BTC$81,583
ETH$2,413
BNB$728.24
XRP$1.33
SOL$104.52
TRX$0.3326
HYPE$80.96
ZEC$1,133
DOGE$0.0817
XMR$553.20
1Price and market
- As of 1:30 AM ET Bitcoin traded at $83,610, down 0.1% over 24 hours within an $82,973–84,168 range. The swing narrowed to 1.4% from 4% a day earlier: the market froze ahead of the inflation data.Binance
- The Oct 13 daily candle closed at $83,169 (+1.6%) after opening at $81,850, with a low of $81,034 and a high of $84,168: Tuesday fully bought back Monday's 2.3% drop.Binance
- Overnight on Oct 13 stop orders knocked the price down to $81,000, right at the 50-day moving average, after which buyers lifted it to $83,700; by evening BTC was trading in a narrow band near $83,000.CoinDesk
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- Over 7 days the price is up 0.3% (range $80,394–84,352) and up 6.9% over 30 days (range $74,968–87,395): for a second week it has held within the $80,400–87,400 corridor.Binance
- Binance BTC/USDT spot volume over 24 hours was 13,391 BTC (about $1.12 billion), low for a day with a 3% swing: large players are waiting for the data.Binance
- Bitcoin's market cap is $1.68 trillion with 59.2% dominance; the whole crypto market is $2.83 trillion, down 2.7% in 24 hours: altcoins fell noticeably harder than Bitcoin on Tuesday.CoinGecko
- The price is 33.8% short of the $126,080 all-time high (Oct 6, 2025); over the year Bitcoin is down 26.3%.CoinGecko
- The Coinbase premium to Binance is near zero (+0.006%, ~$5): US buyers are not overpaying for BTC, but they are not dumping it either.Coinbase
2Technical analysis
- The daily RSI(14) is 53.5, mid-scale: no momentum either up or down, and far from overbought (70) or oversold (30).Binance
- MACD at 614 is below the 1,051 signal line with a −438 histogram: daily momentum is fading, but both lines are above zero, so the trend is not broken yet.Binance
- The price is above all key moving averages: EMA20 $83,203, EMA50 $80,375, EMA200 $75,856. The overnight plunge on Oct 13 stopped above the EMA50, and the EMA20 became the nearest support.Binance
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- The 50-week moving average is $76,614; the golden cross (50-day above 200-day) occurred on Sep 14 and remains in force: the medium-term trend is up.Binance
- Resistance at $84,168–84,352 (daily and weekly highs), $85,000 and $87,400 (30-day high); support at $83,000–83,200 (EMA20 and weekly options max pain), $81,000 and $80,400 (weekly low near the EMA50).Binance
- Fractals: of 6 similar two-week stretches in history, 4 were followed by a rise the next week (median +2.0%); on the 50-day window it is also 4 of 6 (median +10% over a 25-day horizon): history leans slightly toward upside.CoinLab
- The expected weekly move implied by 7-day implied volatility of 32% is about ±4.4%: a $79,750–87,150 corridor from a price of $83,450.Co
3Derivatives
- Over Oct 13 about $803 million was liquidated across 10 exchanges, $694 million (86%) of it longs; BTC accounted for $181 million and ETH for $178 million. The largest single liquidation was a $9.65 million BTC long on Binance near $81,700.CoinDesk
- The picture flipped with the rebound: in the last 4 hours covered by that report $74 million was liquidated, and 79% of it was already shorts as BTC climbed back above $83,000.CoinDesk
- Binance BTC liquidation flow (lower-bound estimate) over 24 hours to the morning of Oct 14: shorts $5.55 million versus longs $3.10 million; the largest was a 9.6 BTC short ($803K) near $83,726.Binance
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- Open interest in Binance BTC futures is 91,956 BTC ($7.69 billion): down 1.0% over 24 hours and 5.2% over the week. Leverage keeps unwinding, and the market is deleveraged ahead of CPI.Binance
- Binance funding is −0.0011% per 8 hours (−1.2% annualized) versus a 30-day average of +0.0036%; Bybit +4.8%, OKX +3.5%, Hyperliquid +7.5% annualized: there is no long skew, and on Binance shorts are even paying.CoinGlass
- 56.3% of Binance accounts are long (ratio 1.29), 1.52 among top traders; taker buys and sells are balanced (0.996). The CoinLab squeeze index is 50 out of 100, neutral.Binance
- Aggregate open interest in BTC perpetual futures is about $29.3 billion, down 1.9% over the week, with average funding at 5.6% annualized (data as of Oct 12).Co
4Options
- Open interest in BTC options on Deribit is 385,088 BTC ($32.2 billion), put/call 0.61: overall there are noticeably more calls than puts.Deribit
- The DVOL volatility index is 38.1 versus 36.1 a week ago: expected volatility rose ahead of CPI but remains low by this year's standards.Deribit
- Today at 08:00 UTC 1,989 BTC expire (max pain $83,000); on Friday, Oct 16, 16,615 BTC with max pain at $83,000 and put/call 1.40; on Oct 23, 10,909 BTC, also $83,000: the weekly series pull the price toward $83,000.Deribit
