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Sunday, October 11, 2026

Bitcoin today, October 11, 2026: price and forecast

Morning brief · Oct 11, 1:45 AM ET · price at release $83,078

As of 1:30 AM ET Bitcoin traded at $83,078: +0.5% on the day, and the Oct 10 candle closed up 0.4% with a range of just 0.8% — the quietest day since Oct 3.

  • The base case for Sunday, Oct 11, is a sideways $82,300⁠–⁠84,000 range: Binance volume at a quarter of Thursday's, DVOL at 37, funding negative on three of four exchanges, a Polymarket median for tomorrow of $83,052 and weekend expiry max pain at $82,000⁠–⁠82,500 all pin the price near its recent levels.
  • The main intrigue is the weekly close at 8:00 PM ET Sunday relative to $82,500 (a cushion of about $580); the main upside chance is a squeeze of shorts, which have begun paying longs; the main risk is a −4% week with $681 million of ETF outflows and a weak Ether.
BTC / USD
$83,529
24h+0.6%7d-3.5%30d+8.2%
BTC converter
120 days of daily closes; dashed — EMA 20 and EMA 50. Binance, updated Oct 11, 6:00 PM ET.
Fear & Greed
61
greed, yesterday 64
Funding Binance, 8h
0.002%
30-day avg 0.004%
Open interest, Binance
$7.70B
24h +0.6%
Below ATH
-33.8%
ATH $126,080
Max pain, Deribit
$83,000
expiry Oct 16
RSI (1D)
54
neutral

Bitcoin price prediction for October 11, 2026

Three scenarios for the day with probabilities. Recorded in the morning and never edited: checked against the close in the Accuracy section.

base case
Sideways
$82,300–$84,000
55%
55%
22%
23%
Resistance
$83,230
$83,530
$84,300
Support
$82,500
$81,600
$80,400
Sideways · 55%
$82,300–$84,000

A Sunday with no macro data or ETF flows; Binance 24-hour volume of 7,199 BTC — a quarter of Thursday's; DVOL at 37 and funding near zero price in no move, OI −6.6% on the week — leverage has not returned. The Polymarket median for Oct 12 of $83,052 (interquartile $82,190⁠–⁠83,914) matches the range, max pain for the Oct 11 and Oct 12 expiries is $82,500 and $82,000, and for the Oct 16 expiry $83,000. Traders are waiting for CPI on Oct 14, and until then the price is pinned between the EMA20 at $83,231 above and $82,500 below.

Pullback · 22%
$80,400–$82,300

The week is closing at −4%: ETFs lost $681 million, Ether is −7% with nine days of ETH ETF outflows, stablecoins are not growing, gold and the dollar are rising together. A weekly close below $82,500 would, per Rekt Capital, turn the level into resistance; Oct 30 skew worsened to −2.9 — puts are getting pricier. Two-week fractals give only one gain in six (median −2.0%). Catalysts — fresh Houthi strikes and Brent above $105 at the Sunday evening open, or a thin market; targets — the Oct 9 low of $81,600, the lower Bollinger Band at $81,400 and the $80,400 zone, where the Oct 8 low and the EMA50 converge.

Breakout · 23%
$84,000–$85,500

Squeeze +63: funding negative on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid, only shorts being liquidated on Binance over the day ($2.2 million versus $0.7 million of longs), long/short 1.48 — there is fuel for a squeeze higher. ETFs returned to inflows on Oct 9, the S&P 500 is near a record, the greed index is at 61, and the Oct 30 expiry has twice as many calls as puts. To get above $84,000 the price must clear the EMA20 at $83,231, the Oct 9 high of $83,530 and the middle Bollinger Band at $84,281; Polymarket gives above $84,000 only 22.5%.

What to watch today
  • Expiry of 3,385 BTC on Deribit at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET) with max pain at $82,500 — just below the price, mild downward pressure in the morning
  • The weekly close at 00:00 UTC Monday (8:00 PM ET Sunday) relative to $82,500: above — the retest is passed, below — the level becomes resistance
  • A reclaim of the EMA20 at $83,231 and the Oct 9 high of $83,530 — or a repeat test of $82,500 and the Oct 9 low of $81,600
  • Yemen and Iran: fresh Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia or steps toward talks; Brent's reaction at the Sunday evening futures open
  • Ether: holding $2,500 after nine days of ETH ETF outflows — its weakness drags the whole market; the Polymarket ladder for Oct 12 settles at 12:00 ET
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded in the morning and never edited: after the daily close it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.
Morning brief and news on TelegramEvery morning: price, scenario of the day, squeeze risk. Key news during the day.
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Market pulse

What usually takes five different sites: how overheated the market is, what money on Polymarket is betting on, where demand comes from and who is getting liquidated right now.

