1Price and market
- BTC at $85,674 as of 18:25 UTC, +0.20% over 24 hours; daily range $85,136–86,699, with the daily candle opening at $85,767.Binance
- Up 2.4% on the week and 6.6% over 30 days; weekly high $87,220, low $82,956; 30-day high $87,396, which is also the 90-day high.Binance
- Binance BTCUSDT spot volume over 24 hours was 12,704 BTC (~$1.09 billion), quieter than Monday (16,885 BTC).Binance
4 more facts
- BTC market cap $1.72 trillion, dominance 58.7%; the whole crypto market is $2.92 trillion, −2.6% in a day, with altcoins weaker than bitcoin.CoinGecko
- Exactly a year ago, on Oct 6, 2025, BTC set its record of $126,080; the price is now 32.1% below it and −31.6% year over year.CoinGecko
- From Monday morning to Tuesday morning the price made a round trip: open at $86,190, peak at $86,700, a dip to almost $84,970 as Treasury yields rose, and a return to $86,230.Bitcoin News Digest
- At 7:30 a.m. New York time on Oct 6 BTC was $86,281, $178 above a day earlier; by evening Moscow time it was back at $85,700.Fortune
2Technical analysis
- Daily RSI(14) is 46.7: neutral, neither overbought nor oversold.Binance
- MACD 1,943 versus a signal line of 2,038, histogram −95 and widening for a second day: upside momentum keeps fading.Binance
- EMA20 $83,539, EMA50 $79,424, EMA200 $75,217, 50-week MA $77,191: price is above every average, and the trend stays up after the Sep 13 golden cross.Binance
5 more facts
- Resistance at $86,700–87,400: the highs of Sep 21, Oct 5 and Oct 6; above that, the yearly open near $87,500 and $90,000.Binance
- Supports: $85,000–85,136 (Oct 5 and Oct 6 lows), $84,000 (bottom of the FXStreet range), $83,540 (EMA20), SuperTrend $79,910.FXStreet
- On Sep 30 Glassnode flagged a wall of sell orders at $85,000–85,500 that capped the price; that zone now acts as support and has held two tests.Glassnode
- On Oct 5 the QCP desk named $87,200 as the threshold for the rally to continue; while price stays below it, the market remains range-bound.Bitcoin News Digest
- BTC Radar fractals: of 6 similar two-week stretches in history, 5 were followed by gains, with a median of +5.7% over the next 2 weeks; on the 50-day window 4 of 6 went up with a median of +8.5%, on the six-month window 4 of 6 with a median of +22.5%.BTC Radar
3Derivatives
- BTC liquidations for Oct 6 (UTC, as of evening) total only $29 million: longs $13.5 million, shorts $15.5 million, 2,631 traders hit. That is 0.42 of the weekly average, a very quiet day.CoinGlass
- The largest single liquidation of the day was $5.8 million; 44% of BTC liquidations occurred on Binance, followed by Bybit at 13% and Gate at 13%.CoinGlass
- Across the whole crypto market $148 million was liquidated over 24 hours, 39% less than a day earlier; the long/short split is 48.3/51.7.CoinGlass
5 more facts
- On Oct 5, after the rejection at $87,000, BTC liquidations came to about $109 million, of which $62 million were shorts.Bitcoin.com
- Binance BTCUSDT funding is −0.0013%, with a 30-day average of +0.0046%: long leverage is not overheated and shorts pay almost nothing.Binance
- Binance BTCUSDT open interest is 95,857 BTC ($8.21 billion): −4.1% in a day, +4.4% on the week. Some positions were closed after the rejection at $87,000.Binance
- Binance long/short by accounts is 1.09 (52.1% long), 1.78 among top traders; taker buy/sell 0.96: aggressive buying is weaker than selling.Binance
- Mark price $85,632 against an index of $85,686: the perpetual trades at a minimal discount to spot.Binance
4Options
- Deribit BTC options open interest is 358,577 BTC ($30.7 billion); put/call by OI is 0.56, so calls dominate the book.Deribit