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- The Friday Oct 16 series holds about $451 million in puts: $188 million at the $80,000 strike, $162 million at $78,000, $101 million at $76,000; calls include $94 million at $90,000 and $70 million at $87,000. Downside hedges are clustered below $80,000.Co
- The 7-day 25-delta skew has flipped toward puts: −2.4 versus +1.98 a week earlier. Glassnode sees the same: in the week to Oct 11 skew rose from 2.1% to 4.46% in favor of protection.Glassnode
- The main expiry of the month is Oct 30: 144,482 BTC, about 35% of all Deribit open interest, max pain $79,000, put/call 0.49; calls at $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000 together are worth about $4.5 billion.Crypto Briefing
5ETFs and institutions
- On Oct 13 US spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to inflows: +$175.6 million, $103.1 million of it into Fidelity's FBTC. A day earlier, on Oct 12, IBIT saw a $65.4 million outflow.Crypto Briefing
- Cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs since January 2024 are $57.68 billion, with fund assets of about $100.8–106 billion depending on the estimate (about 6.3% of Bitcoin's market cap).Crypto Briefing
- Ether ETFs took in $24.8 million on Oct 13, two-thirds of it into the Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini Trust ($16.7 million); cumulative inflows are $13.16 billion. It is the first inflow after a $542 million outflow in the week of Oct 5–9.Crypto Briefing
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- According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin ETFs are back in positive territory year to date: about +2,300 BTC (~$1.5 billion) versus an outflow of ~83,000 BTC in the first half of the year. According to Bitwise, the funds took in about $6 billion in Q3.Panews
- Strive bought 3,311 BTC for ~$280 million at an average of ~$84,500 over Oct 5–9, its largest purchase since January; the company holds 32,773 BTC. It plans to raise another $500 million through a new SATS preferred issue with a 15% dividend.The Block
- Strategy bought just 250 BTC over Oct 5–11 at an average of $86,194, its smallest purchase of 2026; the company holds 848,250 BTC at an average of $75,444. In parallel it repurchased $1.65 billion of STRC preferred stock by Oct 11.CoinDesk
- Metaplanet (44,000 BTC) is issuing ~$328.5 million in convertible bonds: $149.4 million will go toward repaying BTC-backed loans, which reached 17.7% of the value of its bitcoin against its own 10% limit.CoinDesk
- In total, 180 public companies hold 1.30 million BTC ($108.7 billion, 6.2% of supply); the leaders are Strategy, Metaplanet (44,000) and Twenty One Capital (43,514).CoinGecko
6Sentiment and on-chain
- The Fear & Greed Index is 62 ("greed") versus 57 yesterday and 71 a week ago: sentiment has recovered slightly from its lowest level since Sep 18; the yearly average is 30.alternative.me
- MVRV is 1.54 as of Oct 13, the 42nd percentile of its history: the average holder is up 54%, far from the overheated zone (above 3).Coinmetrics
- The CoinLab "market temperature" is 38 out of 100, unchanged for a fourth day: cycle indicators point to mid-cycle rather than a late phase.CoinLab
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- The Mayer Multiple is 1.16 (price versus the $72,167 200-day average), the price is 25.5% above the $66,631 200-week average, and Pi Cycle is 0.47, far from a cycle-top signal (1.0).Coinmetrics
- The short-term holder cost basis is $74,327 (data as of Oct 7): the market is about 12% above it, so new buyers are in profit on average.Bitcoin-data
- Whales (excluding exchanges and pools) hold 3.03 million BTC, the most since Nov 21, 2025, and the 30-day accumulation pace is the highest since February. CryptoQuant calls the phase an early bull market with support at the 365-day average near $80,000.Panews
- A whale that bought 4,582 BTC in March 2020 (~$40.8 million at the time) moved the coins, worth ~$377.6 million, to five new addresses on Oct 12 for the first time in over six years; they have not reached exchanges so far.The Block
- According to Glassnode, in the week to Oct 11 the share of supply in profit fell from 74.5% to 71.4%, NUPL from 13.0% to 11.1%, and the realized profit-to-loss ratio from 1.5 to 1.0: sellers are no longer taking profits.Glassnode
- Spot buy/sell delta (CVD) for the same week turned negative at −$90.7 million, and −$681.8 million on futures: selling pressure came mainly through derivatives.Glassnode
- Stablecoin supply is $312.9 billion: down 0.5% over the week but up 0.9% (+$2.7 billion) over 30 days. No fresh money entered crypto during the week.Defillama
7Mining