Market temperature

One number from 8 cycle and sentiment indicators: 0 is panic and historically cheap, 100 is euphoria and overheating.

37
Coolthe market has cooled, no overheating
0255075100
What goes into the temperature
MVRVmarket value vs. the price all coins were bought at
1.54
27
Mayer multipleprice vs. the 200-day average
1.16
31
Above the 200-week averagehow far price is above the long-cycle floor
+25.8%
17
Pi Cycle1.0 is the historical top signal
0.46
23
Below all-time highthe closer to ATH, the hotter
-33.8%
58
Fear & Greedalternative.me sentiment index
61
61
Funding, annualizedaverage of Binance, Bybit, OKX and Hyperliquid
1.8%
24
RSI (1D)daily chart momentum
54
56
Temperature by day
Short-term holder cost basis: $73,845 — average price of coins bought in the last 155 days (BGeometrics, data as of October 4, 2026, free tier delayed 7 days)

What the market thinks: Polymarket odds

Money, not opinions: probabilities implied by Polymarket bets. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Market median for October 12, 2026, 12:00 ET
$83,397
half of outcomes fall within $82,534–$84,515; chance to be above the current price: 46%
Our base case for the October 11, 2026 close: sideways $82,300–$84,000
Probability BTC will be above the level
$78,000
100%
$80,000
99%
$82,000
90%
$84,000
32%
$86,000
3%
$88,000
1%
Source: Polymarket · bet volume $414,511
Higher or lower than today 12:00 ET, by 12:00 ET October 12, 2026
higher 40%
lower 60%
October targets: price BTC will touch
↑ $85,00080%
↑ $87,50054%
↑ $90,00036%
↑ $92,50022%
↓ $82,50084%
↓ $80,00057%
↓ $77,50034%
↓ $75,00020%
Fed decision, meeting October 27–28
No change84%
25 bps increase16%
25 bps decrease1%
Fed decision, meeting December 8–9
25 bps increase74%
No change22%
50+ bps increase3%

Squeeze risk: who is overcrowded — longs or shorts

Our indicator: futures positioning on 4 exchanges, basis, Deribit options and liquidations. Each input is compared with its own 7-day norm; updated every 15 minutes.

+3
Balancedno clear imbalance — a squeeze is unlikely
3-day backdrop+6Balanced7 days: +17hourly average — the slow line, like smoothed oscillators
−100 · longs0shorts · +100
14 days, hourly
InputNowContribution
Funding, 4-exchange average, per 8hBinance, Bybit, OKX, Hyperliquid; negative means shorts pay longs
0.0032%
+0.4σ
Basis: perp vs spotperp below spot means shorts are pressing
-0.039%
−1.1σ
Long/short, all accountsshare of accounts long vs short
1.39
+0.1σ
Long/short, top tradersby position size of the largest accounts
1.55
+1.0σ
Taker buy/sell, 6hwho is more aggressive: buyers or sellers
1.10
−0.8σ
Deribit options: puts vs calls25Δ risk reversal, ~30 days; negative means downside protection is pricier
-3.21 pts
+1.5σ
Liquidations, 24hwho got flushed: positive means longs, long crowding cleared
-65%longs $2.30M / shorts $10.94M
−1.0σ
Open interestabove norm means more leverage, more fuel for a squeeze
$7.75B24h +1.0%
fuel 0.0σ

This is a risk gauge, not a direction call: a squeeze only happens if price moves against the crowded side. Confirmation is a range break together with liquidations and falling open interest.

BTC liquidations on Binance: live

Positions the exchange closes by force. Binance publishes at most one liquidation per second, so this is a lower bound.