- DVOL is 36.2 versus 35.9 a week ago: implied volatility is near its lows and the market expects no sharp moves.Deribit
- Oct 7 expiry: 2,266 BTC, max pain $86,000, put/call 1.28; Oct 8: 2,215 BTC, max pain $86,500. Both levels sit close to the current price.Deribit
5 more facts
- The nearest large expiry is Friday Oct 9: 21,612 BTC, max pain $84,000, put/call 1.12. That is $1,700 below the current price.Deribit
- Oct 16: 8,539 BTC, max pain $85,000; the monthly Oct 30 expiry: 125,320 BTC (35% of total OI), max pain $78,000, put/call 0.40.Deribit
- The quarterly Dec 25 expiry: 121,583 BTC, max pain $75,000, put/call 0.61; Nov 27: 20,982 BTC, max pain $80,000.Deribit
- A large bet from late September: a $3.2 million butterfly via Paradigm targeting $95,000 by Oct 30 (long the $90,000 and $100,000 calls, short 2× $95,000), data as of Sep 22.CoinDesk
- Glassnode as of Sep 28: 25-delta skew +2.39%, meaning puts are slightly pricier than calls, and the implied-minus-realized volatility spread is −10.7%.Glassnode
5ETFs and institutions
- US spot BTC ETFs on Monday Oct 5: net outflow of $89.8 million. IBIT +$69.9 million, FBTC −$74.5 million, ARKB −$85.2 million; Oct 6 data will arrive overnight Moscow time.Farside
- The five sessions from Sep 29 to Oct 5 brought +$120.3 million, while the week to Sep 25 brought +$2.39 billion: ETF demand has cooled noticeably.Farside
- Cumulative net inflow into all spot BTC ETFs is $57.8 billion, of which IBIT holds $65.8 billion; GBTC has lost $27.9 billion since conversion.Farside
4 more facts
- Strategy bought 334 BTC on Oct 1–4 for $28.7 million at an average of $85,839, bringing its total to 848,000 BTC. Its dollar reserve is $4.8 billion and its Q3 gain on digital assets was $20.91 billion.FXStreet
- Strive bought 2,000 BTC (~$169 million) on Sep 28–Oct 2, lifting holdings to 29,462 BTC; in Q3 the company bought 8,137 BTC at an average of $78,885.SEC
- In Q3 Metaplanet sold 10,000 BTC for about $790 million and bought back 11,000 BTC for ~$950 million to show its reserve is liquid. As of Sep 30 it holds 44,000 BTC, the second-largest public holder.247wallst
- Metaplanet updated its policy: 85–90% of assets will be held in bitcoin, with the rest going to investments and M&A deals.Cryptotimes
6Sentiment and on-chain
- The Fear & Greed Index is 73 ("greed"): 70 yesterday, also 73 a week and a month ago.alternative.me
- Glassnode: whales were net depositing BTC to exchanges for over three months, twice as long as similar episodes since 2023. That ended in late August, whale flows turned negative and selling pressure eased.Chaincatcher
- CryptoQuant (Oct 2): whale holdings grew by 75,000 BTC over 30 days.FXStreet
4 more facts
- Glassnode (Sep 30): price is above key cost-basis levels and profit-taking is light, but ETF inflows have faded and volumes are low.Glassnode
- Glassnode's next major on-chain resistance is the mean MVRV price near $96,700; the True Market Mean near $77,000 remains far below.Glassnode
- Glassnode Market Pulse as of Sep 28: 74.0% of supply in profit (69.3% a week earlier), realized P/L 1.4, ETF holder MVRV 1.49.Glassnode
- Long-term holders remain in profit: LTH-MVRV never fell below 1 in this cycle.Hokanews
7Mining
- Hashrate 968 EH/s (7-day), difficulty 132.72 T, block height 970,211.mempool.space
- The next difficulty retarget is expected on Oct 16: 25.5% of the epoch done, 1,501 blocks left, current estimate +3.4%. The previous adjustment was −0.03%.mempool.space
- Fees are at the floor: 3 sat/vB for the next block, 1 sat/vB for about an hour's wait. On-chain demand for block space is weak.mempool.space
3 more facts
- Hashprice is $40.74 per PH/s per day at a hashrate of 983.65 EH/s: mining revenue is near breakeven for many operators.Hashrateindex