- Network hashrate is about 1,001 EH/s, difficulty 132.72 T. 82.2% of the epoch is complete, with 358 blocks until the adjustment.mempool.space
- The difficulty adjustment is expected on Oct 16 with a rise of about +5.4%; the previous adjustment was almost flat (−0.03%). For miners this means a squeeze on revenue per unit of hashpower.mempool.space
- Fees are minimal: 2 sat/vB for fast confirmation and 1 sat/vB for within an hour. The network is uncongested, and on-chain demand for transfers is low.mempool.space
3 more facts
- On Nov 10 at 07:00 UTC Binance is shutting down Binance Pool, cloud mining, Pool Savings and its transaction accelerator: miners will have to move their hardware to other pools.The Block
- Block height is 971,354; 78,646 blocks remain until the next halving, estimated for Apr 12, 2028.mempool.space
- Miner Cipher Digital is placing $850 million of 0% convertible bonds due 2032; its shares were down 13% premarket. Miners keep borrowing to build out AI sites.CoinDesk
8Macro
- New York Fed President John Williams on Oct 13 allowed for "one more hike this year" but sees no need to raise rates in 2027. The dollar weakened, and Bitcoin rose toward $83,900 by the morning of Oct 14.CoinDesk
- The Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% in September. Polymarket gives 80.5% odds of a pause on Oct 28 and 19.5% of a hike; for December, 75.5% for a 25 bp hike.Polymarket
- The 10-year UST yield was 5.21% (−3 bp on the day, −10 bp over five days) and the 2-year 4.79% (−1 bp) as of Oct 13: rates are easing slightly but remain the main pressure on risk assets.Treasury
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- The DXY dollar index is 102.10: −0.08% on the day and −0.13% over five days, with the dollar weakening after Williams' remarks.Yahoo Finance
- Brent closed Oct 13 at $105.69 (−0.9%) and WTI at $94.14 (+0.4%, a fifth day of gains); by the morning of Oct 14 Brent was back near $106 on attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.Trading Economics
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,805 (−0.02%), the Nasdaq at 27,204 (−0.15%, −1.4% over five days), VIX 15.27. On the morning of Oct 14 S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%.Yahoo Finance
- Bank earnings season got off to a cool start: on Oct 13 Citigroup fell 5.3% and Wells Fargo 2.6%; JPMorgan revenue was $50.9 billion (+8%). Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report today before the open.Benzinga
- Asia rebounded: the MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 0.7%, and Samsung and SK Hynix broke a five-day losing streak. ASML reports today and TSMC on Thursday.CoinDesk
- Gold is at $4,185 (+0.2% on the day, +1.1% over five days): the safe-haven asset is holding near its highs amid Middle East tensions.Yahoo Finance
9Regulation and events
- The key event of the day is the September US CPI today at 8:30 AM ET: +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y are expected (versus 0.4% and 3.4%), core +0.2% m/m and 2.5%. A hot core print would strengthen bets on a Fed hike.CoinDesk
- On Thursday, Oct 15, PPI (+0.5% m/m expected) and retail sales (+0.3% m/m) are released, along with weekly jobless claims.Newsquawk
- The SEC is down to two of five commissioners, Chair Paul Atkins and Mark Uyeda, after Hester Peirce's departure; a new quorum rule in effect since Oct 2 allows decisions even with this lineup. The CFTC's only member is Chair Michael Selig.Cointelegraph
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- The comment period on the SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets ends Oct 20, and on the proposal for crypto custody by investment advisers on Dec 7. The CLARITY Act is stalled in the Senate, and regulators are moving ahead without it.Cointelegraph
- Ledger confirmed a hardware implant in devices sold through the reseller CryptoBilis; MediaMarkt suspended sales in Europe, and Trezor is cutting its reseller network from Jan 1, 2027.The Block
- The UK High Court ruled that claims over ~$5 billion in seized bitcoin are governed by Chinese law, which will decide the fate of one of the largest government-held BTC stashes.The Block
- By the morning of Oct 14 altcoins were recovering Tuesday's drop: ETH +2% to ~$2,520, SOL and DOGE +2.5%, ZEC +7% to ~$1,270; Solana scheduled its Alpenglow upgrade for Oct 21.CoinDesk
- Polymarket: the median BTC price for 12:00 PM ET on Oct 15 is $83,537, half of the bets fall between $82,317 and $85,000, and the odds of a price above the current level are 48.5%. Our base-case sideways range of $82,000–85,000 nearly matches the market.Polymarket
- Polymarket for October: 80% odds of touching $85,000, 51.5% for $87,500, 32.5% for $90,000; on the downside, 55.5% for $80,000 and 30.5% for $77,500. The market expects a break out of the range, but with no clear direction.Polymarket