Waiting for the first liquidations… The feed fills in real time.
More: Coinbase premium, funding by exchange, stablecoins, companies holding BTC
Coinbase premium
0.002%
Almost no gap: Coinbase and Binance trade level
Binance price converted to USD at USDT $0.9989
Stablecoins in circulation
$312.77B
-0.29% this week, +0.85% this month: "dry powder" for crypto buying
Funding by exchange, annualized
Binance
2.2%
Bybit
6.1%
OKX
1.6%
Hyperliquid
-2.8%
positive: longs pay shorts, the market expects upside
Bitcoin in corporate treasuries
1,300,009 BTC
180 companies hold 1,300,009 BTC (6.2% of 21M)
Strategy847,999 BTC
Twenty One Capital43,514 BTC
Metaplanet43,000 BTC
MARA Holdings35,303 BTC

Daily brief

Nine topics, three key facts each. Every fact links to its primary source.

1Price and market

  • As of 1:30 AM ET Bitcoin traded at $83,078: +0.5% on the day, with a 24-hour range of $82,640⁠–⁠83,173. Sunday morning was quiet — for a second day the price held inside a band less than $600 wide.Binance
  • The Oct 10 daily candle closed at $82,988 (+0.4%) after opening at $82,636, with a high of $83,173 and a low of $82,546 — a range of just 0.8%, the narrowest day since Oct 3. The Oct 11 candle opened at $82,988 and traded $82,805⁠–⁠83,151 into the morning.Binance
  • The weekly candle opened Oct 5 at $86,530; by Sunday morning the price was 4.0% lower, while the 30-day change stood at +7.6%. The week's high was $86,999 and its low $80,394 — the weekly close at 8:00 PM ET Sunday will decide the fate of the $82,500 level.Binance
5 more facts
  • Spot BTC/USDT volume on Binance over 24 hours was 7,199 BTC ($597 million) — a third less than the day before (11,055 BTC) and a quarter of Thursday's: a weekend with neither buyers nor sellers.Binance
  • Bitcoin's market cap stood at $1.67 trillion with 59.1% dominance; the total crypto market at $2.81 trillion. The all-time high of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025) was 34.2% away.CoinGecko
  • Altcoins lost more than Bitcoin over the week: by the morning of Oct 11 ETH traded at $2,502 (+0.3% on the day, −7.0% on the week), SOL $109 (−9.3% on the week), XRP $1.39 (−6.3%), BNB $747 (−4.7%), DOGE −7.7%, HYPE $85 (−5.3%).CoinGecko
  • A year after the Oct 10, 2025 flash crash, BTC order-book depth within 1% of price had grown to $11.7 million as of Oct 7 — 75% more than on the day of the crash — but it thinned by 12% in the Oct 7⁠–⁠8 selloff; altcoin depth within 5% of price has shrunk by a third over eighteen months, to $2 million.CoinDesk
  • Spot volumes remain low: the four weeks to Sep 27 averaged $279 billion a week versus $801 billion in the week of the crash; turnover has doubled from the August low of $135 billion, but liquidity has flowed to Bitcoin and Ether, not to alts.CoinDesk

2Technical analysis

  • Daily RSI(14) 52.1 versus 50.5 a day earlier: the indicator sits just above the neutral midpoint — no momentum in either direction.Binance
  • MACD 873 versus a signal line of 1,424, histogram −551 versus −588 the day before: the negative gap has been narrowing for a third day, but there is no bullish crossover yet.Binance
  • The price sat only $150 below the EMA20 ($83,231) — the average remains the first resistance of the day. Below: EMA50 $80,025, 50-week MA $77,139, EMA200 $75,582. The Sep 13 golden cross remains in force.Binance
6 more facts
  • Rekt Capital: a weekly close above ~$82,500 would keep the prior $82,500⁠–⁠86,700 range as support, while a close below would send the price into a retest from beneath. By the morning of Oct 11 the cushion above the level was about $580.Crypto
  • Colin Talks Crypto sees a double top at $87,000 — a local reversal with a breakdown that need not lead to new cycle lows: the correction could form a higher low. Bitget Wallet flags the $82,000⁠–⁠82,500 liquidation zone, below which the path leads to $80,000, while a move toward $95,000 would require reclaiming $87,500.Crypto
  • Bollinger Band levels: resistance at $83,468, $84,281 (middle band) and $87,151 (upper band); support at $81,410 (lower band), the $80,300⁠–⁠81,700 zone and $79,600⁠–⁠80,000.Crypto
  • Above lies the $85,000⁠–⁠85,500 zone and then $87,000⁠–⁠87,400: since Sep 21 the price has failed four times to hold above $87,000, which is exactly where the double top formed.Kucoin
  • Fractals: the two-week stretch (−1.7% since Sep 27) resembles six historical episodes, only one of which ended in gains, with a median of −2.0% over the following two weeks; the 50-day stretch (+5.8% since Aug 22) — four gains out of six, median +1.3%; the six-month stretch — three out of six, median +1.6%. Short history is cautious, longer history neutral.CoinLab
  • The Polymarket median for Oct 12 (12:00 ET) was $83,052 with an interquartile range of $82,190⁠–⁠83,914 — right in the middle of our base sideways range; the betting market put the odds of a price above $82,000 at 80.5%, above $84,000 at 22.5%, above $86,000 at 3%.Polymarket