- Difficulty is 15% below the record 155.97 T of Oct 29, 2025; epoch 481 started at 132.716 T versus 132.757 T, with blocks arriving almost on schedule.CoinWarz
- 79,789 blocks remain until the halving, estimated for Apr 12, 2028.mempool.space
8Macro
- The Fed funds rate is 3.75–4.00% after the Sep 16 hike. For the Oct 27–28 meeting markets price a hold at 78–84% and a hike at 17–24%; a week ago a hike was seen at ~70%.CME FedWatch
- Minutes of the Sep 15–16 FOMC meeting come out on Wednesday Oct 7 at 18:00 UTC. Markets want to know how firmly the Fed is committed to the promised extra hike after weak data.Investinglive
- ISM services for September came in at 54.9 versus 55.4 in August, but the prices index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022: inflation risk persists.Prnewswire
7 more facts
- The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.27% (−0.8% on the day) after 5.31% the day before; 30-year bonds fell to 5.64% after Monday's 5.70%, the highest since 2002.Trading Economics
- The 2-year yield is 4.64% per Yahoo Finance, +3.1% over 5 days; other sources gave 4.83% at the Oct 2 close, so the data diverge.Yahoo Finance
- The DXY dollar index is 101.81 (−0.35% on the day) after 102.17 on Monday: dollar pressure on risk assets has eased.Yahoo Finance
- S&P 500 at 7,827 (+0.68%) and Nasdaq at 27,649 (+0.62%) near record highs, VIX 15.1 (−2.9%). Risk appetite in equities is strong, and BTC is lagging.Yahoo Finance
- Gold $4,197 (+1.0%); WTI crude $89.2, Brent around $100.8. Saudi Aramco deepened its November discount for Asia as flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover.Trading Economics
- ADP: in the four weeks to Sep 19, US private employers added an average of 23,750 jobs a week, with hiring accelerating for a fifth straight week.Adpemploymentreport
- On Oct 6 Bank of Japan Governor Ueda did not push back on bets against an October hike, but repeated that rates will keep rising: the risk to the yen carry trade is not growing for now.FXStreet
9Regulation and events
- On Oct 5 the CFTC proposed Regulation CTX (leveraged and margined retail crypto trading) and Regulation CAM (a new Crypto Asset Markets exchange category), with a 60-day comment period. Ordinary spot exchanges stay under state oversight.CoinDesk
- FinCEN withdrew two unfinished rules: the 2020 proposal on reporting transfers above $10,000 to unhosted wallets and the 2023 special measure against mixers.Bitcoin News Digest
- The CLARITY Act failed in the Senate on Sep 15 (cloture 49–50 with 60 needed). The SEC and CFTC are filling the gap with their own rules: in late September the SEC proposed crypto custody rules.Crypto
5 more facts
- On Sep 17 the SEC gave tokenized securities venues a five-year exemption from the definition of an exchange; on Sep 24 the Fed proposed two GENIUS Act rules for stablecoin issuers.CoinDesk
- Geopolitics: the US–Iran conflict continues. This week ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and Houthi attacks on shipping and an oil pipeline.Troweprice
- Calendar: Wednesday Oct 7 — FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC and a $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction; Thursday Oct 8 — $22 billion of 30-year bonds; Oct 14 — September CPI; Oct 28 — Fed decision.Trading Economics
- ETH ETFs have seen outflows for five straight sessions: −$50.8 million on Oct 5 (ETHA −$31.9 million, FETH −$18.9 million), −$206 million over Sep 29–Oct 5; cumulative inflow $13.8 billion.Farside
- ETH is around $2,716, with ETH dominance at 11.2% versus 58.7% for BTC. Capital is concentrating in bitcoin while altcoins lag.CoinGecko