields keep rising, pressure on risk assets is unlikely to ease. Follow the day's picture on our dashboard and the bitcoin page.