3Derivatives

  • Liquidations over the 24 hours to 06:55 UTC Oct 10 totaled $91.6 million, 62% of it shorts: BTC $46.9 million, ETH $20.6 million, SOL $6.8 million — after Thursday's $1.19 billion the market has deleveraged.Tokenpost
  • By 00:04 UTC Oct 11 the rolling 24 hours produced just $45.7 million across 27,677 orders: shorts $31.4 million (69%), longs $14.4 million; Bitcoin accounted for only $3.5 million, almost all of it shorts. The largest single position was a $1.5 million SOL short on OKX. Another estimate for the morning of Oct 11 (UTC+8) gave $108 million for the day, BTC $6.1 million, ETH $9.6 million.Tokenpost
  • The BTCUSDT liquidation stream on Binance (lower-bound estimate) over 24 hours: $2.21 million of shorts versus $0.74 million of longs across 218 events; the largest was a 7.9 BTC short ($659K) at $82,937 on the afternoon of Oct 10. Over the final hour only shorts were taken out.Binance
5 more facts
  • BTCUSDT open interest on Binance 92,749 BTC ($7.70 billion): +1.0% on the day, −6.6% on the week; leverage has not returned since the $8.44 billion of Oct 5, leaving little fuel for a cascade in either direction.Binance
  • Funding turned negative on three of four exchanges: Binance −0.0005% per 8h (−0.6% annualized), Bybit −0.0019% (−2.1%), Hyperliquid −0.0072% (−7.9% annualized), OKX +0.0002% — shorts are paying longs, while the 30-day average on Binance was still +0.0039%.Bybit
  • The long/short ratio by accounts on Binance was 1.48 (59.7% long), 1.54 among top traders; takers leaned slightly toward selling — buy/sell 0.97 versus 1.07 the day before.Binance
  • The CoinLab squeeze indicator read +63 on a ±100 scale versus −16 yesterday: negative funding, a rising share of shorts and expensive puts shifted the imbalance to the sellers' side — on a move up, they are the ones who would get squeezed.CoinLab
  • Mark Connors (Risk Dimensions) on the crash anniversary: 'Positioning mattered then and matters today,' and leveraged products have not gone anywhere; Chris Sullivan (Hyperion Decimus) advises watching open interest, funding and sentiment and waiting for extremes.CoinDesk

4Options

  • BTC options open interest on Deribit 376,465 BTC ($31.2 billion) versus 377,747 BTC a day earlier; put/call by OI 0.59 — calls still clearly outnumber puts.Deribit
  • DVOL 37.0 versus 36.7 yesterday and 35.4 a week ago: implied volatility has edged higher for a third day but remains low — the market is not pricing a sharp move before CPI.Deribit
  • Today, Oct 11, at 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM ET) 3,385 BTC expire with max pain at $82,500 and a put skew (1.69); tomorrow, Oct 12 — 2,278 BTC with max pain at $82,000 and a call skew (0.40). Both points sit just below the price — the Sunday expiry tugs slightly lower.Deribit
4 more facts
  • The nearest large expiry is Oct 16: 15,049 BTC (about $1.25 billion) with max pain at $83,000 and put/call 1.50 — the size barely changed over the day (14,983 BTC); the weekly puts ahead of CPI are already in place.Deribit
  • The main expiry of the month, Oct 30 — 140,885 BTC ($11.7 billion), 37% of the entire book, max pain $78,000, put/call 0.48: twice as many calls as puts, so bets on a rally into month-end remain.Deribit
  • Skew on the Oct 30 contracts worsened to −2.9 points from −1.9 a day earlier: puts are getting pricier relative to calls, with demand for downside protection rising ahead of the weekly close and CPI.Deribit
  • Further out: Nov 27 — 23,483 BTC with max pain at $80,000; Dec 25 — 126,364 BTC with max pain at $75,000 and put/call 0.61. The price sits $5,000⁠–⁠8,000 above the max pain points of the longer-dated contracts.Deribit

5ETFs and institutions

  • Last trading day: spot BTC ETFs took in +$21.1 million on Oct 9 (IBIT +$22.4 million, HODL +$2.3 million, FBTC −$3.6 million) — the first inflow after two days of $731 million in outflows. No data for Saturday and Sunday; the funds do not trade.247wallst
  • The week of Oct 5⁠–⁠9 closed with $681.1 million of outflows (Oct 5 −$89.9 million, Oct 6 +$118.9 million, Oct 7 −$487.1 million, Oct 8 −$244.1 million, Oct 9 +$21.1 million) — the end of a three-week inflow streak; only the week to Jun 26 (−$1.79 billion) was worse.The Block
  • BTC ETF assets $105.8 billion versus $110.8 billion on Oct 5 — of the $4.9 billion decline, only $591 million came from withdrawals, the rest from the price drop. Cumulative net inflows stand at $57.11 billion; the 2026 year-to-date figure shrank to $494 million from $1.18 billion a week earlier.The Block
6 more facts
  • ETH ETFs lost $542.1 million over the week — the worst result since January: the outflow streak reached nine sessions (−$697.2 million since Sep 29), BlackRock's ETHA accounted for $477 million (88%), assets fell 10% to $15.71 billion; Oct 9 brought another −$56.1 million.The Block
  • Solana ETFs snapped a record 14-week inflow streak (−$24.8 million for the week, assets $1.73 billion); XRP ETFs, by contrast, are heading for a 13th week of inflows (+$11.3 million). Money leaves altcoin funds first.The Block
  • Strategy, per its 8-K filed Oct 5, holds 848,000 BTC bought for $63.97 billion (average $75,441); during Oct 1⁠–⁠4 it bought just 334 BTC at $85,839, while about $176 million went to buy back 1.7 million STRC preferred shares. The company usually publishes its next purchase report on Monday.SEC
  • STRC closed Friday near $99.71 — the highest since June; new STRC issuance to fund Bitcoin purchases is possible only at a price no lower than $100 par, so the next purchases hinge on that mark.Yahoo Finance
  • Metaplanet, per its Oct 5 disclosure, holds 44,000 BTC: in Q3 the company sold 10,000 BTC and bought back 11,000 for $950 million. Public companies in total hold 1.30 million BTC ($107.9 billion, 6.2% of supply) across 180 companies.CoinDesk
  • On Oct 9 MARA moved 996 BTC ($81.1 million) to a Galaxy Digital address — a sale is unconfirmed; on Oct 8 US government wallets shuffled 12,267 BTC ($1.01 billion) of coins seized from Bitfinex without any exchange deposit.CoinDesk

6Sentiment and on-chain

  • The Fear and Greed Index read 61 ('greed') versus 64 yesterday, 65 a week ago and 56 a month ago: sentiment has cooled, but 'fear' is still far off.alternative.me
  • The Coinbase premium over Binance was −0.004% after adjusting for the USDT/USD rate, −0.11% unadjusted: virtually no gap, with US demand showing nothing notable over the weekend.Coinbase
  • MVRV 1.54 as of Oct 10 (41st historical percentile): the average holder sits on a 54% profit, with no overheating. The Mayer Multiple was 1.16 against a 200-day SMA of $71,956; the price was 25.1% above the 200-week average ($66,395).Coinmetrics
6 more facts
  • Glassnode: in the 30 days to Oct 5 about $4.9 billion of new money entered Bitcoin (corporate treasuries, stablecoins, ETFs), while realized cap grew by $12.8 billion — more than three-fifths of the increase came from long-time holders selling at high prices.Kucoin
  • On the first day of a close above $85,000, about 86% of coins arriving at exchanges were sent by short-term holders in profit — a one-year high. Their average entry price was $78,250 as of Oct 7 per CryptoQuant and $73,845 as of Oct 4 per BGeometrics: the cohort is still 6⁠–⁠12% in the black.Kucoin
  • Santiment: realized profit during the week reached $1.03 billion in a single day — the second-highest reading of 2026 after the $1.04 billion peak; profit-taking, not panic, was behind the pullback from $87,000.Crypto
  • Stablecoins: $312.8 billion, −0.29% on the week, +0.85% ($2.64 billion) over 30 days — supply has stalled for a second day, with no fresh money entering crypto yet.Defillama
  • The CoinLab market temperature stood at 36 out of 100 — unchanged for a fourth straight day (it was 42 on Oct 6): Pi Cycle 0.46 — a top signal is far away; funding and the position relative to the 200-week average pull the score down, the greed index pulls it up.CoinLab
  • The quantum theme stays in the background: as of Oct 9 Glassnode counted about 6.26 million BTC on addresses with already-exposed public keys — a long-term risk, not a price driver for the day.Yahoo Finance

7Mining

  • Hashrate per mempool.space's estimate 1,016 EH/s (the daily estimate is jumpy: 982 EH/s yesterday), difficulty 132.72 T, block height 970,873.mempool.space
  • The retarget is expected Oct 16: 58.4% of the epoch done, 839 blocks remaining, estimate +3.2% (yesterday +3.6%) — blocks are coming in faster than the 10-minute target. The last adjustment, on Oct 3, was almost flat (−0.03%).mempool.space
  • Fees: 3 sat/vB for the next block and 1 sat/vB for an hour — the mempool is nearly empty, and miner income comes down to the 3.125 BTC block subsidy.mempool.space
3 more facts
  • Difficulty is roughly 12% below a year ago (150.84 T): some of the capacity switched off after the summer price low never came back, and the peak hashrate of about 1,110 EH/s dates to November 2025.Coincentral
  • MARA — the third-largest public holder (35,303 BTC) — moved 996 BTC to Galaxy Digital and is gradually trimming its stack: since February it has shrunk from 53,822 BTC amid a pivot to AI infrastructure.CoinDesk
  • 79,127 blocks remain until the halving, with the date estimated at Apr 12, 2028.mempool.space

8Macro

  • Treasury yields at the Oct 9 close: 2-year 4.80% (+5 bp), 10-year 5.24% (+2 bp); −3 and −4 bp on the week. The Treasury market is closed Monday, Oct 12 (Columbus Day); stock exchanges are open.Treasury
  • US stocks on Oct 9: S&P 500 7,812 (+0.6% on the day, +1.2% on the week), Nasdaq 27,366 (+0.6%), VIX 14.8 (−3.7%) — risk assets at their highs, with Bitcoin not following.Yahoo Finance
  • Gold $4,216 (+1.4% on the day, +1.3% on the week), DXY 102.21 (+0.1%, +0.3% on the week): safe havens and the dollar rising together — usually a poor backdrop for Bitcoin.Yahoo Finance
7 more facts
  • Oil: WTI $91.85 (+0.4% on the day), Brent $104.43 at the Oct 9 close — over the week 11 tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, Hurricane Isaias shut more than 60% of Gulf of Mexico output, and the US Treasury issued a license for Russian diesel deliveries (about 22.5 million barrels).Trading Economics
  • The Fed funds rate is 3.75⁠–⁠4.00% after the Sep 16 hike. Polymarket for the Oct 27⁠–⁠28 meeting: no change 83.5%, a 25 bp hike 15.5%; for December (Dec 8⁠–⁠9) a hike 74.5%, a pause 22.5%. CME FedWatch as of Oct 9 put about 19% on an October hike.Polymarket
  • A survey of 14 brokers: 13 expect a pause in October and only BofA a hike; Barclays believes the Fed will defer the move to December, though inflation risks are skewed to the upside.Admiralmarkets
  • September CPI is due Wednesday, Oct 14, at 8:30 AM ET: consensus 3.7% y/y versus 3.4% in August (Cleveland Fed nowcast 3.60% and +0.53% m/m), core inflation 2.4% y/y and +0.2% m/m. A core print of 0.3% or higher would be read by the market as a hike signal.Admiralmarkets
  • Thursday, Oct 15: PPI, retail sales and jobless claims; Wednesday, Oct 14, at 2:00 PM ET — the Fed's Beige Book. Fed speakers before the blackout period starting Oct 17: Hammack Oct 12; Waller, Barkin and Collins Oct 13; Bowman Oct 14; Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Oct 15.Federal Reserve
  • Earnings season: on Tuesday, Oct 13, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo report, on Wednesday — Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and BlackRock; JPMorgan is expected to post EPS of $5.90 (+16.4%) on revenue of $51.3 billion.CNBC
  • The Michigan consumer sentiment index for October fell to 46.3, with the current conditions gauge at 44.7 — the lowest in the survey's history; one-year inflation expectations 4.7%. A weak consumer alongside high inflation is the worst combination for the Fed.Umich

9Regulation and events

  • Trump confirmed the US will not strike Iran before the Nov 3 elections, with the blockade and sanctions remaining in place; Polymarket puts the odds that the ceasefire holds through the elections at 75%.Polymarket
  • Yemen: the Houthis hit Riyadh's airport with cruise missiles, and Saudi Arabia carried out about 77 air strikes on Yemen in a day; Pakistan and Turkey said they were ready to send troops to defend the kingdom. Gulf–Asia tanker rates reached $1.4 million a day.Substack
  • On Oct 9 the CFTC proposed folding event contracts (sports, politics, weather) into swaps regulation — a response to state lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket; comments are open for 30 days. Kraken's parent company backed the CFTC's plan to regulate the spot crypto market without Congress.CoinDesk
6 more facts
  • In parallel, since Oct 5 the CFTC has been collecting comments on its Regulation CTX and CAM rules for retail crypto trades (60 days), while the SEC proposed 'Regulation Crypto Assets' and new custody rules for funds and advisers.Bakerbotts
  • House committee chair French Hill: agency rules are no substitute for permanent legislative authority — the CLARITY Act is stuck in the Senate, which returns to work Nov 9; hopes rest on the post-election lame-duck session.Cointelegraph
  • Ledger is investigating the loss of funds by customers who bought devices through reseller CryptoBilis (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines): losses are estimated at $72⁠–⁠93 million, no breach of Ledger's own systems has been confirmed, and buyers of the past 90 days are advised to move funds to a new seed.Bitcoin News Digest
  • On Oct 10 the XRP Ledger patched a decade-old bug that allowed XRP to be created out of nothing; DWF Labs affiliates are seeking $141 million from BitGo over a breach of a token lockup; Robinhood Chain lost more than 40% of its transactions.CoinDesk
  • A darknet market operator received 40 years and forfeited 1,230 BTC ($101 million); the New York attorney general secured up to $35 million and a lifetime crypto ban from Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky; Thailand allows local Bitcoin and Ether ETFs from Oct 16.CoinDesk
  • Calendar: Oct 11 at 4:00 AM ET — expiry of 3,385 BTC, at 12:00 PM ET — settlement of the Polymarket ladder, at 8:00 PM ET Sunday — the weekly close; Oct 12 — Columbus Day; Oct 13 — banks and Fed speakers; Oct 14 — CPI; Oct 16 — expiry of 15,049 BTC and the retarget; Oct 27⁠–⁠28 — the Fed; Oct 30 — expiry of 140,885 BTC; Nov 3 — US elections.Deribit

Bitcoin fractals: what today’s chart looks like

We take the latest 4-hour Bitcoin candles and search the entire history since 2017 for stretches of the same shape, including ones that played out faster or slower. Then we look at what happened next. This is statistics of similar situations, not a prediction.

2 weeks: Closest matches in history
2021-09-10 — 2021-09-23: then -4.0%, after +19.9%
2019-01-02 — 2019-01-13: then -6.1%, after -1.7%
2018-08-28 — 2018-09-08: then -8.9%, after -1.7%
50 days: Closest matches in history
2023-05-09 — 2023-07-22: then +7.8%, after -7.5%
2023-01-18 — 2023-04-27: then +38.6%, after -1.4%
2025-06-26 — 2025-07-20: then +8.7%, after +1.5%
6 months: Closest matches in history
2018-09-17 — 2019-06-15: then +38.1%, after -9.6%
2025-01-18 — 2025-06-01: then +2.0%, after +6.0%
2022-10-06 — 2023-02-18: then +21.1%, after +24.9%

Bitcoin market data

Live data from Binance, CoinGecko, Deribit, mempool.space, alternative.me and Yahoo Finance. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Market

Market cap
$1.68T
dominance 59.6%, total market $2.81T
24h spot volume, Binance
$609.60M
7,316 BTC
Circulating supply
20,096,787 BTC
95.7% of 21M
Weekly high / low
$86,999 / $80,394
30-day $87,396 / $74,968

Technicals

MACD histogram (1D)
-523
line 908, signal 1,431
EMA 20 / 50 / 200
$83,272
$80,043 / $75,586
50-week moving average
$77,148
price above: bull phase

Derivatives and options

Long / short, Binance
1.48
longs 59.7%, top traders 1.54
Taker buy / sell
0.97
above 1: buyers more aggressive
Open interest, 7d
-8.4%
now 92,231 BTC
Put / call by open interest
0.58
options worth $31.23B
DVOL volatility
37.5
a week ago 35.4
Next big expiry, Deribit
Oct 16
15,119 BTC, max pain $83,000, put/call 1.48

Bitcoin network

Hashrate
1,007 EH/s
difficulty 132.7 T
Next difficulty adjustment
+4.2%
around October 16, 2026, 725 blocks left
Transaction fee
1 sat/vB
block 970,987, 79,013 blocks to halving

Macro

US dollar index DXY
102.21
day +0.1%, week +0.3%
UST 10Y yield
5.24%
day +2 bp, week -4 bp (U.S. Treasury, October 9, 2026)
UST 2Y yield
4.80%
day +5 bp, week -3 bp (U.S. Treasury, October 9, 2026)
Gold
$4,216
day +1.4%, week +1.3%
WTI crude
$91.85
day +0.4%, week +0.8%
S&P 500
7,812
day +0.6%, week +1.2%
Nasdaq
27,366
day +0.6%, week +0.6%
VIX
14.8
day -3.7%, week -3.1%

Forecast accuracy

Every morning the scenarios are recorded; after the UTC daily close we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

Days with a forecast
5
Base case came true
80%
the daily close landed inside the most likely scenario’s range
At least one scenario right
100%
the close landed inside one of the three ranges
DayMorning priceCloseBase caseCame trueHit
October 10, 2026$82,669$82,988 (+0.4%) Sideways, 55%Sidewaysyes
October 9, 2026$82,374$82,636 (+1.1%) Sideways, 48%Sidewaysyes
October 8, 2026$82,927$81,754 (-1.9%) Sideways, 47%Pullbackno
October 7, 2026$84,194$83,322 (-2.6%) Sideways, 50%Sidewaysyes
October 6, 2026$85,674$85,550 (-0.2%) Sideways, 60%Sidewaysyes

Bitcoin today: frequently asked questions

What is the Bitcoin price today?

As of Oct 11, 6:00 PM ET, Bitcoin trades at $83,529: +0.6% over 24 hours, -3.5% over 7 days and +8.2% over 30 days. It is 33.8% below its all-time high of $126,080 (October 6, 2025). The price on this page refreshes every 15 minutes from Binance.

What is the Bitcoin price prediction for today?

The base case for October 11, 2026 is sideways within $82,300–$84,000, with 55% probability. Other scenarios: pullback $80,400–$82,300 (22%); breakout $84,000–$85,500 (23%). Nearest resistance $83,230, $83,530, $84,300, support $82,500, $81,600, $80,400. This is not investment advice.

What do Bitcoin fractals show?

Over the last 50 days Bitcoin moved +5.8%. Of the 6 most similar stretches in history since 2017, 4 continued higher, with a median move of +1.3% afterwards. Fractals show statistics of similar situations, not a guarantee.

Where does the data come from and how often is the brief updated?

Numbers come from Binance, CoinGecko, Deribit, mempool.space, alternative.me and Yahoo Finance every 15 minutes. A daily brief with 75 items and a forecast is published every morning, and every item links to its source. Forecast accuracy is checked after each daily close.

Brief archive

October 11, 2026October 10, 2026October 9, 2026October 8, 2026October 7, 2026October 6, 2026